Earl Weaver Baseball League

Admiral Draft History

November 10th, 2008 by Admirals GM

When I took over the organization in 1990, one of Washington's most obvious weaknesses was a horrible farm system.  A big question I had going in was, how easy is it for a human to fix this?  (1) So much of minor league development seems to be a matter of luck, and therefore out of our real control.  (2) In fact, when I draft, I spend relatively little time thinking about each pick.  I'm not, for instance, carefully looking at each player's psychological profile, and spending 20 minutes each round to pick the best possible player.  I'm spending more like 30 seconds.  So, I was a little concerned about whether I could make a difference.

 

Well, our first draft of 1991 is now 2 years old, which is enough time to start to see the results.  So far, I'm surprised to find that things are looking pretty good.

 

Start with our top pick that year, SS Jose Garcia.  Garcia has alerady made it to the majors, and is our starting shortstop in this, his rookie year.  He's seen rookie highs and lows: he batted around .220 in April and May, but has followed that up by hitting around .335 in June and July.  He's presently ranked as the 11th best SS in baseball.  Even if Garcia were to pull an Angel Rosa and die tomorrow, he would already rank as our organization's best first round draft pick since 1974!  This judgment isn't based on potential, it's based on actual major league accomplishment, as measured by VORP.  Right now, Garcia's career VORP is a little above 12.  That's okay for so early in his career, but far from spectacular.  Well, no other first round draft pick has a higher career VORP since 1974.  In fact, during that time, no other first round pick has a positive career VORP.  Most of our picks never made it to the majors, while those who did put up negative VORPs (like Kevin Goff and Norberto Aviles).  So Jose Garcia by himself puts the 1991 draft well ahead of most Washington Admiral drafts in their entire history.

 

Incidentally, even if you go prior to 1974, Garcia should finish the year with a higher career VORP than any first round pick of ours ever, with the one exception of 1973 draftee Charles Alston, a speedy shortstop on our early championship teams who had a career VORP of 62.8 (in, like, 4 seasons as a starter).  If Garcia has even a mediocre career, he should pass Alston.

 

Moving on.  Including Garcia, we've already had 4 members of the 1991 draft class spend time with our major league team: Garcia, 2nd round pick MR Francisco Perez, 6th round pick MR Russell Ramsey, and 14th round pick MR Leonard Crockett.  (This tells you that RPs are able to shoot up the farm system relatively quickly.)  By comparison, just one member of our 1990 draft has played in the majors for us (LF Jose Rivera); 0 members of the 1989 draft have made it yet; 4 members of the 1988 draft (Kevin Goff, All Star Tyrone "Skull Crusher" Taylor, now with New York, Mark Tinker and Jim Smith); 1 member of the 1987 draft (our present closer, Cory Davidson); 3 members of the 1986 class (Bill Webb, now washed up; Cliff Hunter, now with San Antonio; and Ruben Luna).  So already, in terms of producing major leaguers, the 1991 draft has outperformed all our immediately preceding drafts but one, the 1988 class.  And in terms of producing quality (as measured by career VORP), it has already surpassed that 1988 class.

 

What's more, the 1991 class also includes some excellent prospects still in the minors.  In particular, there's 11 point pitcher Roberto Hernandez, taken as a starter but now projecting to be a closer (given his 4 fatigue).  Hernandez is almost ready in AAA, and the only question now is whether we bring him up for the stretch run or wait until the start of 1994.  He could be our closer of the future.  And then there's Karl Fox, who's looking like he might be the best of all.  Already ranked as the #13 prospect in baseball prior to the season, he's probably bound for a higher rating next year given that his potential has gone up this year.  Already in AAA, Fox could play for us next year, or 1995 at the latest.

 

In addition, by my count the draft has at least 5 more players who presently project to be marginal major leaguers (and in 2 cases, real contributors, who could possibly start).  So best case scenario, we could get 11 major leaguers out of that draft.  Probably won't happen, but 8 or so could be a reality.

 

When I took over the job, the Admirals had a minor league system ranked around 23 or so by Baseball America.  Presently, we're ranked #5, largely on the strength of Garcia and Fox.  I tend to think we're overrated a bit, and don't have near the depth of other minor league systems.  But, there's been improvement for sure; that much is undoubtable.

 

Now, the 1991 draft might be mostly luck.  Looking at my 1992 picks, I can already tell you that they won't be near as strong, and that I won't be able to give them nearly as good a write-up one (Sim) year from now.  That's kind of ironic, given that I was drafting like 22nd in 1991 and like 4th in 1992; tells you that where you pick doesn't matter all that much.  But it'll be interesting to see if human G.M.s can out-draft computer G.M.s, in addition to being able to out-trade and out-spend them (on free agents).

Gelling Effect

November 5th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Again, the gelling effect theory says that in EWB, a team which has just made a bunch of major additions will underperform, for the first year (or so).  But, after that transition period, once the team has "gelled," they will play up to their talent below.

 

Omaha and El Paso arguably help support the theory, this year.  El Paso signed all their big free agents after 1991.  But, according to the theory, 1992 was too soon for them to play up to their potential.  They needed to "gell" first.  That has happened at this point, and so in 1993 they are playing up to their talent level.  Similarly, Omaha made bigger additions prior to 1992 than they did this past offseason.  (With Omaha, you have to remember it's all relative.  Trading away Aaron Ellis and signing Gerald Lewis qualifies as a "quiet" offseason, by their standards.)  Omaha in 1992 hadn't "gelled" yet, and so they performed well below their talent level.  At this point they have gelled, and so they are playing up to their talent level.

 

Carolina seems to provide further confirmation.  The Colonials added a slew of free agents prior to 1993.  According to the theory, they should underperform this season.  So far, they certainly have done that.  Next, the theory predicts that they should improve significantly in 1994, after they've gelled.  We'll have to wait and see on that.

 

I should say, I'm not sure I really believe in the theory.  Might all be just a coincidence, at this point.  (I should note, though, that there are other confirming bits of evidence for the theory, including the Austin Marshalls from 1991 to 1992.)

 

But, if the theory is right, there is strong incentive for maintaining team stability.  As long as things are jumbled up, with lots of new additions, a team is likely to underperform.

Carolina Offense...

November 3rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Has some pretty puzzling stats.  In fact, based on a casual glance, I have to say I have a really hard time understanding how their offense works.  Here's why...

 

They are 1st in Runs Scored in the AL.  That doesn't seem too surprising by itself -- they have Rafael Valentin, and Kenneth Brown, and German Ortiz, and lots of good hitters.  But, it does seem kind of surprising given some of their other rankings...

 

They are 13th in batting average, at .248.  You might think, well, that's kind of surprising, but not absolutely shocking.  Maybe they walk a lot, which makes up for the low BA.  Well, not exactly....

 

Although they are 1st in walks with 281, they are still 11th in OBP at .331.  So yes, they do walk a lot.  But, you would think, not enough to make up for their horrible BA, given that their OBP is still in the bottom third of the league (11th).  The walks help, to be sure.  But given that the OBP is still so low, you wouldn't expect them to be #1 in runs.

 

Okay, maybe even if Carolina has a low BA and OBP, the hits they do get count for a lot.  After all, they have a bunch of sluggers on their team.  Maybe they're just slugging their way to their runs.  There's some truth in this, but it's not that simple...

 

They are 8th in SLUG at .407.  Obviously, 8th in SLUG is better than 13th in BA or 11th in OBP.  But again, we're talking about the #1 offense in the league.  (A) I would assume that the #1 offense would be better than 8th in slugging, and (B) I would especially expect that they would be way better than 8th, once you stipulate that they're so bad in OBP and BA.  In other words, once you tell me that they're #1 in runs but horrible in BA and OBP, my guess would've been that they must be off the charts in SLUG, not #8.  Now, even their slugging rating is a bit mysterious, given the following...

 

They are #1 in HR, and #5 in Extra Base Hits.  This is really weird.  I mean, SLUG depends largely on the Home Runs and Extra Base Hits you get.  If you're #1 in HR and #5 in EBH, then you should be in the top third of the league or so in SLUG.  But Carolina isn't.  Even aside from the question of how they score the runs they do, this is strange.

 

Finally, are their other strengths to the Carolina offense that maybe we're missing?  Doesn't look like it...

 

They are #14 in Ks and #12 in SBs.  So, it's not like they're manufactoring runs via stolen bases and hitting runners over.

 

So again, I don't fully understand how Carolina ends up scoring as many runs as they do, or even how their statistics cohere together in any sort of intelligible way.  To see a contrast case, compare Omaha.  The Wolverines are #3 in Runs Scored.  In addition, they they are #1 in BA, #1 in OBP, #3 in SLUG, #4 in HR, and #4 in SB.  There is something that they are bad at: they are only #12 in BB.  But, given their other high ratings, it's easy to see how they could have the third best offense.  I feel like I "get" the Omaha offense, I understand how they "work."  They don't walk much, but they make up for it with lots of hits, including home runs, and the occasional steal here and there.

 

I feel like I don't really get how the Carolina offense "works."  Their numbers are too much of a jumbled mess for me to understand.

 

One last thought.  Given the internal incoherence in Carolina's stats, my hunch is that there's a lot of "luck" in their statistical totals right now, and that they won't finish the season with the same sorts of ratings they have right now.  (Analogy: consider a player who right now has 13 HR and 2 Doubles.  That's really hard to do.  As the season goes on, you expect that ratio to change: he will either hit more Doubles (say, he's have 20 HR and 19 Doubles by the end of the year), or he'll hit fewer home runs (say, 14 HR and 10 Doubles).

 

In Carolina's case, I don't know if they've been having "good luck" or "bad luck."  If it's bad luck, the idea would be that Carolina really has an even more potent offense than they seem to have right now, and as the season wears on, their SLUG/OBP/etc. will rise to correspond to their high run total.  If it's good luck, the idea would be that the Carolina offense really isn't all that great, as indicated by their low SLUG/OBP/etc., but they've been fortunate to score runs thus far.  As the season wears on, you should expect their rankin in runs scored to drop, so that it corresponds to their low rankings in other categories.  By the end of the year, they'll be more like #6 in runs scored, not #1.

 

I don't know which it is, but I suspect there's luck involved.

1987: The Year of the Razorback

November 2nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Looking back, 1987 was one of the most remarkable seasons in EWB history.  It's fitting that the World Series that year was won by the Memphis Razorbacks, a truly remarkable team.

 

Back in 1970 when EWB was forming, Memphis was not on anyone's short list to land a franchise.  Rather, the original plan was for there to be a 2nd team in California -- probably San Francisco, although San Diego was also mentioned as a possibility -- and leave the Sunbelt as the 4 team division, giving the Mountain West 5 teams instead.  The problem with this plan was that the old California Baseball League, unlike other regional leagues, was trying to put up a fight.  They refused to bow down to the upstart EWB; they wanted to compete instead.  They had a ton of resources, a huge media market all to themselves, and a storied history -- you'll remember that back in the 1940s, Joe DiMaggio of the San Francisco Seals was the face of baseball.  Anyway, through a series of lawsuits and clever maneuvering involving stadium leases, the California League was able to make things extremely difficult for the Los Angeles Gargoyles franchise, and to completely block a 2nd California team from being added to the EWB.  Now, in the long run the EWB would win this competition: the California League was poorly managed in the early 1970s, and was forced to shut down prior to the 1974 season.  But, their efforts explain why there is no 2nd California team in EWB to this day.

 

Forced to alter their plans at the last minute, EWB was scrambling in late 1969 to figure out where their 30th team was going to play ball the following spring.  Always looking to make a splash in P.R., league executives put in a number of calls to various entertainers and celebrities to see if they would want to head some team of financiers to bring a team to their city.  They landed a coup when on a lark, none other than Elvis Pressley agreed not just to head such a team, but to put all his own money in and buy a franchise outright.  The league wasn't overly thrilled that this would require the franchise to be set up in Memphis, a smallish market, but the publicity which would be attached to having The King as an owner was impossible to resist, and so they gave in.  Looking to get over racial tensions during the tumultuous 1960s, the city of Memphis immediately took to their Razorbacks, and there continues to be an especially close link between these fans and their team.

 

The Razorbacks have made only two playoff appearances in franchise history: 1983 (when they made it to the ALCS) and the 1987 Championship year.  Don't let this fool you, though.  The Razorbacks are a proud franchise, not an Azteca-like laughing stock.  They have generally played around .500 in their history -- except for the last few years (1990-1992), which have been an abomination -- and have a remarkable number of second place finishes.  Specifically, they've finished 2nd 6 separate times, including a 4 year stretch from 1979-1982, and the 1987 season itself, when they got into the playoffs via the Wild Card.  This long run of 2nd place finishes shaped a tragic sensibility in their fan base.  If you were a Razorback supporter at the time, you were convinced that you were doomed to be always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

 

To understand the 1987 Razorbacks, you need to get your mind back into the framework of the 1987 season.  And to do this, you need to get a sense for the ways in which 1987 is continuous with the EWB of today, and the ways in which it's wholly different.  Start with some of the continuities.  For one thing thing, the top 3 batters in the AL that year were faces that are still familiar: at the top was Mike Robinson (then for Portland) at .356, then Luis Carranza at .344, and then Vincent Carter at .343.  The ERA leader list included Carlos Pena, George Banks (just 21, in his first All Star year), Jamie Rees, and Shawn Price.  The NL MVP was Don Kelly while the HR leader was Joe Warren, who socked an EWB record of 62 for Austin (while his teammate Will Lund added another 51 for the last place (!) Marshalls).  The Angel Rosa in the NL went to newcomer Rafeal Valentin, who put up triple-crown-like numbers for Boston; and the Gibson Award winner was Luis Altagracia, who had just signed a free agent deal with St. Louis out of the Mexican League and won the honor without pitching a single game in the minors (he was already 26).  These are all familiar names; 1987 wasn't so long ago.

 

But now, consider the discontinuities.  First, and most significantly, 1987 was the year of the "juiced ball," and offense was way, way up.  The AL league ERA was 4.87, the highest it's ever been.  4 different players reached 50 home runs: Warren with 62, Carlos Perez of Denver with 54, Will Lund with 51, and Michael Long (then with Cleveland) with 50.  Only one starter in the whole AL had an ERA below 3.00 (Carlos Pena), and only 4 had an ERA below 3.60: Pena, George Banks, Shawn Price, and Wolverine Scott Allddritt.  Speaking of Alldritt, this was his Gibson Award winning year for Omaha, going 22-9 with a 3.14 ERA.  There were, though, some worrisome signs in his season: he had a remarkable 17 Complete Games, well more than anyone else in the league, and threw an astonishing 286.1 IP, when no one else had over 260.  So, he worked a lot for a 23-year-old, and it doesn't seem especially surprising in retrospect that he broke down shortly thereafter.

 

In this year of the long ball, two offenses stood out above all others: the Denver Amigos, who averaged 6.4 runs per game and won an EWB-high 103 games, and the Memphis Razorbacks, who averaged 6.2 and made it to the playoffs as a Wild Card.  Here's a run down of the Amigos offensive leaders, together with their stat lines: Vincent Carter .343/30/108 (still slugging away in 1993); Carlos Perez .298/54/154 (now with Carolina, and all washed up); Ben Barnard .327/33/98 (now all washed up and getting paid a ton by Detroit); Len McGinnis .333/21/76 (in just 384 AB, presently an un-signed free agent after spending 1992 with D. C.); Jesus Reyes .326/23/93 (Angel Rosa Award winner in 1987, now with Kansas City and continuing to have success); and Roberto Reyes .291/21/93 (the "quadriplegic" who played sparingly with Washington back in 1990, due to injury problems).  That's a lot of players putting up some gaudy numbers.

 

Memphis was almost as good.  To start off, you had league MVP Martin Diaz patrolling LF and going .314/44/139.  Diaz is a legend in Memphis, a Razorback from his rookie year back in 1982 all the way to today.  Diaz, now 35 (29 back in 1987), is out for all of 1993 with a fractured skull, and there's a lot of discussion among Razorback fans about whether he will be re-signed after the season (at much less than his present $8M price tag) -- their hearts say Yes but their heads say No.

 

If Diaz isn't the greatest Razorback of all time, then that honor must go to second baseman Ivan Quinones.  Quinones was a monster in 1987, going .333/39/139/22 and winning a gold glove, one of 10 in his career, the most all time.  Like Diaz, Quinones was a lifetime Razorback: from his debut in 1976 all the way up to 1992.  Presently sitting out as an un-signed free agent, the best way to get Razorback fans' blood boiling is by even raising the question of whether Quinones deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame once he officially retires.  Of course he does, they'll insist.

 

The Razorbacks had another solid bat in veteran 1B Richie Farrell.  After first making a name for himself with Austin in the early 1980s, Farrell came over to the Razorbacks in a one-sided trade prior to the 1984 season.  In the magical year of 1987, he would his .290/23/75 for the Razorbacks, and give the team a big boost in the playoffs with 5 HR and 18 RBI.  Later in his career, Farrell is known for playing with Kansas City (back in 1990-1991), and then heading over to the Washington Admirals for the end of the 1991 campaign (at which point he retired).

 

At DH, Memphis had the notorious slugger Jose Rodriguez.  Known as much for his strikeouts and low average as for his prolific home runs, Rodriguez batted .245/23/93 in just 469 AB for the team. However, despite being just 26 years of age, 1987 would turn out to be Rodriguez' last productive year, and he never got more than 187 AB a season from then until his retirement just a few months ago (1/1/1993).  Also known for spending time with the Banditos in 1991, Rodriguez never lived up to his extraordinary minor league hype: he hit 74 HR and and 205 RBIs in 1981, in time split between A and AA in the Razorbacks system.  I mean, he had some nice ML years -- 41 HR in 1984, 38 HR in 1985 -- but he never managed to be the second coming of Angel Rosa that fans anticipated.

 

Finally, at SS the Razorbacks had the ever-dependable Kyle Gregg, who went .286/7/63/16.  Ofering substance over style, the Razorbacks loved the gritty Gregg.  To this day, they have a hard time seeing how this could be the same guy who today is living the high life in Detroit, with the 2nd biggest salary in all of baseball.

 

Go back through the Razorbacks' Record Books, and these are the names you'll see.  For instance, the top 4 all time VORP leaders are Diaz, Quinones, Gregg, and Farrell, in that order.  As a franchise, Memphis had the good fortune to have its greatest players in team history all peak around the same time: the mid 1980s.  On the other hand, this largely contributed to the franchise's demise in the early 1990s, as all these players either aged or moved on.

 

On the mound, the 1987 Razorbacks were notable for having probably the worst pitching staff for a World Series winner in EWB history.  Their staff ERA was 5.00, which was high even for the time.  Their nominal ace was Rich Jones, a member of the 1978 Washington Admirals Championship team and a 4th or 5th starter for the Admirals in the early 1980s.  In his first year with Memphis in 1987, Jones posted a 4.08 ERA, which was able to get him a 17-10 record behind the powerful Memphis offense.  No other starter had an ERA below 5.00 (well, that's not quite right: Brandon Hutchins had one of 4.99).  Closing out games, the Razorbacks had Antonio Cruz, still in his prime then (29 years old) but having a comparatively down year (4.09 ERA).  Today, you might know Cruz from his time in the Chicago Samurai bullpen as a set up man.  He had a pretty good career as a closer though with Mempmhis, putting up 387 Saves.  One more notable thing about the Memphis staff: a young rookie named Adam Hamilton made a couple of starts for them during the year, before moving on to Omaha and then Houston.

 

Finally, let's talk playoffs.  It was an interesting field, especially in the AL.  In the Sunbelt Division, Miami won the pennant for the first time in the decade (and what would be the first of 4 straight pennant titles).  The Banditos were filled with very, very young stars with lots of potential: 23-year-old Luis Carranza, 26-year-old Ken Hamilton, 25-year-old Jose Ortiz catching, 21-year-old George Banks, 22-year-old Julio "Punk" Perez, 22-year-old Joe Murphy, and 25-year-old Mauro Medina.  You will rarely ever see a team filled with so much talent in their early and mid 20s.  This made Miami an especially popular team across the country -- think Devil Rays -- and their 96 Wins made them a serious contender.  Not far behind Miami was Memphis, whose 91 wins assured them the Wild Card.  In the Plains Division you had Denver (already described above), whose 103 wins gave them the title by a whopping 24 games over 2nd place Chicago.  (Omaha finished in 3rd at 77-85.)  And finally, in the Mountain West division you had a great 4-way race, where all 4 teams were within 3 games of one another.  After the final day of the season Washington and Las Vegas had identical 85-78 records, and so a one-game play-in game was scheduled, which Washington won.

 

The first round of the AL playoffs were fascinating.  In one series, you had Memphis pitted against Denver, two of the greatest offenses in all of EWB history.  The Razorbacks pulled off the upset, 4-1.  In the other series, you had the youthful, up-and-coming Miami Banditos pitted against the veteran Washington Admirals, who were still being led by 40-year-old Luis Delgado, 38-year-old Forest Thomas, and 33-year-old Brad Robertson.  (At the plate, the Admirals were led by Dave Tyle, Reggie Phillips, George McFarland, and Oliver Cole.)  Age triumphed over youth, and the Admirals took the series in 6 games.

 

.In the ALCS, you had pretty much all of American rooting on the Razorbacks -- everyone was sick of Washington.  Despite falling behind 3 games to 2, Memphis was able to pull of the come back, taking the series in 7.  Memphis, and not Washington, was going to the World Series.  Razorback fans couldn't quite believe it.

 

Once there, the Razorbacks would face the Boston Irish, probably the most talented NL team of the late 1980s.  On their roster they had players like Valentin, Gerald Lewis, and Jordan Tamblyn.  They had a bullpen which included Hall of Famer Mal Collier, Jovan Simic, and Frank "Mounds" Hearn.  Oddsmakers regarded them as the favorites over the Wild Card Razorbacks.  The city of Memphis ended up willing their Razorbacks to the Championship though, and they toppled the Irish in 6 games.

 

In some sense, Memphis has been paying for it ever since.  On the one hand, Memphis seems to be an especially loyal franchise -- as noted above, both Quinones and Diaz have spent their entire careers with the team.  On the other hand, given how good the players on this team were, loyalty was bound to cost money, and it took big contracts to keep Quinones and Diaz.  This made it impossible to keep some of the other key members of the 1987 team, and they eventually had to trade off Richie Farrell and let Kyle Gregg depart via free agency (where, again, he landed an astronomical contract).  After trailing off to 86 wins in 1988 and 88 wins in 1989 -- both years, narrowly failing to miss the playoffs -- the bottom really fell out in 1990, and the Razorbacks could manage just 58 wins against 104 losses.  With their aging nucleus and bloated contracts, things haven't improved much in 1991 or 1992, when they won 69 and 68 games respectively.

 

The Razorbacks have one of the smallest budgets in all of baseball.  Despite having a player payroll of just $25M in 1993, they're still $1.1M over budget.  They should have some money this offseason, as the contract for legend Martin Diaz expires.  But they will need to use their money wisely.  Even if the team isn't playing all that well this year-- they're 28-38 -- the horrible state of the Sunbelt Division leaves them just 4 GB.  Razorback fans will surely take it, given how bleak things had been the last few years.

Re: Frank "Mounds" Hearn

November 1st, 2008 by Banditos GM

I totally agree with the point about the impact on the bullpen's fatigue.  By the way, Hearn's averages 83 pitches per game.  One thing I have insight to is the fatigue level of the pitchers in real time and I can definitely say it effects who the manager chooses to use and their performance.  When a pitcher is fatigued he pitches much worse, obviously. 

Long 15 inning games often have an impact on both teams for the next few games, until their bullpen can get caught up on rest.  That's one reason I like to have some inning eaters.  This year I have Forest Thomas eating some mop up innings and for the last two years Halter has been able to give me good quality multiple inning outings, many time he would go 2.2 or 3 innings in tight spots and do well.  I don't think the Hearn experiment will spawn a bunch of copycats however it will open eyes to new possibilities.

We have an interesting player, Bernard "Reach" Glass, who is phenomenal.  He has Hearn's like potential, he was drafted as a SP but only has 5 endurance.  His official position is still SP but Cal Ripken Sr. has been using him in the bullpen his entire minor league career.  We intend to let him try out the starter role and see how it goes.   This year Glass has yet to give up a run in 23.1 AAA IP and 2.1 AA IP.  Like Justin said regarding Garcia though, 5 and 6 are really different than 3 or 2 in terms of being able to start.

Frank "Mounds" Hearn

October 31st, 2008 by Admirals GM

Frank "Mounds" Hearn was scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, and we had some hope of trying to sign him, possibly as a starter but more likely as a closer.  It won't happen: recently, Hearn signed a three year extension with Boston for just short of $6M per year.

 

The thing I especially wanted to point out, though, was this.  We are now about 2 months thru the season -- more than a third of the way.  During this entire span, Hearn has been a starter for Boston.  He has not missed any time to injury.  He has made 13 starts, and in those 13 starts he has a 2.77 ERA and an exceptional 0.91 WHIP.  That leaves him with a pitcher's VORP which is just outside of the top 5 in the entire NL.

 

So, he's been very, very good as a starter.  And at least so far, using him as a starter hasn't led to any injuries.

 

But, what is his record?  It's 1-1.  That's right, after 13 starts, Hearn has registered just 2 decisions.  That's really kind of amazing.  To have some perspective, Hearn is on pace to go 3-3 over the entire season (actually, it's more like 2.85-2.85), even on the assumption he's healthy and makes all the starts he's supposed to make.  How do you get so few decisions?

 

Part of the problem has to be Boston's bullpen, which is awful.  Their bullpen ERA is 6.10, last in the NL, and compares very poorly to their starters' ERA of 3.86 (4th in the NL).  Now, this point by itself is already an indictment of the Hearn-as-a-starter strategy.  After all, if Hearn were anchoring that bullpen, I would guarantee that their ERA wouldn't be the worst in the league.  But, this criticism doesn't necessarily tell you that any attempt to use Hearn as a starter is a mistake.  Suppose Miami signed him, for instance.  With Miami's great bullpen strength, maybe then it wouldn't be a bad idea to use Hearn as a starter.  Or would it?

 

Well, here is another factor.  Given Hearn's very limited fatigue (3), he just isn't able to go very deep into games at all.  The problem is compounded by his being such a strikeout pitcher: strikeout pitchers put up greater pitch counts, further limiting his ability to go a long time.  Here's the IP and ER in his last 6 starts: 5.1 IP (1 ER); 4.2 IP (1 ER); 5 IP (2 ER); 6.1 IP (2 ER); 6.1 IP (2 ER); 4.2 IP (3 ER).  As you can see, he's generally pitched pretty well: often just 1 ER, and never more than 3.  But, he's barely able to go even 5 IP -- 6.1 IP in a really good game.  Because of this, Hearn doesn't have a single decision over the span, even though he's pitched well just about every time.  Sometimes, the problem is that he just isn't going long enough -- 4.2 IP isn't long enough to even qualify for a W.  Other times, the problem is that even if he qualifies for the W, he has to rely on the bullpen to do just way too much work: even if Hearn goes 5.1 IP with 1 ER, he still requires the bullpen to go the last 3.2 IP.  If you have Boston's horrible bullpen, that's a big problem.  But, even if you had Miami's solid bullpen, that would be pretty taxing.  Everytime thru the rotation, you would know that your guys are going to get pretty fatigued covering for Hearn.

 

In fact, here's a possible theory: maybe the reason Boston's bullpen is struggling so much is precisely because they're being forced to pitch so many innings during Hearn starts, leaving them tired in the following games.  I don't know if this is true, but it's an idea.

 

By the way, I think this problem isn't unique to Hearn.  My own Sergio Garcia is himself a converted closer.  Now, Garcia has more fatigue than Hearn does (6 vs. 3), and because of that he gets more decisions.  But still, he's somewhat limited, and because of that, Garcia has never gotten more than 17 Wins in a season (and he did that only once), even during those years when he was one of the best starters in all of baseball.  When I'm hesitant about re-signing Garcia, his fatigue is a serious factor in my hesitancy.

 

So, my final conclusion is that even if Boston did otherwise have a good bullpen, it would probably be a mistake to use Hearn as a starter.  Or, at least, it wouldn't be as good for you as a team as you might otherwise think, given that he's a 14 point pitcher.  I think this is probably a good thing for the league.  Things would be unrealistic, and cheapaned a bit, if we could all just convert top closers (who generally have 12, 13, or 14 point ratings) into top starters (where top starters are generally more like 11 or 10 point guys, with maybe a few 12 point pitchers). 

Evaluating the 25 Highest Contracts in the Game

October 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here is a run-down ot the 25 highest players in EWB right now, with an assessment of whether their contracts are good or bad for the teams who are paying them.  I think you'll see a surprising number of these contracts look pretty bad.  In ascending order...

 

#25: Francisco Murillo, 1B, Denver.  Getting $7.9M thru 1995.  Contract Grade: C-.  After being a .300/20/90 player for years, Murillo dropped off dramatically last year, the first year of his contract, going .257/11/61.  And he's 33, meaning he'll be 35 when his contract runs out.  He's off to a decent start in 1993 though.

 

#24: German Ortiz, RF, Carolina.  Getting $7.9M thru 1994.  Grade: B+.  It's doubtful that 34-year-old Ortiz will duplicate his MVP year of 1993, but Carolina gets a lot of credit for keeping his contract short.  Even if Ortiz fades -- and he's off to a decent start this year -- Carolina hasn't overly committed themselves.

 

#23: Martin Diaz, RF, Memphis.  Getting $8M thru 1993.  Grade: D.  Diaz, a lifetime Razorback (and one of the key components on their 1987 World Series team), used to be one of the better players in the game.  At this point, though, he's washed up: .245/11/50 last year.  Worse, he's out for all of 1993.  The contract was signed back in 1990, and Diaz has been nowhere near the 23rd best player in the game during its duration.

 

#22: Desmond MacGilp, SP, Las Vegas.  Getting: $8M thru 1993.  Grade: B.  MacGilp, a former Gibson award winner (1986), lost 20 games last year for Las Vegas, but he's still a decent pitcher at age 31.  Projected to be a free agent after the year, I bet he he gets a decent deal this offseason, not too far from his current contract.

 

#21: Ben Barnard, LF, Detroit.  Getting: $8M thru 1994.  Grade: F.  A horrible, horrible deal.  It was originally signed with Denver, back in 1990: 5 years for $40M.  Based on his production up to that point -- he was like .268/22/80 in 1990 -- it already looked like a mistake for the team.  But then Denver traded him to Detroit in exchange for Cruisers' legend Tom Mitchell, and Barnard responded by breaking his kneecap.  With age and injuries, the guy is just a shell of his former self.  He batted .186/0/16 in 1992, and he's hitting just .210 with extensive playing time so far in 1993.

 

#20: Dong-min Kim, 3B, San Antonio.  Getting: $8.1M thru 1993.  Grade: C-.  Would be lower, but for the fact it ends after the year.  This contract always seemed like a bad idea, and it's gotten even worse, as Kim has fallen off.  After batting .245/11/58 in 1992, Kim is off to a .220 start in 1993.  The guy still has a heck of an agent, so who knows, maybe he'll get another over bloated deal this offseason.  Looks like Miami unloaded him at the right time.

 

#19: Correy Dillon, 3B, Austin.  Getting $8.23 thru 1996 (thanks to an extension).  Grade: C+.  Look, Dillon is an alright player -- last year he went .266/15/65.  But he's 35 now and his ratings are starting to fade.  His original contract was supposed to run out after 1993; why Austin agreed to an extension is beyond me.  Fearless prediction: the grade of this contract will drop to D or F by 1995.

 

#18: Cory Bradford, OF, New York.  Getting: $8.2M thru 1994.  Grade: F.  The mind boggles at how good New York could be if they weren't carrying around this atrocity.  Even in his prime, prior to signing this deal, he wasn't that great: he regularly batted .220 with 28 HR or so back in the mid 1980s.  Why New York thought this merited a 5 year $40M contract prior to 1990 is beyond me.  But now, he's dropped far below even that level of production.  His ratings are down to 2-3 contact-power.  It would be unsurprising if New York eventually cuts him and eats the remainder of the deal.

 

#17: Vincent Carter, C, Denver.  Getting $8.4M thru 1994.  Grade: A.  Obviously, one of the best players in the game; perhaps even the best ever.  Things will get more complicated when Denver considers re-signed the mid-30s Carter next year.

 

#16: Kevin Morris, SP, Miami.  Getting $8.5M thru 1995.  Grade: B.  Too early to say, but off to a great start.  Think of the B grade as a default setting.

 

#15: Mike Smith, RF, Cleveland.  Getting $8.5M thru 1993.  Grade: C.  One of the premier power hitters of his era (the 1980s), Smith has dropped off recently with age (he's 35).  He hit like .228/23/80 last year.  Still, he is at least something of a producer, and given that the contract runs out after the year, Cleveland gets a bit of a pass for taking him on via trade. 

 

#14: George Banks, SP, Miami.  Getting $8.5M thru 1993.  Grade: A-.  On the one hand, Banks has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years or so.  On the other hand, he's fading.  Did Banks merit a one year deal worth this much right now?  I mostly give Miami the benefit of doubt, but dock them a half letter grade given Banks' slows start in 1993 (hence the A- instead of straight A).

 

#13: Stephen Caldwell, LF, Detroit.  Getting $8.6M thru 1993.  Grade: F.  You'll notice that this gives Detroit two F contracts (the other was Barnard); at least the Caldwell deal ends after the year.  Caldwell was a solid producer back in his prime, in the mid 1980s: he had 5 contact 4 power then, and was consistently a contender for the batting title with Houston (he won the thing in 1986).  Then Atlanta signed him to a huge 7 year, $55M deal prior to 1987.  In the first several years of the deal, Caldwell continued to be pretty good.  But then, with age and injuries, he started to fade a little in 1989.  After Detroit traded for him in 1991, he really took a nosedive, and his 3-2 ratings have led him to be limited to just 8 pinch hitting at bats this year.  That's a lot to pay a bad pinch hitter.  Again, those 7 year deals almost always are a mistake -- it's so hard for a good player so sustain himself for 7 years.

 

#12: Don Kelly, RF, El Paso.  Getting: $8.5M thru 1995.  Grade: A.  Fact: his ratings are fading a bit -- he'd down to a 4-4 hitter (5-4 potential), off of 5-5 in his prime.  Still, he's one of the best players in the game today.

 

#11: Dan Johnson, 2B, Cincinnati.  Getting: $8.9M thru 1995.  Grade: A-.  Johnson is one of the most overlooked players in the game.  He's also one of the best: went .337/17/84/41 last year, the first of the deal.  The only reason I down grade the deal is that Johnson is about to turn 33, and I worry a little about his age.

 

#10: Michael Bowden, SP, Dallas.  Getting: $8.9M thru 1993.  Grade: A-.  Still one of the best ranked pitchers in the game (12 pts.) at age 35, the contract is downgraded slightly due to the fact that Bowden lost 18 games last year (despite having a 3.38 ERA).  A free agent to be after the season, Bowden should still be able to command top dollar.  In fact, his yearly salary might well go up, even though he'll be 36 next year.

 

#9: Reggie Phillips, 3B, Chicago.  Getting: $9.2M thru 1996.  Grade: C-.  I think the best move that my predecessor in the G.M. office for Washington made was not to re-sign Phillips after 1989.  I mean, don't get me wrong, Phillips is a decent player -- he went .273/17/94 last year, and continues to be ranked among the best 3B in the game.  But does that sort of performance really merit the 7 year, $64M contract he got prior to 1990?  Hardly.  Plus, 1996 is a long ways away still.  There's every reason to think Phillips skills will diminish significantly between now and then, making the contract even worse.

 

#8: Jaime Colon, 3B, Atlanta.  Getting $9.4M thru 1994.  Grade: C+.  Call him Reggie Phillips Jr.  Since we took over back in 1990, Colon has been consistently among the highest paid players in the game (across multiple contracts).  Hard to see why.  He's a decent player, but how much better off would Atlanta be if they had funneled that money elsewhere?  Colon gets graded above Phillips because the deal is shorter.

 

#7: Norman Hopkins, 3B, Austin.  Getting: $9.6M thru 1993.  Grade: B-.  Here is what we're learning: if you are a decent third baseman, you can earn a ton of money.  Again, Hopkins is a nice player, just as Colon and Phillips are (and Kim used to be).  But really, $9.6M?  The market for third basemen seems over-inflated.  That probably redounds to Porter Scott's advantage.

 

#6: Emilio Romano, SP, Omaha.  Getting: $9.9M thru 1996.  Grade: B+.  Romano has been very good in his first year and a quarter with Omaha -- in fact, he's been one of the best pitchers in the game.  And he's still young at 27.  Still, he hasn't yet gone out and posted a Gibson-caliber year, and the length and money with the contract leave me a little nervous.  If Romano goes on to win a Gibson award, this contract could be upgraded.  If he starts to lose pitching points, it could be downgraded.

 

#5: Paul Sims, 1B, Kansas City.  Getting: $10M thru 1994.  Grade: B+.  Sims' ratings have slipped a little, but he's off to a red-hot start in 1993, and he was pretty good in both 1991 and 1992.  Still, I suspect Omaha could have signed him for less.  Remember the lesson of Gerald Lewis: Lewis asked for like $12M, but signed for just $7M.  Sims asked for $10M, or maybe slightly more, and Omaha gave in.  This isn't a big criticism, because none of us knew what we were doing back then -- if I had gone after Sims, I would have offered him exactly what he was asking for too.  In retrospect, though, I think Omaha (and now K.C.) could have gotten Sims for less.

 

#4: Mike Robinson, LF, Washington.  Getting: $10.3M thru 1994.  Grade: B+.  Signed after the 1988 season, the deal has had its ups and downs.  Ups: Robinson won the AL MVP in 1989 and 1992, and Washington won the World Series in 1989 while making an appearance in 1992.  Downs: in both 1990 and 1991, Robinson struggled while Washington missed the playoffs.  Still, the ups outweigh the downs.  A year from now, I will be interested in re-signing Robinson to an extension.  I hope I can get him to come down from his $10M price tag, though.

 

#3: Emilio Cabrera, RF, Montreal.  Getting: $10M thru 1993.  Grade: F.  The gold-standard of bad contracts, it's hard to see why Montreal was willing to take him off the hands of Carolina last year.  The good news for the Knights is that the deal ends after this year, meaning they will have a lot of money to work with this offseason.  Could be interesting, given that they're an up-and-coming team as it is.  This is what Cabrera, a two-time-MVP has been reduced to: when he leaves your team, its' great news because you now have way more money.

 

#2: Kyle Gregg, SS, Detroit.  Getting: $10.8M thru 1993.  Grade: C-.  Really?  Kyle Gregg is the 2nd highest paid player in EWB?  How?  Again, the guy is a decent player, and unlike others on the list, he's not fading too badly with age (he's 33).  But look, he's a guy who will go like: .292/5/50/20.  That's what he's been for years, and it's not like he was dramatically different from that before he signed his present deal.  Again, we see a pattern in Detroit: horrible, horrible contracts.  Does this force a re-evaluation of their past GM?  (I forget his name, but I think he's now with Las Vegas.  In his defense: Las Vegas seems to be turning things around as a franchise, since he took over.)

 

#1: Aaron Ellis, 2B, Houston.  Getting: $11M thru 1995.  Grade: B.  A very good player, who has even competed for MVP honos on occasion.  But as I mentioned in connection with Sims, this contract was from our earlier, more naive era.  Again, think Gerald Lewis: Lewis asked for $12M, settled for $7.5M  Ellis asked for $11M, but I bet he would have settled for $6.5M or so.  Again, I don't blame Omaha; we didn't understand how things worked back then.  But, it means that the contract receives a lesser grade than it otherwise might.  Also: must be noted that 3 of the top 6 contracts here were handed out by Mike (although Ellis and Sims went on to new teams).  Makes you think that EWB agents loved having a 13-year-old run Omaha.

 

GENERAL CONCLUSION: On the whole, a C+ average.  Avoid long term contracts, especially 7 year deals.  Third basemen seem to be especially overpaid.  And the best way to get undermarket players is to sign them to extensions before they can even come up for free agency (Vincent Carter, Doug Kelly, etc.).

Assorted Thoughts

October 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. Why is Carolina struggling so badly?  They're way underperforming their algorithm ranking.  Possible explanation: the gelling effect strikes again.  Again, I'm not fully sure the effect is real, but it does seem to arise again and again.

 

2. How is Washington D.C. playing so well?  Their offensive stats are generally bad (lower third of the NL), and their pitching stats are generally mediocre (middle of the pack).  I expect New York will overtake them before long.

 

3. If you really do plan to trade Whit Gaul, we might be interested.  Mauro Medina has been struggling for us, although he only has one blown save.  (Most of his bad outings have been in tied games, where he comes in and gets the loss.)

 

4. I feel like no matter what I do to my pitching staff, my starters' ERA will be among the best in the league (right now we're 1st) and my bullpen ERA will be among the worst (10th presently).  That's been true for several years, even though the makeup of my staff has changed considerably over that time.  This year in particular, I don't get it -- I feel like my starters kind of suck, or at least are much worse than they have been, and I feel like my bullpen is much more talented than they have been.

 

5. Our closer's role has been a revolving door since I took over in 1990.  During that time, here are pitchers who have been named closer for us (i.e., not simply players who have earned a save, but players we have put in the closer's role, and not merely on the basis of injury): Herman Thomas (1990), Tokaji Yamashita (1990, 1991), Ben Fleming (1991), Ken Milligan (1991), Ernesto Perez (1991), Carlos Hernandez (1991-1992), Cory Davidson (1992 playoffs), Mauro Medina (1993).  That's 8 pitchers in 3 years, and we might soon be looking for a 9th.

 

6. The demise of Los Angeles continues to be an interesting story.  Prior to 1992, L.A. was coming off a World Series appearance and the algorithm ranked them as the best team we have yet seen (New York was the top ranked team in 1993, and they were nowhere near the ranking of L.A. 1992).  And then they fell apart.  I sort of thought that might be a one year fluke, and L.A. would return to at least 85-90 wins this year.  But right now they're looking horrible.

 

7. The algorithm predicted they would take a fall, but St. Louis is looking good again this year.  Their pitching has been very good, and Tom Mills keeps chugging along.  Quietly, he might be putting together a hall of fame career.

 

8. Prediction: Austin is headed for a fall.  Maybe not this year, but soon.  They have too much money invested in aging players like Corey Dillon and Joe Warren.  That's what prevented them from re-signing players like Ned Gordon and Cliff Webb.  It might be a smart move for them as a franchise at this point: might as well stick with these guys, and try to capture even more titles before your championship window closes.  But, I seriously doubt Austin will be competitive by say 1995 or 1996.

 

9. I take Las Vegas slightly more serious than I took them last year, but I still think they probably aren't good enough to compete with us over the course of the season.  Last year, even when Las Vegas was closer in the standings, the team I always worried about was Los Angeles.  Now, I'm not too worried about the Gargoyles.  Portland is a complete afterthought.  We absolutely should win our division this year.  In fact, if we don't win it by a lot, that would be a disappointment.

Sporting News: News and Notes by Johnny Orker

October 29th, 2008 by Banditos GM

-  Omaha has been on fire.  After getting swept by the Chicago Samurai they won 8 straight and have gone 11-1 in that stretch.  Two big factors in their recent success have been the bullpen and Frank Patterson.  The bullpen, which had been struggling, is starting to look tight.  In the last 6 games they only had one breakdown, in the last game vs. LA.  However, their powerful offense saved the day and the win against LA.  Prior to that game the bullpen had given up two runs in the 5 games.  Frank Patterson, after a miserable April, is finally finding his groove.  His addition to an already powerful offense has made Omaha look nearly invincible.

-  Omaha has however faced a somewhat weak schedule so far in May.  They swept New Orleans, Memphis, and LA, arguably the weakest teams in the AL.  They also won 2 of 3 from the weak Fog Devils and got swept by the weak Samurai.  Omaha faces a big test in the next six games, going to Denver for 3 and then returning home to face the Washington Admirals.  The Admirals have dominated the Wolverines for years now.  If Omaha can put up a winning record in the next 6 games, Wolverines fans have to wonder how far they can go this year.  World Series?

-  The Admirals are facing their biggest enemy, injuries.  With a new team trainer and a relatively injury free April, most Admiral Fans thought that last year's problems were a thing of the past.  However, with the loss of Robinson, Jackson and Bicknell fans are starting to get worried.  The Admirals are strong this year, in fact, by many estimations the team to beat.  However, the AL (or I guess the Plains Division) is showing a lot of strength this year and the Admiral fans are losing their sense of inevitability that 5 Championships and last year's World Series appearance affords them.

-  The Admirals biggest concern has to be pitching.  Basket Case Garcia is not looking like his old self.  Aranda and Roger Wright are big question marks.  The bullpen is thin.  Washington cannot rely on Reginald Wilson in the bullpen, RJ Jacobs is carrying a 5.00+ ERA and Medina is spotty so far.  Luckily the offense has been spectacular, however if the injury bug keeps up it could really be problematic for Washington.

-  One of the bigger surprises of the early season is the Montreal Knights.  Montreal was picked near the bottom by most prognosticator, all predicting that the strong youth movement was a year or two out.  Montreal has been able to push to a near .500 record and 3rd place in the Colonial Division, AHEAD of perennial power Boston Irish.  Statistically Montreal is still somehat weak, having one of the worst pitching staffs and near last in Batting Average.  However, in other hitting categories Montreal is respectable.  Due in large part to Roy Payton who is emerging as a star 1B.  Payton is hitting .210/13/37.  Also Chris Kilvington is up from AAA and starting at 3B, putting up .305/5/15.  Montreal is really struggling at SP, although they have star Ernie Owens, #2 through #5 are pitching horribly.  Montreal GM Joe Steines has to wonder if now is the right time for Bill Wright and his loaded AAA team to make the step up.  With DC and NY still playing strongly, I predict Steines will wait until 1994 to make his move.

-  Pythagorean Record.  The Miami Banditos are the furthest under their Pyth. Record of 24-18 at -4.  The Washington DC Diplomats are the furthest over at +5 of 22-20.  Divisionally, the Sunbelt should be better and so should the Texas Divison whereas, the Colonial and Plains division may be playing over their head.

-  The Washington Admirals are an extremely adept fielding team, at least in the sense of not committing errrors.  Admirals only have 14 E's all season, significantly better than the rest of baseball.  Also a league best .992 Fielding percentage.  Do not steal on Austin (48.8 CS%) or Memphis (41.5%) but do steal on Carolina (17.1%).  Their respective Starting Catchers, MEM Jorge Hernandez, AUS Rafael Cortes, and CAR Graciano Silveiros.

- Matt Egghead is doing quite a respectable job in Minneapolis.  Egghead's moves to Mutiny success:

1) Hiring Pepe Vargas.  Take a look at Vargas' resume, the guy is a winner.  11 Playoffs, 3 championship, countless winning seasons several 100+ win seasons.

2) Trading for Steven Ferguson.  During last offseason's winter meeting Egghead was able to swindle Dallas.  Colleagues say that Egghead has an unassuming, confused look going into most dealings but they say don't underestimate him as a bumblefuck.  Most around the league are convinced that his persona is a disguise and really he is a shrewd, machiavellian GM.  Only sources in Omaha, Washington and Miami disagreed with this assessment.

3)  Bringing up LF Mike Rogers full time.  Rogers, a prospect, is kicking ass in his 1st season and a large part of Mutiny success.

4)  Signing CF Enrique Castro in April.  This FA signee is starting in CF and is playing well.

New Pitching Stars in the Plains Division

October 28th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. In Omaha you have 21-year-old rookie Ed Jackson, arguably the best starter in the entire AL so far.  (Jackson pitched a little in the majors last year, but he's still officially a rookie.)  And you also have 22-year-old rookie Shawn Carr, a 1992 draftee who has been arguably the best middle reliever in baseball.

 

2. In Kansas City you have 24-year old rookie Bartolo Barios, a 12-pt. pitcher with a 3.24 ERA and a ML-leading 6 wins so far.  (Like Jackson, Bartolos pitched a little in 1992.)  And you also have the newly acquired Joe Murphy, who's leading the majors with 15 Saves.

 

3. In Minneapolis you have former Gibson Award Winner Steven Ferguson.  After posting a 4.43 ERA in 1991 and a 5.35 ERA in 1992, Ferguson looked washed up, especially in light of a fractured elbow injury which had him out for 12 months during the time.  Because of this, Minneapolis was able to trade for Ferguson this offseason in exchange for nothing: they gave up highly overpaid backup C Tony Garcia, a player who only has 29 at bats for Dallas this year despite being paid $7.3M.  For Minneapolis, Ferguson is 4-3 with a 2.22 ERA, and has Matt looking like a genius.  You also have 22-year-old Domingo Lopez, an 11 point middle reliever.  Lopez is interesting because he spent 1992 with Memphis, and then was traded to K.C. this offseason for Matthias Marquis, a decent OF prospect (3-4 potential).  Somehow, Kansas City ended up placing Lopez on waivers this spring even though they just acquired him and gave up a lot to get him.  Minneapolis snatched him up from their division rival, and Lopez has responded with a 2.30 ERA.

 

4. In Denver you don't really have any new pitching stars, but you do have Aurelio Davila, who has now put up 4 very good outings in a row.

 

5. In Chicago you don't have even that.  What you have instead is the ongoing Carlos Pena disaster.  Remember, back in 1990 Pena won the AL Gibson award for a 2nd time, going 20-7 with a 2.08 ERA.  The next season, Pena was struggling in his free agent year.  Despite his struggles, Chicago G.M. Pablo Lara ended up signing him that August to a massive 7 year contract worth a total of $55M, almost $8M per year.  In terms of dollars per year, that contract was high but not insane -- Pena probably could have gotten $7M per year on the open market.  The insane part was the length of the contract: 7 years, meaning that Pena is signed thru 1998, at which point he'll be 37.  So far, the contract is looking absolutely horrible for the Samurai: in 1992, the first year of the contract, Pena was 11-14 with a 4.42 ERA; in 1993, he's started off 4-3 with a 6.52 ERA.  This is what Chicago is paying almost $8M a year for.  On the bright side, they only have to do this for the next 5 and a half years.

 

You can almost singlehandedly attribute the downfall of Chicago as an organization to this contract.  In 1990 and 1991, they were a playoff team.  In 1992, the first year of the contract, they fell apart, winning just 74 games.  In 1993, they look even worse.  Plus, the Pena and Reggie Phillips contracts really limit their options going forward -- Phillips is scheduled to make about $10M per year thru 1996, and he's a decent player, but not one of the best in the game, which is what his contract demands.

 

This year, Chicago has the 3rd highest payroll in baseball at $52M, but they're in last place with a .444 winning percentage.  (Comparison: the #1 payroll of New York has a .556 Win percentage; the #2 payroll of Kansas City is the best team in all of baseball.)

 

Oh, and one more thing.  Chicago has a horrible, horrible farm system -- Ranked #30 in baseball.  Even this might not do full justice to their badness, so think about this: their top ranked prospect is an outfielder with just 3-2 (contact-power) potential, with 1 eye.  In my evaluation, that means that their top prospect projects to be -- at best -- a marginal 4th or 5th OF.  (He does have top ranked speed and defense, but a 3-contact 1-eye batter can't cut it as a starter, if you don't have power.)   This is the best thing they are producing: a marginal 5th OF.

 

You will be hard-pressed to find another franchise whose future looks more bleak right now than Chicago's.  Good job Pablo Lara, former G.M.

Omaha Wolverine Promo days

October 27th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

It will be a summer of fun at Sears Field this season and a summer full of concerts.

 

Here are the promotional days and activities this season....

 

Saturday May 8, 1993 New Orleans Dukes @ 1:05 PM

 

We will be having the popular 50 cent beer and hot dogs day at the ballpark, which includes sodas for the kids, so come out to Sears Field and have a beer and a dog for a buck.

 

 

Monday May 24, 1993 Washington Admirals @ 7:05 PM

 

Come see the hottest band on earth, as Pearl Jam will be performing their record selling CD, Ten, before the ballgame. We will also be giving away Ricardo Hernandez bobbleheads to the first 5,000 fans. So come out and get a bobble head and see the hottest rock band since the Beatles perfrom as the Wolverines take on the Admirals.

 

 

Wednesday June 9, 1993 Minnesota Mutiny @ 2:05 PM

 

Come out and get an authentic bat that the Wolverines use themselves at the plate. We will be giving them out to the first 500 fans through the gates. After the game multi Grammy Award winner Whitney Houston will be performing after the game. She will be performing her number one hit " I Will Always Love You " along with other number ones so bring out the mothers and daughters to see one of the greats perform.

 

 

Tuesday June 29, 1993 Portland Fog Devils @ 7:05 PM

 

Come out and get your Jimmy Garrett bobblehead. They will be going out to the first 5,000 fans through the gates. Also to all fans you will be getting the team photo magnet.

 

 

Sunday July 4, 1993 Denver Amigos @ 3:05 PM

 

This 4th of July will be one you do not want to miss. Not only will you be getting the Greatest Fireworks show in the world, you will be in for a treat as the Omaha Wolverines are bringing in the biggest show in the world right now, Metallica and Guns 'N Roses. Watch two of the greatest rock bands play in ONE night. Come see James Hetfield, Lars Ulrich, Kirk Hammett and Jason Newsted and for GNR Axl Rose, Slash, Izzy Stradlin, Duff McKagan, Steven Adler as they rock the night. This is a night you don't want to miss. This is our present to the city of Omaha, fans of Wolverines and to our great country.

 

 

Tuesday July 20, 1993 Miami Banditos @ 7:05 PM

 

It will be Dash for Cash night at Sears Field, the first 100 kids under the age of 12 will be allowed to go onto the field before the game and a helicopter will dump $5,000 in ones onto the field. You will have 2 minutes to grab as much cash as you can and keep it for yourself. ( the participants parents/guardians are responsible for the taxes at the end of the year) After the game the Wolverines bring you the two hottest hip hop groups in the country, Tag Team with their number one hit "Whoomp (there it is)" and Wreckx-N-Effect with their top hit "Rumpshaker". So come out and see these bands and bring the kids for Dash for Cash.

 

 

 

Wednesday August 11, 1993 Los Angeles Gargoyles @ 1:05 PM

 

Come out and get team signed baseballs and Omaha Wolverine bumper stickers as the team balls will go out to the first 500 fans and the bumper stickers will be given out to everyone. and after the game stick around for the hottest alternative bands around as Nirvana and Kirk Cobain will be performing. coming off their number ine album Nevermind. This is a band that transcends old and young as their music brings tears to many.

 

 

Thursday August 19, 1993 Washington Admirals @ 1:05 PM

 

Come on out to Sears Field and not only see the winningest baseball organization in EWB history get beat, and to the first 15,000 fans you will get a Wolverines floppy hat and to all fans you will get a Wolverines rally towell.

 

 

Saturday September 11, 1993 Chicago Samurai @ 1:05 PM

 

This is 70's disco days. Go into your closets and pull out all of your garb and wear it to the ballpark. There will be 70's prices too. 50 cent beer, soda, hot dogs, hamburgers, peanuts etc. After the game the Bee Gees and KC and the Sunshine band will be performing and a special appearence by Susan Olsen, Susan as you know played who????? Cindy on the Brady Bunch. So come out have some drinks and food, enjoy the show and get an autograph if you can from Susan.

 

 

Tuesday September 28, 1993 Denver Amigos @ 2:05 PM

 

The last home regular season game of the year. Come out to the field and meet the players before the game, gates will open up at 11:35 and close at 12:35, so meet your favorite players and get their autographs. After the game our GM and Team President Mike G had to move heaven and earth to make this happen, so with out further adu the Omaha Wolverines Organization would like to present.........The Beatles thats right the remaining members agreed for ONE NIGHT ONLY. See Paul,George, Ringo and John's son Julian as they will perform after the game. Folks this is the biggest show of ALL time and it's coming to Sears Field. Get Your tickets NOW.

 

Re: Questions for Omaha G.M.

October 27th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

1) We would ideally like to sign both, now that may not be in the cards financially, but I appreciate immensely what Ricardo and Orlando have done for this organization. Their performance is not the reason we didn't make the playoffs as there numbers were great and we would love to keep them both. We are continuously working on their extensions and it takes time maybe even till the end of the year and it also is in their hands as far if they want to test the free agent market so we want them back and we are working on it.

 

2) I think Justin makes an astute observation and that probably is true in most aspects but there is no cookie cutter way to run organizations. He has different circumstances that he has and that I don't and vice versa. He may take over an organization that was winning and doesn't need to change much so team chemistry never becomes an issue because he has the pieces in place and doesn't need to make overhaul change. As opposed to myself who needed to make change and that team chemistry may be an issue, but my FIRST priority is building a foundation for our organization and to get the players so we can have them playing together for years and I think we are about there.

 

3) NO ! let's get some perspective here, we are only 30 games into the season if you evaluate new managers or coaches on the first 30 games then you have problems so I think that is a ridiculous question.

Re: Questions for Omaha G.M.

October 27th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Gary Java, KKAR 1290.

Re: Questions for Omaha G.M.

October 27th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

First off who am I speaking to ?

Questions for Omaha G.M.

October 27th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. Is there going to be an effort to re-sign Ricardo Hernandez and Orlando Diaz?  You have to understand that with the constant player turnover in Omaha, it's hard for fans to get too attached to any one player.  But somehow, Hernandez, with his cindarella story, has managed to rise above many of the other Wolverines and capture the hearts and minds of most Omahans.  The "New Mr. Wolverine," in many people's eyes.  So, are you going to be able to free up money to sign him up?

 

2. This past offseason, Washington Admirals G.M. Justin T. offered his theory of teams "gelling," according to which, even if you have a talented team, that talented team will underperform if they haven't played together enough -- haven't "gelled."  Do you believe in this theory?  Do you think Omaha's biggest problem is that they haven't had enough time to gel?  If not, what do you think there biggest problem is?

 

3. Given that Omaha is presently in 4th place, 9 games back, is your new manager's job already in jeopardy?  If not, shouldn't it be?

New Commissioner's First Test

October 27th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Check this player out, Jesus Jiminez.  Jiminez has an interesting story.  Currently he's the backup catcher on Houston, I stumbled across him looking at their team.  He was suspended so I checked him out.  I was shocked to see he was suspended for 152 Games!!!  What the hell?  Looking at his history, I saw he had a 10 game suspension in 1991 while with the Wheat King organization.  The Wheat Kings kept him until prior to the 1992 season when they made the decision to cut him, he wasn't worth the shame and trouble.  Jiminez sat out all of 1992 unable to serve his suspension, presumably.  In the last offseason, Houston signed him and he's now on their active roster except he has a substantially higher suspension.  Perhaps he failed another drug test?  But it's not on his history.

My assumption is that somehow this is a glitch, maybe it occurred switching over to the new patch or something.  The thing is Houston is idiotic keeping him on the active roster.  Their starting C Barnes is dying of fatigue and will continue that way for another 152 games.  The new commissioner must decide whether Jiminez should get a commuted sentence as it looks like a clerical glitch from the Fay Vincent office.  Once again Vincent shows his incompetence.  Well, thoughts?

I think Jiminez should get the suspension down to time served, no more suspension, or at the most like another 5 games.

Our Pitching Situation

October 26th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Our long-term pitching situation is pretty up in the air.

 

1. Sergio Garcia is scheduled to be a free agent after the season.  He's dropped a point this year, from 11 down to 10.  Corresponding to that, his production has dropped a bit during the first month of the season -- a 3.50 ERA rather than the 3.00 (or so) we're used to, and he's give up almost as many HR in the first month as he gave up all last year.  Also, the fact that he has low fatigue (he was originally a closer) is something we don't love -- it always limits his win totals.  We might be willing to re-sign him, but probably at nowhere near what he's asking.  In particular, his demand for a 5 year contract is impossible for us.  Maybe, he would give him 3 years at the $7M per year range, but even this is a little doubtful.  There's a very realistic chance this will be Garcia's last season in Washington.

 

2. Roger Wright is scheduled to be a free agent after the season as well.  There's no way we retain him.  In fact, there's even a chance he won't spend the whole season in our rotation.  From 1988-1991, Wright was probably our staff ace, regularly winning 15 games or so and posting an ERA in the mid 3.00s.  But back then, he was an 11 pt. pitcher.  Now, he's down to 8 pts. with just 7 pt. potential.  Wright is not an old man, at 27, but he's already sharply fallen off his peak in his early 20s.

 

3. Antonio Aranda does not appear to be long for this world.  Frankly, I'm surprised he's stayed on the major league team thru April.  Aranda is down to a 7 pt. pitcher, with 6 pt. potential -- that doesn't even cut it as a marginal AAA starter.  To Aranda's credit, he's started the season 4-0, and is among the major league leaders in wins even though we accidentally skipped one of his starts.  But, his 4.26 ERA isn't anything special.  Forget about next year, I will be surprised if Aranda is still on our ML roster by August of this year.

 

That still leaves Joe MacGregor and Gustavo Chavez in our rotation, and they both figure to be around for awhile with us.  But even so, this means we might need to bring in 3 new starters over the next year.  We have some in-house options: Jeff Blanchard is looking good in AAA, and we're still hopeful for Britt Murphy; there's also Doug Kelly and Reginald Wilson, who are presently filling relief roles for us at the ML level.

 

There are other options as well though.  If we decide to let Garcia go, we will almost certainly spend money this offseason to pursue an ace starting pitcher.  Maybe Michael Bowden, or Ernie Owen, or George Banks.  Also, Mark Jackson's last year of arbitration eligibility is 1994.  Rather than lose him as a free agent after that season, we might try to trade him at some point, and land a starter in return.

 

THE question for us during the remainder of 1993 figures to be, do we have enough pitching to make it to the playoffs, and to go deep once we get there?  Other things could potentially derail us -- like injuries -- but the real concern is pitching.  Our offense is dominant.  It may be that Kansas City is scoring a few more runs right now, but I doubt this will hold up.  Barring injuries, we should have the top scoring offense in the game by the end of the year, perhaps by far.  Just to give you a sense, here are the stat lines that our 2-7 hitters project to put up...

 

#2: Porter Scott: .304/32/124

#3: Mike Robinson: .333/22/60 (HRs and RBIs a little low b/c he's missed time to injury)

#4: Artie Bicknell: .345/54/162

#5: Dale Reinert: .342/54/141

#6: Mark Jackson: .324/27/97

#7: Leo Kennedy: .268/32/60

 

Obviously, there's no way all these numbers can hold up.  If they did, we would put the 1927 Yankees to shame.  But, it's not like any single player here is playing way over his head.  Porter Scott and Mike Robinson are hall of famers who are still near their primes, ratings-wise.  Artie Bicknell has as good of hitter ratings as anyone playing today.  Dale Reinert has 5 power, and the rankings like him as a top 5 First Baseman in all of baseball.  Mark Jackson has an established history of stat lines in the neighborhood of .315/20/100.  And Leo Kennedy has 4 power, and given his playoff explosion last year, 30 HRs for him isn't unthinkable, assuming he stays healthy.  So in short, we might be overachieving right now, but if so we aren't playing WAY over our heads.  We're playing a little bit over our heads.

 

Given this offense, even if we have average pitching, we should make the playoffs.  In fact, though, so far our pitching has been better than average: our starters' ERA has been 2nd best in the AL.  We worry that this is just smoke and mirrors, though -- our starters HAVE been playing WAY over their heads.  We'll see how things unfold.

Ft. Lauderdale Pitching

October 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Maybe I shouldn't knock Shockey.  So far this year Ft. Lauderdale is 9-5 and has a team ERA of 3.52, despite having no pitchers on their entire squad.  The Gulf Coast League is a bit pitching-dominant -- the league ERA is just 3.10.  Still, the Ft. Lauderdale pitching numbers are respectable, if a bit below average.

 

The real loser with the recent pitching signings may be Hurricane Second Baseman John Lambert, who had found something of a second calling.  Lambert was drafted in the 24th (next to last) round of the 1992 draft, and has quite modest hitter ratings.  He is not a prospect.  Or at least, not as a batter.

 

As a pitcher, though, he might have potential.  So far on the year, he's 6-3, and is only giving up 9.91 hits per 9 innings (a respectable number), and even better he's walking just 1.79 men per 9.  That gives him a decent WHIP of 1.30.  But that's not the half of it...

 

Again, Lambert is 6-3.  That's a lot of decisions, you might think, given that we're only 2 weeks into the season and Ft. Lauderdale has played just 14 games.  Well, it's because Lambert has started all 14 games for the Hurricans.  And it's not like he just starts them, pitches an inning, and then comes out.  No, in Lambert's 14 starts, he has thrown 95.1 IP *already* this year.  For a comparison: the next highest in the league is Julian Anderson, with just 31.1 IP -- less than a third of what Lambert has pitched.

 

So, not only is Lambert starting every single game, he's also averaging 6.81 IP every time he goes out!  If he were to keep up this pace, Lambert would pitch over 1,050 IP over the entire year!  Not even those old time pitchers from the 1800s could match that.

 

And again, I repeat, using Lambert as their one and only starting pitcher, Ft. Lauderdale is in first place in their division at 9-5.

 

Lambert must be some sort of freak of nature.  Don't let him miss his calling; convert him into a pitcher!

The Life of a Backup Catcher

October 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Is pretty good in EWB, at least for our backups.

 

In Miami you have Stan Kirby, a guy who's been with the team since back in 1982.  That makes him the longest tenured Bandito.  Now 35 years old, Kirby has never played more than 77 games -- in fact, his typical year has been more like 30 to 40 games -- he has a .264 lifetime batting average, and his career highs in homeruns and RBIs are 5 and 30 respectively.  Also, at this point in his career at least, his defense is pretty poor: 5 rating, 3 arm, leading him to throw out less than 25% of all baserunners last year.

 

In Washington, you have Carlos Lopez, who's been with the Admirals since 1987.  That ties him for the longest tenured team member.  Now 32 years old, Lopez has never played more than 36 games in a season, he has a .203 lifetime batting average, and his career highs in home runs and RBIs are 4 and 22 respectively, set way back in 1987.  His defense at least is quite solid, which is what has kept him in the majors -- 10 defense, 10 arm.

 

In Omaha you have Ron Newton, who has been with the team since 1989.  That might not sound like too long, but remember this is the Wolverines we're talking about -- very, very few pre-1990 players are still with the team.  (In fact, based on a quick look, the only others I can see are Chi-ming Khu and Julio Contreras.)  Newton's personal high is 106 games back in 1991, though it's more typical for him to play in 60 or so.  He has a lifetime batting average of .235 (he hit .197 last year), and he has personal highs in home runs and RBIs of 12 and 45.  Defensively, he's a little above average: 8, 6 arm.

 

Summing up, if you're a backup catcher, you can really kind of suck, but your team won't care and you'll be able to stick on the roster for years and years and years.  Kirby, Lopez, and Newton have a pretty good racket going.

The Pittsburgh Relievers

October 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

No theory on why Omaha is so hot, offensively.  I think it's just that we've only played 6 games.  I mean, the Wolverines will have a good offense, there's no doubt.  But they won't keep it up.

 

Anyway, the Pittsburgh Crusaders have a fairly interesting relief corps.

 

Start with closer Jesus Villanueva.  After an unbelievable 1991 -- 50 Saves, 1.01 ERA -- he fell back to earth in 1992, collecting 31 saves with a 3.78 ERA.  Which Villanueva shows up in 1993?  He's only 28, and his ratings are still good (11 pt. pitcher), though down a little from 1991 (12 pt.).  But note: his present 11 pt. status is identical to what he was in 1990, and back then he had 34 Saves and a 1.32 ERA.  I suspect he'll be much improved over 1992, but not as good as 1991.

 

The Crusaders have two interesting set up men.  First, there's Ademaro Buchner.  The 33-year-old German used to be one of the best closers in the game, having won 2 Fireman of the Year Awards (1984, 1985) for the Kansas City Wheat Kings.  Buchner's career took a wrong turn when he (re-)signed with New Orleans in 1990.  Even though he had a 2.37 ERA that year, the Dukes did not use him to close games out, and in fact they used him in just 24 games and 30.1 IP, even though he had no injuries.  He signed a big free agent contract with Pittsburgh after the season, expecting that he would be inserted back into the closer's role after 1 year off.  It did not happen, thanks to Villanueva.  Buchner is still pretty good: 10 pt. pitcher, who had a 3.25 in 88.2 relief IP last year.  But, making more than $2.5M, he's overpaid as a setup man.  By the way, I was thinking about pursuing him this offseason to be my closer, but opted instead for Medina because of the contract.

 

Pittsbrugh's other set up man is Ricky Powell, recently acquired from New Orleans.  (Funny: the last 2 New Orleans closers, Powell and Buchner, are now Pittsburgh set up men.)  After posting 41 Saves and a 3.41 ERA for New Orleans in 1991, Powell was demoted to set up man last year for them, and he'll play the same role for Pittsburgh.  Like Buchner, he doesn't seem very happy with the role.

 

In middle relief, Pittsburhg has Juan Torres, who used to be a Washington Admiral back in 1990 and 1991.  Torres alternated between the majors and AAA for us, and because he never really found his niche in the majors, we left him off our 40 man roster back in the 1991 offseason.  Pittsburgh ended up drafting him in the Rule 5 draft, and Torres posted a 2.91 ERA for them in 1992.  We're happy to see his post-Admiral career bloom.

 

Another former Admiral is Kenny O'Neal, middle reliever.  He's kind of a funny case.  After winning the World Series with Dallas back in 1990, O'Neal became a free agent, and no one called him up with an offer, until we did on March 2nd of 1991.  We signed him at a good deal: 1 year at $210K.  Our bullpen that year was horrible, and as a result O'Neal got a lot of action.  He performed pretty well: a 3.56 ERA in 66.2 IP.  O'Neal is notable for his exceptional (5 pt.) control, which makes him a 10 pt. pitcher overall.  Anyway, as 1991 wore on we were pleased with him, and wanted to make him an extension offer.  O'Neal would have none of it: he told us in no uncertain terms that he wanted to test the market and become a free agent.  Once he did so, he ended up asking for over $1M a year, which we thought was ridiculous.  Someone paid it to him though: Pittsburgh.  On March 2nd of 1992, the Crusaders called with a 2 year, $2M deal, and O'Neal paid them back with a mediocre 4.50 ERA last year.  $1M is a lot to pay to a middle reliever, and a mediocre one at that.

 

Pittsburgh's remaining middle relievers, Julian Alonso and Marcos Hernandez, aren't especially notable.

 

Still, there's a lot of stories going on in the Pittsburgh bullpen, especially given our connection to two of their relievers.

 

One more thing to mention.  Pittsburgh is a small market team.  As such, they have a small budget to work with: their payroll is just $31.5M in 1992.  With all these former closers and big names (and Kenny O'Neal, who doesn't fit either description, but who still gets paid a lot), Pittsburgh is spending more than $7M on their relief corp alone, almost a quarter of their overall budget.  And still, it's not like their bullpen is all that good.  Villaneuva is ranked as the 8th best closer (decent), but their other relievers are ranked 21st. 

 

So, is this really the best use of team resources?  I think Pittsburgh G.M. Wayne Gordon should come under intense scrutiny if the Crusaders don't win in 1993.  (He should also come under fire for trading away Frank Patterson in 1992.  Neither of the players he got in exchange look at all decent.  If he had to trade Patterson at all, he would have been much better served to strike a deal with Omaha, and get Brown and Wright in exchange.)

Re: Other Pre-Season Notes

October 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

1)  Montreal has a loaded AAA team in particular in OF.  Brown, Tony Marino CF, and Albert Perez RF are all star prospects.  In addition, Kilvington is still generally a good prospect at 3B.  Montreal also has a 5 star 1B and a 4 star 1B.  In other words the Columbus Border Cats, nominated by Mike as worst uniforms, are loaded.  Montreal team of the late 1990's??  Also, Bill James is GM of Detroit not Montreal.  Montreal's GM is Joe Steines, former Dallas GM and Executive of the Year.

2)  Ken Cooper will never have another 1991, I agree.  I think he will definitely improve on last year and continue to be a decent 1B.

3)  Update on Banks.  He is no longer behind Fields, Fields is now in AAA.  Banks is actually backup CF behind a fairly strong OF of Greg Stevens, Jason Callahan and Tom Jordan.  Banks agrees he should be in the starting lineup, he is infuriated right now.  I predict that Boston will put him on the trade block sometime soon.

Other Pre-Season Notes

October 21st 2008 by Admirals GM

Other things I couldn't fit into the algorithm report...

 

1. Frank "Mounds" Hearn is starting the season for Boston in the rotation: he's their third starter.  Conspiracy Theory: by alternating him between the rotation and the closer role, Boston is able to drive down Mounds' value -- he doesn't get enough saves to rank as an elite closer, or enough wins to rank as an elite starter.  Evidence: Mounds only got paid $2.65M in arbitration this year.  I don't really believe this is a "conspiracy," but it may be an unintended consequence of Anderson's switching.  Incidentally, Hearn is projected to be a free agent after the season.  Boston figures to have tons of contract room -- they could be the Carolina of 1993 -- so money shouldn't be a problem if they want to re-sign him.

 

2. While we're on Boston, I mention again that RF Cory Banks is still on the team, but isn't in the starting lineup.  After batting .345/2/46/27 with an astonishing 237 hits in 1991, Banks fell apart to .232/1/8/4 in 1992.  The biggest difference might have simply been playing time: after getting 686 AB in 1991, he got only 125 AB in 1992.  And that's not due to injury: Boston manager Sparky Anderson just decided not to play him.  His ratings fell a little: from 5 contact in 1991 to 4 in 1992, but 4 contact is still pretty good.  So what gives?  It's gotta be this: Banks is a horrible Sabermetrics player.  He has horrible power (1) and a horrible eye (1).  In 1991, when he batted .345, his OBP was ONLY .351.  Just to give you a quick comparison: last year, Roy Wilson batted like .270 for me, but his OBP was about .350, the same as Banks.  Given his 4 contact rating, I suspect that if Banks got enough AB, he could hit .310 or so over the course of the season.  If his OBP is only going to be .320 or so, and if he has no power, then this .310 BA is pretty worthless.  Just how far has Banks fallen?  Right now, he's sitting the bench behind a guy named Wilbert Field, a 33 year old RF who has pitiful ratings of 2-2 contact-power (but a 4 eye), and who last saw significant action in 1990, when he batted .239/4/28 for Montreal.  Wilbert has spent most of the last two seasons in AAA.  In Sparky Anderson's estimation, Wilbert is better than Cory Banks.

 

3. Speaking of fallen stars, remember Anthony Miller?  The Philadelphia OF was drafted with the 2nd overall pick back in 1986, and was rated as the #1 prospect in all of baseball when we started our jobs, back in 1990.  His potential ratings in 1990 were 5-4 (contact-power), while in 1991 they were 4-5.  In 1990, he was batting .317/17/58 for Philadelphia before injuries forced him out of action in the 2nd half of the season, likely costing him the Angel Rosa Award.  Injuries plagued him again in 1991, and he ended up missing the entire year to a torn PCL suffered in spring training.  In 1992, his comeback year, he struggled quite a bit, batting .252/16/58 in almost 120 games.  Well, right now he's on the bench for Philadelphia with ratings of just 2-3 (he does have 2-4 potential, which is better, but still not good enough to start on hardly any team).  Miller is one of those players who will go down in baseball history for never living up to his potential.  My own prediction: he spends a good deal of time on the ML roster in 1993, but then fades away, and we never hear from him again.

 

4. I always have kept an eye on Miller, in part because I was seriously thinking about trying to trade for him at one point.  Since 1990, I had the thought of dealing Ty Moore to get a good young hitter, and I regarded Miller as a prime candidate, even *after* his injuries -- in fact, I still thought about pursuing Miller last offseason, when I finally did trade Moore.  Another player I considered trading Moore to acquire was Curito Mendoza, formerly of Chicago who is now playing for Indianapolis in 1993 as their starting RF.  Back in 1990, Mendoza had 5-5 potential and 4-3 actual ratings.  But, again, he suffered a major injury: a herniated disk in his back that knocked him out for 8 months.  Thanks to the injury, he's down to 3-3 ratings today (both actual and potential).  Unlike Miller, Mendoza still does look like a major league contributor: he batted .272/17/69/20 last year for Chicago, and I expect him to put up similar numbers this time for Indianapolis.  But again, I'm sure glad I didn't trade for him.

 

5. The player I did end up trading Moore for was Artie Bicknell.  Bicknell is yet to produce a ton on the field, but I've already been lucky in at least one respect: although Bicknell only had 4-4 potential when I acquired him, he quickly moved up to 5-5 potential.  And, right this moment, he's reached 5-5 actual.  There is only one other player in EWB right now that I'm aware of as a 5-5 guy: Caleb Lang.  Don Kelly is not (Kelly is down to 4-4, so he's past his peak).  Vincent Carter is not (4-5).  I'm seriously hoping that Bicknell steps up his game, big-time in 1993, contending for an MVP alongside Lang.  Of course, now that I've written him up in a post where I'm talking about other young stars who succumbed to injury, I might have doomed him.  There's a difference between Bicknell and the others though: Mendoza and Miller had a lot of potential, but there actual ratings never got to where Bicknell is right now.

 

6. In 1991, Ken Cooper batted .316/44/116 and had a VORP of 59.6.  He was my first place vote for the NL MVP.  In 1992, he batted .230/29/100 with a VORP of just 3.7.  The team that really wishes they still had Frank Patterson isn't Montreal.  It's Pittsburgh.  It will be interesting to see what sort of career Cooper has from here on out.  He will never approach his 1991 numbers again; that's for sure, I think.

 

7. I'm not nearly so sure that Montreal got ripped off by Omaha in the Patterson trade.  For one thing, their starting 1B right now is Roy Payton, who's just 26 and already has 4-4 ratings and who produced better for Montreal last year than Patterson did.  For another, Tommy Brown seems to have improved quite a bit, going from the #66 Prospect in 1992 to the #19 prospect in 1993.  He seems to be just one year away -- I expect he'll be in Montreal in 1994.  Meanwhile, Bill Wright is starting the season in AAA and he too should be ready for AAA.  And, as a guy with 11 point potential, Wiright projects to a staff ace.  More generally, Montreal is pretty loaded in their farm system.  In AAA, they have two first basemen with 4-4 potential; while in AA they have another first baseman with 3-5 potential.  In AAA they have a RF with 4-5 potential.  And this is to pass over last year's #1 pick Danny Beasley, who still has 5-4 potential even if he's seen his star fade a little bit.  Especially noteworthy: exlcuding Beasley, these are all players who are in the high minors, guys who should be ready soon.  Let's see how Bill James handles this situation.

Orker vs. Algorithm

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Orker scanned all the teams and used his wise sight and intuition to make his predictions.  At the end of the year we should grade the predictions like they do for college football magazines.

Lots of similar predictions. 

1)  Obviously Orker has a bias towards Miami, placing them above Carolina.  Otherwise Sunbelt is pretty much straight.

2) Only discrepancy in Plains is Minneapolis and Chicago for 4 and 5.

3) Big discrepancy regarding LA.  Algorithm likes them, Orker has them finishing last presumably playing bad since they are behind mediocre LV and Portland.

4) Difference in Colonial is Philly and DC.  The algorithm surprised Orker, as he thought he was stepping out on a limb with DC 2nd and having Boston down to 4.

5)  Ohio Valley is a little shook up.  Once again Orker thought he was making a surprise pick with Cincinnati.  Though he picked Detroit 5th and the Algorithm (you should really create a name and brand it, much more marketable than "the algorithm) picked Detroit to win the Division.  Orker also gives a lot more value to St. Louis than the Algorithm.  The Algorithm thinks Cleveland will be much better than what Orker thinks.

6)  Texas Division comes down to the difference of opinion on Dallas.  But as mentioned by Orker, he believes that Division could be a crap shoot with the exception of San Antonio.

1993 Algorithm Predictions

October 21st, 2008 by Admirals GM

Hot off the presses, here is this year's algorithm prediction...

 

AL SUNBELT

1. Carolina

2. Miami

3. Atlanta

4. New Orleans

5. Memphis

 

AL PLAINS

1. Omaha

2. Kansas City*

3. Denver

4. Minneapolis

5. Chicago

(* Wild Card)

 

AL MOUNTAIN WEST

1. Washington

2. Los Angeles

3. Las Vegas

4. Portland

 

NL COLONIAL

1. New York

2. Philadelphia*

3. Washington D.C.

4. Boston

5. Montreal

(* Wild Card)

 

NL OHIO VALLEY

1. Detroit -- TIE--

1. Cincinnati

3. Pittsburgh

4. Cleveland

5. St. Louis

6. Indianapolis

 

NL TEXAS

1. Houston

2. Austin

3. El Paso

4. Dallas

5. San Antonio

 

Play-In Game: Detroit defeats St. Louis, to win the NL OHIO VALLEY

First Round NL: New York defeats Detroit, 4-0; Houston defeats Philadelphia, 4-3

First Round AL: Omaha defeats Carolina, 4-3; Washington defeats Kansas City, 4-1

NLCS: New York defeats Houston, 4-1

ALCS: Washington defeats Omaha, 4-2

World Series: New York defeats Washington, 4-2

 

NOTES

 

1. The algorithm predicts a lot of turnover, as far as playoff teams go.  New York, Washington, and Kansas City are expected to return to the playoffs, but no one else is: not Miami, Atlanta, Boston, St. Louis, or Austin.  In fact, Boston is projected to have a bit of a fall, from 2nd to 4th, and misisng the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  Blame the departure of Rafael Valentin and Gerald Lewis.  St. Louis is expected to have an even worse fall: from 1st to 5th.  Blame the departure of Joe Murphy.  Atlanta falls a little bit, but they are still somewhat competitive, and it's not like they were all that great or talented to begin with.  Both Miami and Austin are expected to be highly competitive, but to just miss out on making the playoffs.

 

2. The algorithm is probably most helpful/interesting when it comes to evaluating teams who have made major offseason moves.  For that reason, it's predictions regarding the NL Colonial division are especially worth a look.  Despite New York's losses, it's still projected to be a dominant team -- the best in the majors, by quite a bit.  Boston, with their losses, is expected to suffer a significant drop off, although let me note that their 4th place finish is a bit misleading -- the division is very tough.  Most surprising, at least to me, is that Philadelphia's moves set them up to win the Wild Card (in a tight race with Austin).  I wouldn't have guessed that.  I would have thought that the loss of Henry Winman made them much worse.

 

3. Of course, the other place to look for major moves is Carolina.  The algorithm likes the Colonials to win their division, although it should be noted that this is predicted to be the closest race in the AL, other than the Wild Card.  The Wild Card is unbelievably neck-and-neck.  The algorithm likes Kansas City to just barely squeak it out over Miami, Denver, Los Aneles, and Las Vegas.  The difference between those 5 teams is miniscule.

 

4. Who are the worst teams in baseball?  By far, it's Memphis in the AL and San Antonio in the NL.  In fact, the difference between Memphis and the 2nd worst AL team, Chicago, is immense.  So, it looks like the Winman trade isn't going to be enough.  San Antonio is getting even worse than they have been, if that's possible.  Another bad team is Minneapolis.  The AL is more divided into great teams and horrible teams, while the NL, with the exception of San Antonio, is more a case of everybody being bunched into the middle.

 

5. The best division in baseball is expected to be the NL Colonial: New York is excellent, Philadelphia is Wild Card, Washington D. C. is expected to be much improved (like, say, 86 wins, if I had to guess), Boston is still competitive (like, say, 82 wins), and even Montreal isn't bad for a cellar dweller.  The next best is the AL Mountain West: Washington is domiant, Las Vegas and Los Angeles are expected to compete for the Wild Card, and Portland is okay.  The third best is the AL Plains; 4th best is NL Texas (weighed down a lot by San Antonio); 5th best is AL Sunbelt (weighed down even more by Memphis); and the worst by far is the NL Ohio Valley.

 

6. It's kind of surprising that the Sunbelt is expected to be so bad, given their offseason infusion of talent.  But: (a) much of that talent went to Carolina, and Carolina really is expected to be much better, (b) the division was pretty weak to begin with, so even given the talent addition, they're nothing special, and (c) Memphis is really, truly, horrible.  Replace Memphis with say Portland (the last place team from the Mountain West), and the Sunbelt would rank as the 3rd best division instead of 5th.

 

7. Just how bad is the NL Ohio Valley?  Here's one way to put it.  Boston is projected to finish 4th in the NL Colonial.  If they were in the Ohio Valley, they would be the favorites to win it.  Dallas is projected to finish 4th in the NL Texas.  If they were in the Ohio Valley, they would be the favorites to win it.  Or in other words, the Ohio Valley champion is expected to be good enough to finish 5th in the other NL divisions.  The bright side of the awfulness is that the Ohio Valley projects to be the closest, most competitive division in all of baseball.  Not only do Cincinnati and Detroit tie (according to the algorithm), but Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and even 5th place St. Louis are expected to be super close as well.  In fact, the gap between 1st place Detroit and 5th place St. Louis is closer than the gap between 1st place Carolina and 2nd place Miami from the AL Sunbelt, and the Sunbelt is a fairly tight race.  Even last place Indianapolis isn't completely out of it: the gap between them and 1st place is smaller than the gap between New York (1st) and Philadelphia (2nd) in the Colonial, and it's also smaller than the gap between Washington (1st) and Los Angeles (2nd) in the AL Mountain West.

 

8. Just how close are the various division races?  Let's do them one-by-one.  NL Colonial: Cake walk for New York, even though the other teams are good.  NL Ohio Valley: Super close, as just mentioned.  NL Texas: extremely close between Houston and Austin, with El Paso and Dallas being a good deal back, and San Antonio being off the radar.  AL Sunbelt: Fairly close between Carolina and Miami, with Atlanta and New Orleans being a good deal behind, and Memphis being way, way back.  AL Plains: Not especially close between Omaha and Kansas City / Denver, with Minneapolis and Chicago being way, way back.  AL Mountain West: Cakewalk for Washington (in fact, even more of a cakewalk than for New York), with Los Angeles and Las Vegas being about equal and Portland being way back.

 

9. The honor of best pitching staff in baseball goes to New York, with Omaha having the best in the AL.  Incidentally, the one thing preventing Omaha from having the best staff in baseball is their middle relief, which has gone way down this year (their starters and closer still rank 1st).  The best offense belongs to Washington.  By the way, one of the things that makes the NL Ohio Valley so bad is the horrible pitching.  Look at the two top teams of Detroit and Cincinnati.  Detroit's Starters/Relievers/Closers are ranked 30/30/4 (Logan Elmore is their closer, and he's pretty good at #4); Cincinnati's are ranked 27/29/28.  If either of these teams had even a mediocre pitching staff, they would have enough offense to be pretty decent.

 

10. In connection with that last point, something to mention here is that the algorithm tends to underrate young players with potential who are yet to put up much production yet.  The corollary to this point is that it overrates veteran players.  So, which teams have the best shot of outperforming their algorithmic ranking?  Not teams filled with veterans, but those filled with youngsters.  This applied to us last year: we were led in no small part by young players like Dale Reinert, Artie Bicknell, Leo Kennedy, and Patrick Cole.  And so, the algorith underrated us and picked us last.  One team to look at for possibly being underrated this year is Cincinnati, whose pitching staff in particular is filled with young players (the guys who competed for rookie of the year last year).

 

11. Human overall rankings.  Washington is the best team in the AL, and the 2nd best team in baseball (after New York).  Omaha is the 2nd best team in the AL, and the 3rd best team in baseball.  Miami is the 5th best team in the AL, and tied for the 9th best team in baseball.

 

12. Final grain of salt: Last year, the algorithm loved Los Angeles.  And in fact, it continues to be the case that the 1992 Gargoyles are the greatest team ever measured by the algorithm -- New York of this year doesn't touch them.  Problem: in real life, the Gargoyles were just 81-81.

1993 Opening Day New and Notes CONTINUED

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

-  Whatever happened to the Philly OF?  Winman, Long, Morales.  Well now only Morales remains and at 23 years old is still a bonafide star in the making.  In fact look for him to have a breakout season.  Winman was of course traded to Memphis and Long was let go and signed by Dallas last season.  Long's demise is quite sad, at age 32 he looks to be on his last legs.  In fact he is now DHing and a considerable liability for Dallas considering his contract and production.  Philly signed Cliff Webb to play 1st and that should help the loss of offense resulting from the Winman trade.  Philly has a veteran pitching staff:  Luis Tejada (30, Solid), Julian Acuna (26,Acquired for Winman, Solid), Bruce Cochrane (36, may be over the hill), Jorge Hernandez (36), and Hector Escalante (32).  With 4 out of 5 starters in their 30's perhaps Philly felt the Acuna-Winman trade was necessary to take a pro-active move to getting younger SP.  The pitchers are all decent all the way down to number 5, if they perform well Philly could surprise, especially in a weakened division.  The bullpen is still weak.

-  Pete Rose loves the spunk Henry Winman brings to Memphis, saying that he remind him of himself.  One thing Rose may want to work with Winman on is stealing bases.  Winman has good speed but his judgment may be lacking as he was caught 22 times!  He stole 28 bases.  Winman is a great player and will help any team but Memphis is just really bad.  I can't see them competing with the likes of Miami, Carolina and Atlanta.  Memphis is one of the smallest market teams in the league.

- Speaking of Market size, me and MikeG were discussing on the phone the markets.  Here is a list:
Atlanta-VERY BIG=9
CAROLINA-BIG=8
MIAMI-BIG=8
MEMPHIS-SMALL=3
NEW ORLEANS=BELOW AVERAGE=4

CHICAGO=VERY BIG=9
OMAHA=BIG=8
KC=BIG=8
DENVER=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
MINNEAPOLIS=BELOW AVERAGE=4

WASHINGTON=BIG=8
LAS VEGAS=RATHER BIG=7
LOS ANGELES=BELOW AVERAGE=4
PORTLAND=BELOW AVERAGE=4

NEW YORK=HUGE=10
MONTREAL=RATHER BIG=7
DC=RATHER BIG=7
BOSTON=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
PHILADELPHIA=AVERAGE=5

DETROIT=VERY BIG=9
ST LOUIS=RATHER BIG=7
INDIANAPOLIS=RATHER BIG=7
CINCINNATI=RATHER BIG=7
CLEVELAND=AVERAGE=5
PITTSBURGH=SMALL=3

DALLAS=VERY BIG=9
EL PASO=VERY BIG=9
AUSTIN=RATHER BIG=7
SAN ANTONIO=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
HOUSTON=AVERAGE=5

These are not totally random but also not set by me.  These were set by whatever real MLB market the fictional team took over, for example the Detroit Cruisers took over the Cubs.  New York 5 Points took over the Mets.  However, they can also fluctuate too, except for humans which I manually keep at 8, which we agreed prior to the league.  Mike and I also discussed the possibility that if we ever wanted to increase our challenge then we could lower our Market Level.

- Back to Carolina.  The signing of Valentin is interesting.  One, Carlos Perez, who has twice in his career hit 50 or more HR, will back him up at 1st.  Perez is declining due to age but still very notable.  Robert Huot, last year's starter at 1st will be the 3rd backup in AAA Norfolk, quite a shitty demotion.  Joining Huot in AAA will be Gonzalo "Cougar" De la Torre who will be the backup 1B.  So the hell is the AAA starting 1B you ask?  Jesus Lopez, who was signed.  Lopez has an extensive EWB career, last year playing for Indianapolis and in 1991 for El Paso hit .258/27/98.  Carolina really wanted to make sure they had depth at 1B.  Their 3 AAA 1B all can make cases to start in EWB or at the very least be on a EWB roster.

-  Denver has slightly changed the roles for Cole and Escobido since Justin's email.  Cole will hit 2nd and Escobido 8th.  Vincent "Eager Beaver" Carter, known as one of the nicest gents in the league, took them both out for dinner upon their arrival in Denver.  Carter is excited about having Cole in front of him.  Behind Carter, hitting 4th, will be the Mexican, Juan Velazquez.  Velazquez is the 78th rated prospect.  Velazquez had quite an offseason in the Mexican League.  In 1992 he was traded from Memphis to DC.  DC seeing nothing in him released him at the end of the season.  Velazquez, motivated by the release, improved quite a bit and was signed by Denver.  While still one of the weakest 4 hitters in the league, he may bring a spark.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE................

1993 Opening Day News and Notes

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Just Ramblings from looking through the league.

- The big news and headlines in Carolina are all about their new marquee signings.  However, their biggest move occurred months ago, specificall 7/30/1992.  That was the date they removed the albatross from their neck by trading Emilio Cabrera and $3.0 Million to hapless Montreal for disgruntled OF Luis Martinez.  Cabrera, two time MVP, was signed to an enormous 4 year deal at $10.48 million per year.  Cabrera suffered major injuries in 1990 and 1991 which restricted his playing time to about a half a season each year.  By 1992 Cabrera was half the player he used to be and in two years hadn't come close to providing Carolina anything near their $10 million dollar a year investment.  GM Robbie Johnson somehow swayed former Montreal GM Cedric Backman, now running the show in Cleveland, to take Cabrera.  Cabrera played utility OF for Montreal and looks to continue that role in 1993.  Carolina freed up a large amount of cash, signed some premier players, made some trades (Moore-Bicknell) and now look to be the contender they should be.  Carolina is a Big Market Team.

07-30-1992Was traded by the Carolina Colonials to the Montreal Knights, along with $3,000,000, in exchange for RF L. Martínez.

-  Montreal seems to be a favoured trading partner of humans, probably because of their susceptibility to getting fucked over.  New GM Joe Steines says that will all change.  There is reason to believe Steines.  The former Dallas GM and Executive of the Year has a World Series Title to his name.  Erasing the mistakes of the past will be hard.  One of the worst moves of former GM Cedric Backman was trading away Shannon "Interceptor" Townsend to Omaha.

06-29-1991Was traded by the Montreal Knights to the Omaha Wolverines, along with SP T. Merritt, SP R. Ortíz, in exchange for 3B J. Martinon, 1B C. Kilvington, MR A. Durán, MR C. Crus, MR K. Williams.

Especially now that Townsend is with divisional opponent New York.  The Townsend trade failed for Montreal.  Martinon has lost his prospect status and his starting position at 3B, he will be a utility IF for Montreal in 1993.  Kilvington is in AAA and ironically stuck behind Martinon.  Duran and Crus join former Wolverines John Roe and Leon Rosario to make up the Montreal Bullpen.  They're Ok but nothing special and are probably well below average.  Kenny Williams is in the Bandito minor league system, let go by Montreal.  Backman traded a young rising star, READY star for prospects and a few fillers.  Those prospects tanked and Montreal loses.  Recently Backman made the same type of trade, trading Frank Patterson for Bill Wright and Tommy Brown.  Both Brown and Wright are in AAA Columbus and may contribute this season.  Was the Townsend trade an aberration?  Will the Wright/Brown for Patterson trade pay off and absolve Backman?  Who knows, another interesting story line of 1993.

- Speaking of failed organizations, San Antonio hired GM Pablo Lara to take over.  Lara, former Chicago GM, has quite the task.  Low Budget, very few fans, small market, an owner placed manager who may have more sway over ownership than Lara; all of this will impede Lara's chances at turning it around.  1993 doesn't look like the year.  San Antonio has a patchwork team with little talent.  John Hennessy is the only bright spot on the roster and Hennessy can't do it alone. 

-  In other GM news, former Portland GM Tim Hill takes over the New Orleans Dukes.  New Orleans is seems to be an overachieving team in the last couple of years, relying mostly on strong pitching.   Playing in a ramped up division, New Orleans has two front line starters in Victor Pereira and Henry Wright.  However, after that they have a large drop off in SP and a relatively weak bullpen and closer.  Unless their offense performs significantly better New Orleans will struggle this year.  With Dave Page signed until 1996, for better of for worse, New Orleans needs to either build some core around him or trade him for prospects and cede this year.  Tim Hill is not one scared to pull a quick trigger.

- Tyrone "Skull Crusher" Taylor is projected to be the starting LF for New York in 1993 and has developed quite well.  He was involved in the trade for Patrick Cole, who has lost his starting job.  Taylor has a 4 contact, great speed, great defense, and a penchant for crushing opposing catcher's skulls.  A crowd favourite in the Big Apple.

MORE COMING, STAY TUNED...... Want to send before I erase it.

Fw: WOW!!

October 20th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Rumour has it that at the Annual Washington Organizational Meeting young GM JTT and Hoskins got into an argument about the value of RBI's.  Hoskins, a staunch proponent of the new fangled sabermetrics, showed impudence towards his superior.  This is what caused him not to be re-signed.  However, he found an ally in new GM Bill James who also shares a similar philosophy.  James showing a high degree of confidence promoted Hoskins to manager of the Cruisers despite the fact that Hoskins has never managed above AA.

Staff Salaries

October 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Your staff consists of your manager, your trainer, and your various coaches across all organizational levels.

 

Here are the staff payrolls for a few teams, taken as a representative sample...

 

L.A.: $1.3M

Las Vegas: $2.7M

Indianapolis: $1.9M

Denver: $2.5M

Detroit: $1.9M

Cleveland: $1.7M

New York: $3M

 

I list New York last because they have the highest non-human payroll for staff, fitting their big market status.  So, what you see here are staff payrolls in the range of the mid one millions to the high 2 millions.

 

Now for us.

 

Omaha: $4.5M

Miami: $4.2M

Washington: $4.1M

 

As you can see, we have staff payrolls that are close to twice as big as the league average, and over a million dollars more than the highest non-human (New York).  Is this money well spent?  I can't say for sure, but I did think it was notable.

1992 Miami Banditos Team Awards Ceremony

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

November 15th, 1992

Miami, FL -  The 1992 Awards Ceremony was held at Prime 112 in Miami Beach.  The team held off the ceremony later in the year than usual, many players were still struggling with the ALCS loss.  Still the atmosphere was upbeat and high energy.  President and GM Rob M presided over the ceremony, while Johnny Orker once again provided the comedy and anecdotes of the season.

The following awards were presented:

Team MVP:  Ken Bryant - Although he missed much of the season, his explosive return came at a time when Miami was slipping out of contention.  Bryant kept up the intensity and production all the way through the playoffs.  His 2nd Team MVP Award.

SP of the Year:  George "Slider" Banks - Banks 3rd consecutive SP of the Year Award.  His contributions need no further explanation.

Bullpen Bandito of the Year:  Lou "Franchise" Bennett - Bennett took the Closer reigns without any hestitation and his sub 2.00 ERA kept Miami's lead time and time again.

Rookie of the Year:  Ryan Hinkle - Hinkle was thrown into the mix unexpectedly after Delzoppo's injury.  Hinkle was consistent and a dependable and solid #2 hole hitter all year.

Most Improved:  Anthony Pryor - The York, NE native hit .197 in 1991, in 1992 he hit .299 in a platoon role with Shunsho Yamada.  Pryor too took over unexpectedly for the injured Joe Young.

John Hayes Leadership Award:  Forest Thomas - Thomas wins the award for the 2nd year in a row.

Community Activism Award:  Tom Delzoppo -  Being injured all year Delzoppo took up the cause of saving the world.  Delzoppo known for his love of surfing and recreational drugs decided to start a recycling trend in the Polo Grounds Player Clubhouse.  Delzoppo spent hours before and after the game making handmade tin baskets.  He then persuaded teammates and personnel to throw different trash materials in the different tin baskets so they could be sent to recycling.  Delzoppo is cleaning the world one tin basket at a time, starting a worldwide trend.

Re: NEWS

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

So is he Shockey's superior then?  Is he going to give Shockey the same free reign or be more on hands?  I think of Steve Stone as being a micro-manager, perhaps good for you as GM but a pain in the ass for his underlings.  By the way, I've often thought of adding Steve Stone as a manager to EWB but then I always forgot.

Even in the early 1990's I was a big advocate of him, as I believe we all were.  I am still kind of amazed nobody ever given him a shot at being a GM or Manager, especially considering that he's made it no secret that he desires such a role.

RE: NEWS

October 17th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Steve will be leaving his duties as color commentary for Wolverines baseball on Fox 42, and will leave an empty seat next to Harry Caray, his replacement will be named at a later date.

NEWS

October 17th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

The Omaha Wolverines would like to announce the new Vice President and Assistant GM of the Omaha Wolverines, Steve Stone. Steve is a welcomed addition to the Wolverine organization as he will be my right hand man and an evaluator of talent who will help Curt Shockey as he rebuilds the future of the Wolverines.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

A couple of thing in response.

 

1. Yeah, I think the HR distribution among teams must be parasitic on the distribution among players.  I found it especially notable, though, that as I looked over the real life stats, the jump among low HR teams was much bigger than the jump among high HR teams.  The evidence here was much clearer and easier to see than was the evidence regarding players.  Now, you could take this as indirect evidence about players: presumably, the lower power teams have disproportionately more low power players, and so if that's where the power boost comes from mostly, you would expect the lower power teams to go up.

 

2. On reflection, I think you're probably right as far as pitchers.  What's most likely to happen is that everybody's ERA goes up.  It's not a sure thing, but if I had to bet, that's what I'd say.

 

3. The big unknown here is this: exactly how much statistical structure does the computer import from real life onto EWB?  Does it just do league averages?  Does it do distributions too?  You could have 2 different leagues where the average RPG in both is 4.0, but in the first league the scoring range is only from 4.2 (the league leader) to 3.8 (the worst), with everyone bunched in the middle.  Alternatively, you could have a 4.0 average where the distribution is all the way from 6.0 to 2.0.

 

As in 1 above, the question about distribution is probably more important regarding individual players instead of whole teams (the latter is probably just parasitic on the former).

 

But anyway, the question I don't know is whether the computer is sensitive to such things, whether it's just sensitive to averages, or what.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th by Banditos GM

Also, other thoughts:

1)  Regarding pitchers, the good pitcher stayed the same but you added a bunch of bad pitchers with expansion.  The immediate effect would be to raise the league ERA.  The league ERA rising isn't necessarily dependent on EVERY pitcher's ERA rising.  In fact, just dilute the pool with some more bad starters and it will have a chain effect:  quicker hooks, more relief, worse pool of reliever, bad pool of relievers relied upon more etc.  However, none of that effects Pedro or Clemens.
1A)  With regards to EWB, we have no expansion.  One of the choices we made early, for better of for worse, was to play a quasi-historical/fictional league.  Meaning it's completely fictional player, teams etc however dependent on historical results.  For example the totals.  The result is that we're somewhat bound to the causes/effects of real life even if they don't occur in our league.  So our "expansion" effect can't be explained by expansion but instead perhaps our creativity.

2)  In real life at that time, yes the good pitcher are valuable in a bigger pool of pitchers.  Think of inflation, say I have a piece of gold and it's worth $1 but then you add a bunch of dollars to circulation.  My gold, in terms of dollars, rises.  Think of Clemens as that piece of Gold.
2A)  In EWB, I'm apt to believe that opposite of real life, every pitcher's ERA will proportionately rise with the league cumulative ERA.  Should I think differently? 

Note:  Once we hit 2008 all this goes to the roadside since we are no longer historically bound to some degree.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Very informative, gracias.

Q1 - One thing to obviously note is the change of rosters.  If for example Omaha loses Ellis and we gain Valentin then yes your theory looks for sure to be correct.  However, pretend our rosters stayed exactly static, wouldn't it depend on the answer to question 2 regarding individual players and your answer?  By the way I tend to agree with your answer on Q2 intuitively with option 3.  In that case, teams with more of those type of players would raise their totals.

That leads to the question:  Why would expanded (weaker) pitching substantially help the less powerful hitters more so than the already established power hitters?  This would lead me to believer that option 1 and 2 are the more likely, if #3 is shown to be accurate than I would almost have to wonder if it's just variance (random).  But I still intuitively believe it would be #3, mainly because of the rise of players like mediocre SS's all of sudden hitting 18-25 HR when they used to hit 1-10.

But that is more to the real life question, as far as EWB which mirrors, then you're talking a whole different question.  In the case of EWB, I believe it will be equitably distributed.  For example if you're a 5 power hitter and you play 150 games you hit 42 HR in 150 games(+/- variance), if you are a 3 you hit 18 (+/-).  In 1993 the proportions will stay the same but the totals will rise, in other words the gap between 5 and 3 didn't change, nor will the gap between HR from 5 and HR from 3 the totals will not the proportion.  EWB is governed by the laws we set (ratings and totals), real life is not.  So ultimately we might reach the same end (totals) but in different ways.  EWB guided by ratings, MLB guided by whatever the answer to Question 2 is.

Make sense?  If so, congratulations because I'm not sure if I get what I am trying to say or rambling.

More Offense in 1993?

October 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

REAL LIFE

 

1. As we've discussed before, EWB tracks real life MLB thru the years in terms of offensive and pitching trends.  E.g., just as in real life there was a HR explosion in 1987 (the year of the "juiced ball" with Andre Dawson, Mark McGwire, and others), there was also an EWB HR explosion in 1987 (4 of the top 5 best HR seasons in EWB history took place in 1987).

 

2. In real life MLB, there was a major power boost from 1992 to 1993.  Why?  It wasn't steroids; not yet.  Rather, it was expansion: 1993 was the first season the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies.  With expansion, offensive totals shot way up in 1993.

 

3. Here's some documentation.  In 1992, the average NL team scored 3.88 runs per game; in 1993, they scored 4.49 (0.61 rpg increase).  In 1992, the average NL team hit 105.1 HR over the year; in 1993, they hit 139.7 HR on average.  (This isn't solely due to Colorado.  The 1993 Rockies weren't an especially powerful team -- Charlie Hayes led them with just 25 HR.)  Over in the AL, offensive figures rose as well.  In 1992, the average AL team scored 4.32 RPG; in 1993, they scored 4.71 (0.41 rpg increase).  In 1992, the average AL team hit 126.9 HR; in 1993, the number rose to 148.1.

 

4. Another way to document the point is by looking at the HR leaderboards from 1992 to 1993.  First, here's the NL top 5 in 1992: 1. McGriff 35, 2. Bonds 34, 3. Sheffield 33, 4. Daulton 27, 5. Hollins 27.  So the leader (McGriff) hit just 35 HR, and only 3 players in the entire league had more than 30.  Here's the leaderboard in 1993: 1. Bonds 46, 2. Justice 40, 3. Williams 38, 4. McGriff 37, 5. Gant 36.  So, 2 player reached 40, and every player in this top 5 had more HR than the leader (McGriff) had in 1992.  In the AL, the difference from one year to the next is less dramatic, but still noticeable.  1992: 1. Juan Gonzalez 43, 2. McGwire 42, 3. Fielder 35, 4. Belle 34, 5. Carter 34.  And then in 1993: 1. Gonzalez 46, 2. Griffey 45, 3. Thomas 41, 4. Belle 38, 5. Palmeiro 37.

 

5. I haven't had the time to try to actually prove this, but based on a quick scan of these and other numbers, my strong hunch is that the shift from 1992 to 1993 was the biggest *single season* inncrease in offense from one year to the next.  I mean, offenses continue to get better in 1994, and in 1995, and so on, for awhile, and 1998 offenses kick the ass of 1993 offenses.  But, the single biggest leap forward in this offensive revolution took place between 1992 and 1993.

 

Now, let me start to apply this to EWB

 

EWB

 

1. In 1992, the average AL team in EWB hit 129.1 HR, as compared to the number of 126.9 in real life.  That's pretty close.  The average AL team in EWB scored 4.38 RPG, as compared to 4.32 in real life.  Again, that's pretty close.  Finally, the AL home run leaderboard in 1992 was: 1. Picot 42, 2. Carter 35, 3. Hernandez 33, 4. Sims 33, 5. Torres 32.  Again, if you look at the AL real life leaderboard, that's pretty close.  So bottom line: EWB 1992 mirrored real life 1992 pretty well.

 

2. Therefore, I assume EWB 1993 will mirror real life EWB as well.  It's not obvious that this is right, but suppose that it is.  If so, you should expect your team to score about a half more run next year, and to hit about 30 more HR next year.  On the other hand, your pitching staff figures to give up about half more a run next year.  I emphasize that this is on average.  Individual teams might show more improvement, or less.  That leads me to my next question...

 

QUESTIONS

 

Q1. How will the increase in runs and home runs be "spread out"?  Let me explain what I mean.  In 1992, Omaha led the AL with 178 HR, while Miami was near the bottom (10th) with 121.  Suppose that these two teams combine to hit 60 more home runs in 1993.  How will these 60 HR be spread out?

 

Option #1: Each team hits exactly 30 more HR: Omaha hits 208, Miami hits 151.

Option #2: The home run increase is skewed toward Omaha, the more powerful team: Omaha hits 220 next year (increase of 42) while Miami hits 139 (increase of just 18). 

Option #3: The home run increase is skewed toward Miami, the less powerful team: Omaha hits 195 HR next year (increase of just 17), while Miami hits 164 (increase of 43).

 

A1.  There's no way to know for sure, but if EWB follows real life, it should be Option #3: skewed toward Miami.  Omaha should see their power numbers increase, but not as dramatically as Miami does.  The real life data... In 1992, 4 AL teams had less than 100 HR (Mil, Bos, KC, Cal).  In 1993, no AL team had fewer than 114 HR.  So, in real life, the low-power teams saw a big jump in HR.  In contrast, the 1992 AL HR team leader was Detroit with 182, while in 1993 the AL HR team leader was Texas with 181.  That is, the league leader actually saw a 1 HR decrease, even though the league-wide HR total went way up!  If this happened in EWB, Omaha would actually see their HR total drop next year, while everyone else in the AL saw it go up.  I doubt this will happen, but it suggests which way you should expect the HRs to be spread out, by team.

 

Q2: Similar question, but now for individual players.  Suppose HR totals do go up next year, where will the additional HRs be coming from, bigtime power hitters or low power weaklings?

 

Option #1: Everybody's HRs go up equally (let's say, by 4).  If Miguel Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 36 in 1993; if Ryan Hinkle hit 6 in 1992, he will hit 10 in 1993.

Option #2: The increase will be skewed toward the top power hitters.  If Miguel Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 40 in 1993; if Hinkle hit 6 in 1992, he will hit 8 in 1993.

Option #3: The increase will be skewed toward low power hitters.  If Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 34 in 1993; if Hinkle it 6 in 1992, he will hit 12 in 1993.

 

A2:  This is even harder to say for certain.  If you look at the real life NL leaderboards, it tends to suggest option #2: the top players will see the biggest improvement.  Other data seems to suggest option #3 instead.  I'm not sure myself.  If I had to say which theory best fits real life, my hunch is to say it's closest to #3.  If you wanted me to predict what will happen in EWB, my hunch tells me #2.  That's all guessing though.

 

Q3: Given that offenses are about to explode, is it especially good right now to have a powerful offense?  Will that help your team win?  Or, given that everybody's offense is going up, is now the time when what really matters most is pitching?

 

A3: Again, hard to say for sure, but based on a casual look at the real life stats, I'm inclined to think that having a good offense during this period actually matters more than it used to.  I find that a little surprising: you might think that if everyone's offense has gone up, then offense itself is less valuable than it used to be (due to something like inflation), and so what you really want is pitching.  But, based on a quick glance at which teams won in 1993, it was the team with great offenses (like the '93 Philadelphia Phillies, and the Toronto Blue Jays), more than the teams with good pitching (like the '93 Houston Astros, who had the 2nd best ERA in the NL).  Toronto had the 2nd best offense in the AL, but only the 5th best pitching.  Philadelphia had the best offense in the NL (by a huge margin), but only the 6th best pitching.  The data is very limited, so don't trust it too much.  But, taking it with a grain of salt, what it says is to go out and make your offense better.  Worry less about pitching.

 

Q4: Any other trends to look for?

 

A4: I'm not sure; would have to think about it more.  Here are a couple, maybe, though.

 

In real life, as HRs went up, players started to steal less.  There's an obvious rationale for this: with so many home runs being hit, don't risk getting thrown out stealing, since a HR scores you regardless of whether you're on first or second.  If that's right, then we should expect EWB players to start to run less (as Rob has mentioned, it's been a very high SB league so far), and for players who can run (e.g., Roy Wilson) to have less value as time goes forward.

 

Here's one more thing to look for: the statistical gap between the best pitchers and the rest of pitchers to grow much larger.  Call this the "Pedro Martinez" effect.  It's connected to expansion in real life.  Remember how Pedro Martinez would post like a 1.70 ERA when the league average was like 4.75?  You should actually expect that sort of thing to happen when a league expands.  I'm not sure we'll see this trend in EWB, but if we do, it could make dominant starting pitchers even more valuable than they already are.  It would be unsurprising if, say, George Banks and Emilio Romano saw their own ERAs go down even as the league ERA rose, or at least if they saw their ERAs remain constant while everybody else's went up.  Here's another analogy: in 1991, Roger Clemens had a 2.65 ERA, while in 1998 it was 2.68.  At the same time, the ERA of the entire AL went up an entire run, from about 4.00 to 5.00, so Clemens was standing still even while everyone around him was getting worse.  Now, it may be that this was due to Clemens taking steroids, but this sort of thing is completely unsurprising, given expansion and other factors.  In general, regardless of steroids, you should see the very best starting pitchers stand out even more than they otherwise do.  I'm not at all sure that this trend will occur in EWB, but it would be interesting if it did.

Re: Remainder of Interview

October 15th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

3) We are going to be stable, but we have to go through this process to get to where want to go and that is win the World Series. I have stated this over and over again with you guys there is a process in place and in place to make us better. When I took over we basically had nothing and now we are looking at one of the most talented clubs in EWB. We took our time with Ed Jackson who will be in our rotation next year as our 4th starter !  Look at our rotation Romano,Diaz,Jones, Jackson and hopefully Felix Rojas will be 100 percent when we start spring training as our 5th starter, look at our offense Jimmy Garrett, Aaron Ellis, Ricardo Hernandez, Jose Rodriguez and now Frank Patterson and some good young outfielders and not to mention Fireman winner Punk Perez so if look at where we were in 1990 and today it is a complete overhaul and that kind of stuff doesn't happen overnight and yes I could have stood pat, but stay pat with what I had we would have had a different conversation all together right now. I have a strategy and it is working, will I divulge that strategy NO. Will we win we will find out, we have the players and NOW it is time to let the new manager and his staff bring it all together and I can't wait for that and to the fans of the Wolverines we will be good now and in the future I stake my job on it.

 

4)You will find out soon enough.

 

5) Yes, why don't you interview him? We are of the same opinion as to how to get things turned around. We know what we are doing. Let's have this conversation a year from now and we will see where things stand.

 

6) Kansas City, because of the proximity and because of the history of our ball clubs. Also some bad history as far as that 4th of July night in '76.

 

7) I have ideas on it, but that is Mr. Theisen's decision.

Remainder of Interview

October 15th, 2008 by Banditos GM

3)  You recently traded for Frank Patterson, sending two of your best minor league prospects and the well liked John Roe (fan interest dropped considerably with the loss of Roe) to Montreal.  What is the endgame strategy for you as a GM?  Many fans and media in Omaha have characterized this team as a merry go-round revolving players.  With no stability, chemistry, or tradition, how do you expect to build a winner or a stable fan base?

4)  Lou Frye, is he at the helm in 1993?  If yes, why is he your man?  If no, who are your candidates?

5)  Is your job safe?  Willie Thiesen has been quite patient but with the flurry of changes that just happened around the league, do you fear for your job security?

6)  Who is Omaha's biggest rival in EWB and why?

7)  Who are you going to vote for as the new commissioner of the Earl Weaver Baseball League?

Re: 2nd Question

October 11th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

2A) Yes, I am a supporter of Gov. Clinton. I believe he is a man of change and of new ideas for the 21st century after 12 years of old ideas and policies. Our economy is down right now and it does effect us as an organization so I believe not only is Gov. Clinton is a good and funny man he has the best ideas for our country in the future. I think his policies on our economy are right on as far as tax cuts for the middle class I think are prudent and I think his wife Hillary has some good ideas about our health care system and numerous other things. As far as being for a Democrat in a Republican city/state I think the people of Omaha/Nebraska are more interested in loyalty and respect a good conversation about policy than dislike me for my views and I think they care more about who will be the next manager or who we will have on our team next year.

 

2B) We are just friends.

 

2C) No, I believe age means absolutely nothing. Look if you win you stay you lose you go regardless of age, race, sex, etc. Look at Admirals GM Justin T and Banditos GM Rob M, we are all about the same age and they are in the World Series and made it to the ALCS respectively so age doesn't have to be a deterrent or an advantage. I have never had a GM say I will not deal with you because of your age that's ludicrous. Does Francisco Vera get scrutinized more because he's black, No because he is one of the best GM's in the game. Does Justin Tiehen or Rob Mullin get scrutinized because of there age I should hope not there are 27 other GM's who wished they are where they are so I think it's all to do about nothing.

 

2D) I grew up idolizing Sherwood Johnston as a kid. I used to wear his number in little league, I used to swing like him, I had his poster on my wall. I think he was a winner and a great humanitarian. He was as good off the field as he was on it for all the charity work he did for the United Way and those funny commercials he and O.J. Simpson did so I would be honored if my club were like him not just on the field but off of it as well. His numbers and MVP's speak for themselves.

2nd Question

October 11th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Let's step away from baseball for a second.  Part of the reason for the interview is to introduce you to the citizens of Omaha.  So:

2A.  You have been an unabashed supporter of the Arkansas Governor, Bill Clinton, for President over President Bush.  In fact it has been noted that you've attended many of his fundraising ceremonies.  What is it about Governor Clinton that you see and so fully support?  Is it wise to be so political in the business of baseball, especially when most of your fan base is Republican?

2B.  You are no doubt aware of the rumours about yourself and Paula Abdul, is there any truth?  What is your relationship with Paula Abdul?

2C.  Due to your youth do you feel like you have a heavier burden than the other GM's?  In other words are you scrutinized more?  Can you hold your own with the more experienced and wisened GM's of EWB?

2D.  What former EWB player do you most respect and admire?  Why?

Re: 1st Question

October 10th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

First off let me just start off by saying that we expect to compete for or win the division every year. I don't think those goals are to outragous and if our players, staff and front office don't feel that way then we will never obtain ANY goals.

Secondly when we first got here in 1990 this organization was abismal had really no prospects and not much talent at the EWB level so we had to make wholesale changes across the board as far as coaches through out our minors to players etc. so remember this is just the 3rd year of wholesale change so our expectations can't be win the World Series in year 3 even though we now have a great team so we are doing things right now to set us up for years to come.

As far as this year I hired Joe Torre before the season as Billy Martin suprisingly retired before the season so we took a chance on Joe and it didn't work out in my eyes so I let Joe go after we were swept at Kansas City in the final weeks of the season while in a playoff hunt. My reasoning was this team DID underachieve and I thought to maybe give them a shot in the arm we give Lou Frye our AAA manager a chance to try to make the playoffs with a couple weeks to go it didn't work and were at where were at and I take blame for the managing decision as it did not work out in my opinion.

         If you look at our stats we were one of the better teams in EWB but it did not translate into victories for whatever reason. I admit I am continuely tinkering with our team to get it better for the future as far as talent and financial solvency for years to come so in that sense I maybe messing with team chemistry, but like I stated in the opening comments this is just year 3 of major change over and I have a plan that I am carrying out as we speak and I have Mr. Theisens full support because he knows what I am doing and what our plans are for the future.

 

 

Re: Interview Request

October 10th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

First off I know who the fuck you are I live in Omaha. Secondly yes I will do any interview. I am not afraid of criticism people who are that do this won't last very long and they do things for the wrong reasons. So set up a time with my secretary and we will talk.

                                                                                       Mike Gilmore

                                                                                     President and GM

                                                                                   Omaha Wolverines Org.

 

1st Question

October 10th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Mr. MikeG,
If you choose to accept my invitation, question number 1.
Mike Kelly

Did the Omaha Wolverines meet expectations this year by going 82-80?  If yes, then what can fans expect to raise those questions, and considering the talent aren't the expectations artificially low?  If no, why did this team fail to do better and what exactly were the expectations?

One more thing about Ralston

September 26th, 2008 by Admirals GM

He didn't play there in the regular season, but just before the playoffs started our minor league Czar Chuck Tanner decided to demote veteran OF Darryl Bryant to play for the Rams during the postseason.  I don't have access to Bryant's stats, but according to Rob he played well during the playoffs.

 

Incidentally, Bryant, who is now 28 and was the AL Rookie of the year for Omaha back in 1988, is presently rated as "Probably overmatched at Single A," according to Tanner.  What a decline it's been for him.  We will release him this offseason, and I doubt any other team will pick him up, unless one of you does for sentimental reasons.

Ralston Rams

September 26th, 2008 by Admirals GM

The Ralson Rams have won the 1992 Nebraska League Championship.  This is the 3rd league championship in Ralston History; the other banners, which hang in the gymnasium of the local high school (for complicated contractual reasons having to do with the lease of the local Orville Smith Field), are from 1974 and 1979, so it's the first one in awhile.  For what it's worth, this now ties Ralston with several other Nebraska League teams for most championships all-time: Ralston, the South Omaha Vaqueros, the Elkhorn Antlers, and the Council Bluffs Yellow Jackets all have 3 titles.  (Unlike other minor leagues, the Nebraska League has not been dominated by a single team, historically.)

 

The Rams were an unlikely champ this year.  For one thing, they're the minor league affiliate of the Washington Admirals, and the Admirals have an extremely weak minor league system, by all accounts.  In fact, no other Admiral affiliate finished above .500 besides Ralston; and several minor league affiliates finished at the bottom of their respective leagues.  For another thing, it's not as though the minor league talent Washington does have is concentrated in Ralston -- if anything, just the opposite.  Admiral executives will tell you that they're more-or-less content with their high minor league talent (in AAA ball), and hopeful regarding their low minor league talent (in R and SA), but they feel like there's something of a hole in the middle (A and AA).  This is especially true on offense.  If you look at the Rams' roster right now, you'll see at most 3 marginal prospects -- meaning players who have an outside chance to become ML backups, but who do not project to ever become starters -- and a bunch of minor league filler.  Admittedly, their pitching staff does appear to have more potential -- perhaps as many as 4 pitchers project to have a chance at making a ML roster in their career.  But, bottom line: the Rams are not an especially talented team, when it comes to potential.

 

Perhaps strangest of all, Ralston began the season without a manager, due to administrative oversight.  Somehow, the players and coaches down in Ralston didn't let the folks up in Seattle know about this until April 18th of this year, well after the season had started.  At that point, wanting to hire someone to takeover the job, Admiral executives felt like all the best managerial prospects had been snatched up already, during the offseason.  And so, they decided to hire a 1 year stopgap at manager: Nolan Smith.  Instead of hiring Smith to a long term contract, Ralston offered him just a 1 year deal, figuring that after the year they would instantly let him go and pursue a bigger name or someone with more managerial potential.  But out of nowhere, Smith led the (relatively) talent-less Rams to a wild card spot, and ultimately to the championship.  Now, even though scouts would rank Smith as probably the worst manager in the entire Washington franchise, the Admirals have to make a decision.  How could they justify letting him go, as was the original plan, given that Smith has succeeded at the minor league level while no other minor league manager did this year for Washington?

Johnny Orker's Playoff Power Rankings: Closers

September 21, 2008 by Banditos GM

Here is my personal opinion of the strength of the playoff teams by Closer:

1) Ned Gordon, Austin-  This spot is almost a toss up between Gordon and Hearn.  Gordon gets the mark.  He is scarily consistent and at age 28 hitting his peak.

2) Frank "Mounds" Hearn, Boston- Hearn has the wickedest stuff in baseball with master control.  Hearn is the ideal closer and will help Boston in the late innings.

3) Joe Murphy, St. Louis-  Ever since Murphy became a closer in Portland and then in St. Louis he has been excellent.  Murphy is a K king.  Opponents are hitting a horrid .159 against Murphy.

4) Gary Olson, NY-  Olson falls to 4th despite leading baseball in saves with 50.  This is due to Olson's relative inexperience.  This is his 1st year as a closer and saving 50 games for a team that wins 107 is commendable but not overly impressive.  With a 90-92 mph fastball and a weakness with movement Olson also doesn't intimidate like the others.

5) Jovan Simic, Atlanta- Simic took over the closing role for Atlanta late in the season, but the 39 yr old is no rookie.  He's a journeyman with several years as a closer.  His experience gives him an advantage a puts him higher on the list.

6) Lou "Franchise" Bennett, Miami-  Bennett took over the closing role from Whit Gaul.  Miami was stung by the loss of Punk Perez but looks to have finally found a solution.  Bennett in his first real year has been amazing, 20 saves and a sub 2.00 ERA.  Bennett, however, is still untested.  He also may be playing above his head, as most scouts did not have him on par with the above mentioned closers.

7) Alfonso Santana, KC- Santana is also in his 1st year as a closer after many years of coming out of the bullpen.  Santana has been reliable for KC but not extraordinary.  He has a +3.00 ERA, scouts rate him as mediocre in all categories.  Think of him as a Kevin Gregg.

8) Carlos Hernandez, Washington- Hernandez with an ERA nearing 5.00 would have been replaced by almost any other organization.  Washington has stuck by him pointing out that he does not have many BS and his runs given up are largely irrelevant.  Washington also lacks any definite replacement candidate.  Lopez has blown up and Davidson looks to be more of a set up man.  Perhaps during the playoffs we'll see Gustavo Chavez more in relief, a conversion may be imminent.

Kingsport Inferno: Your 1992 Appalachian League Champions!

September 21, 2008 by Banditos GM

The Kingsport Inferno are the 1992 Champions of the Appalachian League (R)!!!! Round of Applause.

The Inferno are a R affiliate of the New York 5 Points.  The Inferno earned their first pennant ever this year finishing 1st in the West Division with an 86-76 Record.  They also earned their first playoff spot ever!

In the Championship they faced the 111-51 Danville Samurai (Boston Irish) and upset them in 5 games (4-1).

Is this a precursor to NY over Boston???  Time will tell.

Irony:  The Kingsport Inferno are managed by former player Tomas "Matchbox" Perez.  The press in Kingsport, Tennessee jumped all over this, using numerous wordplay variations on "Matchbox" and "Inferno."

Kingsport:  Kingsport is in the northeast part of Tennessee, in an area called "the mountain empire."  Kingsport has about 44,000 people and is mostly all white.  I imagine kinda hillbilly-ish but I could be wrong.  However, they are known for publicly hanging an elephant in the early 1900's.  see below.

On September 12, 1916, Kingsport residents demanded the death of circus elephant Mary (a five ton Asian elephant who performed in the Sparks World Famous Shows Circus) for her killing of a city hotel worker named Walter "Red" Eldridge, who was hired the day before as an assistant elephant trainer by the circus.

On the evening of September 12, Eldridge was killed by Mary in Kingsport, Tennessee while taking her to a nearby pond to splash and frolic and drink. There are several accounts of his death but the most widely accepted version is that he prodded her behind the ear with a hook after she reached down to nibble on a watermelon rind. She went into a rage, snatched Eldridge with her trunk, threw him against a drink stand and deliberately stepped on his head, crushing it. One of his ears was never found.

The details of the aftermath are confused in a haze of sensationalist newspaper stories and folklore. Most accounts indicate that she calmed down afterward and didn't charge the onlookers, who were chanting, "Kill the elephant!" Apparently, within minutes, a local blacksmith tried to oblige, firing more than two dozen rounds at the elephant with little effect. Newspapers published claims that Murderous Mary had killed several workers in the past and noted that she was larger than the world famous Jumbo the elephant. Mary was impounded by the local sheriff, and the leaders of several nearby towns threatened not to allow the circus to visit if Mary was included. The circus owner, Charlie Sparks, reluctantly decided that the only way to quickly resolve the potentially ruinous situation was to hold a public execution. On the following day, a foggy and rainy September 13, 1916, she was transported by rail to Erwin, Tennessee where a crowd of over 2,500 people (including most of the town's children) assembled in the Clinchfield railroad yard to watch the hanging.

Admiral-Ball

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Having gone through as many game logs as I have, I've now formed some views about what strengths/weaknesses I especially value in players.  It's funny, but I really do have more sense of this now than I had previously acquired from being a baseball fan for 25 years.  Sometimes my assessments match up with conventional wisdom, but sometimes they don't.  At any rate, I think I'm slowly developing a philosophy of Admiral-Ball (meant to be akin to Billy Beane's Moneyball in some ways, but it's a different sort of thing).  Here are a few views...

 

1. Strikeouts are completely irrelevant for a leadoff hitter.  Sometimes, even today, I hear baseball analysts say "this guy strikes out to much to bat leadoff."  I have no idea what they mean.  All I care about is whether my leadoff hitter makes an out, not *how* he does.

 

2. Strikeouts are absolutely crucial for a middle of the lineup hitter.  Dave Tyler convinced me of this.  Tyler would come up so often with runners on, where just about any ball in play would drive someone in or at least move them over.  And he would K, killing a rally.  I absolutely would not want an Adam Dunn on my team; or at least, if I had him, I wouldn't want him batting higher than #7.  If I have a guy who strikes out 150+ times, I want him batting leadoff.  There, his K's won't kill ralleys, because they probably won't occur with runners on base.

 

3. OBP is absolutely crucial for a top of the order hitter (#1, #2) or a bottom of the order guy (#7, #8, #9).  Way more important than batting average.  David Kimble convinced me of this.  He would hit .230, but be on base all the time with an OBP of .380 or so.  This almost passes for conventional wisdom now, so I won't dwell on it.

 

4. OBP is hugely overrated for middle of the lineup hitters (#3-#6).  Barry Bonds walked all the time.  Why?  Because pitchers calculated it was more in their interest to walk him (or at least pitch him carefully) than to give him an at bat.  In other words, Barry Bonds was *less* valuable because he walked so much than if he had batted more (at least by opposing pitchers' calculations).  Bonds is a dramatic case, but I think the same principle applies to other middle of the order hitters: I want them using their at bats to drive in runs, not draw walks to let the bottom of the order players try to drive them in.  Again, Dave Tyler helped convince me of this.  He always had a high OBP (despite a low BA), and it always struck me as pretty worthless.  Great, Tyler drew a walk.  Now that means if Min-chul Pak can hit a home run, we might score.  Good luck!

 

I have other principles as well, but I'll leave it at these for now.  These principles helped lead me to trade Dave Tyler for Will Lund: Tyler had a much higher OBP (like, .360 to .280) but way more K's (like, 130 to 65).  In a middle-of-the-order hitter, I would much rather have Lund's attributes.  And so, I was very happy with the production I got out of Lund in 1991, even if his VORP sucked.  (His bad VORP is based too much on having a bad OBP, which again I don't care about.)

 

Applying this to Miguel Torres, I think Torres' (relatively) high OBP is pretty worthless.  BUT, I take his low K's as pretty good.  I also am impressed by his high RBI total -- some analysts think that RBIs are an overrated stat, but I think they're completely wrong.

Re: Miguel Torres

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Torres is a unique player and it's been hard to figure out for me how to deal with him.  We stuck him in the middle of the lineup for most of the first months before sending him to hit 7th or 8th.

Once again I'm not dissatisfied with the trade because of the circumstances.  We needed to get rid of Kim's salary, needed an everyday outfielder, and needed more raw power in the lineup.  Here's how I view Torres now and why I think he'll work in our lineup.  We don't necessarily COUNT on him to do shit.  When he was in the middle of the lineup, it was bad for us.  With players like Carranza and Hinkle getting on base a lot, we need someone hitting behind them that can get hits.  Torres was, at the time, hitting below .200.  Sure he walks a lot but really still only at a ratio of a little more than once every 2 games.  So in situation after situation, Torres would make costly outs.

Moving him to 7th takes the pressure off in a way.  We replace the middle of the order with some higher contact/obp hitters.  Now whatever Torres does is like a bonus.  We don't necessarily need him to hit to win.  He comes up to bat with RISP less often and it makes it easier for us to take a gamble, in the sense that if he hits a HR then great, if not well we will move on.  So having a 7 hitter capable of hitting 30 HR is good, we just must make sure we never have to count on him to go back to the middle of the order.  Since we are paying him the league minimum there is no cost/benefit analysis to be made.  This reasoning will all go to shit once he starts asking for a multimillion dollar contract.  Then we will be forced to decide if his production is worth it.

Miguel Torres

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Miguel Torres is the player acquired by Miami from San Antonio in exchange for Dong-min Kim.  This year at least, he's turned out to be very different from the player he appeared to be before, and also very different from his ratings, at least in some respect.

 

Here is his stats line...

 

.224/27/87/0.

 

The good power production and horrible batting average might make you think of, say, Rob Deer or Pete Incaviglia.  But there are important differences.  For one thing, Torres doesn't really strike out much at all -- just 52 Ks in 492 At Bats.  I'm personally convinced that low K's is a hugely desirable feature, especially in a middle of the lineup hitter (it matters less for top and bottom hitters).  So, I think this is a big positive.  In addition, Torres walks a whole lot: 78 times so far this year.  Because of this, his OBP is an almost respectable .330.  Still not great by any stretch of the imagination, but much, much better than his .224 BA.

 

Because of the OBP in particular, Torres has a pretty solid VORP of 18.0. 

 

Compare this to, say Will Lund in 1991.

 

That year, Lund's stats were .231/18/74/1.

 

A slightly better batting average, albeit with less power (although Lund did have somewhat less playing time).  So, there are differences, but still close enough that you might think of them as similar players.  But here's a big difference: Lund walked not much at all, just 35 times all year.  And because of this, his OBP was an atrocious .280.  Consequently, his VORP was a horrible -7.4, meaning that your average replacement player was significantly better than Lund.  I'm not necessarily surprised that Torres ranks higher than Lund; I am a little surprised how big the difference is though, given that superficially, Lund 1991 strikes me as similar to Torres 1992.

 

Anyway, I asked Miami awhile ago whether they were satisfied with Torres, and they said something like obviously not, treating the question as rhetorical.  But I mean it seriously, and I ask it again.  Suppose it turns that Torres never improves; this is the player you've gotten.  Would you be satisfied with his mixture of power, run production, and walks, given his low batting average?  I think I might be, if I were in their circumstances.  But he's such a unique player, in some ways, that I'm not sure -- I would have to go through the game logs to get a full sense of whether I believe in him or not.