October 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM
Here is a run-down ot the 25 highest players in EWB right now,
with an assessment of whether their contracts are good or bad for the
teams who are paying them. I think you'll see a surprising number of
these contracts look pretty bad. In ascending order...
#25: Francisco Murillo, 1B, Denver. Getting $7.9M thru 1995.
Contract Grade: C-. After being a .300/20/90 player for years, Murillo
dropped off dramatically last year, the first year of his contract,
going .257/11/61. And he's 33, meaning he'll be 35 when his contract
runs out. He's off to a decent start in 1993 though.
#24: German Ortiz, RF, Carolina. Getting $7.9M thru 1994. Grade:
B+. It's doubtful that 34-year-old Ortiz will duplicate his MVP year
of 1993, but Carolina gets a lot of credit for keeping his contract
short. Even if Ortiz fades -- and he's off to a decent start this year
-- Carolina hasn't overly committed themselves.
#23: Martin Diaz, RF, Memphis. Getting $8M thru 1993. Grade: D.
Diaz, a lifetime Razorback (and one of the key components on their 1987
World Series team), used to be one of the better players in the game.
At this point, though, he's washed up: .245/11/50 last year. Worse,
he's out for all of 1993. The contract was signed back in 1990, and
Diaz has been nowhere near the 23rd best player in the game during its
duration.
#22: Desmond MacGilp, SP, Las Vegas. Getting: $8M thru 1993.
Grade: B. MacGilp, a former Gibson award winner (1986), lost 20 games
last year for Las Vegas, but he's still a decent pitcher at age 31.
Projected to be a free agent after the year, I bet he he gets a decent
deal this offseason, not too far from his current contract.
#21: Ben Barnard, LF, Detroit. Getting: $8M thru 1994. Grade:
F. A horrible, horrible deal. It was originally signed with Denver,
back in 1990: 5 years for $40M. Based on his production up to that
point -- he was like .268/22/80 in 1990 -- it already looked like a
mistake for the team. But then Denver traded him to Detroit in
exchange for Cruisers' legend Tom Mitchell, and Barnard responded by
breaking his kneecap. With age and injuries, the guy is just a shell
of his former self. He batted .186/0/16 in 1992, and he's hitting just
.210 with extensive playing time so far in 1993.
#20: Dong-min Kim, 3B, San Antonio. Getting: $8.1M thru 1993.
Grade: C-. Would be lower, but for the fact it ends after the year.
This contract always seemed like a bad idea, and it's gotten even
worse, as Kim has fallen off. After batting .245/11/58 in 1992, Kim is
off to a .220 start in 1993. The guy still has a heck of an agent, so
who knows, maybe he'll get another over bloated deal this offseason.
Looks like Miami unloaded him at the right time.
#19: Correy Dillon, 3B, Austin. Getting $8.23 thru 1996 (thanks
to an extension). Grade: C+. Look, Dillon is an alright player --
last year he went .266/15/65. But he's 35 now and his ratings are
starting to fade. His original contract was supposed to run out after
1993; why Austin agreed to an extension is beyond me. Fearless
prediction: the grade of this contract will drop to D or F by 1995.
#18: Cory Bradford, OF, New York. Getting: $8.2M thru 1994.
Grade: F. The mind boggles at how good New York could be if they
weren't carrying around this atrocity. Even in his prime, prior to
signing this deal, he wasn't that great: he regularly batted .220 with
28 HR or so back in the mid 1980s. Why New York thought this merited a
5 year $40M contract prior to 1990 is beyond me. But now, he's dropped
far below even that level of production. His ratings are down to 2-3
contact-power. It would be unsurprising if New York eventually cuts
him and eats the remainder of the deal.
#17: Vincent Carter, C, Denver. Getting $8.4M thru 1994. Grade:
A. Obviously, one of the best players in the game; perhaps even the
best ever. Things will get more complicated when Denver considers
re-signed the mid-30s Carter next year.
#16: Kevin Morris, SP, Miami. Getting $8.5M thru 1995.
Grade: B. Too early to say, but off to a great start. Think of the B
grade as a default setting.
#15: Mike Smith, RF, Cleveland. Getting $8.5M thru 1993. Grade:
C. One of the premier power hitters of his era (the 1980s), Smith has
dropped off recently with age (he's 35). He hit like .228/23/80 last
year. Still, he is at least something of a producer, and given that
the contract runs out after the year, Cleveland gets a bit of a pass
for taking him on via trade.
#14: George Banks, SP, Miami. Getting $8.5M thru 1993. Grade:
A-. On the one hand, Banks has been the best pitcher in baseball over
the last 5 years or so. On the other hand, he's fading. Did Banks
merit a one year deal worth this much right now? I mostly give Miami
the benefit of doubt, but dock them a half letter grade given Banks'
slows start in 1993 (hence the A- instead of straight A).
#13: Stephen Caldwell, LF, Detroit. Getting $8.6M thru 1993.
Grade: F. You'll notice that this gives Detroit two F contracts (the
other was Barnard); at least the Caldwell deal ends after the year.
Caldwell was a solid producer back in his prime, in the mid 1980s: he
had 5 contact 4 power then, and was consistently a contender for the
batting title with Houston (he won the thing in 1986). Then Atlanta
signed him to a huge 7 year, $55M deal prior to 1987. In the first
several years of the deal, Caldwell continued to be pretty good. But
then, with age and injuries, he started to fade a little in 1989.
After Detroit traded for him in 1991, he really took a nosedive, and
his 3-2 ratings have led him to be limited to just 8 pinch hitting at
bats this year. That's a lot to pay a bad pinch hitter. Again, those
7 year deals almost always are a mistake -- it's so hard for a good
player so sustain himself for 7 years.
#12: Don Kelly, RF, El Paso. Getting: $8.5M thru 1995. Grade:
A. Fact: his ratings are fading a bit -- he'd down to a 4-4 hitter
(5-4 potential), off of 5-5 in his prime. Still, he's one of the best
players in the game today.
#11: Dan Johnson, 2B, Cincinnati. Getting: $8.9M thru 1995.
Grade: A-. Johnson is one of the most overlooked players in the game.
He's also one of the best: went .337/17/84/41 last year, the first of
the deal. The only reason I down grade the deal is that Johnson is
about to turn 33, and I worry a little about his age.
#10: Michael Bowden, SP, Dallas. Getting: $8.9M thru 1993.
Grade: A-. Still one of the best ranked pitchers in the game (12 pts.)
at age 35, the contract is downgraded slightly due to the fact that
Bowden lost 18 games last year (despite having a 3.38 ERA). A free
agent to be after the season, Bowden should still be able to command
top dollar. In fact, his yearly salary might well go up, even though
he'll be 36 next year.
#9: Reggie Phillips, 3B, Chicago. Getting: $9.2M thru 1996.
Grade: C-. I think the best move that my predecessor in the G.M.
office for Washington made was not to re-sign Phillips after 1989. I
mean, don't get me wrong, Phillips is a decent player -- he went
.273/17/94 last year, and continues to be ranked among the best 3B in
the game. But does that sort of performance really merit the 7 year,
$64M contract he got prior to 1990? Hardly. Plus, 1996 is a long ways
away still. There's every reason to think Phillips skills will
diminish significantly between now and then, making the contract even
worse.
#8: Jaime Colon, 3B, Atlanta. Getting $9.4M thru 1994. Grade:
C+. Call him Reggie Phillips Jr. Since we took over back in 1990,
Colon has been consistently among the highest paid players in the game
(across multiple contracts). Hard to see why. He's a decent player,
but how much better off would Atlanta be if they had funneled that
money elsewhere? Colon gets graded above Phillips because the deal is
shorter.
#7: Norman Hopkins, 3B, Austin. Getting: $9.6M thru 1993. Grade:
B-. Here is what we're learning: if you are a decent third baseman,
you can earn a ton of money. Again, Hopkins is a nice player, just as
Colon and Phillips are (and Kim used to be). But really, $9.6M? The
market for third basemen seems over-inflated. That probably redounds
to Porter Scott's advantage.
#6: Emilio Romano, SP, Omaha. Getting: $9.9M thru 1996. Grade:
B+. Romano has been very good in his first year and a quarter with
Omaha -- in fact, he's been one of the best pitchers in the game. And
he's still young at 27. Still, he hasn't yet gone out and posted a
Gibson-caliber year, and the length and money with the contract leave
me a little nervous. If Romano goes on to win a Gibson award, this
contract could be upgraded. If he starts to lose pitching points, it
could be downgraded.
#5: Paul Sims, 1B, Kansas City. Getting: $10M thru 1994. Grade:
B+. Sims' ratings have slipped a little, but he's off to a red-hot
start in 1993, and he was pretty good in both 1991 and 1992. Still, I
suspect Omaha could have signed him for less. Remember the lesson of
Gerald Lewis: Lewis asked for like $12M, but signed for just $7M. Sims
asked for $10M, or maybe slightly more, and Omaha gave in. This isn't
a big criticism, because none of us knew what we were doing back then
-- if I had gone after Sims, I would have offered him exactly what he
was asking for too. In retrospect, though, I think Omaha (and now
K.C.) could have gotten Sims for less.
#4: Mike Robinson, LF, Washington. Getting: $10.3M thru 1994.
Grade: B+. Signed after the 1988 season, the deal has had its ups and
downs. Ups: Robinson won the AL MVP in 1989 and 1992, and Washington
won the World Series in 1989 while making an appearance in 1992.
Downs: in both 1990 and 1991, Robinson struggled while Washington
missed the playoffs. Still, the ups outweigh the downs. A year from
now, I will be interested in re-signing Robinson to an extension. I
hope I can get him to come down from his $10M price tag, though.
#3: Emilio Cabrera, RF, Montreal. Getting: $10M thru 1993.
Grade: F. The gold-standard of bad contracts, it's hard to see why
Montreal was willing to take him off the hands of Carolina last year.
The good news for the Knights is that the deal ends after this year,
meaning they will have a lot of money to work with this offseason.
Could be interesting, given that they're an up-and-coming team as it
is. This is what Cabrera, a two-time-MVP has been reduced to: when he
leaves your team, its' great news because you now have way more money.
#2: Kyle Gregg, SS, Detroit. Getting: $10.8M thru 1993. Grade:
C-. Really? Kyle Gregg is the 2nd highest paid player in EWB? How?
Again, the guy is a decent player, and unlike others on the list, he's
not fading too badly with age (he's 33). But look, he's a guy who will
go like: .292/5/50/20. That's what he's been for years, and it's not
like he was dramatically different from that before he signed his
present deal. Again, we see a pattern in Detroit: horrible, horrible
contracts. Does this force a re-evaluation of their past GM? (I
forget his name, but I think he's now with Las Vegas. In his defense:
Las Vegas seems to be turning things around as a franchise, since he
took over.)
#1: Aaron Ellis, 2B, Houston. Getting: $11M thru 1995. Grade:
B. A very good player, who has even competed for MVP honos on
occasion. But as I mentioned in connection with Sims, this contract
was from our earlier, more naive era. Again, think Gerald Lewis: Lewis
asked for $12M, settled for $7.5M Ellis asked for $11M, but I bet he
would have settled for $6.5M or so. Again, I don't blame Omaha; we
didn't understand how things worked back then. But, it means that the
contract receives a lesser grade than it otherwise might. Also: must
be noted that 3 of the top 6 contracts here were handed out by Mike
(although Ellis and Sims went on to new teams). Makes you think that
EWB agents loved having a 13-year-old run Omaha.
GENERAL CONCLUSION: On the whole, a C+ average. Avoid long term
contracts, especially 7 year deals. Third basemen seem to be
especially overpaid. And the best way to get undermarket players is to
sign them to extensions before they can even come up for free agency
(Vincent Carter, Doug Kelly, etc.).