Earl Weaver Baseball League

Trade Possibilities

March 19th, 2009 by Admirals GM

As I've mentioned, I originally thought this offseason was going to see a lot of big moves for us.  This hasn't happened yet, but I'm thinking about a couple of trades that could make it happen.  I'm not at all sure I want to do these trades yet.  However, before investing a lot of time and energy in them, I thought I would float them.  Unfortunatley, both trades are with teams I control, so I need everybody's input.  Also, these trades may (probably) depend on one another, meaning that if one gets nixed, I might not want to do the other one.

 

1. CHICAGO

 

Paul Sims <--> Michael Bowden

 

So, it might seem unrealistic to trade Sims immediately after signing him, but I think that can be explained away: it's sort of (not exactly) like the sort of sign-and-trade deals you see in the NBA, or like the sign-and-trade deal between the Yankees and Tigers over Gary Sheffield a couple years ago.  Basic justification: Chicago has super SP strength, but very little offense (multiple starters with negative VORP last year), and an especially horrible OF situation.  Plus, Chicago has a huge age problem.  And, while Sims is no spring chicken, his age of 32 is much younger than Bowden's 38.  Their contracts are nearly identical in terms of salary.  Frankly, from Chicago's perspective, I think this is the sort of free agent they should've pusued last year, instead of getting Bowden, which didn't address a weakness.  Similarly, from our perspective, we probably should've gone all in for Bowden last year, rather than saving the money for Sims this year.

 

2. HOUSTON

 

Joe MacGregor + Jose Garcia <--> Aaron Ellis + Lloyd O'Neal OR Dan Hicks

 

Houston's biggest weakness is SPs.  In their 5 man rotation, they have 1 9 pt. pitcher and 4 8 pt. pitchers (including Scott Riley, who has fallen a ton).  So they should certainly want MacGregor.  However, there is no way they can take on MacGregor's contract unless they ship Ellis.  I'm of mixed thoughts about taking on Ellis.  On the bright side, his ratings still look solid:4-4-4-3-4.  On the other hand, he really fell off in 1994: .273/9/51, and a VORP of just 3.7 in 91 Games and 348 ABs.  Also, he has fallen a good deal in the position rankings: down to just the 11th best 2B in EWB now.  Plus, as is well established, his contract of $11M is way over the top, it's from the days when we didn't know how FA's worked and so Mike just offered him what he requested.  Now, both O'Neal and Hicks were backups in 1994, and project to be backups in 1995, but they're both very talented.  O'Neal has 4-5 actual, but is stuck behind Juan Bravo at 1B.  One bad rating that O'Neal has is eye: 2 (actual and potential).  To my mind, that's almost a good thing, given that I want him to be a run producer.  But in the computer's mind, that's a major weakness.  I suspect that's at least part of why Bravo still plays ahead of him.  Hick also has a lot of talent, but he's still more potential than actual: 5-4 potential, but 4-3 actual.  Last year, Hicks was the #7 prospect in EWB.  Right now, he's stuck behind veteran Geoffrey Barnes, who went .323/11/67 last year.  Now, if Barnes were the only issue, then I think Houston would probably just want to stick with Hicks: maybe make him a backup for another year, and then let him take over full time starter duties in 1996 or 1997.  *However*, another factor here is that Houston also has top notch C prospect Robert Bryant down in A ball, and Bryant has 5-4 potential and already 3-3 actual.  In terms of overall potential, Bryant is ahead of Hicks.  In terms of actual, Bryant is only a little behind.  In light of this, Hicks is kind of getting squeezed: he has Barnes ahead of him for now, and Bryant rearing up behind him.  That might make Hicks available.

 

Here are 3 more points to help you think about this trade.

 

FIRST: What exactly would happen to Houston if they agreed?  Garcia would start at SS, while presumably current SS Paul Ellison would move over to 2B to replace Ellis.  Garcia over Ellis is an ugrade.  They lose O'Neal/Hicks, but neither player started last year.  Offensively/Defensively, then, this trade would make Houston better as compared to last year.  And then we move to pitching, where it's obviously nothing but a huge improvement.  Again, right now their ace Scott Riley is an 8 pt. pitcher.  That's not enough to compete.  MacGregor is still 11.

 

SECOND: Remember how for years Houston had the top mL system in EWB?  Well, those prospects like Hicks/Bryant/O'Neal/Bravo are now either in the majors or close.  Because a number of these players play the same position, Houston really does need to make trades if they're going to make the most of their talent.

 

THIRD: Here is how I originally thought of the deal.  Remember, a prior deal that was on the table was Urive+Hearn for Garcia+MacGregor.  Well, Hearn is better than Ellis at this point, and a much better contract too.  In terms of ML accomplishment, Urive is better than O'Neal.  Now, I like O'Neal better, but I'm not sure the computer would agree, given that O'Neal only has a 2 eye while Urive has 4.  In light of that, a plausible case can be made that both components of this trade from Houston's side are worse than the 2 components from Boston's side.

 

3. ???

 

George Banks <--> ????

 

What I'm looking for in exchange for Banks will depend in part on whether these other trades happen.  If they do, then these other trades will lead to an increase in payroll for me, since Ellis makes more than MacGregor.  To offset that increase, I will want to trade Banks for either a mL prospect or, at most, someone making the ML minimum.  If these other trades don't happen, then salary won't be as big of a factor, and I'll be looking at Detroit's Logan Elmore among other possibilities.

Re: '94-'95 Human Rule 5 Draftees

March 18th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Chris Martin needs to be returned to Washington.

 

He was no small part of why we were willing to do the Robinson trade in the first place.  If the computer is "protected" from its own stupidity, in that we prevent ourselves from claiming players off of waivers or preventing certain rip-off trades that the computer itself would agree to, then human owners should be protected from this sort of error.  Otherwise, I wouldn't have agreed to do my Draft 5 protections over Yugma, I would have demanded that Yugma stop, that I be sent a list of my unprotected players over e-mail, and that we would start the offseason back up at a later date.  If Martin wasn't protected, it's not because I otherwise had too much talent to cover with my 40 man roster (as might be the case with some of the other drafted players), or that I gambled that he wouldn't be taken and lost.  No, Martin is good enough that he *will* start the season on our ML roster, very possibly in our starting rotation (depending on how other trades go).  The only reason Martin was left unprotected is that I was trying to be accommodating and do the Rule 5 Draft quickly, over Yugma.

 

So, here is our trade offer to Dallas

 

Martin <--> $1.

 

That's 1 dollar, not thousand or million.

 

Also, let Dallas know that there are consequences if they don't return Martin.  As their assistant GM, I can sign off on trades.  Trades that will send their franchise back years.  Decades even.  If Martin is not returned, here is our first trade offer, to Omaha...

 

Omaha trades Dallas non-prospect P James McCann (SA), Dallas gives up $7 Million, cash.

 

Speaking as Dallas's assistant GM, I can report that we love this deal, and so if Mike gives the green light we agree as well.  IF Martin isn't returned, that is.  If Martin is returned, we'll re-think the McCann offer.

 

Omaha in 1995.

March 16th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Omaha just won 108 games this past year, + the World Series.

 

2. Omaha really only loses 1 free agent of value this offseason, Gerald Lewis.

 

3. They already have their replacement for Lewis: Dan Parker.  In many ways, Parker looks pretty similar to Lewis.  Just to simplify things, let's stipulate that the two players are equals.  To get Parker, Omaha didn't have to give up anyone who contributed to their 1994 team.  (They gave up Oyama, but Oyama didn't contribute in any way in 1994, so he's not a loss to that 108 win team.)

 

4. And yet, Omaha has $20M to spend this offseason.  They could conceivably sign Kevin Morris + Vincent Carter, say.  Or Tom Campbell + Dan Dawson.  In short, they could sign two upper-tier, elite free agents.

 

5. Summing up: the Omaha 1994 team was dominant.  And they didn't lose anyone (assumption: Lewis = Parker, so Lewis doesn't count as losing someone).  And yet, they get to add two superstars.

 

6. Conclusion: Omaha could really be loaded for 1995.

Re: New Trade Offer

March 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Okay, if Rob agrees with you and vetoes the Garcia trade, I'll just move on.  But regardless of how that goes, here are a few points I want to make about trades in general.

 

1. First, your counter-offer involves me giving up Garcia + Panchor Urive to get Mark St. John.  I appreciate the effort to make a counter-offer, but I'm sure you'd agree in retrospect that this isn't really reasonable.  On the assumption of your offer, Sergio Garcia's negative value is so great that in order to get St. John, who we all will agree sucks, I would need to add a Pancho Urive to the mix, where Urive is ranked the #13 player in EWB.  (I think he's overrated right now, but still.)  That is unrealistic.

 

We're all new to thinking so seriously about contracts, and especially about salary dumps.  And that mike make us reasonably hesitant -- overly cautious -- to permit such dumps.  But here it seems to me is a good way to proceed.  First, take the money of the Garcia contract.  Second, pretend like Dallas is just adding Garcia as a free agent, without giving up any talent back.  Third, ask yourself what other player could they reasonably expect to get for the total money involved.  To make this last principle concrete, let's add Matthew Spencer to the deal for me, a 10 pt. pitcher (9 potential) who's making the league minimum.  I would not agree to add Spencer, for reasons that will emerge.  But the general idea can be illustrated using Spencer.

 

Would Dallas take Garcia + Spencer in exchange for nothing, just salaries?  Yes, surely they would.  Garcia + Spencer are two 10 pt. pitchers, and the *average* salary for the two of them is about $3.75M.  Now, of course, Garcia is the "big" part of that average, while Spencer is the "little" part, but that doesn't matter.  Picture it like this.  Suppose Dallas was going on the free agent market, and were committed to signing 2 separate 10 pt. pitchers.  What price would be reasonable for them to expect to pay?  Surely, more than $3.75M.  But then, if that's right, Dallas should be happy to add Garcia + Spencer for salary alone, and they would be.

 

Now, how does St. John figure in?  I was thinking that he was a total loss.  I was supposing that if I acquired him, I might just release him.  Maybe I would give him a shot, but my rotation is pretty full as is, and so eventually releasing him was a highly likely option in my mind.  If my assessment of St. John's worth is right, then Dallas should be totally happy to see him go.  As good as Garcia + Spencer for nothing was for them, Garcia + Spencer in exchange for St. John is even better -- for them.  In fact, I as Washington would not do that deal, because it would be one-sided against me.

 

I dwell on this point because I think there's a tendency here to overstate the negative value of an inflated contract.  Garcia's contract is bad, let me just grant.  But it's nowhere near Garcia+Urive <--> St. John kind of bad.

 

2. The fact that free agency is looming never qualifies as an argument against a trade.  No team has money "saved up" for free agency.  What teams have is salary flexibility, flexibility which can be used either toward trades or toward free agents.  In fact, other things being equal, a smart team will prefer at this time to acquire new contracts via trade rather than new contracts via free agency.  This is because, other things being equal, contracts acquired via trade were inevitably signed years ago, at previous market value, rather than right now, at current market value.  Now, you might think that with Garcia, other things aren't equal because his salary is just too high.  Fine.  But the argument against acquiring Garcia should not depend in any way on the fact that free agency is looming.  If anything, the openness of money right now speaks in favor of trading for Garcia (and, more generally, in favor of trading for any player) at this moment.

 

I mention this point because I have other offers I might make either before Yugma or during Yugma.  The fact that free agency is looming is not a reason against any of those trades.

 

Let me note that this is compatible with Rob's point about the trading deadline.  If it turns out, say, that San Antonio is competing for the division next year, and that Sergio Garcia is just the player to push them over the top, then they might be willing to acquire him then, even though they are not willing to acquire him now.  That's not because right now is a bad time for any team to make a trade -- it's a great time to make a trade.  Rather, that's because the trading deadline, when you're in contention, is the very best possible time to make a trade.  At the trading deadline, sometimes you knowingly allow yourself to be screwed over in order to get a deal done, if you're convinced that that's the deal to win it.  In contrast, no team right now should be willing to allow themselves to be screwed over.  However, the fact that the trading deadline is an unbelievably good time to make a trade does not mean that right now is still at least a very good time to trade. 

 

 

New Trade Offer

March 16th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Taking in Rob's last point about how to factor in Sergio Garcia's when making a trade, it seems to me there's a couple ways you could do this.  (A) You could attach a good player with a good contract in the deal, so that even though the other team has to take on Garcia's contract, they also get positive value.  Here would be a (really) extreme version of this: I trade Garcia + Bicknell for Elmore Logan.  I take it that in that scenario, Detroit would be willing to swallow Garcia's contract.  (B) I could take a bad contract back in exchange.  I'm going to try (B) here...

 

TO DALLAS (me, so I need outside approval)

 

Sergio Garcia <--> Mark St. John

 

St. John was even worse than Garcia in 1994, going 8-16, 6.08, 1.49 WHIP, 0.6 VORP.  He's also a good deal older: 37, vs. Garcia's 32.  He has also seen his ratings slip with age, with last year being the first year of slip, and a horrible record to show.

 

St. John is scheduled to make $3.1M in both 1995 and 1996.  So, he's a bad contract in his own right, although still cheaper than Garcia.  On the other hand, because of age + present ratings, I take it that everyone will agree Garcia is the much better pitcher both right now, and going forward for the duration of their contracts.

 

I'm willing to do this only because I have a highly specific offseason plan, which requires freeing up a very specific amount of money to make a free agent push.

Detroit

March 11th, 2009 by Admirals GM

(Rob)

 

Does Detroit have any interest in Garcia?  At this point, they could have him cheap as I don't want to spend much more time thinking about trade possibilities.  Again, I would emphasize that at this point, Garcia has ratings basically matching Romano's, and is cheaper than Romano.

1994 mL Wrap-up Notes

March 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. EL (AA) pitcher of the year is Adrian Ramos of Bowie for the Carolina organization.  Ramos, a 1st round pick in 1992, had a remarkable 303 K's in just 232 IPs.

 

2. Who led the IL (AAA) in HR's?  Doug Buckley, yet another 1B from the Boston Irish organization.  Buckley went for .285/39/130 this year for the Richmond Lava.  He saw a little action at the ML level, and palyed 4 innings at 3B, even thoug his 3B rating is non-existent.  Figures to compete with Pancho Urive for best-hitting-worst-fielding 3B in the Boston organization.

 

3. Watch out for Lonnie O'Rorke in the Atlanta organization.  O'Rorke signed with the Confederates as an undrafted free agent back on 4/1/91, and was very slow to develop at first.  He only played 9 games all year in 1991, despite not having any injury problems.  This year in AAA, though, O'Rorke exploded, going .271/34/121.  O'Rorke, a 1B with 3-4 contact-power ratings, could see major league action in '95.

 

4. Lionel White Eagle of the KC organization has lost some luster.  Ranked as the top SP prospect in all of baseball coming into the year, White Eagle was thought to have 11 pt. potential.  Now it's down to 9 pts, and White Eagle has grown "very unhappy" with the Wheat Kings being so slow in moving him up the ladder.  Look for White Eagle to be in KC's rotation this year, despite his recent disapointments.

 

5 Former NL MVP runner up Ken Cooper batted .288/28/74 in AAA this year in just 98 games, meaning he projects to around 45 HRs.  But, when he got called up for Pittsburgh, he went just .173/1/8 in over 50 at bats.

 

6. This next one is amazing.  So I'm checking out St. Louis's AAA team, and I see they have Reese Maxwell, one of the best SP prospects in baseball.  Maxwell has 10 pt. potential and should be in the majors next year -- yet another bright young Savage arm.  But then I check out his teammate: SP Paul Morgan.  Morgan's (present) actual ratings are 5-3-4.  And he has 8 fatigue.  That's a 12 pt. actual (not potential) pitcher with 8 fatigue that St. Louis failed to bring up for their pennant race.  If I remember correctly, there are only 2 12 pt. pitchers in EWB today, Ed Jackson and Tom Campbell.  Morgan is their equal.  Anyway, Morgan was 17-5 and 2.77 this year in AAA, with a WHIP of just 1.00 (fantastic) and 286 K's in 198 IP, for a rate of 13 K/9.  Those are almost unheard of numbers for a SP.  The 23-year-old Morgan has a 96 MPH fastball, but was only a 22nd round draft pick in 1992.  He improved a ton over the year: his potential on 1/1/94 was 3-2-3.  Before we annoint him the next George Banks, one concern about Morgan: his potential is just 4-2-4, so he's projected to fall off a bit.  I mean, if he does fall off, he's still a 10 pt. pitcher, which is good -- maybe even All Star worthy during his best years.  But the difference between a 12 pt. SP and a 10 pt. SP is immense.  2 Questions for the Savages: (i) how do they keep producing such fantastic young SPs? (ii) How come these great young SPs keep burning out?

 

7. Phil Cooper SP for Dunedin (R) within the Memphis organization went 22-2 and 1.43 this year for Dunedin.  His WHIP was 0.94.  He's a mid-level prospect: 3-3-3 potential.

Fully formed free agents

March 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

3 of the biggest names in EWB today are Don Kelly, Luis Altagracia, and Julio "Punk" Perez.  They had similar but unusual starts to their career.

 

1. Don Kelly signed with Denver on 6/24/84 as an undrafted free agent.  (El Paso claimed him off waivers on 8/4 of that year.)  Even though Kelly was undrafted, he was already viewed extremely highly: the 1 year deal he signed was worth $600K, even though he had never had a professional (ML or mL) at bat in his life.  He was 21 at the time he signed.  The first scouting report we have for Kelly is from 1/1/85, when he was 4-3-3 (and 5-5-5 potential).  Also, Kelly played only 28 games in mL in 1984 before receiving a big league call up, and at the ML level in 1984 he batted .331 and had an OPS of .872.  In 1985, Kelly's first full season in professional baseball (again, mL or ML), he won the MVP.  The point is: Kelly was a free agent who already had tons of ability, even prior to any development.  Kelly is American.

 

2. Luis Altagracia signed with St. Louis as an undrafted free agent on 3/6/87.  Again, despite never having pitched in professional ball at any level, his initial contract was 2 years for $520K per.  Altagracia did not play a single game at the mL level.  Instead, he started with the Savages in 1987 as a 26-year-old rookie, Altagracia went 16-5 and 2.07, and won the Bob Gibson Award.  Notably, he did not win the Angel Rosa rookie award.  Maybe it's because at 26, Altagracia already had "pro" experience in some other league?  He is Mexican, so maybe in a Mexican league.  At any rate, he was an instant superstar, like Kelly, who was not drafted and immediately was excellent.

 

3. Punk Perez signed with Miami as an undrafted free agent on 1/24/85.  He was 20 at the time of signing.  For Perez, we have his scouting report prior to signing (from 1/1/85): 4-4-5 (with 4-5-5 potential).  So immediately, without throwing a single professional pitch (at either mL or ML level), Perez was among the most talented RPs in the game.  Perez signed for 1 year @ $350K, which isn't high, but it's also not the league minimum.  Perez skipped over the minors entirely, starting at the ML level.  In 1985, he had a 3.31 ERA as a set up man for Joe Murphy.  In 1986, Perez wrested the closer's job away from Murphy.  By 1987, at age 22, he was an All Star.  Like Altagracia (and unlike Kelly), Perez is foreign born: he's Puerto Rican.  Again, maybe that's relevant to the fact that he enterred the league as a free agent even though he was so good; but then again, given Kelly, maybe it's not relevant.

 

I mention these 3 players partly because their stories are interesting for their own sake (we had talked about them a little before).  But I also mention them for this reason.  Has there been any Kelly/Altagracia/Kelly equivalent since we've been running things?  That is, any undrafted free agent who starts off so highly rated?  I don't remember any, but there's a chance they could've flown under the radar.  But also: If there aren't any, why not?  Why is this something that used to happen in EWB but doesn't happen anymore?  I mean, with Kelly, Altagracia, and Perez, you are talking about the best hitter of his generation, arguably the best SP (George Banks has an argument, but Altagracia might have more staying power than Banks), and arguably the best CL.  Does the computer notice talent defecits in the league at a given time, and then inject instant superstars if it needs to do so?

Re: Attention

March 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

How about a 6th round pick for Muniz?  If not, then a 7th round pick for Buckley.

 

As far as El Paso/Kelly, I'm pretty hesitant to trade Kelly.  1. Even if they save money by getting rid of Kelly, there's no player on the free agent market this year as good as Kelly.  2. Really, the "window" for El Paso to negotiate a new deal with Kelly just opened -- they wouldn't have signed an extension any earlier than the beginning of FA's this year.  So, I want to give them a chance to re-sign him.  3. There is probably no bigger EWB icon today than Kelly, and he has played his entire career with the Iron Horses.  If Kelly is going to leave their team, it's almost definitely going to be because they (the computer) decided to make it happen.  I'm very reluctant to come in, as an assitant GM, and trade away the greatest player in the history of the franchise.

Detroit Trade Offer

March 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

(For Rob)

 

Washington gives up: SP Sergio Garcia.

Detroit gives up: CL Logan Elmore + 1B Kenny Parker (A, Daytona, or maybe Benson, they're conflicting web info as to where he is right now).

 

Rationale. 

 

The Players

First, it should be said that both pitchers suffered through disappointing seasons in 1994.  Sergio Garcia was 10-4 and 5.81.  On the plus side, what really killed him was a horrible May (11.57 ERA); besides that he wasn't so bad.  Down the stretch, he had a 3.32 ERA in August and a 2.81 ERA in September, going 3-0 during the final month.  His ratings didn't slip this year, he's still 10 pts. with 10 potential (3-4-3).  What's a reasonable expectation for him next year?  I suspect something like his 1993 season: 4.06 ERA.  Elmore had a 4.81 ERA in 1994 and a 1.52 WHIP, both horrible numbers for a closer.  He also had just 26 Saves against 6 blown saves, for a dismal 81.3 Save percentage.  After being one of the very top closers in the game back in 1991 and 1992, Elmore is now ranked as just the #25 closer overall.  Like Garcia, though, Elmore hasn't seen his ratings slip: he's still an 11 pt. pitcher, 3-5-3.  I should also note that Elmore wasn't great even in 1993, he was just mediocre then with a 3.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  So, exactly like Garcia, even if Elmore isn't as bad as he showed in 1994, it's doubtful that he's as good as he was in 1991-1992.

 

1B Kenny Parker has 3-3-3 (contact-power-eye) potential, and was a 1994 draftee.  In my book, that projects to a AAA 1B.  More specifically, here's how I analyze 1B's: to project as a ML starter, you need to add up to 8 pts. on power-contact (either 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3); there are some 7 pt. starters out there, but they are rare.  7 pts is good for a ML backup.  But 6 pts. (like Parker) doesn't even make an ML roster for 1B.  So, in taking on Parker, I'm hoping that maybe my mL system can add pts. to his potential; if he just stays the same, he's not much.  Why do I want him then?  Because in almost every trade I make for the next span, I want to add some youth, given what little mL talent we have.  Much of this youth won't pan out; but if just a player or 2 does, maybe it'll be worth it.

 

Strengths/Weaknesses

 

Right now, Detroit has the #14 ranked SPs, but that's really deceptive -- they're not good at all, they should be more like #28 or something.  At SP1 they have Romano.  Okay, I'll grant that's a strength, although Romano isn't what he used to be, and his 10 pt. ranking is identical to Garcia's.  But SP2 Jason McDonald is a 32-year-old 8 pt. pitcher who, unbelievably (given his age), has only spent one full season at the ML level: 1994.  SP3 Joe Huff is a 32-year-old 8 pt. pitcher who, unbelievably (given his age), made his first ML start this year (after spending years in Miami's bullpen).  SP4 Ken Gibson is a 35-year-old 9 pt. pitcher with 8 potential, who spent most of this year in the bullpen and hasn't started 20 games in a season since 1987.  SP5 Bo Jones is a 29-year-old 8 pt. pitcher who has had +5.40 ERAs each of the last 2 years.  That is absolutely horrible.  Horrible.  Down on the farm you have Bailey Manley, but he probably won't be ML ready until 1995.  You also have Bill Meredith in AAA, but he's recovering from a major arm injury (torn rotator cuff), and won't be ready until May of this year -- if he can even come back at full strength, which is dicey given the nature of the injury.  Also: Detroit's SP ERA this year of 5.34 was 16th in the NL.

 

On the other hand, in Detroit's bullpen you have a relative strength -- you have a fair amount of talent and potential, even if they didn't produce too much in 1994.  (Much of the current talent didn't spend much time with Detorit's ML team in 1994.)  MR Richard Wittig is an 11 pt. pitcher who was a rookie in 1994, and seems like he could fill the closer role if needed.  Newly acquired MR Manuel Figueroa is a 25-year-old 10 pt. pitcher who had a good rookie season in 1994 for Montreal, posting a 2.80 ERA.  He too could be a potential closer, though 10 pts. might be a little low for that role.  MR Michael Whittier has 11 pt. actual and 12 pt. potential.  He should probably be a closer right now for Detroit, even if they keep Elmore.  12 pt. closers are above average.

 

Division Positioning

 

As bad as Detroit was in 1994, they have a real opportunity to move up in 1995.  I think we'll all agree that Cleveland overachieved this past year; it's hard to see them playing as well in 1995 (especially given that ace Earl Armstrong is losing pts.).  Pittsburgh is almost certainly heading for a fall, given the loss of Tom Campbell and Norman Hopkins, and the fact that Pedro Velasquez has lost pts. compared to where he played much of 1994 (down to 3-4 after being 4-5 much of last year).  St. Louis has the bad combination of having their veteran players get up there in years (Tom Mills, Luis Aguirre) right as their young stars lose pts. like crazy (Victorio Aguirre, 4-4-4 in his prime, is down to 2-3-3 potential; Daniel Morgan is down to 2-3-3 actual).  The point is, Detroit shouldn't be thinking: rebuild.  They should be thinking: make a run this year.

 

Contracts

 

I think this trade would be a rip-off for us (we certainly wouldn't pursue it), except for the fact that we lose Garcia's contract.  His contract is overly high, but not insanely high: if Garcia were a free agent this offseason, he could probably get around what his contract is right now, and Detroit would seem like a plausible suitor.  At any rate, it's precisely because Garcia's contract is an issue that I've tempered my expectations in terms of what I'm getting in exchange.  I would like to hope that Elmore could return to be an adequate closer or above average MR.  But, there's plenty of 11 pt. pitchers out there who just suck year after year: Joe Schroeder (formerly of my team), Marc Jackson (the former CL in L.A. who's been terrible the past two seasons), and so on.

Free agents to be: 1995

March 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Here are some of the top players projected to be FA's after the 1995 season.

 

Aaron Ellis, 2B, Houston.  Will be finishing his mega-contract, originally signed with Omaha.  Fair to say he won't make as much next time around.

Ricardo Hernandez, 1B, Atlanta.  Another former Wolverine.

Don Kelly, RF, El Paso.  Given how his ratings have slipped some in recent years (down to 4-4 actual), I don't think it's crazy that El Paso could let him go.  Kelly will be just 32.

Cesar Leal, 2B, St. Louis.  MVP contender this past season.

Porter Scott, 3B, Montreal.  I suspect he'll retire.

Ken Bryant, 1B, Miami.  Could be a bargain.

Jeff Baird, SP, Pittsburhg.  15-8 in 1994.

George Banks, SP, Washington.  His ratings have just improved 1 pt. for some reason.

Ned Gordon, CL, Atlanta.  Coming off a down year in 1994.

Joe Murphy, CL, Kansas City.  The mercenary (4 teams since 1990) might be ready to move on.

Julio Perez, CL, Omaha.  This is looking like a huge year for closers on the market.

 

Maybe there are a few others I missed too; this was based just on a quick skim.  Also: some of these players will no doubt re-sign with their current teams.  But also: some players will probably void the last years of their contracts, and end up becoming free agents even though they aren't on this list (ala Kevin Morris this year).

Re: Uploaded 11/22/1994

March 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Yeah, I had pretty much the same reaction as you to both trades.  You really have to give credit to Pablo Lara, who by the way is becoming quite the "name" GM, for really shaking things up and trying to make the Aztecas competitive.  As far as the Boston trade goes, I think it's funny because it's so ironic with the Hearn/MacGregor talks melting down and then they go make this move which appears to clear a slot for Urive.  However, they still have him platooning but now with Paul Elliot.  Elliot played the majority of his games at SS and 2B last year.  Keep in mind, though, that the AI rosters are still in major disarray as all the FA's just declared and many moves are yet to come.  Urive still may find a spot in the starting lineup.

As a side note, I feel really behind in a lot of EWB related matters and emails so bear with me as I catch up.

Re: Kansas City trade offer

March 7th, 2009 by Admirals GM

I guess maybe that's what we'll have to do.  (You can't FORCE TRADE?)  I'll talk more later; now I have to go eat.

Re: Kansas City trade offer

March 7th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Well, from Washington's standpoint, part of the point of trading Robinson is that it frees up money to use to pursue a bigtime SP, like Tom Campbell or Kevin Morris.  So, we don't want a solution that might hinder us from doing these things -- for instance, to say wait and see (at least not for too long).  If I had known this was a possible consequence, I wouldn't have wanted to fast forward to 11/22 in the first place.

 

Another thing to say is this.  If we were to force KC's hand on this trade, I suspect we wouldn't be acting against their interest.  I mean, I can understand if their is some hesitancy to set a precedent on this front -- to force a computer team out of the things they are trying to do on  their own.  That is a legitimate consideration.  However, I would say that Robinson is almost guaranteed to be a better use of money than whoever it is they really are pursuing.  They're probably looking to spend $15M on the next Randall Helmick, or something.

 

I don't totally know what I want to propose, though.

 

One more thing.  I was hoping to pursue at least one more trade: either Sergio Garcia or Joe MacGregor could be dealt.  But now, I'm not sure who I can and can't pursue deals with.

Re: Kansas City trade offer

March 7th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Follow up...

 

The other team that *should* have shitloads of money to spend is Atlanta.  For instance, Paul Sims contract is coming off the books for them this year.  Their payroll this past year was close to $50M, I think.  (Certianly over $40M.)  Their player payroll right now is just $24M.  And yet, their projected balance is -$427K.  If that holds up, Atlanta won't be able to take any salary on board this offseason, even though they are a huge market and their payroll of $24M is nothing.  So again, I suspect that if we just wait a day or so, team's budgets will expand.  But if not, Atlanta is going to be unbelievably, unbelievably shitty in 1995.

Re: Kansas City trade offer

March 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

I have to think that's a kind of temporary budgetary glitch.  Looking at KC's financial page, their Current Budget is $51.5M, while their player payroll is $29.4M.  Now, I see that their projected balance is only +$615K, but it seems to me that should be just temporary.  (Meaning: that balance makes sense as a summary of 1994, but it doesn't make any sense going forward to 1995.)

 

Aside from these numbers, the whole reason I targeted KC in the first place was that they had a lot of overpaid players whose contracts expired after 1994 (e.g., Jaime Colon), so I figured they were a sure, sure bet to have the money to cover Robinson.  In fact, I still think that.  Kansas City is one of our big market teams, but they only have $29M in salary commitments for next year.  Either they are soon going to be able to take on board Robinson's contract, or else Ewing Kauffman must have slashed their budget by around $17M or so.

Kansas City trade offer

March 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Kansas City is run by me.  Because of this, I need everyone's feedback on the proposal.

 

We give up: LF Mike Robinson.

We get back: 1B Ralph Evans (A, Papillion) + SP Chris Martin (AAA).

 

Rationale for KC

 

Kansas City has one major team weakness: offense.  In 1994, they ranked 14th (last) in the AL in runs scored.  Their curent OF is horrible.  Position-by-position rankings: 24-25-29 (LF-CF-RF).  And none of those guys are prospects either; their LF is 34, their CF is 33, and their RF is 26 and sucks.  Thanks to recent free agent departures, KC has money to burn this offseason.  There is no FA on the market who is a better offensive player than Robinson.

 

Kansas City has two organizational strengths: 1B prospects and SPs.  ALL of their top 7 prospects in their organization are 1Bs!  And then, at the ML level, you have 1B Wilfred Christian, a bigtime Angel Rosa candidate this year.  So bottom line: if KC is going to improve, they really do need to trade some 1B prospects.  This point should be uncontroversial.  Ralph Evans projects to be a top tier 1B: ranked somewhere from around #5 through #10 or so.  His potential ratings are 4-4-4-4-3 (3 in avoid K's).  To give you a scale of comparison: those are simiar ratings to John Hennesy (#14, San Antonio), Coy Rollins (#11, Miami), Shannon Townsend (#9 New York), and Roy Payton (#6 Montreal).  Evans has no speed, but does play a decent 1B: 8.  We feel hopeful that Evans will develop to this caliber of player, but I would note that we are taking some risk here.  Juan Bravo has similar ratings too, and he's been a disapointment (2.7 VORP in 1994).  Similarly, David Benitez of Memphis (1B) has exactly the same ratings as Evans' potential, and Benitez is not very good at all: .262/23/83 in 1994, and ranked as the #28 1B in EWB.  So there is an asymmetry in the trade: KC gets a sure thing while we do not.  This sort of risk seems inevitable if we're going to get younger, so we reluctantly embrace it.  Evans was ranked as the #55 prospect in EWB prior to the season.

 

KC's other organizational strength, again is SPs.  At the ML level, their SP ERA of 4.20 was 1st in the AL this past season.  SP Chris Martin spent all of the year in AAA.  He is a 3-3-3 pitcher (potential & actual) who has 9 fatigue.  As a 9 pt. pitcher, he projects to anywhere from a 3rd starter to a spot starter at the ML level.  He is what he is -- nothing great, but hopefully he could make our ML rotation this year or next.

 

Last bit on Robinson.  Robinson will be 33 next year and has showed no signs of ratings slipping.  He is ranked as the #11 player in all of EWB, and just this year finished 3rd in the AL in VORP (.332/20/92/25).  We hate to give him up.  In terms of what they will produce in the next 4 years, we think it's almost a sure thing Robinson will be better than Evans.  However, as others have noted, Washington doesn't have a lot of bigtime offensive prospects, and so we feel compelled to explore this sort of trade to get younger.  Kansas City has enough going for it (great SPs + Joe Murphy as closer + $$$ to spend even after they take on Robinson's contract) that if they can add Robinson, it seems to me that they should become an instant contender next year -- maybe not with Omaha, who is still stacked, but at the very least for the Wild Card.

Re: Trade Proposal: Memphis

March 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. You're right, Houston has too many young C's.  But then, what I don't get is why they would want Jorge Ramos in return?  Ramos is another C.  I mean, I know you're promising to add in an OF as well, but the Ramos element of the trade will be pretty much lost on them.

 

2. On the other hand, Houston would be interested in Oyama, especially considering that Freddie Flemming just left the team via free agency and Oyama is ML ready (or at least nearly ML ready).  I know Oyama is also being discussed in connection with Philadelphia, but I thought I would mention that Houston could have an interest too.

Re: Trade Proposal: Memphis

March 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

We've looked at Memphis's mL system, and we've settled on the pitcher we want to complete the deal: SP Justin Harris of R Pulaski.  Harris is a 7 pt. potential pitcher (2-2-3, with the 3 in movement) who has yet to rise above R ball in his 2 professional seasons.  He is something of an innings eater, though, which is good for us, because we don't have enough mL SPs.

 

So, the offer then

 

Washington gives up: 2B Daniel Smith + RP Russell Ramsey (both ML)

Memphis gives up: SP Justin Harris (R, Pulaski) + C Jimmy Maynard (AA, New Hampshire)

Re: Trade Proposal: Memphis

March 4th, 2009 by Admirals GM

TO MEMPHIS

 

1. No, Jackson/Crockett are not involved in any trade.  If you want Ramsey, we can talk.  If you're not at all interested in Ramsey, not even for a mL 7 pt. pitcher, that's obviously a tactical mistake on your part -- the expected utility from one year of Ramsey is higher than the expected utility of that mL pitcher.  But so be it.  We will talk to a more reasonable team instead.

 

2. It is false that Yamada or Benson is "just as good" as Smith.  Yamada has played since 1982, so he has a track record we can appeal to, we don't have to just speculate about what might happen next year if he starts.  In no single year of his 12 year career, has Yamada had a season as good as any season Smith had from 1991-1993, when he was our starter.  Yamada's best season was probably 1992 for Miami when he went .279/5/38/11.  That is obviously not starting 2B-caliber stats.  By contrast, Smith's 1993 season of .281/15/75/9 obviously is starting caliber 2B.  You're right, Smith's 3 defense is a limitation.  But you act against Memphis's interest by making the perfect the enemy of the good.  Memphis doesn't have anybody who can add good offense to good defense.  So if the requirement is both, Memphis doesn't have a 2B.

3. It is false that Maynard could start for "a lot" of EWB teams.  The #27 ranked C in EWB is Ron Bly of KC.  Bly is rated 4-4-2-4-4.  And so, Bly is much better than Maynard.  The #28 C in EWB is Thomas Brooks.  Brooks has worse power ratings than Maynard, but he does have 4 contact.  Thanks to that 4 contact, he batted .306 this year.  Seems to me that Brooks is better than Maynard.  The #29 C in EWB is Jeff Hicks.  Hicks is rated 3-4-3-4-4; defensively, he won the Gold Glove this year.  Hick is obviously better than Maynard.  The #30 C in EWB is Bob Matthews.  Matthews is rated 3-3-2-3-2.  We will spot you that one.  Maynard is better than Matthews.  So: Maynard is good enough to be the #30 C in EWB.  That is, if he fulfills his potential.  Let me also add this.  For years, my backup C was Carlos Lopez.  Offensively, Lopez is rated 2-4-2-5-3 (he hused to have a higher K rating of 4).  That's very much in the same ballpark as Maynard.  Specifically: Lopez's offensive total adds up to 16, while Maynard's potential (not actual) adds up to 16 as well (and again, Lopez used to be 17).  Lopez was (and is) 10-10 defensively, while Maynard is 10-9 -- so Maynard is worse.  I think Maynard might be a little better overall, because he has 3 contact rating while Lopez is 2, but then on the other hand Lopez is much better at eye (5 vs. 3).  So it's a tough call.  At any rate, I think it's fair to say this: Maynard is not significantly better than Lopez, at least based on ratings.  But again, that's what I said.  Lopez was a good backup C for me.  Maynard would be a good backup C as well.  But that is all.  You maybe overrate a good defensive catcher, but half the backups in EWB are defensive specialists.  That's Maynard's projected role.

 

4. We're happy to continue negotations.  To repeat: our offer is Smith for Maynard.  We think that's fair.  In fact, we think we're giving up more than fair market value, given that it's a known fact that Smith can contribute at the ML level but it's very much up in the air whether Maynard can.  But we're willing to give you a gift because we like Daniel Smith, and would like to see him start.  He hope we've persuaded you that it's fair.  If not, we can pursue a deal with another team.

On Tue, Mar 3, 2009 at 8:46 PM, mike gilmore <mgil6969@yahoo.com> wrote:

We need to find out if Kurt Wells will re sign with us, first off we are not very impressed with Daniel Smith's 3 rating at 2b, secondly we like Shunsho Yamada or Ed Benson to be the heir apparent to Kurt Wells if he decides to leave. We believe that Ed or Shunsho is just as good as Daniel Smith and they play a better 2B. Yes, it is true that we have a log jam a C in our minors, so for that we would trade Maynard to you for mL MR Rich Jackson or maybe Leonard Crockett. If you look at Maynard he could start for alot of EWB teams with a 10-9 defensive rating and solid ratings with 3 contact and power, so we believe that Jimmy is better than Smith, but as you have pointed out we could really use a MR. Hope we can make a deal.

Trade Proposal: Memphis

February 3rd, 2009 by Admirals GM

Washington sends Memphis: 2B Daniel Smith

Memphis sends Washington: C Jimmy Maynard (AA).

 

Rationale:

 

1. Smith

 

Smith is on the outs in Washington.  Brandon Kent was our primary starter at 2B in 1994, and Alexander Gardner figures to be ready for ML duty at some point in 1995.  But Smith still does have solid offensive tools for a 2B: 3-5-3-2-4.  (The 5 gap isn't trivial: he was among league leaders in doubles in both 1992 and 1993.)  And he has good speed: 7-7-6 baserunning ratings.  Obviously, he's coming off a down hitting year at .224/11/56 in 312 ABs, but that's what makes him a bargain.  At 31 years of age, there's no obvious reason to think he's over the hill (no ratings slippage).  He's projected to make $795K in 1995 due to arbitration, so he's a bargain.  (Smith has a 2 eye rating, and we all know how much the computer has a boner for EYE.  That's what keeps his salary down.)  In fact, I think Smith is exactly the sort of player that a small market team like Memphis should try to pursue: a bargain basement type who, if they get lucky, could return to a .285/15/75 year like he had in 1993.

 

2. Memphis' need for a 2B.

 

Kurt Wells, Memphis' 2B in 1994, is a free agent to be, and figures to be beyond Memphis' payroll possibilities.  Memphis has no obvious replacement for next year.  In the farm system, Derek Nutt looks like a good 2B prospect down in AA, but he's at least 1 and probably 2 years away from making it to the majors.  Smith could be a nice stopgap until then.

 

3. Maynard

 

Memphis has a real backlog of young C's.  ML starter Jose Espinoza is just 23 and hit .287/19/63 last year in EWB.  ML Backup Tony Worley is 24 and ranked as the #25 prospect in EWB at the beginning of 1994.  Maynard is just Memphis's 3rd ranked catching prospect, behind Worley and Terry Bowen in AAA.  Maynard's offensive potential is 3-4-3-3-3, which is worse or equal to Smith at every rating other than eye (which is still just 3 vs. 2).  Maynard does play good defense: 10-9.  But realistically, even ignoring Memphis's C situation, all he projects to is a good backup C or, at best, a lowest tier (like, ranked #25-#30) starting C.

 

In part, we do this deal because we like Smith and would like to see him get a chance to start somewhere else, if he's not with us.

 

Now, if Memphis is interested, we could also consider trading them RP Russell Ramsey.  Now let me be up front: the reason Ramsey is available is that his potential has dropped off to 1-3-3 (7 pts.).  Presently, his actual ratings are 2-3-4 (9 pts.).  By my ratings system, 9 pts. is an adequate ML RP.  7 pts. is not; it's not even a marginal ML RP.  So, if they have any interest in Ramsey, it should be for the sake of squeezing some decent ML innings out of him next year; they really shouldn't have any longer term plans for him.  Even so, it occurred to me that Memphis might be interested, just because there bullpen is so God Awful: 14th (last) in the AL last year at 5.91.  I don't have any official proposal regarding Ramsey at this point, because I don't want to bother to think about it unless Memphis is interested.  However, I will say that our expectations for a return are realistic.  What we would want in return is either an equivalent ML-ready marginal big leaguer (like Ramsey is about to become), or a prospect who presently projects to something less than ML-caliber (e.g., an 7 pt. SP), but who could become something more if we got lucky.

Re: A Few Thoughts

February 24th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Now that I'm back in town and things are a little less hectic -- last week, I had to give an hour long talk on Monday at a big Symposium at Puget Sound, I had to send off letters of recommendation for a student on Tuesday, I had to write up my comments for a conference on Wednesday, and I had to leave town Thursday for that conference in Chicago.  Now that I'm back, let me say this: I won't quite the league anytime soon.  That was really just the drama of the moment.  However, it really would be helpful to at least have several more days to work on stuff here before I get back into things.

As far as saving time, you're right, the thing I need to do is spend less time by myself trying to formulate/justify deals.  I suspect one casualty here might be trading realism, but I guess that's a better casualty than the league itself or my work commitments, so that's what will have to go.  In the MacGregor case, I literally looked at every team in the league, trying to think about whether I could realistically imagine a trade.

 

1. A trade seemed unrealistic for any team in the Mountain West, both because all those teams suck right now (and MacGregor is a veteran) and because they're division rivals.

 

2. Denver could afford him, but I felt it was stupid to imagine the Amigos letting Vincent Carter go as a free agent only to acquire a different, expensive 36-year-old.  Unrealistic, it seemed to me.  Chicago has budget room, but they should be trying to add offense or bullpen, not starting pitching.  Similarly, KC should add offense, their SPs are their strength.  Minneapolis doesn't have the money to make a deal.  And I wouldn't give up MacGregor to Omaha -- even if Omaha wanted him (which I'm sure they don't, given their feelings about MacGregor).

 

3. Atlanta could afford MacGregor, but again it struck me as an unsatisfying sort of deal to make.  Atlanta should be trying to rebuild, ideally.  Same goes for New Orleans.  Carolina can't afford him.  Memphis could, but I think they're such a small market team that it doesn't really make sense for them to pay so much for one player, unless that one player is like Don Kelly-in-his-prime level.  And again, I wouldn't trade him to Miami.

 

4. Houston probably can't afford him, especially because they're coming off multiple years in the red (due to the Aaron Ellis contract).  Same goes for El Paso and Austin.  Technically, San Antonio probably could, but I don't want to saddle them with such a big contract, given that they're such a small market team.  Again, a kind of situation similar to Memphis.  Dallas could afford him, but again they're rebuilding.

 

5. Indianapolis could afford him, but they couldn't easily give up the sort of veteran contributor I would hope for most.  Cincinnati can't afford him.  Detroit could, but I thought it was kind of stupid for the Cruisers to pay all this money for just 2 SPs: Emilio Romano + MacGregor.  I mean, maybe I could see it, but if there was a better match I would prefer that.  Pittsburgh probably could afford him, but they're losing Tom Campbell this offseason.  If they're going to let Campbell go, it struck me as unrealistic they would bring in some other expensive veteran SP.  Cleveland doesn't have the money, they're too small market.  St. Louis has the best SPs in the entire league.

 

6. Philadelphia has big budget problems.  A D.C. trade maybe could be made to work, but they have all these highly paid veterans -- Ken Dennis, Geoff McKnight -- and I worried that adding one more would cripple the organization.  At any rate, I'd prefer a trade with someone else, if possible.  Montreal is impossible for budget reasons.  And that left Boston & New York.  Approaching it from the Boston/New York angle struck me as the most interesting, because then I could imagine it in almost Yankees/Red Sox terms.  And it seemed realistic to me because both teams would be (I thought) highly motivated traders: Boston because they keep losing World Series, and New York because they keep folding down the stretch (happened in 1993 and 1994).  At any rate, that's how I settled on Boston.  I still do think personally that the MacGregor-for-Hearn trade made a lot of sense for Boston -- even if the computer rejects it, I think that's a mistake by the computer -- but that's water under the bridge now.

 

But I'll come up with new offers sometime soon, something along the lines of the Haberman/Romano trade, I guess.

Re: A Few Thoughts

February 19th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. No, I don't want Hearn anymore, in part because I realize any trade at this point would be tainted.

 

2. This isn't just me complaining now.  Look back at the old e-mails and you'll see I always raised the point about my contracts as a consideration when we were considering any change to the system (e.g., when we considered lowering our budgets, or when we considered implementing new trade rules).  I brought this up multiple times, that I would not have signed the contracts that I did if I had appreciated that this was going to be the system.

 

3. But set that aside.  I guess my real concern is time, and the whole Boston thing just triggered it for me because it ended up being such a waste of time in retrospect.  Again, don't think of that as an accusation.  I really mean it when I grant the trade was no good.  But at this point, I can realistically say this: I'm just not going to be able to stay in the league making as much of a time investment as I have been.  There might be different ways to solve this.  For instance, if maybe Mike or Rob took over control of the ballots sometimes, or maybe if we just handed over control for the Awards & Hall of Fame back to the computer, or maybe if we just went back to the system of Computer GMs.  Or maybe it's just because this has actually been an especially stressful week, with tons of things for me to do, and I pissed away a morning on EWB -- that is, maybe when things get back to normal I won't feel as negative as I do right now.  But I have to say that right now in the moment, with the stress of all these deadlines for work, the Boston frusturation (the TIME frustration) has me questioning whether I can stay in the league.  I don't mean to be overdramatic -- it will probably fade.

A Few Thoughts

February 18th, 2009 by Admirals GM

I have to say, I'm pretty unhappy with how things stand, and it's on several fronts.

 

1. I spent way too much time on the Boston trade.  Let me grant for the sake of argument the deal was a complete rip-off for Boston.  Even so, that's time I'm not getting back.  And the thing is, I have no chance anytime soon to spend that sort of time working out other deals.  I'm going to Chicago tomorrow for a conference, and when I get back I'm going to be especially busy.  This is especially an issue because I just spent all that time working on the ballots -- it takes a while to put together the Awards ballots. 

 

2. I'm now thinking this is a real downside from taking away the Shop function.  If we had SHOP still around, I could just put MacGregor or whoever on SHOP, see the best deal that got back to me, and then pull the trigger.  Probably would take less than 5 minutes.  Whatever its drawbacks, one definite advantage is that it speeds things up in various ways.

 

3. Here's another thing.  Maybe the MacGregor contract is just so big that it will be forever impossible to trade him.  Maybe even that's legitimate -- I'll grant it for the sake of argument.  The thing is, all these big contracts we signed were signed under the old system, a system of SHOP and less scrutiny for trades.  And, I have to say, that was at least part of my conscious thinking in offering those contracts in the first place: hey, even if things go wrong, no big deal because I can turn around and trade the players right away, like Mike did last year when he re-signed Diaz/Hernandez and then traded them immediately to Cleveland.  In other words, the contracts wouldn't be too onerous.  Now, though, Washington has $51M in contract commitments all the way through 1997, all signed under the old system and its assumptions.  If with the new systems trades are going to be harder, and all of a sudden teams start being way more sensitve to payroll considerations, the effect willl be to lock us into a bad team for years to come.  We feel like we're getting screwed because of a change in rules.

 

Think of it like this.  Suppose we had implemented the new trading system back in 1992.  Well, that would've totally been to Washington's advantage over all human teams.  Because back then, Washington was the best team in the AL, while Miami only won around 88 games and Omaha was .500.  If the new system had been in place back then, then we just would have blocked all the trades that helped other teams move up in the meantime, trades like Craig Belcher or Lawrence Jordan.  Our superiority would've been "locked in", comparatively.  More generally, the new trading system has a kind of conservative effect -- it makes it harder for bad teams to move up.  In fact, that's the whole point of the new system -- the way you used to move up was with rip-off trades.  In light of that, it's bound to be the case that whoever is lowest on the totem pole when the new system takes effect will be especially adversely affected.  Omaha shouldn't care if trades are now harder -- Omaha has a 107 Win team, so even if they are "stuck" with their current team, no big deal.  Washington is the team that should care, given that no division winner had fewer wins than we had.

 

4. At any rate, because of a combination of my lack of time and a bad taste in my mouth about feeling stuck with my team, due to a change of rules that weren't really about us in the first place, I'm feeling pretty down with the league right now.

Re: Trade Proposal for Boston

February 18th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. New trade offer: I give Boston Artie Bicknell, they give me 3B Jason Weaver.  By your rationale, Boston should say fuck it, NO, we went to the World Series with the team we have.  Why add Bicknell?  Obviously, MacGregor for Hearn isn't as one-sided as MacGregor for Hearn.  But I say that it's similar, in that MacGregor is better than Hearn.  (As a SP.)

 

2. Focusing more on Hearn, let me say this.  His stats are kind of hard to read, in that at the very beginning of the year (April and May), he saw action as *both* a RP and a starter.  The reason this is a complication is that I claim he's *way* more effective as a reliever -- he's actually a mediocre starter, but a great reliever -- and so when you look at his solid April and May numbers, it's hard to know if he posted them as a SP or as a RP.  So then, here's what seems fair, look *just* at his stats from June-September, because during this stretch he's just a SP.  Well, just considering June-September, Hearn is 10-4 and 3.92, and he's averaging 5.2 IP per start.  The 3.92 ERA is only 0.04 better than MacGregor, even though Hearn gets to face a pitcher every 9th batter, and even though he hands the ball over to a reliever much quicker.  Hearn has quality starts 48.2% of the time, compared to MacGregor at 62.% of his starts.  MacGregor's 62.% ranked 3rd in the AL.  By comparison, the 48.2% ratio is pretty bad.  His teammate Ricardo Rodriguez, who has a 5.01 ERA, has a QS% of 47.4%.  Teammate Mark Brandon, who has a 4.53 ERA, has a QS% of 50%.  More generally, scanniong quickly across the league, Hearn's QS% is about what you would expect from a pitcher with a 4.60 ERA, not a 3.36 ERA.  So then, using this metric, Hearn's fatigue limits him to being only as efficient as a 4.60 SP. 

Re: Trade Proposal for Boston

February 18th, 2009 by Admirals GM

You raise some fair points.  If you don't think Boston needs a C, I have no strong argument in reply right now.  But let me say this about MacGregor vs. Hearn.

 

While it's true that Hearn does have a good ERA, my claim is that his ERA is "cheapened" by the fact he can't go late in games.  His 3.36 ERA isn't worth the same as a 3.36 ERA of a real starter; in fact, I think it's worth less than MacGregor's 3.96 ERA (after cross-league differences are accounted for).

 

To see how this could be, consider an imaginary case.  Suppose your offense scores exactly 5 runs every single game.  So you know this: if you hold the other team to 4 runs, you will win.  Now suppose you have two different starting pitchers, Frank (as in Hearn) and Joe (as in MacGregor).  Frank's ERA is better: Frank is 3.60, while Joe is 4.50.  But there's a huge fatigue difference.  Everytime Frank pitches, he can go only 5 IP, and gives up exactly 2 ER each time (which equals 3.60); in contrast, Joe goes 8 IP everytime and gives up 4 ER each time (equaling 4.50).  Which pitcher would you rather have?

 

Well, with Joe, you know this.  Every single game he pitches, you're going to be winning 5-4 going into the 9th inning (given that you always score 5 and Joe always gives up 4).  So, as long as your closer can pitch 1 scoreless inning, you'll win every start.  Even if your closer blows a few saves, he'll still save most of the games.  In contrast, everytime Frank pitches, you need your bullpen to come in and pitch the 6th-7th-and 8th, in addition to the 9th.  Now, it's true that when Frank leaves the game, you'll be winning 5-2 in the top of the 6th.  But can you trust your bullpen -- especially the middle of the bullpen -- to keep that lead everytime?  Or, more to the point, can you trust them to keep the lead as often as they will keep that 1-run lead that Joe gives them each time out?  Statisically, there's no way.  I guarantee you that 5-4 leads going into the 9th (pitched by closers, your most elite RP) are way safer than 5-2 leads going into the 6th (which introduces MRs, your worst pitchers).

 

But that's only part of the problem.  Not only does your bullpen have to cover Frank each time out, but now they're going to be tired after everytime he pitches, because they have to do so much extra work.  And that will affect how they perform in other games.  So, even if your bullpen does save Frank's 5-2 lead on Monday, maybe they're going to be too tired to effectively save Danny's (another SP) lead on Tuesday.

 

So the bottom line is that even though Frank's stats look really good (3.60 ERA!), he's such a strain on your bullpen that it's not worth it.

 

To see an even more extreme case of the same principle, now imagine a new SP, Koigi.  Here's how Koigi works: everytime he goes out and starts, he will pitch exactly 0.1 IP and strike out 1 batter.  Every time he starts.  So, if you look at the end of the year, you'll see that Koigi's stats look great: great ERA (0.00), great WHIP (0.00), great K/9 (27).  So then, is Koigi the best starter in the game, given these awesome stats?  No, because his fatigue is so horrible.  Everytime Koigi starts, your bullpen has to cover his ass for the last 26 outs.  My claim is that something like this is going on with Hearn in Boston, although obviously it's less extreme there.

 

Final point, regarding Wins.  I grant, it is the case that a SP's Wins don't really matter, what matters is the team's wins.  But the *reason why* SPs with low fatigue get such low wins is precisely because they depend on their bullpens so heavily, and inevitably their bullpen ends up blowing games for them.  Let me take Sergio Garcia as my case, just because I know his 6 fatigue best.  Back when Garcia was in his prime, so many games he would go like 6 IP with just 2 ER.  And when he left, we'd have the lead, so he's in line for a win.  But now our bullpen gets involved, and back in the day our bullpen sucked (especially middle relief), and so they would blow a bunch of his wins.  So in many of those games, even though Garcia pitched well, we ended up losing, because he forced us to use lackluster MRs.  Or at least I can say this: even if we did win our fair share of those games, we won far fewer than we would have won if Garcia had 9 fatigue instead of 6.

 

In light of this, here is (roughly) the question Boston should consider.  What would we rather have next year?  Joe MacGregor for 8 IP + Lawrence Britton for 1 IP in relief?  Or would we rather have Frank Hearn for 5 IP + Ernesto Olvera for 1 IP + Lou Murray for 1 IP + Drew Joyner for 1 IP + Lawrence Britton for 1 IP? 

 

Here's a final point, which isn't really about this trade but more about Sabermetrics.  A lot of times, Sabermetrics folks argue that Wins is way overrated as a stat for SPs.  I think I just convinced myself that these guys are totally wrong.

Re: Trade Proposal for Boston

February 18th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Some more things about the proposal...

 

1. If Boston regards Urive as untouchable, we could be interested in 1B Ken Ballard instead (now in AAA) if Boston would agree to add a little more to their side of the deal (maybe both teams would add a 3rd player).  Boston has a huge backload at 1B, and if Urive is too precious, well then certainly Ballard shouldn't be, given that he's stuck behind both Johnston and Urive.  Ballard is 25, and his prospect is dimming.

 

As far as the Kennedy-for-Urive part of the original trade, let me say a little more about my original thinking, because your NO WAY reply sort of surprised me.  (Even if Urive is now officially out of the deal, I want it to be clear I wasn't originally trying to rip off Boston.)  Based on his 4-3 contact-power rating, we think that Urive projects to a merely average offensive starter for EWB at 1B.  1B is a stacked position, and it's very hard to enter the top tier of 1Bs (let's say the top 10) unless you're at least an 8 pt. hitter (i.e., at least 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3).  In fact, looking at the position rankings, I would say Urive would fit between #15 Manolo Reyes (who is 4-4 with 5-4 potential) and #16 Juan Delgado (3-3).  How come, then, Urive is right now ranked as the #13 player in EWB?  Because he had an out-of-this-world August and September, batting .409 and .403 respectively.  His #13 ranking appears based on this hot streak entirely, a streak he can't possibly keep up.  Look at the top 20 position player rankings and you see very few 4-3 or 3-4 players.  Pretty much the only ones you see are (i) players whose ratings just dropped (e.g., Vincent Carter, Pedro Velasquez), and so who will soon fall out of the rankings, or (ii) players who either add speed or good defense at a demanding position (e.g., C Carroll Holden, 2B Jacob O'Rourke, etc.).  Simply put, Urive is not a top 20 player one year from now, his hitting ratings just aren't good enough for a 1B.  Instead, what Urive is is a decent, though average, starting 1B.  Well, what's Kennedy?  A decent, if perhaps average, starting C.  Now, an average 1B will hit better than an average C, but such is the nature of the positions involved.  That's not a reason to prefer average 1Bs to average Cs, or else you'll end up with a team full of 1Bs.  Which is where Boston is at.

 

So again, we're not trying to talk down Urive for its own sake.  I just want to make clear why we thought that the Kennedy-for-Urive component of the deal was completely reasonable.

 

2. Here's a strategic difference between Washington and Omaha: you get spooked by age, but we don't.  If we had money this year, the free agent we would pursue without question is Tom Campbell.  Now, Campbell is 38, but so what?  Sign him to 2 years, and suppose he retires then.  No big deal, because there will be some new 38 year old free agent to sign at that point (Michael Bowden, let's say).  Compare the free agents Ernie Owen vs. Michael Bowden last year.  I remember you thought we should pursue Owen instead of Bowden, because Owen was younger.  But look at what they did this year: Bowden went 11-3 and 3.75 in a little over half a season (that 3.75 ERA would rank 4th in the AL), whereas Owen was 11-10 and 4.68.  This isn't all that surprising, given their track records (Owen is a good pitcher, but Bowden is one of the best in EWB history.)  Now, it is probably true that in the 1996 offseason, when Bowden's present contract expires, Owen will be the better pitcher going forward, thanks to his youth.  (Owen will then be 32 while Bowden will be 38.)  But why should that bother Chicago the slightest bit?  Once Bowden's contract is up, they now have $10M to turn around and spend on the next good free agent.  It might be that when you run Omaha, you don't want any players in their mid 30s or older.  That's up to you.  But you should realize that's an idiosyncratic fact about your own preferences.  It's not something you should impose on all the other organizations you're running.

 

3. MacGregor is right now an 11 pt. pitcher.  To my knowledge, there are only 3 EWB starters better than that: Ed Jackson (12 pts.: 4-4-4), Bartolo Barrios (12: 4-4-4), and Tom Campbell (12: 3-4-5).  (I leave aside Hearn here, because the whole point of the trade is that he's not really a starter.)  Everyone else is either at MacGregor's level or lower.

 

4. As far as losing points, Hearn seems to have just about as much risk as MacGregor.  Right now, Hearn is 13 pts.  13 is still an elite closer -- probably top 5.  But lose a pt. and fall down to 12, and you slip a notch -- Ned Gordon is a 12 pt. closer, and he's ranked 10th.  Slip 2 pts. and fall down to 11, and it's a fucking disaster for us, if we do get Hearn.  We already have plenty of 11 pt. RPs: RJ Jacobs, Roberto Hernandez, Pablo Vargas.  If Hearn is 11, he's a total waste of money & talent for us, given that we could've gotten more out of MacGregor.  And moreoever, if you look at performance this past year as your guide, it's Hearn who has all the evidence of trailing off, not MacGregor.  Again, MacGregor has never lost a single pt. during his career with us.  Hearn lost a pt. just this year.  And how do I know that Hearn's dramatic drop in production over the course of the year isn't a sign that he's lost talent?  Obviously, I'm hoping that it's not -- I'm hoping that it's just a product of the fact that they're misusing him as a starter.  But I'm taking at least as much risk here as Boston.  Compare MacGregor: 2.78 ERA in August, 3.55 ERA in September.  If anyone is slipping so far, it's Hearn, who at 32 is not exactly young.

 

5. Finally, as far as Boston's motivation given the fact that they're coming off a World Series team, here it is.  Boston has now gone to 3 World Series in recent years (they also went in 1987 and 1989), and have been to the playoffs just about every year, and yet they cannot get it done.  They cannot win it all.  When we decided to consider trading MacGregor, one of our biggest assets, we naturally turned to Boston because they are pretty much in our circumstance: can get to the playoffs, but can't win it all, just like them.  A team like that is *exactly* who MacGregor should go to, if he's going to be traded.  A lower team like Atlanta shouldn't want him -- they're too far away from competing.  It should be an elite team, whose window is right now, and who is looking for an ace to push them over the top.  Boston has a comparative weakness in SP, and free space for the contract, so MacGregor is an extremely natural fit for the team.  To say that Boston doesn't want MacGregor is to say that no EWB team wants MacGregor, because no team is a better fit.  But how could it be that no one wants MacGregor, a year-in-year-out competitor for the Gibson Award?

 

On the other hand, our organizational weakness for years has been closer.  It, as much as anything, is what prevented us from winning the 1993 World Series.  Relief pitching is especially crucial in the playoffs, we've finally realized, which is why we're willing to consider this deal.  (Given this value of relief pitching come the postseason, why would Boston agree to give up Hearn?  Because he's not a reliever for them.  Again, that's the point.)

 

In light of these considerations, we thought the deal made lots of sense for both teams.  We're actually pretty nervous about it -- we like the feel of having an ace like MacGregor to pitch every 5 games, and we really are worried about whether Hearn is washed up or soon to be washed up.  On the other hand, Boston has room for worries as well.  That's how trades go.

Re: Trade Proposal for Boston

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

2 things...

 

1. Again, let me repeat that we're willing to consider adding more to the deal from both sides.

 

2. With respect to just the issue of MacGregor vs. Hearn, think of it like this.  Despite Hearn's 4-4-5 ratings, he is not ranked as one of the top 20 SPs in the league (even though his official position is SP), and he is only Boston's SP2.  Their SP1, Rogert Thomas, has mediocre 2-3-4 ratings, so he's just a 9 pt. picher.  So by Boston's own reckoning, Hearn is worse than a 9 pt. pitcher, as a starter.  Compare Roger Thomas to Joe MacGregor.  There is no doubt that MacGregor is better.  So on a rotation that included MacGregor + Hearn + Thomas, MacGregor would be SP1, Thomas SP2, and Hearn SP3.  If, somehow, the league passed a rule that said that he had to use Hearn as a SP if we got him, we would not want him -- certainly not in exchange for MacGregor.

Re: Trade Proposal for Boston

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

That's pretty disheartening, in part because I spent hours on this today, taking time away from work.  I was hoping that this could at least springboard into some further discussions, even if the original deal didn't work out.

Trade Proposal for Boston

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

This is mostly for Mike (assistant for Boston), but I CC so he's not out of the loop.

 

Washington wants to initiate trade talks with the Boston Irish.  Here is our proposal...

 

We give up: SP Joe MacGregor & C Leo Kennedy

We receive: Frank "Mounds" Hearn & 1B Pancho Urive

 

Here is the rationale for the trade from Boston's side...

 

1. For better or worse, it's clear that Boston wants Hearn to be a SP at this point in his career.  They're never going to move him back to CL, at least in part because they have rookie Lawrence Britton as a RP now, who has 14 pt. potential.  Britton is Boston's closer of the future, probably starting as soon as 1995.  And that's probably a good thing: based on ratings, Britton will probably be a better closer at this point (Britton has 14 pt. potential, Hearn is down to 13 pts. actual.)

 

2. So then, you need to evaluate Hearn vs. MacGregor as SPs.  Evaluated in this way, my view is that MacGregor is better.  Hearn went 12-6 and 3.36 this year, while MacGregor went 16-9 and 3.94.  Here are things to consider...

 

   a. Most obviously, MacGregor has 8 endurance while Hearn only has 3 endurance.  That's a big part of why MacGregor has so many more wins.  As long as Hearn is a starter, his endurance will limit his wins to not much more than 13 or so a year.  Compare Sergio Garcia for us: for years, he was among the AL ERA leaders, but never had more than 15 wins because he only had 6 fatigue.

 

   b. Hearn's fatigue has ramifications beyond just his win totals.  For one thing, his low fatigue means that the bullpen gets tired every time he pitches.  I've posted on this in the past, but that's probably part of what made Boston's bullpen so bad before, ERA-wise.  So then, replacing Hearn with MacGregor will probably improve their bullpen, in addition to improving their starting rotation.

 

  c. Here's another ramification: Hearn fatigued badly over the year.  I've mentioned this before, but check out his month-by-month ERA: 1.44 in May, 2.04 in June, 3.31 in July, 4.86 in August, and 6.41 in September.  We can now add in the playoffs: 2-2, 6.08 ERA, and a horrible 1.56 WHIP across the playoffs.  I really do assume that's because of his low fatigue.  So, if Boston keeps Hearn, they're keeping a player who figures to be at his worst down the stretch run, right when the team needs him most.

 

  d. Hearn had the better ERA this year, but that's probably in large part because of the league difference: no DH in the NL.  Here's the "proof": Hearn's 3.36 ERA ranked him 5th in the NL; MacGregor's 3.94 ERA ranked him 5th in the AL, the exact same ranking.

 

3. How does age figure in?  MacGregor is 36 while Hearn is about to turn 32 (his birthday is 11/4).  The age gives a slight advantage to Hearn, but consider this...

 

  a. MacGregor has lost not a single rating point since I've had him.  He's still an 11 pt. pitcher (3-4-4), with 11 pt. potential as well.  In fact, it's Hearn who has lost the ratings.  In his prime, his Gibson Award winning year of 1989, Hearn was 15 pts.  At the beginning of this season, he was 14 pts.  Right now, he's 13 pts.: 4-4-5.  Don't get me wrong, 13 pts. is still good for a closer.  But it's not out-of-this-world, which is what Hearn used to be.  In short: Hearn, though still capable of being one of the best closers in the game, is no longer the very best.

 

  b. Also consider this.  Right now, a bunch of the best SPs in the game are in their mid to late 30s.  There's Luis Altagracia (34, ranked #2), Tom Campbell (38, ranked #3), Michael Bowden (36, ranked #5), and so on.  The point is this.  Unlike other positions, perhaps, SPs are still often able to keep it going in their late 30s.

 

  c. Finally, regarding age, here is the way to think about the deal.  Hearn is presently under contract through 1996.  Will Boston keep him after that point?  Maybe, but I could easily see them letting him go as a FA then.  At any rate, to keep him they will need to shell out $$$.  MacGregor is under contract through 1997.  The question for Boston is not whether MacGregor will be able to contribute for them in 1998, 1999, and from then on.  He probably won't, but the same is true of Hearn.  The question is, will they get solid production from him for the 3 years they have him?  I think they would.

 

4. Why do I want to do this deal then?  It's because I *can* use Hearn as a CL, instead of a SP.  That's why it's win/win for both teams.  Even though it's SP for SP, Boston upgrades at one position (rotation) while I upgrade at another (CL).

 

Now, consider the Kennedy for Urive component.

 

1. Urive hit .336/15/57 this year, in about 1/2 a season worth of at bats.  His ratings are 4-3 contact-power.  He plays 5 1B.  Kennedy hit .259/26/103 this year.  His ratings are 3-4 contact power (the opposite of Urive).  He plays 9 C and has a 7 arm.  Here the argument is pretty straightforward from Boston's side...

 

  a. Urive plays a position where it's really easy to find good hitters.  Kennedy plays a position where it's really hard to find good hitters.  So, even if it were the case that Urive was a better hitter than Kennedy, you could still plausibly argue that Kennedy is more valuable.

 

  b. Kennedy really is a well-rated defensive catcher: 9-7.  So, it's not just that he's a catcher.  It's that he has the ratings of a good defensive catcher.

 

  c. Urive is by nature a 1B.  But he will never play there for Boston -- they have MVP Justin Johnston there.  That's why Boston played Urive at 3B this season.  And as a 3B, Urive was a disaster, with a fielding percentage in the .800s.  Going forward, Boston has nowhere to play Urive.  They need to unload him, or else his value will just be wasted for them.

 

  d. In terms of positional rankings, Boston's biggest weakness is C.  Jim Whitney had a decent year for them this year, but in 1993 Whitney hit .218/11/68 in a full season.  So, there's no good reason to think Whitney can keep up his decency.  Kennedy is not only a better offensive catcher than Whitney, he's also better defensively: Whitney is rated 6-5 Catcher-Arm, as compared to Kennedy's 9-7.

 

  e. Urive was a rookie this year, but that's a little misleading because he's an old rookie.  In fact, Urive is 27.  Kennedy is still just 25.

 

If Boston wanted, we could potentially expand this trade to involve other players.  But these are the principal actors we're interested in.

Did you know?

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

That Vincent Carter's Contact rating just dropped a point, from 4 to 3?  Bad timing given that he's about to hit the free agent market.

1995 Admiral Coaching Moves

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Promote Luis "Gizmo" Delgado from AA Manager to ML Pitching Coach, replacing the retired Arthur Ayers.  This move makes Delgado the logical heir apparent to Bob Washington, but it's not a completely done deal.  It will depend on Delgado's performance at the ML level.

 

With the recent retirements, we have a number of mL coaching positions to fill.  Here are our offers.

 

2. MA Tacoma (AAA): Make an offer to Alejandro Alvarado.  Give him whatever he requests up to (but not exceeding) 3 years @ $330K per.  If he wants more than that, get back to us.  Alvarado has great ratings and looks like he could be a future EWB manager.  He hasn't yet put in enough time in the minors (just a few years in SA), so this would both be a promotion for him and give him the experience he needs for an EWB job down the line.

 

3. MA Trenton (AA): Make an offer to Gerardo Alonso.  Give him whatever he requests up to (but not exceeding) 3 years @ $215K per.  If he wants more, get back to us.  Alonso, a grizzled mL veteran, has a remarkable track record of success.  A mL manager since back in 1970, he has won 5 mL Championships and made 14 playoff appearances.  His ratings are a little low, so we suspect me might never get an EWB job.  I'm not sure that would bother him -- he looks like a happy mL lifer.  He has never managed in a league as high as AA, so this again is a kind of promotion.

 

4. HC Trenton (AA): Make an offer to Shigetoki Kato.  I've lost track of what mL hitting coaches make, so why don't you tell me his request before I get back to you with an official offer.

 

5. HC Ralston  (A): Make an offer to Jose Abregon.  Again, I've lost track of what HCs make, so tell me his request.

 

6. MA High Desert (A): Make an offer to Andre Leonard.  No higher than 3 years @ $175K; if he wants more, get back to us.  Leonard has solid ratings at age 50 but 0 years of mL experience.  I'm going to say that he's breaking into the mL game after years of coaching one of the most successful Junior College teams in the country.  We want to give him his first pro shot.

 

7. HC Quebradillas (R): Make an offer to Augusto Cordova.  Again, find out what he wants.

Re: Attention (Gary Buckley)

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Washington is a little better because he has more power (right now, 4 vs. 3) and because he has at least something of a ML track record -- he was a decent player in 1992.  Buckley has no ML track record.  How about a 7th round pick?

Re: Attention

February 17th, 2009 by Admirals GM

El Paso could use a 2B.  They were playing (3B) Javier Martinon there at the end of the season, and he was dreadful defensively -- a .929 fielding percentage.

 

How about a 12th round pick for Buckley?

1994 End of year notes

February 16th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Ron "Tugboat" Taylor retired at age 44.  He actually saw some action back in 1970, so he's an inaugurral player.  The last ever?  I'm not fully sure, but maybe.

 

2. Fred Andrews of KC exercised the last option year on his contract and then immediately retired.  Does he get money for that?  Dick move, if so.

 

3. Michael Suggitt of Las Vegas retired after posting one of the worst years by a SP ever: 2-14, 12.21 ERA, in 104 IP.  I documented this atrocity earlier.

 

4. "Real life" manager John McNamar, who had been affiliated with New York, has now retired.  (In real life, McNamara managed the 1986 Red Sox.)

 

5. Carolina re-signed manager Jose Machado to a 2-year extension.  Again, Machado is the all-time manager leader in Wins AND losses.

 

6. Pete Rose got a contract extension with Memphis (2 years).  That was very much in doubt.

 

7. Denever managerial legend Art Howe, who originally took over the team way back in 1979 (he had a stint in the mid 1980s with LA), has left the team.  Whoever eventually hires Howe will get a great, great manager.

 

8. Denver's new manager, 61-year-old Tim Howell, had a long, long affiliation with the Admirals.  He was our AA Trenton manager from 1970 until 1983, winning 2 Championships and making 8 playoff appearances during his tenure.  He also won a pair of Californian League Championships in the early 1990s.  Yet another mL manager who gets a ML shot late in life thanks to an impressive, impressive mL resume.

 

9. In Las Vegas, GM Brody Harvey was re-signed despite his controversial moves (e.g., the Helmick signing), while manager Don Montgomery was let go (former Bandito).  It's well known that Harvey and Montgomery failed to see eye-to-eye.  Harvey's extension was only 1 year.

 

10. The fact that manager Luis Serrano of Houston was let go -- that's hard to understand.  By the way, Serrarno managed the 1985 Wolverines to the World Series title.

 

11. Wally Reynolds of San Antonio got yet another 1 year extension.  This guy has lived year-to-year for forever.

1994 AL and NL Awards

February 16th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Here are the overal vote totals, including the computer (ignore the e-mail "Subject")

 

NL MVP

1. Johston 18 (2)
2. Rogers 15 (2)
3. Perez 5

4. Kelly 2
4. Brown 2
4. Cartwright 2
 
NL GIBSON
1. Altagracia 18 (2)
2. Koigi 15 (2)

3. Armstrong 8

4. Tracy 2
4. Hearn 2
 

(editorial sidenote: Koigi got screwed.  He should have added his name to the list of those few closers who've won a Gibson Award.)

NL FIREMAN
1. Koigi 18 (3)
2. Villanueva 8
3. Olson 7
 
NL ANGEL ROSA
1. Brown 20 (3)
2. Velasquez 14 (1)
3. O'Rourke 8
4. Borges 2
 
NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
1. Reynolds 10 (1)
2. Anderson 9 (1)
3. Serrano 6 (1)
4. Lee 5
5. Stevens 3
 
NL EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR
1. Backman 15 (2)
2. Vallone 8
3. Gordon 6 (1)
4. Steines 3
5. Valera 2

AL MVP

1. Bicknell 24 (4)

2. Valentin 10  

3. Sims 3

3. Lang 3

5. Patterson 2

5. Picot 2

 

AL GIBSON AWARD

 

1. Morris 24 (4)

2. Jackson 11

3. Barrios 6

4. Perez 3

 

AL ANGEL ROSA AWARD

1. Belcher 24 (4)

2. Ortiz 12

3. Christian 4

4. Juarez 2

4. Ruiz 2

 

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR

1. Machado 9 (1)

2. Morgan 8 (1)

3. Stewart 8

4. Green 6 (1)

5. McKeon 3

 

AL EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

1. Mike 18 (3)

2. Johnson 8

3. Rob 5

4. Clayton 2

Thoughts on Wiederanders

February 12th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Wiederanders is a borderline Hall of Famer; it will be interesting to see which side of the border he falls on.  On the plus side, he won a Gibson Award and 2 World Series Championships (1982 with LA, and 1991 with NY).  On the minus side, his career totals are generally solid, but not indisputable Hall of Fame material.  (Less than 240 Wins, a career ERA around 3.45, etc.) 

 

By the way, Portland could now become real players on the FA market.  For one thing, Wiederanders walked away from $6.7M guaranteed to him for next year.  The Fog Devils are now free to use that money on someone else.  For another thing, Steve "Red Beard" Page is voluntarily taking a whopping $5M pay cut for next year.  Making $5.2M in 1994, Red Beard has agreed to a 1 year extension in 1995 for just $265K.  This was almost certainly a salary mistake on Page's part -- if he became a free agent, I'm sure some team would pay him at least $1M or so (even with his fallen ratings).  But maybe Page just loves Portland so much he's willing to stay there for less.

 

Going beyond Page, Portland has gotten a bunch of players to take dramatic pay cuts for 1995.  1B George Love is going from $2.2M to $575K, even though he's coming off a fairly productive year: .275/30/92.  SP Bob Peterson is going from $2.235M this year to $275K next year.  Now, Peterson is an aging veteran who wasn't very good this year (+5 ERA), but it still is significant that Portland gets to keep him on next year for pennies on the dollar.

 

The Fog Devils have $17.5M in salary commitments for 1995, which is about 1/3 of Washington's commitments (the Admirals already have a payroll pegged around $51M).  Looking at this year's budget, and taking into account that Portland actually lost a little money this year, I assume their budget will be around $32M in 1995.  That gives them about $15M to spend on free agents and/or big salary players acquired through trades.  That's a ton of money for such a small market team.  In fact, I would bet offhand that never in Fog Devils history have they had so much money to throw around in an offseason.  Let's see if they can use that money to good end, and knock off the faltering Admirals.

Fuck Dave Haberman

February 12, 2009 by Admirals GM

Well, Omaha clearly was the better team this year.  They dominated us both in the regular season and in the playoffs -- not only did we lose 4-1, but it felt like we were almost always trailing in these games.  I bet that out of the 45 innings played during the series, we were behind for like 35 of them.

 

As a closing thought, fuck Dave Haberman.

1994 Washington Admirals NL Award Vote

February 11th, 2009 by Admirals GM

My ballot...

 

MVP

 

1. Justin Johnston -- I do factor in team record.

2. Jonathan Rogers -- good, but Johnston edged him in SLG and OPS, and Johnston was injured a little.

3. Albert Perez -- still feels underrated to me.

 

GIBSON

 

1. Mohammed Koigi -- I'm willing to vote for relievers in rare circumstances.  This is one: no dominant SP, but a dominant CL.

2. Luis Altagracia -- year-in-year-out, the guy is good.  In contention with Ed Jackson for best SP in the game.

3. Earl Armstrong -- if he had been healthy in September, probably would've gotten my vote.

 

FIREMAN

 

1. Mohammed Koigi -- no-brainer.

2. Gary Olson -- keeps finishing 2nd.

3. Jesus Villaneuva -- his save percentage is through the roof.

 

ANGEL ROSA

 

1. Tommy Brown -- Unbelievable rookie year.  I feel bad I couldn't rank him in the top 3 for MVP.

2. Pedro Velasquez -- won't be as good a player in the future, now that his ratings have fallen.

3. Jacob O'Rourke -- might turn out to be the best player in the rookie class.

 

MANAGER

 

1. Wally Reynolds -- might vote might be influenced by the idea of casting such a weird vote

2. Sparky Anderson -- has stood out in a way few EWB managers have

3. Bert Lee -- did it all with no real talent on the team

 

EXECUTIVE

 

1. Wayne Gordon -- I like the Velasquez/Hopkins moves

2. Cedric Blackman -- Like Rob said, big credit for the constant tinkering

3. Aroghetto Vallone -- more for longterm recognition than this year alone

1994 NL Awards Ballot

February 10th, 2009 by Admirals GM

NL MVP (OVERALL NOTE: A weird year, with no completely obvious candidate.  A lot of the best years stat-wise were posted by players who weren't in the playoff hunt.)

 

Norman Hopkins, SS, Pittsburgh.  .343/25/118/11, ranking 1st in BA, 8th in RBIs.  Also: T1st in Hits (215), 8th in TB (344), 4th in 3B (8), 7th in VORP (63.3).  Pittsburgh finished 3rd in the Ohio Valley division at 88-74, and were pennant contenders most of the season.  Note: If we had a comeback player of the year award, Hopkins would be a strong candidate.

 

Keith Whitfield, LF, El Paso.  .331/25/82, ranking 2nd in BA.  Also: 2nd in OBP (.442), 3rd in OPS (1.002), 5th in VORP (67.9).  El Paso finished 3rd in the Texas at 81-81, and were never serious playoff contenders.  Comment: Whitfield, the reigning MVP, was limited to 121 games due to injury.

 

Jonathan Rogers, 3B, Detroit.  .337/42/111, ranking 3rd in BA, 5th in HR.  Also: T1st in Hits (215), 3rd in TB (378), 9th in Runs (118), 10th in XBH (76), 6th in SLG (.592), 5th in OPS (.997), and 1st in VORP (80.8).  Detroit finished 4th in their division at 69-93, and were never in the playoff race.  Comment: I ask the same question I asked last year for Rogers: can he Andre Dawson himself to some MVP votes?

 

Cesar Leal, 2B, St. Louis.  .336/15/73/23, ranking 4th in BA.  Also: 4th in Hits (208), 1st in 2Bs (55, 3rd straight year he's led the league in 2Bs), 6th in 3Bs (7), 5th in Runs (122), 9th in XBH (77).  St. Louis won the division behind a 95-67 record.  Comment: He also plays .989 defense at 2B.  Leal is an unconventional candidate -- kind of a Barry-Larkin-in-1995 candidate -- but his across the board numbers really are impressive, and probably is the best offensive player on the Savages.

 

Dan Jamison, 2B, San Antonio.  .334/17/93/30, ranking 5th in BA.  Also: 8th in Hits (197), 2nd in 3Bs (10), 4th in Runs (123), 3rd in OBP (.433), 10th in OPS (.954), 3rd in VORP (74.7).  San Antonio finished 2nd in the Texas at 84-78, and were in the playoff hunt much of the year; this was their first winning season since 1970.  Again, a kind of Barry-Larkin candidacy.  But that 3rd in VORP stands out.

 

Don Kelly, RF, El Paso.  .324/28/86/10.  Also: 1st in OBP (.460), 2nd in OPS (1.014), 2nd in VORP (80.3).  El Paso finished 3rd in Texas at 81-81, and were never serious contenders.  Comment: Kelly keeps plugging along, although he's clearly not the most feared player in the game anymore, the way he used to be.

 

 Justin Johnston, 1B, Boston.  .329/40/118, ranking 8th in BA, 8th in HRs, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 6th in TB (350), 3rd in Runs (124), 7th in XBH (79), 7th in OBP (.407), 2nd in SLG (.610), 1st in OPS (1.017), 4th in VORP (70.2).  Boston won their division with a 94-68 record.  Comment: arguably the most conventional candidate, in the sense that he had a big year as a slugger from a playoff team.

 

 Albert Perez, RF, Montreal.  .312/49/149, ranking 2nd in HR, 2nd in RBIs.  Also: 6th in TB (350), 1st in SLG (.611), 9th in OPS (.973), 10th in VORP (57.3).  Montreal finished in 3rd place at 81-81, on the fringes on the playoff race.  Comment: Perez has had a phenomenal first 2 years in the league.  Really, an Albert Pujols-like first 2 years.

 

Tommy Brown, LF, Montreal.  .312/44/152, ranking 3rd in HR, 1st in RBIs.  Also: 8th in Hits (197), 2nd in TB (383), 8th in 2B (44), 1st in XBH (93), 3rd in SLG (.603).  Again, Montreal was 3rd at 81-81.  Comment: did this all as a rookie.

 

Roy Payton, 1B, Montreal.  .301/43/118, ranking 4th in HRs, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 4th in TB (357), 1st in Runs (147, *new EWB record), 7th in XBH (79), 10th in SLG (.569), 8th in OPS (.973).  Comment: again Montreal, see above.  Comment: is anyone on Montreal not an MVP candidate?

 

Denny Turner, 1B, St. Louis.  .269/47/131, ranking 2nd in HRs, 3rd in RBIs.  Also: 10th in XBH (72).  St. Louis won their division.  Comment: the top slugger on a playoff team.

 

Marv Cartwright, 1B, Indianapolis.  .327/42/118, ranking 5th in HRs, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 3rd in Hits (212), 1st in TB (385), 7th in 2B (45), 2nd in XBH (88), 4th in SLG (.594).  Indinapolis was last in their division at 65-97.  Comment: Cartwright gets underrated in rankings b/c he's bad at VORP/BBs.  But the guy can hit.

 

Jacob O'Rourke, 2B, Austin.  .332/29/130, ranking 6th in BA, 4th in RBIs.  Also: 2nd in 3Bs (10), 5th in SLG (.593), 7th in OPS (.977), 6th in VORP (66.0).  Austin finished 4th in the division at 76-86.  Comment: overlooked a little bit because of the Marhsalls' down year, but the guy is an instant star at 2B.  And, another rookie.

 

Arturo Borges, 1B, Austin.  .329/38/98, ranking 9th in BA.  Also: 5th in OBP (.420), 8th in SLg (.579), 4th in OPS (.999), 9th in VORP (60.6).  Again, Austin finished 4th at 76-86.  Comment: Another Austin rookie from the right side of their IF.

 

Will Gray, 3B, Cleveland.  .300/29/126, ranking 5th in RBIs.  Also: 5th in K's (137), 5th in 2Bs (47), 4th in XBH (82).  Cleveland won the Wild Card with a 91-71 record.  Comment: probably the best offensive player for the Rockers.

 

Pedro Velasquez, 1B, Pittsburgh.  .313/41/123, ranking 7th in HRs, 7th in RBIs.  Also: 5th in TBs (353), 6th in XBH (81), 6th in OBP (.411), 7th in SLG (.584), 6th in OPS (.996), 8th in VORP (62.6).  Pittsburgh finished 3rd at 88-74.  Comment: Another rookie, Velasquez trailed off just a little after a sensational start.

 

Dave Franklin, 3B, Houston.  .293/40/106, ranking 8th in HRs.  Not in the top 10 in any oher category.  Houston had the best record in the NL at 97-65.  Comment: listed because he's probably the best offensive player on the best team in the league.

 

Mohammed Koigi, CL, Houston.  49 Saves in 51 chances (96.1%), 1.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 86 K's in 69.2 IP, 11.11 K/9, opponents BA around .160, VORP of 35.6.  Houston had the best record in the NL.  Comment the most dominant player on the best team in the league, Koigi is the rare closer who might get MVP votes.

 

BOB GIBSON AWARD

 

Earl Armstrong, SP, Cleveland.  14-7, 3.05, 160 K's in 180 IP, 1.21 WHIP, ranking 7th in Wins, 1st in ERA.  Also: 5th in Win % (.667), 8th in K/9 (8.00), 9th in QS (19), 5th in QS% (.613), 4th in CG (2), 7th in VORP (51.5).  Cleveland is the Wild Card.  Comment: Armstrong was probably the leading candidate for the award prior to his injury on 9/6.

 

Desmond MacGilip, SP, Montreal.  14-10, 3.27, 180 K's in 212 IP, and 1.21 WHIP, ranking 7th in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 8th in K's, 4th in IP, 10th in WHIP.  Also: 1st in QS (24), 2nd in QS% (.686), 3rd in VORP (59.2).  Montreal finished 3rd at 81-81.  Comment: MacGilip won the Award back in 1986.  He seems to thrive in the NL as opposed to the AL.

 

Luis Altagracia, SP, St. Louis.  16-6, 3.27, 194 K's in 231 IP, 1.11 WHIP, ranking 1st in Wins, 3rd in ERA, 5th in K's, 1st in IP, 3rd in WHIP.  Also: 1st in Win % (.727), 6th in QS (20), 3rd in QS% (.667), 1st in VORP (70.9).  St. Louis won their division.  Comment: Somehow or other, Altagracia worked his way into yet another Gibson Award contention.  Altagracia won the award in 1987 and 1992.

 

Norman Banks, SP, New York.  15-12, 3.29, 196 K's in 227 IP, 1.11 WHIP, ranking 3rd in Wins, 4th in ERA, 4th in K's, 3rd in IP, 2nd in WHIP.  Also: 1st in QS (24), 2nd in QS% (.686), 2nd in VORP (61.9).

 

Frank "Mounds" Hearn, SP/CL, Boston.  12-6, 3.36, 186 K's in 169 IP, 1.05 WHIP, ranking 5th in ERA, 6th in K's, 1st in WHIP.  Also: 5th in Win% (.667), 1st in K/9 (9.91), 1st in K/BB (9.30 -- that's a remarkable figure), 10th in VORP (44.4).  Boston won their division.  Comment: should figure in that he had 7 Saves this year as a closer as well.  Quesiton: did Hearn wear out over the year as a starter?  Consider his month-by-month ERA: 1.44 in May (1st full month as starter), 2.04 in June, 3.31 in July, 4.86 in August, 6.41 in September.

 

Tom Campbell, SP, Pittsburgh.  12-10, 3.36, 181 K's in 203.1 IP, 1.20 WHIP, ranking 6th in ERA, 7th in K's, 8th in WHIP. Also: 7th in K/9 (8.01), 3rd in QS (23), 1st in QS% (.697), 2nd in CG (4), 54.1 VORP (4th).  Pittsburgh finished in 3rd in division at 88-74.  Comment: Campbell won the award last year.

 

Victorio Aguirre, SP, St. Louis.  15-7, 3.73, 213 K's in 198 IP, 1.18 WHIP, ranking 3rd in Wins, 10th in ERA, 2nd in K's.  Also: 4th in Win % (.682), 3rd in K/9 (9.68), 5th in QS (21), 4th in QS % (.656), 5th in VORP (51.6).  St. Louis won their division.  Comment: Aguirre's current ratings: 4-4-4.  Aguirre's potential ratings: 2-3-3.  The scouts, then, are predicting a burnout for the 23-year-old Aguirre.

 

Carlos Valencia, SP, Cleveland.  16-13, 3.89, 91 K's in 208 IP, 1.25 WHIP, ranked 1st in Wins.  Also: 6th in QS (20), 8th in QS % (.583), 4th in CG (2).  Cleveland won the Wild Card.  Comment: For the 38-year-old Valencia, this has been a career year.  Really, the guy has hardly any years among the league leaders in anything prior to 1994.

 

Jeff Baird, SP, Pittsburgh.  15-8, 3.57, 172 K's in 211.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, ranked 3rd in Wins, 7th in ERA, 5th in IP, 6th in WHIP.  Also: 7th in Win% (.652), 9th in QS (19), 6th in VORP (51.5).  Pittsburgh finished 88-74.  Comment: last year Baird lost a league leading 18 games.

 

Mohammed Koigi, CL, Houston.  49 Saves in 51 chances (96.1%), 1.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 86 K's in 69.2 IP, 11.11 K/9, opponents BA around .160, VORP of 35.6.  Houston had the best record in the NL.  Comment the most dominant player on the best team in the league, Koigi is the rare closer who is a serious, serious Gibson contender.

 

Jesus Villanueva, CL, Pittsburgh.  43 Saves in 45 Chances (95.6%), 3.32 ERA, 7.65 K/9, 1.24 WHIP, 16.9 VORP.  Ranked 2nd in Saves.  Pittsburgh finished 88-74, good for 3rd.  Comment: Another big season for Villaneuva.

 

Edward Clark, CL, Cleveland.  40 Saves in 47 Chances (85.1%), 3.93 ERA, 8.52 K/9, 1.50 WHIP, 12.6 VORP.  Cleveland won the Wild Card.  Comment: that WHIP is startlingly high for a closer.  Don't expect Clark to last long in this role.

 

Gary Olson, CL, New York.  39 Saves in 43 Chances (90.7%), 2.70 ERA, 9.85 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 19.2 VORP.  New York finished 2nd in their division.  Comment: Olson keeps coming in 2nd for the Fireman Award.

 

FIREMAN OF THE YEAR

 

Mohammed Koigi, CL, Houston.  49 Saves in 51 chances (96.1%), 1.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 86 K's in 69.2 IP, 11.11 K/9, opponents BA around .160, VORP of 35.6.  Houston had the best record in the NL.  Comment the most dominant player on the best team in the league, Koigi is the rare closer who is a serious, serious Gibson contender.

 

Jesus Villanueva, CL, Pittsburgh.  43 Saves in 45 Chances (95.6%), 3.32 ERA, 7.65 K/9, 1.24 WHIP, 16.9 VORP.  Ranked 2nd in Saves.  Pittsburgh finished 88-74, good for 3rd.  Comment: Another big season for Villaneuva.

 

Edward Clark, CL, Cleveland.  40 Saves in 47 Chances (85.1%), 3.93 ERA, 8.52 K/9, 1.50 WHIP, 12.6 VORP.  Cleveland won the Wild Card.  Comment: that WHIP is startlingly high for a closer.  Don't expect Clark to last long in this role.

 

Gary Olson, CL, New York.  39 Saves in 43 Chances (90.7%), 2.70 ERA, 9.85 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 19.2 VORP.  New York finished 2nd in their division.  Comment: Olson keeps coming in 2nd for the Fireman Award.

 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

 

Tommy Brown, LF, Montreal.  .312/44/152, ranking 3rd in HR, 1st in RBIs.  Also: 8th in Hits (197), 2nd in TB (383), 8th in 2B (44), 1st in XBH (93), 3rd in SLG (.603).  Again, Montreal was 3rd at 81-81.  Comment: did this all as a rookie.

 

Jacob O'Rourke, 2B, Austin.  .332/29/130, ranking 6th in BA, 4th in RBIs.  Also: 2nd in 3Bs (10), 5th in SLG (.593), 7th in OPS (.977), 6th in VORP (66.0).  Austin finished 4th in the division at 76-86.  Comment: overlooked a little bit because of the Marhsalls' down year, but the guy is an instant star at 2B.  And, another rookie.

 

Arturo Borges, 1B, Austin.  .329/38/98, ranking 9th in BA.  Also: 5th in OBP (.420), 8th in SLg (.579), 4th in OPS (.999), 9th in VORP (60.6).  Again, Austin finished 4th at 76-86.  Comment: Another Austin rookie from the right side of their IF.

 

Pedro Velasquez, 1B, Pittsburgh.  .313/41/123, ranking 7th in HRs, 7th in RBIs.  Also: 5th in TBs (353), 6th in XBH (81), 6th in OBP (.411), 7th in SLG (.584), 6th in OPS (.996), 8th in VORP (62.6).  Pittsburgh finished 3rd at 88-74.  Comment: Another rookie, Velasquez trailed off after a sensational start.

 

Mike Sharp, SS, Cleveland.  .297/29/124, ranking 6th in RBIs.  Also: 10th in Runs (116), 9th in OBP (.406).  Cleveland won the Wild Card.  Comment: Sharp also played .988 defense at SS.

 

David Alexander, SS, El Paso.  .323/9/57/18.  5th in Hits at 200.  El Paso finished 81-81.  Comment: looks like a great table setter for years to come in El Paso.

 

Tom Rogers, SS, San Antonio.  .300/15/47/35, ranking 5th in SBs.  San Antonio finished 84-78.  Comment: with still some potential yet to fulfill, Rogers looks like a star in the making.

 

Lawrence Britton, MR, Boston.  5-2, 2.02, 98 K's in 75.2 IP, 14.21 K/9 (check that again), 1.28 WHIP (47 BBs in 75 IP, but just 50 Hits allowed), 31.2 VORP.  Boston won their division.  Comment; Britton is Hearn's replacement as closer.  The guy is 5-4-3 actual, 5-4-5 potential.  A 1993 draftee, the only question is: When will Sparky Anderson move him to the rotation?

 

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

 

Sparky Anderson, Boston.  The guy is probably the most innovative manager in the league: Mounds Hearn in the rotation, Pancho Urive playing 3B, it doesn't stop.  And he gets special credit for leading Boston back into the playoffs this year after New York had a huge lead early in the season.  With a manager like Anderson, it's fair to say he's got to be one of the best regarded managers in baseball.  The only question is, is this one of those years when you reward him?  Boston improved 11 games this year, from 83 Wins in 1993 to 94 Wins in 1994.

 

Felix Cabrera, Montreal.  In his 2nd season in Montreal, Cabrera led the Knights to a 12 game improvement, going 81-81 after a 69-93 season in 1993.  Cabrera gets credit for getting insanely good production out of his young sluggers.  On the other hand, though, Montreal hasn't quite reached the promise land just yet.  So Cabrera might be a season off the award.

 

Alexis Stevens, St. Louis.  The Savages improved 6 games this year, going 95-67 in 1994.  Year after year, Stevens gets great production out of his starting rotation.  Here's a notable fact.  St. Louis was 12th in the NL in BA (.266), 14th in OBP (.329), and yet they still managed to be 4th in runs scored.  In part, this is because they're so good at running: 2nd in stolen bases.  On the downside, he probably should've gone away from closer Ismael Pineda at some point this year (a 5.15 ERA and just a 75.6% Closer percentage, but still used as closer all year long).

 

Bert Lee, Cleveland.  After a long, fairly successful minor league career, the 62-year-old Lee finally got his big league shot in 1994, and Cleveland came out of nowhere to win the Wild Card.  The Rockers went 82-80 last year, so there 91-71 record this season qualifies as a 9 game improvement -- good, but hardly unheard of.  Still, it was only the Rockers 2nd playoff appearance in franchise history, and Lee was able to lead the team through Earl Armstrong's traumatic September injury.  Lee got a career year out of journeyman starter Carlos Valencia, closer Edward Clark, and a variety of offensive player.  Looking up and down their roster, you still don't see that much talent.  Cleveland simply overachieved this year, and the credit for that often goes at least in part to the manager.

 

Luis Serrano, Houston.  Serrano has been in charge of the Black Gold since 1988, and team management has been patient with him: staying with him for 7 years now despite the fact that he never made the playoffs prior to this year.  Finally, he had a breakthrough this year.  Houston improved 17 games this year, going 97-65 after going 80-82 last season.  That's the 2nd biggest improvement in all the NL.  Houston had an amazing Pythagorean Differential of +12 -- according to the formula they only should've won 85 games this year instead of 97.  That's the biggest differential in all of EWB.  In part, that might just be due to Koigi in the bullpen (the formula notoriously has trouble accounting for dominant closers), but in part Serrano gets credit: he got more wins out of the team than he "should" have.

 

Wally Reynolds, San Antonio.  I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that this is the first year Reynolds has ever appeared on the manager of the year ballot.  But he deserved it.  First, the team had it's first finish above last place since 1987.  That's stunning.  2nd, they had their 1st finish better than 4th since Reynolds took over way back in 1978.  In fact, their 84-68, 2nd place finish is tied for the greatest in franchise history: they also went 84-68 and finished 2nd way back in 1970.  They had not finished above .500 since then until this season.  Besides this awful history, Reynolds has some serious credentials this year.  The team went from 65 Wins in 1993 to 84 in 1994, a 19 game improvement.  That's the biggest improvement in all the NL, and I believe in all of EWB.  And, the fact is that Reynolds did this without hardly any talent in the starting rotation.

 

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

 

Takuma Endo, Boston.  Endo had an up-and-down year.  He traded stud Pedro Velasquez for veteran SP Thomas Graham, a deal that clearly favored Pittsburgh.  (Even with Justin Johnston ahead of Velasquez, Boston should've tried to get more in exchange.)  He signed FA 2B Teko de Bode for the league minimum on 4/21 of the year, which earns a lot of credit.  But then he traded de Bode to Carolina for MR Lou Murray, who was nothing special for the team.  He traded RF Daniel Pena, who looks like he might bea solid ML starter (4-3 actual), in exchange for San Antonio Closer Allen Williams, who's okay but really just a seat warmer until Britton takes over the job.  Also, there's always a kind of competition for credit between manager and GM, and Anderson (rightly or wrongly) gets a lot of the credit in Boston.

 

Joe Steines, Montreal.  Steines was the architect of Dallas' 1990 World Championship team, and he's making a name for himself in Montreal as well.  He signed SP Desmond MacGilip and 3B Porter Scott this offseason, 2 huge additions.  Also continues to get credit for the Frank Patterson/Tommy Brown trade: Steines recognized Montreal had a glut at 1B, and was able to get a bona fide star for the star Patterson.  One concern: Is it too early to vote for Steines for this award?  That is, should you wait until Montreal makes the playoffs?

 

Cedric Backman, Cleveland.  Backman hired manager Bert Lee, which looks like a great move given that he's led the Rockers to their first playoff appearance since 1988 and 2nd ever.  He acquired utility IF Conan Worley (a non-trivial contributor) for next to nothing form Austin.  He signed Chi-ming Khu as a cheap offseason free agent ($390K), and then turned around and traded Khu during the regular season for veteran SP Manny Pineiro (11-11, 4.58 on the year), who will be Cleveland's Ace for the postseason, given the loss of Armstrong.  He signed veteran LF Herbert Hayes to a free agent contract for the EWB minimum, and then Hayes went on to have a pretty productive year, going .288/10/56/17.  Might not sound like much, but moves like this are crucial for tiny market teams like Cleveland.  He signed 4 time Gold Clove CF Phil O'Roddam for the league minimum during the season (in fact, on 5/15), and O'Roddam played huge down the stretch, going .348/4/10/2 with a 9.3 VORP all in September (after spending the first several months in AAA), which was badly needed because Cleveland was fading badly during the month.  I could keep listing minimum contract in-season signees, but the list goes on forever.  Backman really liked to tinker and experiment with EWB riff-raff.  (Although one notable signee: Emilio Cabrera, who re-signed with the Rockers after beginning his career there from 1979-1985.  Cabrera spent all of 1994 in AAA.)  One notorious move: the Earl Armstrong for Diaz/Hernandez trade.  Especially bad because Hernandez in turn was traded to Atlanta for nothing special.

 

Wayne Gordon, Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh faded a bit in July/August, but made a September push to end up at 88 Wins, just 3 games out of the Wild Card.  If the Crusaders had made the playoffs, I think Gordon might be a lock for the award.  His 2 biggest moves were this.  First, he traded nobody SP Thomas Graham to Boston for rookie 1B Pedro Velasquez, an MVP and Angel Rosa candidate in 1994.  Second, he signed free agent SS Norman Hopkins to an unbelievable cheap $730K deal, even though Hopkins was coming off a $9M per season contract.  In his one year with Pittsburgh, Hopkins won the NL batting crown and was an MVP candidate.  Two excellent, excellent moves.  On the downside, his signing of FA MR Eric Seymour looks like a costly mistake ($3.8M per for 2 years, and Seymour had a +5 ERA in 1994).  And also, he failed to make any significant in-season moves, even as Pittsburgh was fading.  How heavily does that count against him?

 

Aroghetto Vallone, Houston.  The only Italian GM in the league to my knowledge, Vallone gets credit for Houston's NL leading 97 Wins.  He traded nobodies to get 38-year-old SP and 4th starter Jesus Gomez from D.C., where Gomez went 12-9 and 4.51 on the year.  Aside from that, Houston didn't make hardly any offseason or inseason moves.  Instead, they patiently reaped the rewards of player development.  Remember, for years the Black Gold had one of the highest mL systems in all of EWB.  Well, those mLers contributed at the ML level this year.  Most obviously there's Koigi, the most dominant closer in baseball.  There's also Chris Edgar, Juan Bravo, Dave Franklin, and Alfredo Lopez, all young offensive players who either came up through the Black Gold system or at least first flourished with them.

 

Pablo Lara, San Antonio.  Lara is one of the most famous GMs in all of EWB thanks to his free-wheeling days in Chicago.  He has already made a stir in San Antonio.  The magnitude of the Aztecas improvement this year was already covered above in connection with Reynolds.  Here, let me focus on Lara's unique contributions.  For one, he kept Reynolds on as manager, despite all the world of criticism against the move, and now Reynolds is a leading candidate for manager of the year.  He acquired RP Daniel Munoz from Portland in the offseason, where Munoz was one of those solid relievers who made up the team strength of the Aztecas, the bullpen.  He traded SP Joe Sampson to DC in exchange for LF Greg Cooper, who went on to hit .280/10 for the Aztecas this year, and shored up a glaring weakspot for the team: OF.  He managed to sign upcoming star 2B Doug Jamison to a year deal for $2.6M per year to cover his arbitration period, a huge move for the small market Aztecas given that Jamison looked like a star this year who could've commanded much more.  He traded RP Allen Williams to Boston in exchange for LF David Pena, a 4-3 player who contributed nicely down the stretch.  This move was especially notable for how much sense it made for the Aztecas: they had a comparative strength in the bullpen and a horrible weakness in OF, and the move addressed that nicely.  He acquired Doug Kelly from Washington for a minor league SP, and then turned around and signed Kelly for a 1-year extension well under what Kelly was demanding from the Admirals.

1994 Washington Admirals Award Vote

February 10th, 2009 by Admirals GM

My ballot...

 

MVP

 

1. Bicknell, pretty self-evident.

2. Rafael Valentin.  Valentin keeps getting screwed.  He also posted a phenomenal year in 1990 with Boston, only to be edged by an even better year by Don Kelly.

3. Frank Patterson.  Best offensive year from a player from the best team.

BOB GIBSON

1. Kevin Morris.  Obvious in the sense that he's just a little bit ahead of everyone in just about every major category.

2. Ed Jackson.  In all likelihood, this will be Jackson's 2nd straight year finishing 2nd for the Award.  If it makes up for it, you can tell him I regard him as the best pitcher in EWB today.

3. Bartolo Barrios.  Sort of the forgotten man among young star pitchers today.

 

FIREMAN

1. Julio "Punk" Perez.  Still just 28-years-old.

2. Stu MacNiter.  When we started EWB, the best closers in baseaball were this generation: Ned Gordon, Frank Hearn, Punk Perez, Joe Murphy, Cris Rosario.  With the exception of Perez and maybe Murphy, that generation has now been supplanted by players like MacNiter and Koigi: the new generation of dominant closers.

3. Duane Lawrence.  Underrated.

 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1. Craig Belcher.  I predict the computer won't vote for Belcher.

2. Lucio Ortiz.  Instead, they will vote for Ortiz.

3. Wilfred Christian.  As assistant GM, let me pass it on that KC would be willing to trade Christian, because of their tremendous 1B depth in the mL system.

 

MANAGER

1. Jose Machado.  Maybe I'm being influenced by sentiment.

2. Joe Stewart.  Chicago objectively sucks.

3. Dave Morgan.  Obvious reasons.

 

GM

1. Mike.  I meant that last season's voting was "screwy" only in the sense that Mike was too "noble" to vote for himself.  If he had, he would've won (regardless of Miami's vote).

2. Rob.  Miami both made moves for this season and positioned themselves well for the next several years.

3. Robbie Johnson.

1994 AL Awards Ballot

February 9th, 2009 by Admirals GM

AL MVP

 

Frank Patterson, DH, Omaha.  .355/33/121, ranking 1st in BA, 9th in RBIs.  Also: 1st in Hits (228), 4th in TB (358), 8th in R (115), 8th in OBP (.404), 9th in OPS (.962), and 6th in VORP (63.3).  Omaha finished with the best record in all of EWB at 107-55.  Comment: I don't know if it matters, but Patterson saw no action defensively this year.

 

Craig Belcher, LF, Omaha.  .346/35/122, ranking 2nd in BA, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 6th in Hits (195), 8th in TB (328), 5th in OBP (.417), 8th in SLG (.582), 5th in OPS (.998), and 8th in VORP (58.2).  Again, Omaha had the best record at 107-55.  Comment: Belcher did this all as a rookie.

 

Artie Bicknell, CF, Washington.  .343/51/159, ranking 3rd in BA, 1st in HRs (tie), 1st in RBIs (setting a new EWB record in RBIs).  Also: 5th in Hits (194), 1st in TB (388), 1st in Runs (141), 3rd in OBP (.426), 1st in SLG (.669), 1st in OPS (1.095), 1st in VORP (104.7, which is the 6th highest VORP total in EWB history).  Washington finished in the Mountain West, going 88-74.  Comment: Bicknell also played a respectable CF (started there most of the year), a prime defensive position.

 

Rafael Valentin, 1B, Carolina.  .303/51/137, ranking 1st in HRs (tie), 3rd in RBIs.  Also: 1st in Games (162), 2nd in TB (387), 6th in 2Bs (42), 6th in Runs (117), 1st in XBH (94), 3rd in SLUG (.617), 4th in OPS (1.003), 4th in VORP (64.7)  Carolina finished tied for the Wild Card at 86-76, but got screwed out of a play-in game.  Comment: This is the 3rd time in Valentin's career he led the league (or tied for lead) in HRs.

 

Caleb Lang, 1B, Los Angeles.  .333/39/130, ranking 6th in BA, 7th in HRs, 4th in RBIs.  Also: 8th in Hits (193), 6th in TB (350), 10th in Runs (110), 2nd in OBP (.435) 5th in SLG (.604), 2nd in OPS (1.039), 2nd in VORP 74.8.  L.A. finished with the worst record in all of EWB at 55-107.  Lang can't be blamed for L.A.'s bad season; he continues to produce at a remarkable rate, under the radar; kind of reminds me of what Will Clark was supposed to be.

 

Lucio Ortiz, SS, Memphis.  .337/21/117, ranking 5th in BA.  Also: 7th in Hits (194), 1st in 2Bs (49), 7th in XBH (72), 6th in OBP (.410), 5th in VORP (64.1).  Memphis finished 3rd in the Colonial Division at 77-85, making their first run at a playoff appearance in years before fading down the stretch.  Comments: As measured by his defensive stats, Ortiz also played a competent SS.

 

Carl Morgan, CF, Miami.  .307/23/123.  Also: 8th in SFs (8).  Miami finished 1st in the Colonial at 98-64.  Comment: plays CF.

 

Miguel Torres, LF, Miami.  .269/43/114, ranking 6th in HRs.  Also: 9th in SLG (.563).  Miami finished 1st in the Colonial at 98-64.  Comment: keeps improving each year.

 

Mike Robinson, DH, Washington.  .332/20/92/25, ranking 8th in BA.  Also: 4th in Hits (202), 5th in 3Bs (8), 4th in Runs (123), 7th in XBH (55), 4th in OBP (.426), 3rd in VORP (73.0).  Washington finished 1st in the Mountain West at 88-74.  Comment: Robinson was primarily a DH this year, and so made little defensive contribution.

 

Paul Sims, LF/1B, Atlanta.  .329/49/141, ranking 10th in BA, 3rd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs.  Also: 2nd in Hits (214), 6th in K's (141), 3rd in TB (386), 7th in SLG (.593), 10th in OPS (.961), 7th in VORP (61.1).  Atlanta finished 4th (tied for last) in the Colonial division at 74-88.  Comment: Sims always strikes me as a no-shit mercenary who will put up huge offensive stats wherever -- he kind of reminds me of an Albert Belle type.

 

Ben Lindsay, 1B, Omaha.  .293/47/125, ranking 4th in HRs, 7th in RBIs.  Also: 5th in K's (142), 5th in TB's (356), 7th in XBH (72).  Again, Omaha had the best record.  Comment: Kind of remarkable that Lindsay only ended up with a 6.9 VORP; so according to VORP, Lindsay is far less offensively valuable than Brandon Kent is for me (who hit .264/14/47).  What gives?  This: Lindsay only walked 24 times on the year, and so only had a .318 OBP.  In my view, you can take this as another illustration of the limitations of VORP.

 

Clinton Picot, C, Minneapolis.  .307/46/121, ranking 5th in HRs, 9th in RBIs.  Also: 7th in TB (329), 10th in XBH (71), 4th in SLG (.612), 6th in OPS (.997), 10th in VORP (56.7).  Minneapolis won the Wild Card this year with an 86-76 record (+ play-in win).  Comment: As a catcher, Picot nailed 35.1% of opposing baserunners.

 

Jimmy Garrett, 3B, Omaha.  .294/38/130/13, ranking 9th in HRs, 4th in RBIs.  Also: 10th in TB (322).  Omaha finished with the best record.  Comment: The reigning MVP made significant strides in the field this year, posting a .962 Fielding % after seasons of .933 and .936 the previous two years.

 

Dave Page, 1B, New Orleans.  .312/27/95.  Also: 1st in OBP (.460), 7th in OPS (.996), 9th in VORP (58.0).  New Orleans finished 4th (tied for last) in Colonial Division at 74-88.  Comment: Would've been a stronger candidate if injury hadn't limited him to 127 games.

 

Vincent Carter, C, Denver.  .301/38/109, ranking 9th in HRs.  Also: 2nd in SLG (.636), 3rd in OPS (1.011), 5th in VORP (61.3).  Denver finished 5th in the Plains at 76-86.  Comment: Carter put these numbers up in just 110 games due to injury; projected over an entire 162-game season, he's hitting around 55 HRs with 160 RBIs.  Also: baserunners are stealing way more on Carter than they used to when he was younger.

 

NO PITCHERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED, AS I DON'T THINK ANYONE IS WORTHY OF THE AWARD THIS YEAR

 

BOB GIBSON AWARD

 

Kevin Morris, SP, Miami.  19-4, 3.18, 187 K's in 223.2 IP, 1.22 WHIP, ranking 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 6th in K's, 3rd in IP, and 3rd in WHIP.  Also: 1st in Win % (.826), 6th in K/9 (8.05), 1st in QS (22), 1st in QS% (.667), 2nd in VORP (64.8).  Miami won their division.  Comment: From June until the end of the season, Morris was 11-0 with a 2.63 ERA.

 

Bartolo Barrios, SP, Kansas City.  13-7, 3.33, 214 K's in 208.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, ranking 2nd in ERA, 1st in K's, 9th in IP, and 4th in WHIP.  Also: 7th in Win % (.650), 2nd in K/9 (9.24), 2nd in QS (21), 4th in QS% (.618), 3rd in VORP (60.1).  Kansas City finished 4th in their division at 83-79.  Comment: If Barrios had any run production whatsoever (KC's offense was worst in the AL), he might have been able to win close to 20 games.

 

Ed Jackson, SP, Omaha.  18-8, 3.34, 210 K's in 215.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, ranking 2nd in Wins, 3rd in ERA, 2nd in K's, 4th in IP, 1st in WHIP.  Also: 3rd in Win % (.692), 5th in K/9 (8.76), 5th in QS (20), 2nd in QS% (.645), 2nd in CG (3), 1st in VORP (65.8).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Because Omaha was so far ahead, they limited Jackson to just 3 September starts, keeping his season totals down a bit.

 

Joe MacGregor, SP, Washington.  16-9, 3.94, 152 K's in 203.1 IP, 1.30 WHIP, ranking 4th in Wins, 5th in ERA, 7th in WHIP.  Also: 8th in Win % (.640), 5th in QS (20), 3rd in QS % (.625), 7th in CGs (2).  Washington finished 1st in the Mountain West.  Comment: I find it kind of amazing that a 3.94 ERA could be good enough for 5th in the league, but there you have it.

 

Carlos Pena, SP, Chicago.  11-12, 3.64, 184 K's in 200.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP, ranking 4th in ERA, 7th in K's, 8th in WHIP.  Also: 2nd in QS (21), 4th in QS % (.618), 7th in K/9 (8.27), 4th in VORP (54.5).  Chicago finished tied for the Wild Card at 86-76, but lost the play-in game.  Comment: something of a comeback year for the 2-time Gibson winner (1986, 1990).

 

Nate Harris, SP, Minneapolis.  17-9, 4.13, 155 K's in 213.1 IP, 1.17 WHIP, ranking 3rd in Wins, 8th in ERA, 5th IP, and 2nd in WHIP.  Also: 5th in Win % (.654), 2nd in QS (21), 6th in QS% (.600), 7th in VORP (43.9).  Minneapolis won the Wild Card, going 86-76.  Comment: another solid season for the free agent to be.

 

Clayton Jones, SP, Omaha.  16-8, 4.34, 149 K's in 164 IP, 1.36 WHIP, ranking 4th in Wins.  Also: 4th in Win % (.667), 8th in K/9 (8.18).  Omaha had the best record.  Comment: Injuries limited him to 28 starts; if he had a full season, could've possibly gotten to 20 Wins.

 

Shawn Carr, MR, Omaha.  11-2, 2.94, 161 K's in 141 IP, 1.12 WHIP, ranking 5th in VORP.  Also: 2nd in Games (74), 6th in Holds (18).  Omaha had the best record.  Comment: It's unusual to include a MR in consideration for the award, but it's unusual to have a MR rank in the top 5 in VORP.  After struggling in April and May, Carr was phenomenal the rest of the way.  He had 10.28 K/9, and check out that win-loss record.  I suspect that Carr was a big part of why Omaha had such a good record in extra inning games.  A major playoff weapon as well.

 

Stu MacNiter, CL, Minneapolis.  42 Saves in 47 Chances (89.4%), 2.32 ERA, 9.15 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 24.5 VORP.  Ranked 1st in Saves.  Minneapolis is the Wild Card.  Comment: this is the 3rd straight season MacNiter has led the AL in Saves.

 

Joe Murphy, CL, Kansas City.  41 Saves in 48 Chances (85.4), 2.38 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 1.21 WHIP, 28.0 VORP.  Ranked 2nd in Saves.  Comment: Kansas City finished 4th in the Plains Division.  Comment: still great, but that save percentage is a little low.

 

Cory Davidson, CL, Washington.  39 Saves in 46 Chances (84.8%), 3.22 ERA, 6.14 K/9, 1.31 WHIP, 15.6 VORP.  Ranked 3rd in Saves.  Washington won their division.  Comment: I think like 5 of his 7 BSs came vs. Omaha.

 

Duane Lawrence, CL, Carolina.  39 Saves in 42 Chances (92.9%), 2.17 ERA, 8.95 K/9, 1.06 WHIP, 24.2 VORP.  Ranked 3rd in Saves.  Carolina finished tied for the Wild Card, but got screwed by the play-in system.  Comment: the bullpen was arguably Carolina's top team strength, and Lawrence was their anchor.

 

Julio "Punk" Perez, CL, Omaha.  38 Saves in 42 Chances (90.5%), 1.32 ERA, 9.83 K/9, 0.90 WHIP, 31.1 VORP.  Ranked 5th in Saves.  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: The ERA and WHIP obviously stand out.

 

FIREMAN OF THE YEAR

 

Stu MacNiter, CL, Minneapolis.  42 Saves in 47 Chances (89.4%), 2.32 ERA, 9.15 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 24.5 VORP.  Ranked 1st in Saves.  Minneapolis is the Wild Card.  Comment: this is the 3rd straight season MacNiter has led the AL in Saves.

 

Joe Murphy, CL, Kansas City.  41 Saves in 48 Chances (85.4), 2.38 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 1.21 WHIP, 28.0 VORP.  Ranked 2nd in Saves.  Comment: Kansas City finished 4th in the Plains Division.  Comment: still great, but that save percentage is a little low.

 

Cory Davidson, CL, Washington.  39 Saves in 46 Chances (84.8%), 3.22 ERA, 6.14 K/9, 1.31 WHIP, 15.6 VORP.  Ranked 3rd in Saves.  Washington won their division.  Comment: I think like 5 of his 7 BSs came vs. Omaha.

 

Duane Lawrence, CL, Carolina.  39 Saves in 42 Chances (92.9%), 2.17 ERA, 8.95 K/9, 1.06 WHIP, 24.2 VORP.  Ranked 3rd in Saves.  Carolina finished tied for the Wild Card, but got screwed by the play-in system.  Comment: the bullpen was arguably Carolina's top team strength, and Lawrence was their anchor.

 

Julio "Punk" Perez, CL, Omaha.  38 Saves in 42 Chances (90.5%), 1.32 ERA, 9.83 K/9, 0.90 WHIP, 31.1 VORP.  Ranked 5th in Saves.  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: The ERA and WHIP obviously stand out.

 

(NOTE: Shawn Carr isn't eligible for this award because even though he's a reliever, he's not a closer.)

 

ANGEL ROSA MEMORIAL AWARD

 

Craig Belcher, LF, Omaha.  .346/35/122, ranking 2nd in BA, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 6th in Hits (195), 8th in TB (328), 5th in OBP (.417), 8th in SLG (.582), 5th in OPS (.998), and 8th in VORP (58.2).  Again, Omaha had the best record at 107-55.  Comment: Belcher did this all as a rookie.

 

Lucio Ortiz, SS, Memphis.  .337/21/117, ranking 5th in BA.  Also: 7th in Hits (194), 1st in 2Bs (49), 7th in XBH (72), 6th in OBP (.410), 5th in VORP (64.1).  Memphis finished 3rd in the Colonial Division at 77-85, making their first run at a playoff appearance in years before fading down the stretch.  Comments: As measured by his defensive stats, Ortiz also played a competent SS.  Ortiz actually had a higher VORP than Belcher.

 

Jose Ruiz, LF, New Orleans.  .297/14/79/34, ranking 7th in SBs.  Also: 1st in 3Bs (12), 10th in Runs (110).  New Orleans finished tied for 4th (last) in their division.  Comment: the guy only had 5 CSs vs. his 34 SBs, and he had 39 2Bs to go with those 12 3Bs and 14 HRs.  He walked a lot: .383 OBP.  And his VORP was solid at 42.4.  Looking at his ratings and track record, I never would've expected him to have such a solid year.

 

Jeff Bullkely, LF, Carolina.  .310/20/83/15.  Also: ranked 7th in OBP (.407) and had a VORP of 41.1.  Carolina finished tied for the Wild Card but got screwed.  Comments: Carolina is pretty good at producing young OFs.

 

Danny Welch, 2B, Atlanta.  .311/17/78/14.  Had an OPS of .888 and a VORP of 33.8.  Atlanta finished tied for 4th (last) in their division.  Comment: a solid rookie season, but given Welch's ratings and the fact that he was the #10 prospect coming into the year, I assume Atlanta wants him to turn it up a notch in 1995.

 

Wilfred Christian, 1B, Kansas City.  .333/30/95, ranking 7th in BA.  Also: 6th in SLG (.593), 8th in OPS (.988), and had a VORP of 38.8.  Kansas City finished 4th.  Comment: Christian posted these numbers in just 118 Games.  Give him a full season and he projects to about 40 HRs and 130 RBIs.

 

Mike Schmidt, SS, Atlanta.  .292/4/43/61, ranking 3rd in SBs.  Also: 1st in 2Bs (49), 8th in 3Bs (6), 9th in Runs (112), and had an OBP of .372 and VORP of 31.4.  Atlanta finished 4th (tied for last).  Comment: a prototypical leadoff hitter, Schmidt could improve a bit defensively (.966 fielding % as a SS).

 

Lonnie Douglas, LF, Las Vegas.  .305/28/115.  Also: had 128 K's, an OPS of .888, and a VORP of 31.0.  Las Vegas finished 3rd in their division.  Comment: One of the few bright spots on the Renegades depressing year.

 

Howard Manley, CL, Portland.  8-8, 2.21, 13 Saves, 82 K's in 89.2 IP, 1.16 WHIP, and a 34.2 VORP.  Portland finished 2nd at 73-89.  Comment: Manley only became a closer late in the year, which explains his low Saves total.  Still, he pitched a lot, as evidenced by the 89.2 IPs.

 

Alfredo Juarez, SP, Miami.  7-7, 4.07, 113 K's in 128.1 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 24.6 VORP.  Ranked 1st in the AL in CGs (4), and 1st in ShOs (3) despite only 19 starts.  Miami won their division.  Comments: Very often-or-on, as shown by his having 3 Shut Outs in 19 starts (a ton) but still only a kind of high 4.07 ERA.  If he becomes consistent, watch out.

 

Kenny Williams, MR, Miami.  5-5, 2.31, 83 K's in 58.1 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 22.4 VORP.  Also: had an astounding 12.81 K/9, which is off the charts; lefties batted just .131 against him, while righties hit .214; could work on walks though, with 29 BBs in 58.1 IP.  Spent roughly the first 3rd of the season in AAA.

 

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

 

Jack McKeon, Miami.  Miami won 98 games this year, a 9 game improvement over 1993.  He had to deal with an assortment of injuries, and had to figure out how to manage youngsters like Alfredo Juarez.  Cutting against McKeon, perhaps, is the fact that Miami did make some big additions this season, including most obviously free agent Ernie Owen.  (Point being: hard to credit McKeon too much if there's another explanation available for the team's improvement.)

 

Jose Machado, Carolina.  Machado is the all-time EWB leader for manager wins (1715) and for manager losses 1867.  That also means he's the all-time leader in games managed.  He's had stints in Memphis (1970-1978), Omaha (1979-1980), Las Vegas (1981-1983), Indianapolis (1984-1985), Atlanta (1986-1989), and now Carolina (1992-1994).  In all his many years, he's taken only 2 teams to the playoffs: the 1982 Las Vegas Renegades (who lost in the ALCS) and the 1987 Atlanta Confederates (who lost in the ALDS).  In light of this track record, Machado and Carolina were something of sentimental favorites coming down the stretch run.  And yet, the league screwed them over on the playoff format.  I suspect this adds to Machado's candidacy as manager of the year.  In terms of on the field performance, Machado's most notable trick was that he got decent production out of a starting staff which on paper looked horrible; I already mentioned this in connection with my post on Carolina's pitching coach.  He managed egos effectively in the bullpen, even though he has 3 proven closers back there who still appear to be in their primes (Lawrence, Wynn, and Lara).  Oh, and Carolina's 86 wins this year are an 18 game improvement over the 68 they won last year.  That's the biggest improvement in the AL.

 

Dave Morgan, Omaha.  After winning a league leading 98 games last year, Morgan managed to get an impressive 9 game improvement this year, pushing the Wolverines all the way up to 107 Victories.  Omaha does well in a range of stats that reflect well on Morgan: they are 12-3 in extra-inning games, 28-9 in 1-run games, and their Pythagorean Differential is +7, highest in the AL.  Anytime a team wins 107 games, their manager immediately becomes one of the frontrunners for manager of the year, even if he did win it last year.  By the way, did you know Morgan is 62?  I didn't.

 

Joe Stewart, Chicago.  Stewart gets credit for an 8 game improvement this year, moving Chicago from 78 Wins in 1993 to 86 in 1994.  And it's impressive that he did it despite the fact that just about everyone thought Chicago would suck bad (e.g., the algorithm thought this), and despite the fact that ace Michael Bowden missed 2 months.  If you look at Stewart's lineup, you'll see about 4 scrubs -- they have a remarkable number of starters with negative VORPs.  Question: Does the fact that Chicago ultimately slided out of the playoffs, after being poised to win the Wild Card most of the year, count against Stewart?

 

Kevin Green, Minneapolis.  First year manager Green had a difficult job replacing last year's manager (don't remember the guy's name) who led the Mutiny to 97 wins in his one and only season.  On the one hand, Green won 9 less games this year despite the free agent addition of Jesus Reyes, so that presumably counts against him.  On the other hand, Minneapolis did mount a furious late season comeback, when most people counted them out.  And that counts for him.

 

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

 

Rob, Miami.  Most notable moves included the free agent signing of Ernie Owen (although Owen wasn't too great in his first season as a Bandito), and the managing of various young pitchers, including Bernard Glass, Kenny Williams, and Alfredo Juarez.  With their young talented staff, Miami looks poised to continue to dominate the Colonial for years to come.

 

Robbie Johnson, Carolina.  Johnson has a very mixed record.  On the plus side, he continues to get credit for the signing of Rafael Valentin, who was a serious MVP contender this year.  Johnson also acquired 3B John Rouse this year from St. Louis in exchange for veteran MR Sean Young, and Rouse looks great: at 28, he went .284/35/89 in time split between the two leagues.  He also traded CF Gavin James away for 3B Jack Saunders, and acquired 2B Teko de Bode from Boston for mediocre MR Lou Murray, and de Bode is ranked among the top 2Bs in the game.  On the negative side, there was the free agent signing of 2B Glenn Hill to a massive 4 year $41M contract, and Hill looks like a disaster, posting a -7 VORP his first season, and making the acquisition of de Bode necessary.  Let's put it this way: Johnson makes lots and lots of moves.  Some work out, some don't.  One more thing: he deserves some credit for sticking with re-tread manager Jose Machado.  I guarantee you people in Carolina were very disapointed at last season's decision to bring Machado back.

 

Matt Egghead, Minneapolis.  Last year's award winner, Egghead again managed to slip his team into the playoffs.  He craftily signed free agent 1B Bill Thomas right before Omaha tried to sign him (the guy is shrewd).  He traded Rich Sawyer to Memphis in exchange for 1B Shawn Martin (actually, that move looks better for Memphis; Martin's struggles led to the signing of Thomas).  He continues to reap the benefits of claiming Richard Goff off waivers from El Paso in 1993: Goff went 15-9 for Minneapolis in 1994.  And most notably, he signed free agent Jose Reyes this offseason, and Reyes produced big time offensively.

 

Ashton Clayton, Chicago.  Chicago made an 8 game improvement, and just got squeezed out of the Wild Card thanks to the play-in game.  This was a surprise: no one excpected the Samurai to compete in 1994.  Trade acquisition Artie Dunlap struggled for Chicago -- in fact, you can blame him for blowing the play-in game vs. Minneapolis -- but that can't be pinned on Clayton, it was the fault of his assistant.  The most notable move Clayton made was to sign FA SP Michael Bowden, who produced decently in his first season in Chicago.

 

Mike, Omaha.  As always, there's lots of moves to consider.  Especially notable pre-season moves: the acquisition of SP Lawrence Jordan and the promotion of 1B Ben Lindsay, who almost hit 50 HRs this season.  Surely, though, the thing that stands out most was the flurry of moves right before the trade deadline, the most notable of which involved sending off Emilio Romano.  I think it's fair to say that no other GM in EWB would've made those trades -- why rock the boat?  And yet, Omaha went 36-17 in August/September -- that is, they actually won a higher percentage of their games after the moves.  Obviously, you can't forget that Omaha won 107 games this year.  And, if not for the screwy voting last year, Mike would own an Executive of the Year Trophy already.  But he doesn't own one.

Ron James

February 9th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Before I start composing the NL ballot, did you know this?

 

Ron James, SS for the Minneapolis Mutiny, suffered a career-ending injury in the 9/28 play-in game vs. Chicago.  James, 25, used to be a big prospect: ranked #33 by Baseball America in 1992.  In his 3 seasons as the Mutiny's starting shortstop, though, his offensive production has been pretty mediocre.  This year, he went .267/4/52/1.

 

For the playoffs, it appears that Minneapolis' plan is to play Brian Whitesides at SS.  During the season, Whitesides split time for the most part between 1B and 3B, posting numbers of .258/24/85.  So he'll be a good offensive shortstop.  Defensively, though, he leaves much to be desired: a 3 rating, and a .950 Fielding Percentage over the season in limited action at Short.  Give credit to Whitesides for stepping it up for his team in their time of need.  Where Minneapolis really will see a drop off is in with Miguel Candelaria, who will be replacing Whitesides at 3B.  On the year, the 30-year-old Candelaria hit .224/7/41 in 400+ ABs, which adds up to a staggering -37.8 VORP.  It's hard to get a negative VORP so high.  On the bright side, Candelaria is a defensive standout, receiving a 10 rating at every IF position.  Makes you wonder: why not play Candelaria at SS and Whitesides at 3B?  Maybe Minneapolis will figure this out on their own.

 

Let's see how Minneapolis handles this time of crisis.  By the way, the injury to James was torn ankle ligaments.

EWB Records set in 1994

February 9th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Runs, 147, set by Roy Payton of Montreal.  Previous record was 136 set by Vincent Carter in 1990.  (Note: Artie Bicknell also surpassed the old record by scoring 141 runs.)

 

2. RBIs, 159, set by Artie Bicknell.  Previous record was 155 set by Jimmy Garrett just last year (1993.)

 

3. Strikeouts by a batter, 172, set by John Pittman of New Orleans.  Previous record was was by Mike "Expert" Farrell, with 169 in 1989 for Minneapolis.  (By the way, this season Pittman was .247/39/129, so very much a free swinging slugger.)

 

4. Games pitched, 87, by Esteban Gonzales of Austin.  Previous record was 85, set by Tony "Fury" Valenzuela just last year (1993) for Dallas.

 

Pancho Urive

February 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

So I was looking at EWB's top 20 players list, and I see that a new batter has cracked the list: 27-year-old Pancho Urive of Boston.  This is notable because Urive is a 1B (with 4-3 ratings), and so I was wondering how Uriver was getting any playingtime with Justin Johnston around.  (By the way, both Johnston and Pedro Velasquez, a former Boston 1B, are on the list as well.  Boston really is a 1B factory.  Any theories on how they're so good at developing this one position?)

 

Back to Uriver, the answer is that manager Sparky Anderson has been playing him a lot at 3B rather than his natural 1B position -- in fact, Urive saw action in 73 games at the hot corner, as compared to just 11 games at 1B playing primarily when Johnston was injured.  Offensively, the move seems reasonable: Urive went .336/15/57 this year in just 277 ABs, and he compiled an impressive .963 OPS.  Defensively, though, he's been an unmitigated disaster.  He has committed 22 errors in his 73 games (just 53 of which were starts, so if you project those numbers to about 150 starts, he's on pace for around 60 errors.)  His fielding percentage is a God-awful .860.  And his defensive rating at 3B is just 1.

 

With respect to the computer's AI, this strikes me as a pretty interesting move.  On the one hand, I can understand their felt need to get Urive into the game.  I think it's interesting that they would say fuck it to defensive constraints, and try to make it work at 3B.  I could see a human being trying this.  If I had some great offensive threat at 1B behind Reinert, and couldn't play him at DH, I would probably try to experiment with him playing some other position.  Surprising that the computer would do this though.

 

By the way, on their official lineup as it's set up for playoffs, Urive is no longer at 3B.  Instead, rookie Jason Weaver (a middling hitter but solid defender) is in the spot.

Quick Notes

February 8th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. I'm going to wait to do the Awards Ballots until the regular season is officially over.  (Play-in games count as regular season.)  The main reason to do this is that, until the regular season is over, you don't get the official leaderboard entries at the bottom of a player's page.  So for instance, if you click right now on Artie Bicknell and scroll to the bottom of his page, you can see where he ranked on various 1993 leaderboards, but not where he ranked in 1994.

 

2. Did you see the final game of the season between Chicago and Atlanta?  Here's the context.  Chicago came into the day tied with Carolina for the Wild Card, with Minneapolis 1 GB. During the day, Minneapolis wins their game 5-3 over Omaha, while Carolina gets killed in their game.  Upshot: if Chicago wins, their in the playoffs, no play-in game necessary.  Then they get 2 more in the 8th thanks to a Steve Hayes HR, to make it 6-4.  That's the score when the top of the 9th starts.  I can't fully tell what happens in the 9th, b/c the game log is unavailable, but I do know that veteran Martin Diaz (former Memphis star, and 1987 AL MVP) hits a crucial 2 out 1-run scoring triple for the Samurai, and Chicago scores 2 runs in the inning to tie the game up at 6.  (By the way, closer Ned Gordon wasn't in the game for Atlanta, because he had been used as a starter by the Confederates for the 1st game of the series against Chicago.  This was the 1st game Gordon had started in months, and only the 3rd start he made all year long.  Somehow or other, Atlanta manager Carlos Vasquez decided that in this huge, end of the season series vs. Chicago, with playoff implications on the line, he wanted to use Gordon as a starter.  At any rate, Atlanta won the game Gordon started, so maybe it was a good move.)

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Atlanta fails to score in the bottom of the 9th, so we're heading to extra innings.  In the top of the 12th, Chicago scores 1 run, and so as they head to the bottom of the inning they are just 3 outs away from clinching a playoff spot.  In the bottom of the 12th, Atlanta gets 2 runners on for C George McFarland, the former Admiral and current Atlanta backup.  (McFarland is only in the bame because Atlanta had previously pinch hit for their starting catcher.)  With 2 outs, McFarland hits a 2-run double, giving Atlanta the victory and dashing Chicago's playoff hopes, at least for the moment.

 

3. As far as the play-in format, I guess I'm okay to just see what the computer has set up and live with the consequences.  For what it's worth, here are the three teams head-to-head records...

 

Carolina (7) vs. Chicago (5)

Carolina (5) vs. Minneapolis (10)

Chicago (5) vs. Minneapolis (7)

 

So cumulative, Carolina was 12-15; Chicago was 10-14; and Minneapolis was 17-10.  Carolina's record is not as good as Minneapolis's, but better than Chicago, both with respect to winning percentage, games back, and also with respect to heads-up.  So I'm going to assume Carolina isn't officially eliminated at this point, at least if whatever tiebreaker there is happens to be based on head-to-head record.

 

4. Speaking of head-to-head record, things are looking pretty bleak for the Admirals heading into the playoffs...

 

Washington (5) vs. Omaha (10)

Washington (5) vs. Miami (7)

Washington (5) vs. Chicago (7)

Washington (4) vs. Minneapolis (8)

Washington (7) vs. Carolina (5)

 

So, the only possible playoff team we have a winning record against is Carolina, and against them it's just barely winning.  For what it's worth, here are the other human teams record vs. the possible playoff teams (excluding Washington, which was just listed)

 

Omaha (11) vs. Chicago (1)

Omaha (8) vs. Miami (4)

Omaha (9) vs. Minneapolis (6)

Omaha (8) vs. Carolina (4)

 

Miami (7) vs. Carolina (5)

Miami (8) vs. Minneapolis (4)

Miami (7) vs. Chicago (5)

 

So, Omaha was a winning record against everyone, and really pretty much a dominating winning record against everyone.  Miami has a winning record against everyone except Omaha.  So, the ALCS everyone will expect is Omaha vs. Miami.  And, in addition, given their extremely high regular season win total, and their great record against all these playoff teams, it's fair to say that Omaha has to be regarded as the heavy favorites for the AL playoffs this year, as well as the World Series.

 

As for Washington, I'll readily concede that we go into the playoffs this year with much less confidence than we've ever had at this point of year.  As a reflection of this point, consider that we have no real idea who our Game 3 and Game 4 starters will be for the first round of the playoffs, or even which SPs will be left on our playoff roster.  There's a chance that rookie Matthew Spencer could be our Game 3 starter, and there's a chance he could be left off the team completely.   Washington has the worst record of any division winner this year, and we've clearly fallen behind Omaha (in fact, 19 GB from Omaha) and Miami (10 GB).  Obviously, we'll give it our best, and the baseball playoffs are enough of a crapshoot that you never know how things will unfold.  But again, we aren't feeling very confident at all.

Montreal

February 7th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Rob has pointed to the Knights before, but I really do want to say that they look like a phenomenal young team.  I have a hard time understanding how they are only barely above .500 this year -- you look at their individual stats, and you feel like they should be a .600 team, or so.  But at any rate, they look like a possible dynasty in the making.

 

Both Albert Perez and Tommy Brown are going to hit around 45 HR's this year with somewhere near 150 RBIs.  In the entire history of EWB, I doubt there's ever been 2 teammates to reach these totals.  Then there's Roy Payton, who's going to be around .300/43/120 this year, just barely a notch below.  And then 3B Leonard Lynch, who will be around .300/38/100.  There is no team in baseball who is even close to matching 4 power/average hitters producing at that level -- not Washington, not Omaha, not anyone.

 

As far as supporting cast, you then have Porter Scott, who still managed a .400 OBP this year despite getting older (also about .280/15/55).  The other position players are decent enough not to weight the offense down.

 

Among their SPs, Desmond MacGilip has returned to Gibson-contention after signing with Montreal; right now, his contract is looking like a steal.  Chris "Peach Tree" Dunham has had his struggles this year -- 5.86 ERA -- but the guy is an 11 pt. pitcher at age 23, and was ranked among the top SP prospect in all of baseball prior to the season.  The rest of their rotation right now is filled out with 30-year-old 8 pt. pitchers, so there's room for upgrade.  But down in AAA, they have David Standard, a potential 11 pt. pitcher who is already 10 actual, and has been pretty dominant this season, striking out 257 in 220 IPs.  I actually think the Knights can be criticized for not bringing up Standard this season for their pennant run, but at any rate Standard is a lock to be in the rotation next year.  Assuming he can move up from his 10 pt. actual to his 11 pt. potential, the Knights then figure to have 3 different 11 pt. pitchers in their rotation next season.  I'm pretty sure that no other EWB team can say the same.

 

One more thing.  The Knights still have 2B prospect Danny "Sunshine" Beasley in their system, and he's still looking pretty good -- 5-4 contact-power potential, and he's put up some pretty good stats this year in A ball.  It's probably unrealistic to think that Beasley will see EWB action next year (he's still just 20), but he's on pace to become a big time contributor in 1996 or 1997.

 

The one potential problem for the organization is their tight budget.  They are overbudget this season, and next season they already have more salary commitments than they do this year, without adding any free agents or anything.  This is largely because of the expensive Scott and MacGilip signings last year.  In retrospect, the Scott signing was probably a mistake.  Scott is still a contributor, and because they shelled out the Knights were able to get The Swan for hit #3000, but $11M is a lot per season.  They could've kept that money and then invested it this offseason in pitching -- especially bullpen.  Still, the Knights look poised to go on a serious run in the Colonial Division over the next few years.

Re: 1994 Algorithm Prediction

February 7th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Looking back, the algorithm again had a decent year.

 

Start with the Sunbelt.  It rightly saw that Miami would run away with things (in fact, it saw that they would be the 2nd best team in baseball).  It has Carolina #2, which was right as well.  It underestimated Memphis and overestimated Atlanta, but it basically got things right.

 

The Plains.  The Algorithm both saw that this would be the strongest AL division, and that nevertheless Omaha would run away with it.  One thing it did get wrong was Chicago -- it didn't really see how good they would be.

 

In the Mountain West, the algorithm saw both that Washington would be a notch below the team they had been in the past, but that nevertheless they would run away with the division. It saw that this division was going to be truly awful, and that LA had the worst team in baseball.

 

The Colonial Division is probably the one the algorithm got most wrong.  It thought Boston would finish 3rd, although I should note that it thought this was a close 3rd.  The team it really fucked up, though, was Philadelphia.  The algorithm thought the Quakers would repeat their division title of 1993; instead, they've been last.  Philly has had a lot of tough injuries this year, but even so the algorithm overrated them.

 

In the Ohio Valley, the algorithm saw that St. Louis and Pittsburgh would be good (although it overrated Pittsburgh a bit), and that Indianapolis, Detroit, and Cincinnati would be bad.  It gets special credit for Cincinnati -- I tried to explain in my notes why I thought the algorithm might be underrating the Rebels, but it turns out I was wrong and the algorithm was right.  The one team it missed badly on is Cleveland.  I've noted this before, but I'll repeat it here: the one thing the algorithm is worst at predicting is how a good young team will do.  Because good young players don't have solid stat lines from previous years, their positional rankings are a little low, which is why the algorithm screws them up.

 

Finally, the Texas.  The algorithm way overrated Austin -- it loved the Marshalls, and didn't see their 4th place finish coming at all.  To be fair, looking over the Marshalls as their assistant GM, I think they have a hell of a team myself.  I know they had a horrible 1994, but I think that without any signifcant changes at all, they could be contenders again in 1995.  The algorithm did rightly see that Houston was good, pegging them 2nd.  The other team it missed was San Antonio.  Hard to blame it for this, in a sense, but still the algorithm pegged the Aztecas as among the worst 10 teams in all of EWB, instead of playoff contenders.

 

On the whole, I think it was a so-so year. 

The algorithm has been tweaked a bit this year.  In the past, I don't think it valued pitching highly enough.  So, this year, I've adjusted the values just a little bit, and the predictions are slightly different than what the old algorithm would've said.  If the predictions turn out more accurate, I'll stick with this adjusted algorithm in the future; if not, I'll return to the old version.

 

AL SUNBELT

1. Miami

2. Carolina

3. Atlanta

4. New Orleans

5. Memphis

 

AL PLAINS

1. Omaha

2. Minneapolis*

3. Denver

4. Kansas City

5. Chicago

* = Wild Card winner

 

AL MOUNTAIN WEST

1. Washington

2. Las Vegas

3. Portland

4. Los Angeles

 

NL COLONIAL

1. Philadelphia

2. New York

3. Boston

4. Montreal

5. Washington D. C.

 

NL OHIO VALLEY

1. St. Louis

2. Pittsburgh*

3. Cincinnati

4. Cleveland

5. Indianapolis

6. Detroit

 

NL TEXAS

1. Austin

2. Houston

3. El Paso

4. San Antonio

5. Dallas

 

ALDS: Miami over Minneapolis, 4-1; Omaha over Washington, 4-1

NLDS: St. Louis over Philadelphia, 4-2; Pittsburgh over Austin, 4-3

ALCS: Omaha over Miami, 4-2

NLCS: St. Louis over Pittsburgh, 4-3

World Series: Omaha over St. Louis, 4-2

 

POWER RANKING: The Top 10 (New Feature!!!)

1. Omaha

2. Miami

3. St. Louis

4. Pittsburgh

5. Austin

6. Philadelphia

7. New York

8. Denver

9. Kansas City

10. Houston

(note: Washington didn't crack the top 10, but if Jose Garcia was healthy, they would rank roughly 5th, competing with Austin)

 

WEAKNESS RANKING: The Bottom 10 (New Feature!!!)

21. Las Vegas

22. Washington D.C.

23. New Orleans

24. Portland

25. San Antonio

26. Dallas

27. Memphis

28. Indianpolis

29. Detroit

30. Los Angeles

 

NOTES

 

1. The three division races in the AL are projected to be run aways.  Miami should win their division by, like, 17 games or so.  Omaha should win their division by like 7 or 8.  And Washington should win their division by about 20.  The Wild Card race is close though, with Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Denver all neck-and-neck (you'll notice, all those teams are from the Plains Division).

 

2. The Mountain West division is absolutely horrible, with the exception of Washington.  Each of the 3 other teams in the division is in the Bottom 10 of the entire EWB, with Los Angeles projecting dead last.  This continues an unbelievable drop for the Gargoyles, who were projected by the algorithm to be an unbelievably good team back in 1992 (again, the 1992 team was the strongest team ever, according to the algorithm).

 

3. The Sunbelt gives the Mountain West a run for its money as far as most lopsided division in baseball, but loses out because Carolina and Atlanta are both a slight notch above anyone the Mountain West has to offer to compete with Washington.

 

4. The Plains Division is the toughest in baseball, but Omaha is still good enough that they loom over everyone else by a wide margin.  The Plains Division pitching staffs are unreal: Omaha has Jackson, Romano, Punk Perez, and various others; Minneapolis has Steven Ferguson, Nate Jackson, Stu MacNiter; Denver has a very underrated staff (5th best starters, 1st best relievers, 4th best closer) led by Mark Smith and Cris Rosario; Kansas City has Bartolo Barrios and Joe Murphy (they rank 7-8-1 in starters-relievers-closer); and even last place Chicago has a top 3 of Michael Bowden, Carlos Pena, and Shawn Price.  You won't find better pitching anywhere else.

 

5. To further the point about the strength of the plains, consider this.  If you exclude Miami and Washington, every single Plains Division team is ranked higher that every other AL team.  Or in other words, suppose you take Chicago, the worst team in the Plains.  Chicago is projected to be better than every Sunbelt team besides Miami, and to be better than every Mountain West team besides Washington.  So Mike is the only one who looks to have competition this year.  On the other hand, Omaha is so loaded that it shouldn't matter, they should still win going away.

 

6. After the Plains division, probably the best division top-to-bottom is the NL Colonial.  Philadelphia and New York are neck-and neck once again, while Boston and Montreal are both solid teams. (D.C. is not.)  Montreal might be especially a team to watch, as the algorithm has a history of underrating youthful teams.  (E.g., Tommy Brown is ranked as only the 25th best LF in EWB, and this is all the algorithm knows about him.  But surely, at the end of the year, Brown will be much more highly ranked that this.)

 

7. No team made bigger strides this offseason than Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh already had a solid pitching staff, led by ace Tom Campbell and closer Jesus Villaneuva.  But this offseason, they added powerful 1B Pedro Velasquez, in one of the biggest rip off computer trades in a long time, and they also signed free agent SS Norman Hopkins for just $730K!  What's especially remarkable about the deal is that Hopkins is coming off a 3-year contract with Austin where he was making more than $9M a year.  Hopkins still has recent contact-power ratings of 4-3, and last year at age 30 (not over the hill) he .280/15/52, which isn't horrible.  But his bad, bad eye kept his salary down: he has a 1 eye rating and an OBP of just .288 (compared to his .280 BA).  I feel like this is an excellent bargain deal for a small market team like Pittsburgh -- I envy their ability to sign Hopkins for so low.  I regard GM Wayne Gordon as an early candidate for NL Executive of the Year.

 

8. Don't count out Cincinnati even though the algorithm has them 3rd.  I'm starting to suspect that another flaw with the algorithm is that it ranks pitching excellence too highly over pitching depth.  What I mean is this.  Imagine two pitching staffs: the first has two excellent starters (like Jackson and Romano) together with 3 dreadful pitchers to fill out the rotaiton, while the second staff has 5 consistently above average pitchers but without any studs.  The first staff has what I'm calling "excellence," the second has "depth."  Anyway, Cincinnati doesn't really have any stud pitchers, but they do have solid depth: 1992 Angel Rosa winner Scott Laws is projected as their 5th starter.  So, maybe they can compete.

 

9. In Austin, the algorithm loves the signing of Francisco Neri to play 2B, while David Waters and Jim Spencer continue to progress in the OF to give Austin the top ranked OF in the NL, with the exception of bitter rival El Paso.

 

10. A team to really keep an eye on this year is Houston, who are projected to finish 2nd.  You'll remember that the Black Gold were contending for 1st in the division last year prior to the loss of ace Scott Riley due to injury.  If Houston can get even average starting pitching, they figure to be serious contenders.

 

11. The NL has won the last 4 World Series.  NL dominance might coninue, as 5 of the top 7 teams in all of EWB come from the league.  On the other hand, the top two teams are from the AL: Omaha and Miami.

 

12. Overall, I'd say that the predictions are kind of boring this year.  In the AL, the algorithm is predicting the exact same playoff results we saw last year: Washington, Omaha, and Miami, with Minneapolis in the Wild Card.  In the NL, the algorithm likes Austin and Philadelphia to repeat for division titles, while St. Louis is hardly a surprise pick for the other division.  The only truly interesting playoff selection is Pittsburgh for the Wild Card.

Ralph Small

February 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

I think it's fair to say that we don't focus on other team's coaches (as opposed to their managers) hardly at all.  And that's reasonable.  But one coach who has really stood out this year is Ralph Small, pitching coach for the Carolina Colonials.

 

If you look at the positional rankings, you'll see Carolina has the 29th (2nd to last) best rated SPs.  And that's about exactly right.  Their ace is 25-year-old Ricardo Huertas, a 3-3-2 pitcher who posted a 5.28 in his rookie season of 1993.  This guy is a marginal AAA ace, at best.  Their 2nd starter most of the year was 38-year-old Jamie Rees, who is down to a 9 pt. pitcher (1-4-4) and who posted a 5.11 ERA last season.  3rd starter Ty Moore is 9 pts. (3-3-3), and has really lost the strikeout capacity he had early in his career (in 1990, Moore struck out 242 in 228 IP for Washington; this year, he has just 107 K's in 174 IP).  4th starter is 43-year-old Sherman Jarvis, again an 8 pt. pitcher (1-3-4) who's been in EWB since way back in 1974.  He won the Gibson Award way back in 1977, but hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 1980s.  And then you have 5th starter Brian Johnston, a 40-year-old washed-up has-been (or more like never-was), who's down to a 7 pt. pitcher.  That's your group: 3 guys close to their 40s who look every bit their age (Rees, Jarvis, and Johnston), a young but fairly washed up Ty Moore, and a complete nobody in Huertas.  And yet, that group has posted the 5th best starters' ERA in the AL.  Moreoever, the entire Carolina staff has combined to put up the 2nd best team ERA in the entire league at 4.15.  I haven't focused as much on their bullpen, just because they're bullpen really is talented (unlike their starting staff).  But even there Small deserves credit -- a number of their bullpen pitchers are pitching up to their potential in ways they hadn't in recent years (e.g., Mike Wynn).

 

Anyway, Small has really stood out as a coach this year.  And here's something interesting about him.  Based on the information available on the web, Small's contract is set to expire after this season.  And, although he's been serving as a pitching coach (and has a 20 Rating for teach pitching), his natural position is actually manager.  His ratings make him a pretty good ML managerial candidate: 19 (rookie) 13 (veteran) 16 (handle players) 20 (hitting) 20 (pitching) 11 (fielding).  Maybe especially for a young team, given that 19/13 rookie/veteran split.  Anyway, I wonder if there's any chance the 49-year-old Small will get a chance at a manager's job, either this offseason or sometime in the future.  I can at least say that he's certainly been picked up by the Washington Admiral radar, perhaps for sometime down the line.

Alfredo Juarez

February 6th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Alfredo Juarez now has 3 of the top 14 ranked pitching performances of the entire year, #2, #6, and #14 (strangely, his no hitter comes in at only #6).