Earl Weaver Baseball League

Rock 'n Roll is dead

February 5th, 2009 by Wolverines GM

Bad news for Cleveland as Earl Armstrong is lost for 7 months due to a torn back muscle. Cleveland was leading the Ohio Valley division by a game. Armstrong was 14-7, 3.05 ERA. That's a big blow for the Rockers as this was the first year since the Rockers won the division in 1988 that they could have won the division. The only year the Rockers have EVER won the Ohio Valley was in 1988. The Rockers are by no means out of it, but this makes things very tough.

Impact of AL Wildcard

February 5th, 2009 by Banditos GM

By Carolina taking over Chicago in the Wildcard, it changes the playoffs, quite dramatically.  If Chicago makes it then Omaha will host Washington and Miami will host Chicago.  Miami prefers this scenario.

If Carolina wins the Wildcard then Omaha hosts Carolina and Miami will host Washington.  We don't prefer this, but I will say that I think Carolina has a better chance of knocking Omaha off than Chicago does.  Actually, the Carolina at Omaha series might be intriguing and definitely will be a offensive explosion at Sears Field.

Montreal

February 5th, 2009 by Banditos GM

Montreal is starting to make a push.  They are 5 games behind Boston in the Colonial Division.  Their offense is unbelievable, they lead the league in HR's and they have a murderers row that puts El Paso's to shame,  Payton, Perez and Brown.  Throw in Porter Scott at the top of the lineup and Leonard Lynch at the 6th spot and this team is incredibly dangerous.  Should be interesting to watch.

Unfortunately this September doesn't have the excitement of years past with most races already decided.  The AL wildcard is definitely still in play but other than that it would take a lot for a team to overcome their spot now.

Today's Trivia

February 4th, 2009 by Admirals GM

?: Who was the last team in EWB to finish the regular season with the single best record in all of EWB, and then go on to win the World Series?

 

 

 

 

A: The 1983 Washington D.C. Diplomats.  (Note: the 1990 Dallas Brahmas were tied for best EWB record in 1990, and won the World Series.)

 

 

Also: Since his trade, Gerald Latham has taken on a real sourface.  That didn't use to be true of him.

Re: A Few Notes

February 4th, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. I'm a little worried about our age, but only really at SP.  Our offensive starters are: C Leo Kennedy (age 25); 1B Dale Reinert (26); Brandon Kent (27); 3B Patrick Cole (26) with Karl Fox (24) and Henry MacPherson (23) figuring in our plans as well, and Fox still looking solid; at SS there's Jose Garcia (23); in LF there's Jose Rivera (21); CF has Artie Bicknell (27, but he was a late rookie and so still isn't arbitration eligible).  The only starters we have over 27 are RF Mark Jackson who's only 31 and putting up his best VORP season since 1991, and DH Mike Robinson who's 33, and is going about as strong as ever -- he's 2nd in the AL in VORP behind just Bicknell, and would presumably be the computer's MVP vote if Bicknell weren't playing.  We don't have a lot of big prospects in the system, but that's in no small part because we've just churned out a bunch of young players, including Kennedy, Reinert, Fox, and Garcia, each of whom is about All Star caliber (or has already made an All Star team).  Plus, our offense is ranked #1 in the entire EWB, even though we've been missing two crucial starters for most of the year (Freitas, Fox).  So it's hard to worry about our offense for the foreseeable future.  But I take it that offense wasn't really what you had in mind anyway.  Probably what Mike and you were thinking about was pitching.

 

Our bullpen has been better this year (4th in the AL at 3.80), but we'd still like to see improvement.  Thankfully, just about everyone we have is young and so figures to improve.  There's Reynaldo Muniz (23-year-old rookie), Pablor Vargas (24-year-old rookie), Roberto Hernandez (24-year-old rookie), Russell Ramsey (still just 23), Luis Musquez (25), and closer Cory Davidson (25).  That's about as young a bullpen as you'll see. (I am leaving out R.J. Jacob's who's 34, but on the 60 day DL.)  And again, based on group ERA, they're above average.  We would like to upgrade at closer -- we think Davidson is a great setup man, but only an average closer.  What we aren't sure about is whether we should add a veteran closer, or just wait for one of our various young prospects to blossom -- reliever is probably our organization's strongest suit as far as prospects go.  We have 17-year-old Bennie Tyler in AA and already ranked "ready for AAA" (he has 4-4-5 potential), 18-year-old Dave Warren in A and ranked "ready for AA" (he's 4-4-4); and 19-year-old Alfredo Gallardo also in AA, but we're leaning toward making him a starter right now.  At any rate, while I have some concerns about my relief corps for the upcoming playoffs -- I wish we had our own Punk Perez -- I'm not especially worried long-term, just because we have so much youth and potential there.  Our question is this: is hoping for Tyler (e.g.) to make the majors by 1996 pushing him too fast?  Is there even an outside chance he might be ready for 1995?

 

The only place I do worry though -- and I assume that this is what you and Mike really had in mind -- is starters.  Our starters' ERA this season is 5.03, only 8th in the AL.  And we don't really have any young starters.  One option would be to trade away a bit of our offense this offseason, our some of our relief depth, to try to acquire some young starters.  I think we probably have enough depth that we can do this, but we'll see.  At any rate, if the worry is just focused on starters, then I think you may have a point.

 

2. Another thing we'll have to consider as we go into the offseason is this: to what extent have we simply been unlucky this year?  If it's just bad luck, then it doesn't make sense to make wholesale changes.  But, if it isn't luck, then changes might be called for.  Here are some reasons to think we're unlucky: our Pyt. Difference this year is -4, 2nd worst in the AL (worst is L.A.).  Our record in 1-run games is 17-24, again among the worst.  And our record in extra-inning games is 2-8.  These are the totals that sabermetric-folks often look at to predict whether a team can turn things around next year.  The idea is that 1-run games, extra-inning games, and Pyt differential are really just matters of luck, and so if a team fares badly one year, there's no special reason to think they'll do badly the next year.  I'm not fully convinced that's right -- maybe certain teams just have a kind of will to win, that allows them to win a surprisingly high number of extra inning games -- but I'm not fully convinced it's wrong either, and the sabermetric people have some really accurate predictions using their system (e.g., they saw Tampa Bay had a surprisingly bad Pyt Record in 2007, leading them to predict that they'd be much better in 2008).  Anyway, if you look at Pyt Record instead of real record, then we're only 6 games behind Omaha instead of 16 games behind.  (Omaha is either especially "lucky" this year or they have special talents in pulling out close games: they're 11-2 in extra-inning games, and 26-8 in 1-run games.)  Anyway, I don't have any firm convictions yet one way or the other, but it's something I'll have to figure out before I make whatever moves I'm going to make.

 

3. Final thought.  One thing I sometimes wonder in our interactions with Rob is how differently he views things because he sees the players' stars while we don't.  Take for example Leo Kennedy.  I was always high on Kennedy as a prospect, because he had 3-4 ratings which are hard to find in a catcher.  I thought this clearly made him a projected major league starter.  But Rob said he was always surprised by how highly I rated him.  And, my impression was, this was because Kennedy always had low stars.  But now he's in the majors, and Kennedy is producing exactly like you'd expect a 3-4 batter to perform: he'll hit about 30 HR's this year with 105 RBIs or so.

 

Anyway, here's a theory, and I'm not sure if it's right.  Sometimes, it seems to me, the stars let you see a player with potential, when otherwise it's not obvious.  For instance, if there's one 3-3 LFer who has 4 star potential, and another 3-3 LFer who has 1.5 star potential, well then presumably the first one is better in ways not reflected by their (coarse-grained) numerical ratings.  But on the other hand, I wonder if sometimes the Star Ratings are distorting.  For instance, when I did my first year player draft for my 1985 league, one thing that was really strange was that Dale Sveum was ranked among the top players in the entire draft with respect to stars.  He was ahead of Bonds, Palmeiro, etc.  But when the teams got to drafting, no one picked Sveum.  They took Bonds 1st, McGwire 2nd, Maddux 3rd, etc., and Sveum fell to the middle of the 2nd round.  Anyway, it made me wonder whether I've been screwing up my own EWB drafts by putting such stock in the stars system.  Have I passed over a Bonds or McGwire to select a Sveum?

 

Just a thought.

A Few Notes

February 4th, 2009 by Banditos GM

1) Mike and I had a long fruitful discussion about EWB last night.  He's very concerned about the future of the Admirals.  He stated that they have no prospects and their team is getting frightfully older.  Players like Jackson, Robinson, Garcia, MacGregor etc., etc.  are just not what they used to be.  I had to concur.  I'm not sure why he couldn't write the email himself but he wanted me to ask you about this problem and your future plans.

2)  Min-chul Pak was signed on 7/3 to an EWB contract with the St. Louis Savages.  Pak is 3rd string UIF and is glad to be reunited with Oliver Cole and Spike Escobido.  Together they are forming the fringes of what looks to be a playoff bound Savage team.

3)  The acquisition of Wilson Rocha by Miami has really worked out well in the sense that it has pushed Jeff Hicks to develop.  Hicks was in serious danger of permanently losing his job and any hope of a future with Miami.  However, his monthly AVG/OPS

APR .183/.544
MAY  .161/.390

JUN  .296/.898
JUL  .293/.871
AUG  .275/.833

4)  I was surprised that there was no BJ Keller call up.  In my opinion it's either now or never for Keller, he's really losing any trade appeal as well.  I see his Contact potential is at a mere 2.  Keller was a 2nd round draft pick and highly regarded by the Admiral Organization....I think.

Omaha Moves

February 3rd, 2009 by Wolverines GM

Put Lawrence Jordan on the 15 day DL and bring up Larry George to start in Jordan's spot

 

On another note did anyone notice that in my last game MR Nick Hess, with 3 fatigue, started in Jordan's spot and pitched 7 innings throwing 90 pitches and only giving up 1 earned run and winning the game 6-2. Dave Morgan is a genius, and that's pretty bad on my part as we were going into a game a SP short and I called no one up. The papers in Omaha and throughout baseball were ridiculing me. The Omaha World Herald had a picture of me doctored wearing the Where's Waldo clothes and the front of the Sports page read "Where's MikeG."    Very funny.

Re: Managers and Coaches

February 3rd, 2009 by Admirals GM

Sergio Hernandez (HC) of AA Trenton: LET HIM GO.  He's old, and the Captains had a pretty bad offense this year.

 

Terry Byers (PC) of A Ralston: KEEP HIM.  Offer him 2 year @ $95K.  If he declines, then give him what he's asking, which is 1 year @ $95K.  Somehow or other, Ralston has become the jewel of our minor league system.  And the pitching has been sensational under Byers.

 

Dan McCray (HC) of R Quebradillas: LET HIM GO.  The offense for Quebradillas has been awful.

 

Victor Maldonado (MA) of High Desert: KEEP HIM.  (2 Years @ $295K, which is his request.)  High Desert hasn't won as much as we would like, but we're pretty happy with their record of player development.  Maldonado has good enough ratings that he's a serious candidate for a ML job at some point in his career.  In fact, the reason we're keeping him is that we can envision him possibly becoming our ML bench coach or hitting coach over the next 2 seasons, depending on how retirements/etc. go.  We make Maldonado the following promise: if he doesn't have a ML job with us by the time his new contract expires, we'll let him go to allow him to pursue his big league dreams with some other team.

 

Robert Hamilton of Quebradillas is safe.  After a horrible 1-16 start, the team has been playing better.

Lawrence "Larry" Jordan

February 3rd, 2009 by Banditos GM

....is out 7 weeks.  Wow.  Who'll replace him?  My guess would be it's between Thomas Merritt and Bob Cote.

Merritt came to Omaha along with Shannon Townsend in 1991.  He's essentially been a career minor leaguer, although he played all of 1991 in EWB.  He did well in Montreal but blew up in Omaha.  He got another chance in 1992 in Omaha but did horribly.  Since then the 29 year old has spent 1993 and 1994 in Lincoln helping them win the 1993 PCL Championship and leading them in 1994.  Merritt is Lincoln's Ace.

Bob Cote is only 22 years old and is considered a low to mid level prospect.  He was drafted in the 4th round of the 1991 Draft and has pitched extremely well in the minors at every level.  Cote is 432/333, .5/.5 star.  He just recently made the move to AAA and is currently 3-1 2.86 ERA.  Cote is a pitcher to keep your eye out for, but is he really ready?  After all he's only pitched in 8 games in AAA ever.

Cooper Fowler's poor, poor performance in Omaha earlier in the year eliminates him from discussion.  The same with Larry George.  The only other candidate is the 27 year old Frank Long.  Although a dark horse, don't count Long out.  His 323/323 and 9 Endurance might be just the pitcher the Wolverines need.  With their offense they probably just want somebody to eat some innings and if Long can just stay below 5.50 ERA or thereabouts Omaha would probably be happy.

Notes 1994

February 3rd, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. Whit Gaul has been released by New Orleans.  Is it the end of the line for him?

 

2. Justin Johnston had to go to the 15 day DL for Boston.  That's big, considering that the Irish are in the middle of a pennant race.  Also, it harms Johnston's MVP chances.

 

3. Guess which team leads the AL in SBs?  It's Chicago, by a wide margin.  That seems surprising to me, given what an old team they are.  But LF Bob Cole has 50 SBs, and 2B Darryl Riddle has 40.  If Chicago gets to the playoffs (a big if at this point), that's something to consider: how good is your catcher at nailing baserunners?

 

4. Michael Suggitt of Las Vegas is making a strong run at Roy Covington's claim to worst season by a SP ever.  You'll recall that in 1983, Covington lost 26 games with the Miami Banditos while posting a 5.57 ERA.  Well, right now Suggitt is 2-14 -- bad, but he's not going to get to 26.  However, where Suggitt's stat line really gets amazing is his ERA.  Through 22 Starts, and 92 IP, Suggitt is posting a smooth 11.84 ERA.  Yes, 11.84.  His WHIP is an astonishing 2.49.  His VORP is -50.5 -- I don't ever remember seeing a player of any position having such a huge negative VORP.  His quality start percentage is 9% (2 QS in 22 starts), his opponents' BA is around .380, his opponents OPS is around 1.100.  Just to give you some perspective: Artie Bicknell's OPS is just about 1.100.  And so, the average batter against Suggitt is the equivalent of Bicknell.  And yet, the Renegades keep trotting the guy out there.  Think about this.  With their recent winning streak (9 games), Las Vegas is now just 7 games behind Washington for the division lead.  If instead of Suggitt at 2-14, you had some totally mediocre AAA-caliber starter who was 9-7, Las Vegas would be tied right now with Washington.  Yet another reason that the Renegades' personnel probably needs to be cleared out after the year: time to let manager Don Montgomery and GM Brody Harvey leave.

 

5. With the recent acquisition of Teko de Bode, Glenn Hill is no longer starting for Carolina.  Well, here's the thing.  You might recall that Hill was a free agent this past offseason, coming off several solid seasons with Portland.  I grant Carolina that Hill looked like a decent player: he had VORPs of 34, 37, and 41 the last three years.  But he was never anywhere near a superstar.  His best year probably was 1993, when he went .284/11/65/13.  Still, Carolina handed him a mammoth contract: $10.5M per year for 4 years (thru 1997).  And now, within the 1st year, they're watching him backup de Bode, a guy who signed for the league minimum in April of this year, after the season had already started.  Hill is giving Randall Helmick in Las Vegas some decent competition for worst recent contract.  The thing is, these contracts looked pretty bad at the second they were signed.  I might have been interested in Helmick this offseason, if he would've been willing to go for 3 years @ $5.5M or so.  But when he requested 7 years at $11M per, and got it, that was insane.  I blame teams like Las Vegas and Carolina for inflating the free agent market.  As a cost-conscious GM myself, I want to bully them into playing more hardball.

 

6. Enrique Alvarez, LF of Memphis, is looking like a really intriguing FA option this offseason.  Right now he's at .296/18/73/60 (leading the league in SBs), and has an OBP of 31.8.  Plus, I suspect that his talent set will make him a relative deal.

 

7. Alfredo Juarez is presently tied for the AL lead in CGs.  Even though he just joined the majors not that long ago.

 

8. Carlos Valencia of Cleveland is presently leading the NL in Wins at 15.  That's pretty unlikely.  Valencia, 38, has been in the majors since 1979, but has been a pretty mediocre player throughout his career -- regularly recording like 9 or 10 wins a year, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, etc.  Prior to this season, his best year (as measured by VORP) was 1988 when he went 11-6 and 3.81 for Atlanta.

Will Lund

February 3rd, 2009 by Admirals GM

Both of the last two years, Will Lund has managed to sign a contract with a major league team, preventing him from retiring.  (If you sit out the entire year without getting a contract, you retire on January 1st of the next year.)

 

But look how little he's played: 4 games, 3 ABs in 1993; 2 games, 1 AB in 1994.  And it's not like he's been seeing minor league action instead -- Lund hasn't played a mL game since 1991, before he became an Admiral.  He's sitting on ML rosters, he just isn't playing a bit.

Team Offensive Records

February 3rd, 2009 by Banditos GM

Team Records in Jeopardy this year.

Washington:

Batting AVG- Artie Bicknell is currently hovering 2 points above Sherwood Johnston's 1981 .346.  My guess is he won't break it.  Mike Robinson at .337 should also place himself in the top 10.

OBP,SLG, OPS-  Both Bicknell and Robinson look to finish top 10 in OBP.  Bicknell is poised to break last year's SLG record by quite a bit, .675 to .650.  Prior to Bicknell in 1993, Sherwood Johnston held the top 3 spots.  In OPS Bicknell looks like he'll crush Sherwood Johnston's 1981 OPS of 1.062.  Bicknell currently has an OPS of 1.105.  He almost broke the record last year.  It's somewhat amazing to ol' time Admiral Fans but Sherwood Johnston is slowly being dislodged from many of the records in Admiral History.  It was, of course, a different game in his time but Johnston and his legions still feel the sting.

VORP- Bicknell is once again threatening Johnston's top 2 spots, 109.3 and 92.8.  Currently Bicknell has 90.7.

Runs - Once again Bicknell could break this record with 10 more runs.

HR- Maybe the most monumental record.  Bicknell is about to dethrone the Home Run King, Sherwood Johnston.  Bicknell currently has 44, Johnston's record is 45.  Will Johnston be in attendance for number 46?

RBI's -  Will fall.  Was held by Johnston 1981.

Finally in non Bicknell news, Mike Robinson should move into 2nd place in Hit by Pitches.

MIAMI

- Tom Delzoppo has put himself in the career leaderboards for AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, VORP.  Delzoppo looks like he may end up having quite a great career.

- Miguel Torres and Coy Rollins are currently ranked 1 and 2 for season SLG percentage, surpassing Ken Hamilton's .540 in 1987.  They are also 1 and 2 in OPS, once again surpassing Ken Hamilton's 1987.

- Miguel Torres is one HR behind Ken Bryant's record of 39 in 1990.  That record should fall and Ken Bryant will congratulate him with total sincerity.

OMAHA

-  Frank Patterson is threatening to break the AVG record of .363 by "Mr Wolverine" David Kimble in 1977.  Jason Stephenson and Craig Belcher will finish in the top 10.

- In OBP, Kimble still dominates but Patterson, Lewis and Belcher will all cement their 1994's in the books.  In SLG, Garrett's 1993 looks safe but Belcher and Patterson are currently 2 and 3.  In OPS, it goes Belcher (94) .982, Garrett (93) .981, and Patterson (94) .974.  Toss up.

- Patteson is creeping up on Garrett's VORP record from '93.  Mario Rodriguez's career VORP may never be broken due to the fact that the average tenure of a Wolverine is less than 3 years.

- Frank Patterson is on pace to beat Ricardo Hernandez' record for hits in a season, 223, set last year.

- Ben Lindsay should take 2nd on the HR list following Garrett's 1993.

- Lindsay could also threaten the single season K record, he'll place in the top 3 for sure.

-  Looking at Omaha record book, David Kimble is still all over it.  Even with the explosion of Wolverine offense in the last two years, Kimble has made a lasting mark.

Omaha Moves- Dave Morgan

February 2nd, 2009 by Wolverines GM

Give Dave Morgan whatever he wants for an extension. He has our ballclub playing at an amazing level the last 2 years and especially in late innings where we have inordinate amount of extra innings wins and we attribute a lot of it to Dave's managing and attitude. So we will give him what he wants and if that makes him the highest paid manager in EWB than so be it, he deserves it.

Admiral Moves

February 2nd, 2009 by Admirals GM

1. In light of the other free agent offers being extended, we're going to make a few of our own.  Offer mL contracts to FAs Jose Chapa (SP) and Alfredo Valez (SP).  Also offer FA  Christian Murray (C) a 2 year deal ML deal at the ML league minimum.

 

2. Give Bob Washington exactly what he's requesting for an extension.

 

3. I want to experiment with a strict pitch count limit with George Banks.  Banks has actually been pitching pretty well lately, but he's getting killed by Bob Washington's slow hook.  On 8/8 vs. Caroloina, he had given up just 1 ER in 6 IP, and we were winning 4-1.  Then he gives up 1 ER in the 7th, 2 ER in the 8th (allowing Carolina to tie it up), and yet another ER in the 9th, giving the Colonials the lead and ultimately the win (Banks got the loss).  On 8/13 vs. Las Vegas, Banks gave up 0 ER thru 7 IP.  We were winning 1-0 at that point, so I don't necessarily blame Washington for keeping him in for the 8th.  During the 8th, though, he gives up 2 ER, and so now Carolina is up 2-1.  Thankfully, in the bottom of the inning we explode, scoring 10 runs and taking an 11-2 lead.  But now, Washington send Bank out in the 9th, and allows him to give up 4 ER before yanking him.  Banks got the win that game (final score: 11-6), but his stat line should've been 8 IP, 2 ER (or maybe even 7 IP, 0 ER).  Instead, it was 8 IP (he didn't record an out in the 9th), 6 ER, which gives him an ERA of 6.75 on the day, when in fact he pitched really, really well.

 

So, here is Banks' pitch limit: 98 pitches.  We might experiment with that number a little bit (obviously, it's a little low), but that's where we'll start off with.

Warren Younger

February 2nd, 2009 by Banditos GM

Warren Younger whom I propose we nickname "Mannequin" because he looks so wooden, is 3-1, 3.09 ERA for Dallas.  Quite impressive.  He's also slotted into their 3rd starter.  Unfortunately Greg Woolridge, slotted as #1 MR, isn't doing as well.  In 12 games for Dallas he's sporting a 6.46 ERA.

I assume these fortunes will change for both players, however I'll admit I never foresaw Younger even playing in EWB in any substantial role let alone a 3rd Starter.

Carolina Colonials

February 2nd, 2009 by Banditos GM

The Colonials have taken a 2 game lead on the Wildcard.  Carolina has an awesome bullpen, 2nd in the AL.  Led by young closer Duane Lawrence, they also have former closer Mike Wynn and Miguel Lara in the setup roles.

Another interesting note about Carolina is that July trades probably propelled them to where they are now.  Their starting 2B, 3B and SS were all acquired through July '94 trades.

On July 1st Carolina trades 36 year old MR Sean Young, one of the game's better MR and was posting a 2.78 ERA at the time, back to St. Louis.  Young spent the majority of his career as a Savage.  In return they received 3B Joe Rouse who is playing phenomenally for Carolina, hitting .296 with 11 HR in 45 games and sporting a .946 OPS.

On July 11th Carolina trades 31 year old CF Gavin James to Indianapolis for 25 year old 3B Jack Saunders.  James had been playing decent for Carolina, especially filling in for injured Kenneth Brown.  However, they knew James would be expendable with Brown on his way back.  Jack Saunder is a great defensive IF at all positions and Carolina wanted him to replace the aging Russell "Octopus" Cox at SS.  Saunders has done admirably, hitting .324 with an .809 OPS since coming to Carolina.

Finally on July 25th, days before the trade deadline, Carolina sent another quality reliever away for an infielder.  MR Lou Murray was traded for 2b Teko de Bode and a mL player.  de Bode was brought in to play 70% of the games at 2B over former starter Glenn Hill who just wasn't getting things done anymore.  de Bode's defense is questionable but he's having an excellent offensive year, projecting .311/12/49, .391/.464/.855, 44.2 VORP.

GM Robbie Johnson really has to be given a lot of credit for making this push, as it looks like it's paying off.

Bill Thomas Note

February 2nd, 2009 by Banditos GM

Offered all mL contracts.  Kaiser, Serna, McDaniel all asked for EWB contracts.

Bill Thomas was signed by Minneapolis on 8/16.  Interesting note on Thomas, Minneapolis is the THIRD team he's played for in 1994.  He started the season in El Paso and was traded to Portland in the trade that sent Hector Garcia away.  Thomas was released by Portland, incredibly, and then picked up by Minneapolis.  Makes you wonder what the hell the reasoning for the Portland-El Paso trade was.

One More Note

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

I had missed the Geoff McKnight trade.  He was sent by L.A. to Washington D.C. in exchange for C Ken Hamilton + a 4th round draft pick.

 

Well, here's the thing.  You know how many wins McKnight has?  296.  He's freaking 4 wins away from 300, and L.A. -- his team forever, basically -- trades him away.  It's been a frusturating year for McKnight.  He came into the season at 293 wins, needing only 7.  And he's pitched decently -- his 4.47 ERA is about average in today's offense-dominated game.  But because the Gargoyles are so horrible, that 4.47 ERA translated into only a 3-9 record for the Gargoyles.  Add L.A.'s badness to a midseason  injury for McKnight, and the guy hasn't won a game since June 5th, over 2 months ago.

 

Maybe L.A. traded him away to try to give him a better team so he could more easily pass the 300 milestone?  I don't know.  Hard to justify.  (They do get a draftpick, so at least part of the justification is their needed youth movement.)

Admiral moves

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

1.  Offer Gustavo Chavez 3 years @ $3.75M per.

 

I suspect that once he gets it, he'll immediately go to shit.  Happened to Sergio Garcia last year; happened to Joe MacGregor this year (who has fallen apart since his extension).  On the other hand, $3.75M is a relative bargain for a 10 pt. pitcher, and we don't have enough pitching lined up for the future to allow Chavez to go.  This offseason could bring some drastic moves, though, depending on how this season shakes out.  The Admirals appear to have fallen a step behind Omaha and Miami, and I'm not happy with that.

 

2. Make Brandon Kent the full-time starter at 2B, and shift his official position to there.  (Still Let D. Smith play when Kent is tired.)

 

3. Speaking of position changes, make Bicknell's official position CF.

 

Bicknell has improved defensively in CF over the year, going from 4 at the beginning of the year to 6 now.  That's huge for us: 6 really is a passable CF.  I used to think Bicknell playing there was just temporary, but as long as he can give us 6 defense, we won't be in any rush to move him.  With respect to value, this is a serious part of Bicknell's value to us: the fact that we can plug him into CF and get passable defense there is huge for us.

 

4. We're going to try out a pretty new lineup.  It goes like this...

 

  1. Jose Garcia, SS

  2. Mark Jackson, RF

  3. Mike Robinson, LF [note: new position]

  4. Artie Bicknell, CF

  5. Dale Reinert, DH [new position]

  6. Leo Kennedy, C

  7. Duane Shepard, 1B

  8. Patrick Cole, 3B

  9. Brandon Kent, 2B

 

We are giving Shepard a chance to play for a Sim.  Having Robinson in LF makes us a little nervous: the guy gets injury prone at exactly this time of year, and playing the field creates more opportunity for that.  I'll give it a chance for awhile though.

 

We're sitting Jose Rivera this Sim.  For the most part I'm pretty happy with how Rivera has produced as a rookie: .313 BA (after a recent slump -- most of the year his BA was in the .370s), and 16 SBs in 80 games, so you figure he would project to 30+ SBs over a full season.  And he plays 10 LF, and he hasn't reached his contact potential yet.  On the other hand, his complete inability to draw walks or produce extra base hits of any sort really is a liability.  Consider this: despite hitting .313 with 16 SBs, he has a VORP of negative 1.0!  That's hard to do, with such a good BA.  And he strikes out a lot: 71 times in 280 ABs.  If he were to play 162 games and still strike out at that rate, you'd be looking at around 170 Ks.  He would seriously contend for the EWB record of 169 (set by Mike Farrell in 1989 and Jack Kelley in 1972).

 

The guy really has an unusual combination of talents + complete defecits.  I think he still could become a pretty good leadoff hitter for us once he reaches 5 contact, and I actually suspect that the Duane Shepard experiment we're trying now won't last too long and that Rivera will be back in the lineup before long.  But really, Rivera has to hit about at least .340 to be as productive as we need (because that would only correspond to a .370 OBP or so).  Rivera hitting .315 isn't quite good enough.  He really is Cory Banks.

 

5. Ask Bob Washington how much he wants for an extension.  Based on his picture, it seems like Bob Washington has aged quite a bit this year.  Maybe the stress of our horrible July is getting to him.

 

QUICK NOTES:

 

1. San Antonio's trade deadline moves are paying off huge for them.  Kelly actually made 2 starts last Sim, the one you mentioned where he went 8 IP and gave up 0 ER, and another start vs. Philadelphia where he went 6 IP, gave up 4 Hits, and just 1 ER.  He earned the win in both games.  His record with the Aztecas so far is 2-0 and 0.64.  We are glad to see it -- for whatever reason, Kelly always was a fan favorite, both in the sense that I liked him, but also in the sense that his local popularity rating was always surprisingly high.  (He is "unknown" now in San Antonio.)  Besides Kelly, the Aztecas acquired RF David Pena from Boston in exchange for MR Allen Williams (off to a poor start for the Irish) and a minor leaguer.  Kelly has 4-3 ratings and is batting 5th for the Aztecas.  In his 11 games in San Antonio, he's batting .389 with 5 HRs, 9 RBis, and 12 Runs.  He has an OPS of 1.269 and a VORP of 8.8 in just those 11 games.  GM Pablo Lara is looking like a miracle worker.

 

2. Guess who Chicago called up on August 2nd?  None other than Ronald Hargrove.  He has played in 1 game with 0 ABs since his recall.

 

3. Artie Dunlap pitched against us when we played Chicago.  He gave up 2 ERs in 0.1 IP, and we won the game by 2.  So hey, the trade is working out for the Admirals so far.

 

4. Washington's record in July was 9-20.  Omaha was 20-9.  Miami was 18-11.  Pittsburhg was 10-19, leaving them just about out of the Ohio Valley race. 

 

5. The AL Gibson Award is extremely wide open.  I might lean toward Aurelio Davila this very moment.  He continues to be a remarkable comeback story.  Other big candidates: Ed Jackson (fading a little recently), Stephen Ferguson (coming on strong, and actually leads the AL in pitcher's VORP), Carlos Pena, and Bartolo Barrios.  Few other people could get into the race as well.

 

6. I think the NL MVP is even more wide open.  The best players stat-wise generally play for horrible teams (Jonathan Rodgers, Albert Perez, and even Don Kelly's Iron Horses aren't doing great).  Let me float a very unlikely candidate: Will Gray of Cleveland, who's 3rd in RBIs.  Gray has been a decent player for awhile, but always under the radar.

Omaha

January 31st, 2009 by Banditos GM

I got admit I'm mystified by Omaha's moves.  They must be the first team ever to start dissembling a team when they have the best record in baseball.  In the course of a week Omaha has gotten rid of Emilio Romano and Artie Dunlap for a slew of minor leaguers and Moran.  The fans have to be shocked, I know I am.  Perhaps it's time for a Letter to the Editor from GM MikeG or an Arthur Thunderpussy take.

San Antonio Change

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

On the Aztecas trade front, our offer is...

 

Doug Kelly in exchange for AA SP Julio De La Hoya.

 

Hoya's potential is 2-3-3 (2 in stuff), which adds up to 8 pts. total.  He's 25, which is a little too old to be in AA, but the Aztecas have a pretty good staff in AAA, which might be keeping him down.  He's "angry," presumably because he has been stuck in AA since 1992.  He has lost a pt. on his actual compared to potential, so it looks like he's in decline a little bit.  On the other hand, he has relatively good WHIP and K/9 throughout his minor league career, which is why we've decided to take a chance on him instead of other prospects, like teammate Albert Cross (who, at 22, seems like a better prospect).

Re: Trade Proposal for Cincinnati; and for San Antonio

January 31st, 2009 by Banditos GM

Giving up Simpson is going to be tough.  First of all he was a 2nd round draft pick in 1993, the Rebels still see a lot of future potential.  Also, the trade seems a little out of balance to us.

We'd be willing to substitute LF Manuel Ornelas (A Gretna) for Simpson.  Ornelas has nearly the same ratings and is a little further developed.  The only negative in relation to Simpson, is that he's slightly worse defensively.

Is the SA deal dependent on the Cincy deal going through?  Will give thoughts on SA deal separately if Cincy goes through.

Re: Bob Mosley

January 31st, 2009 by Banditos GM

Well there's no way to know for sure.  My assumption would be something like this:  All mL players were resigned in late October or even earlier whenever the directive was given.  I and you guys probably assumed that would be the end of the story, however, since FA is product of service time maybe it's possible that Moseley became a FA after I resigned the eligible players. 

Now that this has been noticed, we must make an effort to check the day before FA's declare to make sure everyone is signed.  As far as Mosley goes, I guess the ball is in your court.  If the Admirals make a formal complaint to Commissioner Koenig, Mosley would be returned since it appears that it could be partly the league's fault.

Re: San Antonio(Justin)- Hargrove Again

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

The guy is such a gamer that when Hargrove does officially retire, I want to make sure he becomes a coach or manager in the EWB system.  If you're sticking it out in AAA at age 37, you must have a real passion for the game.

Re: San Antonio(Justin) - Ronald Hargrove

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

If Mike really wants Hargrove, that's fine, but consider the following...

 

Hargrove, age 37, has been with the Chicago Samurai organization ever since 1976, when he signed with them as an undrafted free agent.  He has seen action in their AAA Charlotte squad ever since 1982.  I'm sure if you look at the Charlotte record books, his name will be all over them.

 

Hargrove has seen action at the ML level in parts of 3 separate seasons.  First, in 1985, at age 27, he played just 1 game with the Samurai.  He did not have a plate appearance in the game.  Then, 8 years later -- 8 years! -- Hargrove saw his second glimpse of major league action in 1993.  Now aged 36, Hargrove finally got his first major league at bat.  I bet that's a record for EWB: oldest player to get their first AB (if you discount the very start of the league, where back in 1970 everyone was getting their first EWB at bat).  Over the course of 1993, he played 27 ML games, mostly as a pinch hitter.  In 32 at bats, he collected 7 hits and 10 K's, batting .219.  And then again in 1994, he's seen a little playing time: 4 games, 4 at bats, 2 hits.

 

The guy is 37 years old and still plugging away, ALWAYS for Chicago and (mostly) their minor league affiliates.  Remarkable.

Re: San Antonio(Justin)

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

I'll say something about my own trades in a second -- after I think things over -- but first let me reply for Chicago...

 

Well, we cetainly won't give up a 1st round pick.  But how about a 5th round pick?  Look at the relief pitchers selected in the 5th round of the 1994 draft...

 

Jeremy Atkinson to NO: 3-4-3 (10 total)

David Greene to LV: 4-4-2 (10 total)

Dan Palmer to Pittsburgh: 3-4-3 (10 total)

 

So, a 5th round pick can probably nab you a 10 pt. reliever (if that's how you want to use the pick), which is exactly the level of reliever you were looking for out of San Antonio.

 

And, as far as inter-division competition, look at like this.  First, again, we aren't going to get the division title away from you.  Second, it's guaranteed that we won't play you in the first round -- at most, we could play you in the ALCS, and only then if we both win our series.  Third, if we make the playoffs, odds are that Minneapolis will.  And the thing is, you probably don't want Minneapolis in.  They are a much more well-rounded team than we are, with great starters, a good bullpen (or at least a good closer in MacNiter), and an offense that's thriving behind Picot and Reyes.  So, from the standpoint of Machiavellian scheming, you should want Chicago in, not the Mutiny.

Re: San Antonio(Justin) - Dunlap Trade

January 31st, 2009 by Wolverines GM

The only way we do this deal is if it is R Great Falls MR Eric George and a 1st round pick, there is no compromise on our part because of in division and nothing else we want in your organization. Remember Dunlap is a 4 star MR and we are not desperate to get rid of him. Again the only way we trade him is if the right deal came along we are not trading him just for the sake of trading.

Re: San Antonio(Justin)

January 31st, 2009 by Admirals GM

Counterreply -- From *Chicago*

 

Fellow Plains Divisioner, we here you are shopping Artie Dunlap.  The thing is, San Antonio doesn't have a pressing need for relief pitchers -- it's actually probably their team strength.  But we do.  Look at our team stats and you'll see our starters' ERA is among the best in the league while our relievers is among the worst.

 

Now, some GMs might be hesitant to trade within their own division.  But here's the thing: there's no way we're going to catch you.  11 GB at the start of August?  No way.  This is all about holding off Minneapolis, who's making a strong run on us right now for the Wild Card.  You hate Egghead, as do we.  Make this trade to screw over your rival.

 

Anyway, here's our offer.

 

Dunlap FOR Fraser Roberts (on ML roster) + any 9 pt. reliever from our minor league system + any RP less than 9 pts. from our minor league system.

 

RATIONALE: Roberts is included in the exchange only for salary reasons: without him in the deal (or someone equivalent), we won't be able to take on Dunlap's salary.  If you look at our minor league system, you'll see we don't have any relievers above 9 pts., with the one exception of R Patrick Robinson, who we're not going to trade.  But look.  Dunlap is a 9 pt. pitcher himself, so you're getting equivalent value.  Plus you get to take a chance on some 8 pt. guy who might develop into a 9.  We're giving you all the freedom you could want to pick out who these guys could be: what level, etc.

 

REPLY?

Lakeland

January 31st, 2009 by Wolverines GM

With the way poltical correctness is going these days we have had some complaints from citizens of the Lakeland area and other states so the Lakeland Hillbillies will be changing their name next year to the.........

 

Lakeland Spitfires

 

 

The colors will be black and gold

 

they will have black uniforms with gold pinstripes, gold hats

 

The Omaha Wolverines Organization and the Lakeland affiliate would like to appologize to anyone offended by the nickname. We as an organization are taking steps to change the nickname for the 95 season. Again we apologize and hope you buy your season tickets for the Lakeland Spitfires.

 

                                            Sincerely,

                                                Nick Gerz

                                          GM Lakeland Spitfires

San Antonio(Justin)

January 31st, 2009 by Wolverines GM

We offer MR Artie Dunlap to San Antonio for A Lake Elsinore CL Lawrence Collins.

 

Rationale- If they complete the deal to get Doug Kelly they would add a needed MR to their pitching staff. This would ultimately help their chances at the wild card and MAYBE the division. Dunlap is a really good MR and cheap on top of it, we think this a good deal for both sides. Dunlap has a 2.73 ERA in the American League, he will be much better in the NL. The only reason we do this deal is because we have a plethora of MR and he is up for arbitration.

Trade Proposal for Cincinnati; and for San Antonio

January 30th, 2009 by Admirals GM

Start with Cincinnati.

 

We send the Rebels mL 3B Colin Brown + AAA RP Aaron Jennings in exchange for ML SP Cesar Lopez + R (Sarasota) RF Scott Simpson

 

 Rationale.  (I provide this both to persuade you, Rob, and also to give you a sense of my thinking in case there's a counter offer.)  Of the SPs you mentioned in your e-mail, the one I'm interested in is Lopez, because he's about to be a free agent.  He would be a rent-a-player for us.  You should take that into account: if the Rebels don't deal Lopez, there's a reasonable chance that they'll just let him go as a FA, and get nothing in return.

 

However, I don't really want to give up Colin Brown for Lopez straight up.  As you note, my farm system is pretty bare, and Brown is one of my few decent prospects.  Even with Karl Fox ahead of him, he's one of my few decent trading chips.  So I expanded the trade to include Simpson.  Simpson is a 3-3 projected RF, with good speed and defense.  He projects to possible ML starter, or more likely backup.  (In fact, his ratings look a lot like a young Mitchell Henderson, but I'm hoping he might blossom.)

 

Jennings is a 9 pt. relief pitcher who is major league ready.  Cincinnati's present ML bullpen includes a 6 pt. pitcher (the sinking like a stone Scott Laws), a 7 pt. pitcher (William Patterson), and 2 8 pt. pitcher (Santiago Camacho and Oscar Brandon).  So, Jennings projects to be one of their better relievers immediately, although as we've seen before, you never know how the computer will manage their roster.

 

Now for San Antonio.

 

*If* the trade with Cincinnati works out, I will want to trade Doug Kelly.  A team that really could use him is San Antonio, who is still just 3 games back for Wild Card.  I run the Texas Division, so to make a trade with the Aztecas I will need to convince you guys.  Here's my offer...

 

Doug Kelly for A (Lake Elsinore) SP Jose Rodriguez.  Rodriguez has 8 pt. potential: 3-2-3, with the 2 rating being in control.  (Seems to me there's a consensus: the individual pitcher rating that matters most is control.)  Like Kelly, he's an 8 pt. potential pitcher.  I would add that the Aztecas have pretty good minor league depth in SP, and so Rodriguez is no special jewel to them.

 

My own view is that this deal is pretty much a no-brainer for San Antonio.  Kelly isn't great this year, but he's upgrade for the pennant run, and they're able to get him for cheap.  The only reason I'm willing to do the deal myself is because Kelly is scheduled to be a free agent, I won't need him this year if I complete the deal with Cincinnati, and I feel like I might as well try to get something for him.

 

Bob Mosley

January 30th, 2009 by Admirals GM

I'm thinking up potential deals between Washington and other teams, right before the deadline.

 

But while I was looking, I wanted to mention something that had occurred to me before.  I'm not fully sure how Bob Mosley left my team.  Mosley is a minor league catcher presently in the Cincinnati organization.  He's a mid-level prospect: ranked #13 on Cincinnati's BA list.  He was with my team until last year, and I actually thought of him as a possible major leaguer, as a backup catcher.  (That's not very high praise: you can be a 2-2 and still get by as a backup catcher, as Carlos Lopez did for me for years.)  But somehow, he became a minor league free agent on 11/18/93, and then Cincinnati eventually signed him to a minor league contract.

 

My standing policy regarding minor leaguers is to always re-sign them.  Those who are going to be let go by me are officially released -- e.g., Min-chul Pak -- not let go as free agents.

 

In light of that, I think Mosley being let go might have been a clerical error?  It's not a big deal -- really, Mosley is nothing special, he projects to a marginal big league backup at best.  But I was wondering.