Earl Weaver Baseball League

The Pittsburgh Relievers

October 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

No theory on why Omaha is so hot, offensively.  I think it's just that we've only played 6 games.  I mean, the Wolverines will have a good offense, there's no doubt.  But they won't keep it up.

 

Anyway, the Pittsburgh Crusaders have a fairly interesting relief corps.

 

Start with closer Jesus Villanueva.  After an unbelievable 1991 -- 50 Saves, 1.01 ERA -- he fell back to earth in 1992, collecting 31 saves with a 3.78 ERA.  Which Villanueva shows up in 1993?  He's only 28, and his ratings are still good (11 pt. pitcher), though down a little from 1991 (12 pt.).  But note: his present 11 pt. status is identical to what he was in 1990, and back then he had 34 Saves and a 1.32 ERA.  I suspect he'll be much improved over 1992, but not as good as 1991.

 

The Crusaders have two interesting set up men.  First, there's Ademaro Buchner.  The 33-year-old German used to be one of the best closers in the game, having won 2 Fireman of the Year Awards (1984, 1985) for the Kansas City Wheat Kings.  Buchner's career took a wrong turn when he (re-)signed with New Orleans in 1990.  Even though he had a 2.37 ERA that year, the Dukes did not use him to close games out, and in fact they used him in just 24 games and 30.1 IP, even though he had no injuries.  He signed a big free agent contract with Pittsburgh after the season, expecting that he would be inserted back into the closer's role after 1 year off.  It did not happen, thanks to Villanueva.  Buchner is still pretty good: 10 pt. pitcher, who had a 3.25 in 88.2 relief IP last year.  But, making more than $2.5M, he's overpaid as a setup man.  By the way, I was thinking about pursuing him this offseason to be my closer, but opted instead for Medina because of the contract.

 

Pittsbrugh's other set up man is Ricky Powell, recently acquired from New Orleans.  (Funny: the last 2 New Orleans closers, Powell and Buchner, are now Pittsburgh set up men.)  After posting 41 Saves and a 3.41 ERA for New Orleans in 1991, Powell was demoted to set up man last year for them, and he'll play the same role for Pittsburgh.  Like Buchner, he doesn't seem very happy with the role.

 

In middle relief, Pittsburhg has Juan Torres, who used to be a Washington Admiral back in 1990 and 1991.  Torres alternated between the majors and AAA for us, and because he never really found his niche in the majors, we left him off our 40 man roster back in the 1991 offseason.  Pittsburgh ended up drafting him in the Rule 5 draft, and Torres posted a 2.91 ERA for them in 1992.  We're happy to see his post-Admiral career bloom.

 

Another former Admiral is Kenny O'Neal, middle reliever.  He's kind of a funny case.  After winning the World Series with Dallas back in 1990, O'Neal became a free agent, and no one called him up with an offer, until we did on March 2nd of 1991.  We signed him at a good deal: 1 year at $210K.  Our bullpen that year was horrible, and as a result O'Neal got a lot of action.  He performed pretty well: a 3.56 ERA in 66.2 IP.  O'Neal is notable for his exceptional (5 pt.) control, which makes him a 10 pt. pitcher overall.  Anyway, as 1991 wore on we were pleased with him, and wanted to make him an extension offer.  O'Neal would have none of it: he told us in no uncertain terms that he wanted to test the market and become a free agent.  Once he did so, he ended up asking for over $1M a year, which we thought was ridiculous.  Someone paid it to him though: Pittsburgh.  On March 2nd of 1992, the Crusaders called with a 2 year, $2M deal, and O'Neal paid them back with a mediocre 4.50 ERA last year.  $1M is a lot to pay to a middle reliever, and a mediocre one at that.

 

Pittsburgh's remaining middle relievers, Julian Alonso and Marcos Hernandez, aren't especially notable.

 

Still, there's a lot of stories going on in the Pittsburgh bullpen, especially given our connection to two of their relievers.

 

One more thing to mention.  Pittsburgh is a small market team.  As such, they have a small budget to work with: their payroll is just $31.5M in 1992.  With all these former closers and big names (and Kenny O'Neal, who doesn't fit either description, but who still gets paid a lot), Pittsburgh is spending more than $7M on their relief corp alone, almost a quarter of their overall budget.  And still, it's not like their bullpen is all that good.  Villaneuva is ranked as the 8th best closer (decent), but their other relievers are ranked 21st. 

 

So, is this really the best use of team resources?  I think Pittsburgh G.M. Wayne Gordon should come under intense scrutiny if the Crusaders don't win in 1993.  (He should also come under fire for trading away Frank Patterson in 1992.  Neither of the players he got in exchange look at all decent.  If he had to trade Patterson at all, he would have been much better served to strike a deal with Omaha, and get Brown and Wright in exchange.)

Couple of Things

October 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

1)  Mike whatever happened to your promotional schedule?  In case we made it back to Omaha we were hoping to get a Felix Rojas bobblehead.  By the way Omaha is traveling to Washington in the upcoming series.  Will Washington's utter domination of Omaha continue?

2)  Any team previews from Omaha or Washington?  Miami will work on one but am focusing on getting the league all updated.  I have work off today so am uploading pics now, this takes the longest damn near 6 hours.  Then I'll do minors, then histories but Histories don't necessarily need to be done to continue the sim.

3)  Mike, you should throw in a prediction publication too. 

4)  Anybody have thoughts on the Offensive explosion in Omaha through the first 6 games?  Really fuckin crazy, take a look at the box scores.  I think one game they had 24 hits, R. Hernandez and Ortiz both had 5 hits.  Also, I think Hernandez has a 20+ hit streak going.

Re: Other Pre-Season Notes

October 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

1)  Montreal has a loaded AAA team in particular in OF.  Brown, Tony Marino CF, and Albert Perez RF are all star prospects.  In addition, Kilvington is still generally a good prospect at 3B.  Montreal also has a 5 star 1B and a 4 star 1B.  In other words the Columbus Border Cats, nominated by Mike as worst uniforms, are loaded.  Montreal team of the late 1990's??  Also, Bill James is GM of Detroit not Montreal.  Montreal's GM is Joe Steines, former Dallas GM and Executive of the Year.

2)  Ken Cooper will never have another 1991, I agree.  I think he will definitely improve on last year and continue to be a decent 1B.

3)  Update on Banks.  He is no longer behind Fields, Fields is now in AAA.  Banks is actually backup CF behind a fairly strong OF of Greg Stevens, Jason Callahan and Tom Jordan.  Banks agrees he should be in the starting lineup, he is infuriated right now.  I predict that Boston will put him on the trade block sometime soon.

Other Pre-Season Notes

October 21st 2008 by Admirals GM

Other things I couldn't fit into the algorithm report...

 

1. Frank "Mounds" Hearn is starting the season for Boston in the rotation: he's their third starter.  Conspiracy Theory: by alternating him between the rotation and the closer role, Boston is able to drive down Mounds' value -- he doesn't get enough saves to rank as an elite closer, or enough wins to rank as an elite starter.  Evidence: Mounds only got paid $2.65M in arbitration this year.  I don't really believe this is a "conspiracy," but it may be an unintended consequence of Anderson's switching.  Incidentally, Hearn is projected to be a free agent after the season.  Boston figures to have tons of contract room -- they could be the Carolina of 1993 -- so money shouldn't be a problem if they want to re-sign him.

 

2. While we're on Boston, I mention again that RF Cory Banks is still on the team, but isn't in the starting lineup.  After batting .345/2/46/27 with an astonishing 237 hits in 1991, Banks fell apart to .232/1/8/4 in 1992.  The biggest difference might have simply been playing time: after getting 686 AB in 1991, he got only 125 AB in 1992.  And that's not due to injury: Boston manager Sparky Anderson just decided not to play him.  His ratings fell a little: from 5 contact in 1991 to 4 in 1992, but 4 contact is still pretty good.  So what gives?  It's gotta be this: Banks is a horrible Sabermetrics player.  He has horrible power (1) and a horrible eye (1).  In 1991, when he batted .345, his OBP was ONLY .351.  Just to give you a quick comparison: last year, Roy Wilson batted like .270 for me, but his OBP was about .350, the same as Banks.  Given his 4 contact rating, I suspect that if Banks got enough AB, he could hit .310 or so over the course of the season.  If his OBP is only going to be .320 or so, and if he has no power, then this .310 BA is pretty worthless.  Just how far has Banks fallen?  Right now, he's sitting the bench behind a guy named Wilbert Field, a 33 year old RF who has pitiful ratings of 2-2 contact-power (but a 4 eye), and who last saw significant action in 1990, when he batted .239/4/28 for Montreal.  Wilbert has spent most of the last two seasons in AAA.  In Sparky Anderson's estimation, Wilbert is better than Cory Banks.

 

3. Speaking of fallen stars, remember Anthony Miller?  The Philadelphia OF was drafted with the 2nd overall pick back in 1986, and was rated as the #1 prospect in all of baseball when we started our jobs, back in 1990.  His potential ratings in 1990 were 5-4 (contact-power), while in 1991 they were 4-5.  In 1990, he was batting .317/17/58 for Philadelphia before injuries forced him out of action in the 2nd half of the season, likely costing him the Angel Rosa Award.  Injuries plagued him again in 1991, and he ended up missing the entire year to a torn PCL suffered in spring training.  In 1992, his comeback year, he struggled quite a bit, batting .252/16/58 in almost 120 games.  Well, right now he's on the bench for Philadelphia with ratings of just 2-3 (he does have 2-4 potential, which is better, but still not good enough to start on hardly any team).  Miller is one of those players who will go down in baseball history for never living up to his potential.  My own prediction: he spends a good deal of time on the ML roster in 1993, but then fades away, and we never hear from him again.

 

4. I always have kept an eye on Miller, in part because I was seriously thinking about trying to trade for him at one point.  Since 1990, I had the thought of dealing Ty Moore to get a good young hitter, and I regarded Miller as a prime candidate, even *after* his injuries -- in fact, I still thought about pursuing Miller last offseason, when I finally did trade Moore.  Another player I considered trading Moore to acquire was Curito Mendoza, formerly of Chicago who is now playing for Indianapolis in 1993 as their starting RF.  Back in 1990, Mendoza had 5-5 potential and 4-3 actual ratings.  But, again, he suffered a major injury: a herniated disk in his back that knocked him out for 8 months.  Thanks to the injury, he's down to 3-3 ratings today (both actual and potential).  Unlike Miller, Mendoza still does look like a major league contributor: he batted .272/17/69/20 last year for Chicago, and I expect him to put up similar numbers this time for Indianapolis.  But again, I'm sure glad I didn't trade for him.

 

5. The player I did end up trading Moore for was Artie Bicknell.  Bicknell is yet to produce a ton on the field, but I've already been lucky in at least one respect: although Bicknell only had 4-4 potential when I acquired him, he quickly moved up to 5-5 potential.  And, right this moment, he's reached 5-5 actual.  There is only one other player in EWB right now that I'm aware of as a 5-5 guy: Caleb Lang.  Don Kelly is not (Kelly is down to 4-4, so he's past his peak).  Vincent Carter is not (4-5).  I'm seriously hoping that Bicknell steps up his game, big-time in 1993, contending for an MVP alongside Lang.  Of course, now that I've written him up in a post where I'm talking about other young stars who succumbed to injury, I might have doomed him.  There's a difference between Bicknell and the others though: Mendoza and Miller had a lot of potential, but there actual ratings never got to where Bicknell is right now.

 

6. In 1991, Ken Cooper batted .316/44/116 and had a VORP of 59.6.  He was my first place vote for the NL MVP.  In 1992, he batted .230/29/100 with a VORP of just 3.7.  The team that really wishes they still had Frank Patterson isn't Montreal.  It's Pittsburgh.  It will be interesting to see what sort of career Cooper has from here on out.  He will never approach his 1991 numbers again; that's for sure, I think.

 

7. I'm not nearly so sure that Montreal got ripped off by Omaha in the Patterson trade.  For one thing, their starting 1B right now is Roy Payton, who's just 26 and already has 4-4 ratings and who produced better for Montreal last year than Patterson did.  For another, Tommy Brown seems to have improved quite a bit, going from the #66 Prospect in 1992 to the #19 prospect in 1993.  He seems to be just one year away -- I expect he'll be in Montreal in 1994.  Meanwhile, Bill Wright is starting the season in AAA and he too should be ready for AAA.  And, as a guy with 11 point potential, Wiright projects to a staff ace.  More generally, Montreal is pretty loaded in their farm system.  In AAA, they have two first basemen with 4-4 potential; while in AA they have another first baseman with 3-5 potential.  In AAA they have a RF with 4-5 potential.  And this is to pass over last year's #1 pick Danny Beasley, who still has 5-4 potential even if he's seen his star fade a little bit.  Especially noteworthy: exlcuding Beasley, these are all players who are in the high minors, guys who should be ready soon.  Let's see how Bill James handles this situation.

Orker vs. Algorithm

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Orker scanned all the teams and used his wise sight and intuition to make his predictions.  At the end of the year we should grade the predictions like they do for college football magazines.

Lots of similar predictions. 

1)  Obviously Orker has a bias towards Miami, placing them above Carolina.  Otherwise Sunbelt is pretty much straight.

2) Only discrepancy in Plains is Minneapolis and Chicago for 4 and 5.

3) Big discrepancy regarding LA.  Algorithm likes them, Orker has them finishing last presumably playing bad since they are behind mediocre LV and Portland.

4) Difference in Colonial is Philly and DC.  The algorithm surprised Orker, as he thought he was stepping out on a limb with DC 2nd and having Boston down to 4.

5)  Ohio Valley is a little shook up.  Once again Orker thought he was making a surprise pick with Cincinnati.  Though he picked Detroit 5th and the Algorithm (you should really create a name and brand it, much more marketable than "the algorithm) picked Detroit to win the Division.  Orker also gives a lot more value to St. Louis than the Algorithm.  The Algorithm thinks Cleveland will be much better than what Orker thinks.

6)  Texas Division comes down to the difference of opinion on Dallas.  But as mentioned by Orker, he believes that Division could be a crap shoot with the exception of San Antonio.

1993 Algorithm Predictions

October 21st, 2008 by Admirals GM

Hot off the presses, here is this year's algorithm prediction...

 

AL SUNBELT

1. Carolina

2. Miami

3. Atlanta

4. New Orleans

5. Memphis

 

AL PLAINS

1. Omaha

2. Kansas City*

3. Denver

4. Minneapolis

5. Chicago

(* Wild Card)

 

AL MOUNTAIN WEST

1. Washington

2. Los Angeles

3. Las Vegas

4. Portland

 

NL COLONIAL

1. New York

2. Philadelphia*

3. Washington D.C.

4. Boston

5. Montreal

(* Wild Card)

 

NL OHIO VALLEY

1. Detroit -- TIE--

1. Cincinnati

3. Pittsburgh

4. Cleveland

5. St. Louis

6. Indianapolis

 

NL TEXAS

1. Houston

2. Austin

3. El Paso

4. Dallas

5. San Antonio

 

Play-In Game: Detroit defeats St. Louis, to win the NL OHIO VALLEY

First Round NL: New York defeats Detroit, 4-0; Houston defeats Philadelphia, 4-3

First Round AL: Omaha defeats Carolina, 4-3; Washington defeats Kansas City, 4-1

NLCS: New York defeats Houston, 4-1

ALCS: Washington defeats Omaha, 4-2

World Series: New York defeats Washington, 4-2

 

NOTES

 

1. The algorithm predicts a lot of turnover, as far as playoff teams go.  New York, Washington, and Kansas City are expected to return to the playoffs, but no one else is: not Miami, Atlanta, Boston, St. Louis, or Austin.  In fact, Boston is projected to have a bit of a fall, from 2nd to 4th, and misisng the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  Blame the departure of Rafael Valentin and Gerald Lewis.  St. Louis is expected to have an even worse fall: from 1st to 5th.  Blame the departure of Joe Murphy.  Atlanta falls a little bit, but they are still somewhat competitive, and it's not like they were all that great or talented to begin with.  Both Miami and Austin are expected to be highly competitive, but to just miss out on making the playoffs.

 

2. The algorithm is probably most helpful/interesting when it comes to evaluating teams who have made major offseason moves.  For that reason, it's predictions regarding the NL Colonial division are especially worth a look.  Despite New York's losses, it's still projected to be a dominant team -- the best in the majors, by quite a bit.  Boston, with their losses, is expected to suffer a significant drop off, although let me note that their 4th place finish is a bit misleading -- the division is very tough.  Most surprising, at least to me, is that Philadelphia's moves set them up to win the Wild Card (in a tight race with Austin).  I wouldn't have guessed that.  I would have thought that the loss of Henry Winman made them much worse.

 

3. Of course, the other place to look for major moves is Carolina.  The algorithm likes the Colonials to win their division, although it should be noted that this is predicted to be the closest race in the AL, other than the Wild Card.  The Wild Card is unbelievably neck-and-neck.  The algorithm likes Kansas City to just barely squeak it out over Miami, Denver, Los Aneles, and Las Vegas.  The difference between those 5 teams is miniscule.

 

4. Who are the worst teams in baseball?  By far, it's Memphis in the AL and San Antonio in the NL.  In fact, the difference between Memphis and the 2nd worst AL team, Chicago, is immense.  So, it looks like the Winman trade isn't going to be enough.  San Antonio is getting even worse than they have been, if that's possible.  Another bad team is Minneapolis.  The AL is more divided into great teams and horrible teams, while the NL, with the exception of San Antonio, is more a case of everybody being bunched into the middle.

 

5. The best division in baseball is expected to be the NL Colonial: New York is excellent, Philadelphia is Wild Card, Washington D. C. is expected to be much improved (like, say, 86 wins, if I had to guess), Boston is still competitive (like, say, 82 wins), and even Montreal isn't bad for a cellar dweller.  The next best is the AL Mountain West: Washington is domiant, Las Vegas and Los Angeles are expected to compete for the Wild Card, and Portland is okay.  The third best is the AL Plains; 4th best is NL Texas (weighed down a lot by San Antonio); 5th best is AL Sunbelt (weighed down even more by Memphis); and the worst by far is the NL Ohio Valley.

 

6. It's kind of surprising that the Sunbelt is expected to be so bad, given their offseason infusion of talent.  But: (a) much of that talent went to Carolina, and Carolina really is expected to be much better, (b) the division was pretty weak to begin with, so even given the talent addition, they're nothing special, and (c) Memphis is really, truly, horrible.  Replace Memphis with say Portland (the last place team from the Mountain West), and the Sunbelt would rank as the 3rd best division instead of 5th.

 

7. Just how bad is the NL Ohio Valley?  Here's one way to put it.  Boston is projected to finish 4th in the NL Colonial.  If they were in the Ohio Valley, they would be the favorites to win it.  Dallas is projected to finish 4th in the NL Texas.  If they were in the Ohio Valley, they would be the favorites to win it.  Or in other words, the Ohio Valley champion is expected to be good enough to finish 5th in the other NL divisions.  The bright side of the awfulness is that the Ohio Valley projects to be the closest, most competitive division in all of baseball.  Not only do Cincinnati and Detroit tie (according to the algorithm), but Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and even 5th place St. Louis are expected to be super close as well.  In fact, the gap between 1st place Detroit and 5th place St. Louis is closer than the gap between 1st place Carolina and 2nd place Miami from the AL Sunbelt, and the Sunbelt is a fairly tight race.  Even last place Indianapolis isn't completely out of it: the gap between them and 1st place is smaller than the gap between New York (1st) and Philadelphia (2nd) in the Colonial, and it's also smaller than the gap between Washington (1st) and Los Angeles (2nd) in the AL Mountain West.

 

8. Just how close are the various division races?  Let's do them one-by-one.  NL Colonial: Cake walk for New York, even though the other teams are good.  NL Ohio Valley: Super close, as just mentioned.  NL Texas: extremely close between Houston and Austin, with El Paso and Dallas being a good deal back, and San Antonio being off the radar.  AL Sunbelt: Fairly close between Carolina and Miami, with Atlanta and New Orleans being a good deal behind, and Memphis being way, way back.  AL Plains: Not especially close between Omaha and Kansas City / Denver, with Minneapolis and Chicago being way, way back.  AL Mountain West: Cakewalk for Washington (in fact, even more of a cakewalk than for New York), with Los Angeles and Las Vegas being about equal and Portland being way back.

 

9. The honor of best pitching staff in baseball goes to New York, with Omaha having the best in the AL.  Incidentally, the one thing preventing Omaha from having the best staff in baseball is their middle relief, which has gone way down this year (their starters and closer still rank 1st).  The best offense belongs to Washington.  By the way, one of the things that makes the NL Ohio Valley so bad is the horrible pitching.  Look at the two top teams of Detroit and Cincinnati.  Detroit's Starters/Relievers/Closers are ranked 30/30/4 (Logan Elmore is their closer, and he's pretty good at #4); Cincinnati's are ranked 27/29/28.  If either of these teams had even a mediocre pitching staff, they would have enough offense to be pretty decent.

 

10. In connection with that last point, something to mention here is that the algorithm tends to underrate young players with potential who are yet to put up much production yet.  The corollary to this point is that it overrates veteran players.  So, which teams have the best shot of outperforming their algorithmic ranking?  Not teams filled with veterans, but those filled with youngsters.  This applied to us last year: we were led in no small part by young players like Dale Reinert, Artie Bicknell, Leo Kennedy, and Patrick Cole.  And so, the algorith underrated us and picked us last.  One team to look at for possibly being underrated this year is Cincinnati, whose pitching staff in particular is filled with young players (the guys who competed for rookie of the year last year).

 

11. Human overall rankings.  Washington is the best team in the AL, and the 2nd best team in baseball (after New York).  Omaha is the 2nd best team in the AL, and the 3rd best team in baseball.  Miami is the 5th best team in the AL, and tied for the 9th best team in baseball.

 

12. Final grain of salt: Last year, the algorithm loved Los Angeles.  And in fact, it continues to be the case that the 1992 Gargoyles are the greatest team ever measured by the algorithm -- New York of this year doesn't touch them.  Problem: in real life, the Gargoyles were just 81-81.

Further Notes

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

- Cleveland has the highest rated SP prospects:  Lawrence Jordan and Earl Armstrong.  Both are starting on the EWB roster but Jordan is injured for about 6 weeks.  These two could be the difference between Cleveland being really bad or maybe making a surprise run.

- Memphis has unbelievable depth at C with 3 highly rated prospects.  One is starting in EWB, the other two are in AAA.

- Luis Carranza broke the Miami Banditos Team Record with 211 hits in 1992.  The previous record was 208 by Tom Delzoppo in his rookie 1990 season.  The Omaha record is 205 by Ricardo Hernandez in 1992.  The Washington record is 210 by Sherwood Johnston in 1975.

- Vincent "Eager Beaver" Carter is 24 HR away from 500.  63 Hits away from 2500.  45 RBI's away from 1500.

- David "Mr. Wolverine" Kimble, still an unsigned FA, is 73 runs away from 1500.

- Mike Smith, Mr Anonymous, is now #3 all time in HR's and is 20 away from 400.

- Geoffrey Williams, formerly of Memphis, is an unsigned FA.  Williams was a contender for MVP in 1990.  Williams looks to be taking the Will Lund career path, Lund by the way is still unsigned as well.

Re: 1993 Opening Day New and Notes CONTINUED

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Oh yeah, I forgot to Adam Coker too for Carolina.  Coker is also on their AAA team but he will start at DH.  The 42 year old Coker has been a full time EWB player since 1973 and has 2500+ hits.

Johnny Orker's 1993 Predictions

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

I'm an old school baseball man, I don't use no algorithms or fancy schmancy ratings system.  This is straight from a baseball man that used to watch Mickey Mantle in the old New York-Maine League.

Sunbelt
1) Miami
2) Carolina
3) Atlanta
4) New Orleans
5) Memphis

Plains
1) Omaha
2) KC
3) Denver
4) Chicago
5) Minneapolis

Mountain West
1) Washington
2) Las Vegas
3) Portland
4) Los Angeles

Colonial
1) New York
2) Washington DC
3) Philadelphia
4) Boston
5) Montreal

Ohio Valley
1) Cincinnati
2) St Louis
3) Pittsburgh
4) Indianapolis
5) Detroit
6) Cleveland

Texas
1) Austin
2) Dallas
3) Houston
4) El Paso
5) San Antonio

The Texas Division looks to be the most competitive and interesting.  Austin, Dallas, and Houston all look like they may be able to take it.  Plus El Paso could sneak in and be competitive too but they look a shade weaker.  1993 could shape to be quite an interesting year.  In contrast, the Mountain West looks to be the most boring, as Washington should dominate it as they have for 22 years.

Rule 5 Draftees In 1991-92 Offseason

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Taking a break from news and notes:

MIAMI
Miami Banditos: Lost SP J. Casey in the rule 5 draft to the Detroit Cruisers.

OMAHA
Omaha Wolverines: Lost 3B T. Kojima in the rule 5 draft to the Boston Irish.
Omaha Wolverines: Lost SP M. Morgan in the rule 5 draft to the Chicago Samurai.

James Casey was switched from SP to MR and is in the Detroit bullpen.  He had a good year in Little Rock but his ratings are pretty bad, 232 .5 star.  This doesn't bode well for Detroit if they are relying on Casey to fill a spot for the whole year.

Kojima will back up Justin Johnston at 1B and will play 2nd Utility IF.  Kojima can play a lot of positions in the IF well but has no power and K's a shitload.

Murray Morgan is listed as top MR slot in Chicago's bullpen.  Morgan isn't rated well but Omaha probably doesn't like the fact that he went to divisional rival Chicago and that they may have seen something in Morgan that MikeG and Shockey missed.

1993 Opening Day New and Notes CONTINUED

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

-  Whatever happened to the Philly OF?  Winman, Long, Morales.  Well now only Morales remains and at 23 years old is still a bonafide star in the making.  In fact look for him to have a breakout season.  Winman was of course traded to Memphis and Long was let go and signed by Dallas last season.  Long's demise is quite sad, at age 32 he looks to be on his last legs.  In fact he is now DHing and a considerable liability for Dallas considering his contract and production.  Philly signed Cliff Webb to play 1st and that should help the loss of offense resulting from the Winman trade.  Philly has a veteran pitching staff:  Luis Tejada (30, Solid), Julian Acuna (26,Acquired for Winman, Solid), Bruce Cochrane (36, may be over the hill), Jorge Hernandez (36), and Hector Escalante (32).  With 4 out of 5 starters in their 30's perhaps Philly felt the Acuna-Winman trade was necessary to take a pro-active move to getting younger SP.  The pitchers are all decent all the way down to number 5, if they perform well Philly could surprise, especially in a weakened division.  The bullpen is still weak.

-  Pete Rose loves the spunk Henry Winman brings to Memphis, saying that he remind him of himself.  One thing Rose may want to work with Winman on is stealing bases.  Winman has good speed but his judgment may be lacking as he was caught 22 times!  He stole 28 bases.  Winman is a great player and will help any team but Memphis is just really bad.  I can't see them competing with the likes of Miami, Carolina and Atlanta.  Memphis is one of the smallest market teams in the league.

- Speaking of Market size, me and MikeG were discussing on the phone the markets.  Here is a list:
Atlanta-VERY BIG=9
CAROLINA-BIG=8
MIAMI-BIG=8
MEMPHIS-SMALL=3
NEW ORLEANS=BELOW AVERAGE=4

CHICAGO=VERY BIG=9
OMAHA=BIG=8
KC=BIG=8
DENVER=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
MINNEAPOLIS=BELOW AVERAGE=4

WASHINGTON=BIG=8
LAS VEGAS=RATHER BIG=7
LOS ANGELES=BELOW AVERAGE=4
PORTLAND=BELOW AVERAGE=4

NEW YORK=HUGE=10
MONTREAL=RATHER BIG=7
DC=RATHER BIG=7
BOSTON=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
PHILADELPHIA=AVERAGE=5

DETROIT=VERY BIG=9
ST LOUIS=RATHER BIG=7
INDIANAPOLIS=RATHER BIG=7
CINCINNATI=RATHER BIG=7
CLEVELAND=AVERAGE=5
PITTSBURGH=SMALL=3

DALLAS=VERY BIG=9
EL PASO=VERY BIG=9
AUSTIN=RATHER BIG=7
SAN ANTONIO=SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE=6
HOUSTON=AVERAGE=5

These are not totally random but also not set by me.  These were set by whatever real MLB market the fictional team took over, for example the Detroit Cruisers took over the Cubs.  New York 5 Points took over the Mets.  However, they can also fluctuate too, except for humans which I manually keep at 8, which we agreed prior to the league.  Mike and I also discussed the possibility that if we ever wanted to increase our challenge then we could lower our Market Level.

- Back to Carolina.  The signing of Valentin is interesting.  One, Carlos Perez, who has twice in his career hit 50 or more HR, will back him up at 1st.  Perez is declining due to age but still very notable.  Robert Huot, last year's starter at 1st will be the 3rd backup in AAA Norfolk, quite a shitty demotion.  Joining Huot in AAA will be Gonzalo "Cougar" De la Torre who will be the backup 1B.  So the hell is the AAA starting 1B you ask?  Jesus Lopez, who was signed.  Lopez has an extensive EWB career, last year playing for Indianapolis and in 1991 for El Paso hit .258/27/98.  Carolina really wanted to make sure they had depth at 1B.  Their 3 AAA 1B all can make cases to start in EWB or at the very least be on a EWB roster.

-  Denver has slightly changed the roles for Cole and Escobido since Justin's email.  Cole will hit 2nd and Escobido 8th.  Vincent "Eager Beaver" Carter, known as one of the nicest gents in the league, took them both out for dinner upon their arrival in Denver.  Carter is excited about having Cole in front of him.  Behind Carter, hitting 4th, will be the Mexican, Juan Velazquez.  Velazquez is the 78th rated prospect.  Velazquez had quite an offseason in the Mexican League.  In 1992 he was traded from Memphis to DC.  DC seeing nothing in him released him at the end of the season.  Velazquez, motivated by the release, improved quite a bit and was signed by Denver.  While still one of the weakest 4 hitters in the league, he may bring a spark.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE................

1993 Opening Day News and Notes

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

Just Ramblings from looking through the league.

- The big news and headlines in Carolina are all about their new marquee signings.  However, their biggest move occurred months ago, specificall 7/30/1992.  That was the date they removed the albatross from their neck by trading Emilio Cabrera and $3.0 Million to hapless Montreal for disgruntled OF Luis Martinez.  Cabrera, two time MVP, was signed to an enormous 4 year deal at $10.48 million per year.  Cabrera suffered major injuries in 1990 and 1991 which restricted his playing time to about a half a season each year.  By 1992 Cabrera was half the player he used to be and in two years hadn't come close to providing Carolina anything near their $10 million dollar a year investment.  GM Robbie Johnson somehow swayed former Montreal GM Cedric Backman, now running the show in Cleveland, to take Cabrera.  Cabrera played utility OF for Montreal and looks to continue that role in 1993.  Carolina freed up a large amount of cash, signed some premier players, made some trades (Moore-Bicknell) and now look to be the contender they should be.  Carolina is a Big Market Team.

07-30-1992Was traded by the Carolina Colonials to the Montreal Knights, along with $3,000,000, in exchange for RF L. Martínez.

-  Montreal seems to be a favoured trading partner of humans, probably because of their susceptibility to getting fucked over.  New GM Joe Steines says that will all change.  There is reason to believe Steines.  The former Dallas GM and Executive of the Year has a World Series Title to his name.  Erasing the mistakes of the past will be hard.  One of the worst moves of former GM Cedric Backman was trading away Shannon "Interceptor" Townsend to Omaha.

06-29-1991Was traded by the Montreal Knights to the Omaha Wolverines, along with SP T. Merritt, SP R. Ortíz, in exchange for 3B J. Martinon, 1B C. Kilvington, MR A. Durán, MR C. Crus, MR K. Williams.

Especially now that Townsend is with divisional opponent New York.  The Townsend trade failed for Montreal.  Martinon has lost his prospect status and his starting position at 3B, he will be a utility IF for Montreal in 1993.  Kilvington is in AAA and ironically stuck behind Martinon.  Duran and Crus join former Wolverines John Roe and Leon Rosario to make up the Montreal Bullpen.  They're Ok but nothing special and are probably well below average.  Kenny Williams is in the Bandito minor league system, let go by Montreal.  Backman traded a young rising star, READY star for prospects and a few fillers.  Those prospects tanked and Montreal loses.  Recently Backman made the same type of trade, trading Frank Patterson for Bill Wright and Tommy Brown.  Both Brown and Wright are in AAA Columbus and may contribute this season.  Was the Townsend trade an aberration?  Will the Wright/Brown for Patterson trade pay off and absolve Backman?  Who knows, another interesting story line of 1993.

- Speaking of failed organizations, San Antonio hired GM Pablo Lara to take over.  Lara, former Chicago GM, has quite the task.  Low Budget, very few fans, small market, an owner placed manager who may have more sway over ownership than Lara; all of this will impede Lara's chances at turning it around.  1993 doesn't look like the year.  San Antonio has a patchwork team with little talent.  John Hennessy is the only bright spot on the roster and Hennessy can't do it alone. 

-  In other GM news, former Portland GM Tim Hill takes over the New Orleans Dukes.  New Orleans is seems to be an overachieving team in the last couple of years, relying mostly on strong pitching.   Playing in a ramped up division, New Orleans has two front line starters in Victor Pereira and Henry Wright.  However, after that they have a large drop off in SP and a relatively weak bullpen and closer.  Unless their offense performs significantly better New Orleans will struggle this year.  With Dave Page signed until 1996, for better of for worse, New Orleans needs to either build some core around him or trade him for prospects and cede this year.  Tim Hill is not one scared to pull a quick trigger.

- Tyrone "Skull Crusher" Taylor is projected to be the starting LF for New York in 1993 and has developed quite well.  He was involved in the trade for Patrick Cole, who has lost his starting job.  Taylor has a 4 contact, great speed, great defense, and a penchant for crushing opposing catcher's skulls.  A crowd favourite in the Big Apple.

MORE COMING, STAY TUNED...... Want to send before I erase it.

1993 NL GM'S

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

For Reference-Archive:

NY MAURO HERNANDEZ
BOS TAKUMA ENDO
PHI JOHN DENNIS
DC RON GARRISON
MON JOE STEINES

STL MICHAEL GOODMAN
IND GUILLERMO AYALA
PIT WAYNE GORDON
CLE CEDRIC BACKMAN
CIN DAN ALEXANDER
DET BILL JAMES

AUS TRAVIS GARNER
DAL KEN BRANCH
SA PABLO LARA
HOU AROGHETTO VALLONE
ELP DAVE BAKER

1993 AL GM's

October 21st, 2008 by Banditos GM

For Reference-Archive:

ATL JOSE BRUNO
CAR ROBBIE JOHNSON
MIA ROBM
MEM LOWELL ALLEN
NO  TIM HILL

CHI RAMIRO NAJCREA
OMA MIKEG
KC JUAN CARLOS RODRIGUEZ
MIN EGGHEAD
DEN STEPHEN WRIGHT

LA KWANG-SUB KIM
WAS JTT
POR RON MORSE
LV BRODY HARVEY

Re: Offseason

October 20th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

It is 3.5 million saving, that is a big difference for the same type of player. If I were to keep Ellis I would have not been able to do anything and by trading him I get a good young catcher, a good outfielder and a 5 star potential IF and I save 3.5 million and I got some good bench player so I think that was the better move.

Offseason

October 20th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. We're pretty happy to see Hoskins get a major league job.  He was an over-achiever with us, a guy who didn't have the greatest ratings but who consistently seemed to do well with teams.  That is, until his final year with Trenton, which wasn't that great.  I almost feel like Hoskins is an argument in favor of turning over your minor league staff periodically -- it will be more interesting to see how he does with Detroit than it would have been to see how he did with Trenton, if I'd retained him.

 

2. It's notable both that the AL Sunbelt added all these good players, and that the players are all departing from the NL Colonial.  Throw Gerald Lewis into the equation, and you see a major talent drop off in the Colonial division.

 

3. I saw that Mike signed Gerald Lewis.  Here's the thing.  If it was *finances* which prompted the Aaron Ellis trade in the first place, then it's hard to see how the financial situation has improved much, after the Lewis signing.  I mean, Lewis makes like $2.5M less than Ellis, but Omaha looked like they were going to be more over budget than that.  (Plus, Omaha has signed some other free agents as well.)  Lewis might be *better* than Ellis, and if so it was a good move.  But, financially, the two deals are close to being a wash.

 

4. Remember also that Carolina has Jamie Rees coming back from injury.  So, their pitching staff figures to improve by that alone.

 

5. Out of curisotiy, where did Murphy and Gordon sign?

Fw: WOW!!

October 20th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Rumour has it that at the Annual Washington Organizational Meeting young GM JTT and Hoskins got into an argument about the value of RBI's.  Hoskins, a staunch proponent of the new fangled sabermetrics, showed impudence towards his superior.  This is what caused him not to be re-signed.  However, he found an ally in new GM Bill James who also shares a similar philosophy.  James showing a high degree of confidence promoted Hoskins to manager of the Cruisers despite the fact that Hoskins has never managed above AA.

WOW!!

October 20th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Who did Bill James, new GM of Detroit, finally hire as manager?  None other than Bryant Hoskins.  Ring a bell?  Thought it would.  Mr. Hoskins managed the Trenton Captains in 1992, the Everett Petty Officers in 1991 and the Quebradillas Seamen in 1990.  What does THE Bill James see in Hoskins that Justin doesn't?  Very interesting.

Sunbelt

October 20th, 2008 by Banditos GM

JTT,
After you left,

Henry Winman got traded to Memphis!
Carolina signed Rafael Valentin and German Ortiz!  Can you say El Paso-1992?

I feel like the Sunbelt is in an Arms Race situation.  Although the pitching is nothing to brag about except for maybe Atlanta.

Re: Trade Proposals

October 19th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Overall if Cole didn't make 4.4 million I wouldn't care, but like I said if Denver wants to take his salary that's fine.

 

Re: Trade Proposals

October 19th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

First off I have no objection to the NY deal, but I don't think that deal with Denver, in my mind, is a good one. Oliver Cole sucks and makes a lot of money he is a career .260 hitter and for a guy with his ratings has vastly underperformed and how he makes the money he does is beyond me. He really has never had a solid year yes he hit 18 home runs one year and granted Denver is not much better on the infield they would be trading for a more expensive shitty player. Escobido is not that great either and I think the better deal would be Escobido for Davila. If Denver agrees I won't object just my observation.

Trade Proposals

October 19th, 2008 by Admirals GM

While I might shop players around to see what's available, my official plan is to make just 2 trade offers tonight.  I mention them here so I can provide the justifications...

 

1. To Denver, we send...

 

SS Oliver Cole

OF Ismael Escobido

 

And in exchange we get...

 

RP Mauro Medina

SP Aurelio Davila

 

There are permutations of this we are willing to consider as well, but the core of the deal is Cole on our side and Medina on theirs.  If Denver doesn't like the idea of giving up two pitchers, we could add a pitcher on our side, or explore other things.

 

JUSTIFICATION

 

Denver's offense is horrible, aside from Vincent Carter.  Cole and Escobido should both start for them, and could even be middle of the lineup batters, both.  Denver's corner OF's are both ranked worst (30th) in the entire league, and so Escobido and his .288/8/53/14 stat-line is an upgrade.  Cole would start at either SS or 3B, and Denver has already expressed an interest in him when I shopped Cole.  Last year, Cole had 15 HR and 66 RBIs; those numbers would both rank 2nd on Denver, behind just Carter, so there's a chance Cole would bat 5th or 6th for them (or maybe 2nd).

 

The main player I want from them is Medina, who projects to be my closer in 1993.  Denver's one team strength is relief pitching: they have the 4th ranked closer (Cris Rosario) and the 6th ranked middle relief.  With the presence of Rosario, Medina won't get a chance to close for the Amigos.  In addition, he's probably not even Denver's best set up man -- that's most likely Lawrence Davis, a 24 year old 11 pt. pitcher.  So, Medina is a luxury for them, and an expensive one at $1.8M.  Davila, even though he still has decent ratings (10 pt. pitcher), has been horrible the last 2 years, as Rob can attest: 5.23 ERA in 1991, and a 5.70 ERA in 1992.  There's a reasonable chance that if I acquired him, he would spend the entire year for me in AAA.  I add him to the deal in order to take on his salary, and to take an outside chance he can turn things around.

 

2. To New York, we send...

 

MR Felipe Lopez

 

And we get back

 

MR Ken Milligan (AAA)

 

Milligan is a former Admiral, and a player we like a lot.  We sent him to New York back in the Patrick Cole trade of 1991.  After playing well for the 5 Points down the stretch, and contributing a lot of innings during their playoff run to the Championship, Milligan spent all of 1992 in AAA.  We feel bad about this; we really do like Milligan, and want to see him have a career.  On the other hand, we hate Felipe Lopez.  We signed him last year to a significant free agent deal (he was a B-lister, so even the computer thought he was decent), and we hoped he might close if Carlos Hernandez struggled.  But Lopez was horrible this year for us.  His ratings are still solid, so there's a decent chance he will bounce back in 1993, but we really dislike him at this point.  For personality reasons, more than anything else, we want Lopez off our team.

 

Re: Trade thoughts

October 19th, 2008 by Admirals GM

I would have no objections.  In fact, if I were Portland I might do the trade even if Kenny Williams weren't included.

Re: Trade thoughts

October 19th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

I think that seems fair, but I can be swayed if Justin has an objection.

Trade thoughts

October 19th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Miguel Torres
Ben Stinson
Lou Bennett
Kenny Williams (Single A Closer Prospect 343 Potential)

FOR

Carl Morgan
Steve Page

1)  Since we are on the First day of FA a lot of computer teams have started to make their offers and finances are tight.  Portland is really tight anyway, so salary is a big issue.  To trade for Carl Morgan I have to free up some room for them.  I don't really want Steve "Red Beard" Page, however, to get Morgan I am wiling to eat his 5.2 million dollar contract for the next two years.  Page has dropped to a 2 star pitcher and is rated 234, and at age 31 doesn't look to be getting much better.

2)  Carl Morgan is a valuable player and we feel like we are giving up a premium to make this. 

-Stinson is 26 and also a 2 star pitcher with good stats, at worst case he'll simply replace Page at a fraction of the cost.  At best case he will be a solid #2 or #3 starter as he was for us in 1992.

- You guys are familiar with Torres and his abilities.  Depending on your view of what's more valuable, Torres isn't too far behind Morgan.  Torres has lots of power and a great eye.  He also plays good defense, as I remarked to Justin I couldn't believe how many times I saw him throw out runners.

- Lou Bennett is a bonafide closer, he will take on that role for Portland.  He was lights out for us this year.

- Kenny Williams is a decent prospect.  The inclusion of Williams was kind of a pendulum swinger to making the trade acceptable for the computer.

3)  The big issue for Portland in this trade is that it allows them to free up some salary space.  So in addition to making this trade, they may be able to dabble in the FA Market this offseason and help themselves improve even more.  We feel like in this offer we are giving up a lot, in fact I'm not so sure I would pull the trigger yet.  The biggest thing for me is the inclusion of Lou "Franchise" Bennett.  We hold Bennett in high regard but Portland is driving a tough bargain.  The other point is that I have to send players that can help Portland and really their weaknesses lie in pitching, their IF is pretty damn good.  So they are going to want some pitching.

THOUGHTS?

Staff Salaries

October 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Your staff consists of your manager, your trainer, and your various coaches across all organizational levels.

 

Here are the staff payrolls for a few teams, taken as a representative sample...

 

L.A.: $1.3M

Las Vegas: $2.7M

Indianapolis: $1.9M

Denver: $2.5M

Detroit: $1.9M

Cleveland: $1.7M

New York: $3M

 

I list New York last because they have the highest non-human payroll for staff, fitting their big market status.  So, what you see here are staff payrolls in the range of the mid one millions to the high 2 millions.

 

Now for us.

 

Omaha: $4.5M

Miami: $4.2M

Washington: $4.1M

 

As you can see, we have staff payrolls that are close to twice as big as the league average, and over a million dollars more than the highest non-human (New York).  Is this money well spent?  I can't say for sure, but I did think it was notable.

1992 Miami Banditos Team Awards Ceremony

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

November 15th, 1992

Miami, FL -  The 1992 Awards Ceremony was held at Prime 112 in Miami Beach.  The team held off the ceremony later in the year than usual, many players were still struggling with the ALCS loss.  Still the atmosphere was upbeat and high energy.  President and GM Rob M presided over the ceremony, while Johnny Orker once again provided the comedy and anecdotes of the season.

The following awards were presented:

Team MVP:  Ken Bryant - Although he missed much of the season, his explosive return came at a time when Miami was slipping out of contention.  Bryant kept up the intensity and production all the way through the playoffs.  His 2nd Team MVP Award.

SP of the Year:  George "Slider" Banks - Banks 3rd consecutive SP of the Year Award.  His contributions need no further explanation.

Bullpen Bandito of the Year:  Lou "Franchise" Bennett - Bennett took the Closer reigns without any hestitation and his sub 2.00 ERA kept Miami's lead time and time again.

Rookie of the Year:  Ryan Hinkle - Hinkle was thrown into the mix unexpectedly after Delzoppo's injury.  Hinkle was consistent and a dependable and solid #2 hole hitter all year.

Most Improved:  Anthony Pryor - The York, NE native hit .197 in 1991, in 1992 he hit .299 in a platoon role with Shunsho Yamada.  Pryor too took over unexpectedly for the injured Joe Young.

John Hayes Leadership Award:  Forest Thomas - Thomas wins the award for the 2nd year in a row.

Community Activism Award:  Tom Delzoppo -  Being injured all year Delzoppo took up the cause of saving the world.  Delzoppo known for his love of surfing and recreational drugs decided to start a recycling trend in the Polo Grounds Player Clubhouse.  Delzoppo spent hours before and after the game making handmade tin baskets.  He then persuaded teammates and personnel to throw different trash materials in the different tin baskets so they could be sent to recycling.  Delzoppo is cleaning the world one tin basket at a time, starting a worldwide trend.

Matt Egghead and the Mutiny

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

...Made a pretty good hire with Pepe Vargas.  At least if his Minors records mean anything, he's never coached in the majors.  Take a look though, very winning manager.

Re: NEWS

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

So is he Shockey's superior then?  Is he going to give Shockey the same free reign or be more on hands?  I think of Steve Stone as being a micro-manager, perhaps good for you as GM but a pain in the ass for his underlings.  By the way, I've often thought of adding Steve Stone as a manager to EWB but then I always forgot.

Even in the early 1990's I was a big advocate of him, as I believe we all were.  I am still kind of amazed nobody ever given him a shot at being a GM or Manager, especially considering that he's made it no secret that he desires such a role.

RE: NEWS

October 17th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Steve will be leaving his duties as color commentary for Wolverines baseball on Fox 42, and will leave an empty seat next to Harry Caray, his replacement will be named at a later date.

NEWS

October 17th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

The Omaha Wolverines would like to announce the new Vice President and Assistant GM of the Omaha Wolverines, Steve Stone. Steve is a welcomed addition to the Wolverine organization as he will be my right hand man and an evaluator of talent who will help Curt Shockey as he rebuilds the future of the Wolverines.

Aztecas Trivia

October 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

The San Antonio Aztecas have had exactly one winning season in their entire history.  Back in 1970, their first season of existence, they went 84-79.

 

Question: Who was the Aztecas manager during that 1970 season?

 

Hint: It's a big, big name.  But, this big name managed San Antonio for only 1 season before retiring due to age.  To this day, his 102-year-old corpse (as of 1992) is still somehow listed as being on the Aztecas coaching staff, if you check out their personnel page on the web.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

A couple of thing in response.

 

1. Yeah, I think the HR distribution among teams must be parasitic on the distribution among players.  I found it especially notable, though, that as I looked over the real life stats, the jump among low HR teams was much bigger than the jump among high HR teams.  The evidence here was much clearer and easier to see than was the evidence regarding players.  Now, you could take this as indirect evidence about players: presumably, the lower power teams have disproportionately more low power players, and so if that's where the power boost comes from mostly, you would expect the lower power teams to go up.

 

2. On reflection, I think you're probably right as far as pitchers.  What's most likely to happen is that everybody's ERA goes up.  It's not a sure thing, but if I had to bet, that's what I'd say.

 

3. The big unknown here is this: exactly how much statistical structure does the computer import from real life onto EWB?  Does it just do league averages?  Does it do distributions too?  You could have 2 different leagues where the average RPG in both is 4.0, but in the first league the scoring range is only from 4.2 (the league leader) to 3.8 (the worst), with everyone bunched in the middle.  Alternatively, you could have a 4.0 average where the distribution is all the way from 6.0 to 2.0.

 

As in 1 above, the question about distribution is probably more important regarding individual players instead of whole teams (the latter is probably just parasitic on the former).

 

But anyway, the question I don't know is whether the computer is sensitive to such things, whether it's just sensitive to averages, or what.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th by Banditos GM

Also, other thoughts:

1)  Regarding pitchers, the good pitcher stayed the same but you added a bunch of bad pitchers with expansion.  The immediate effect would be to raise the league ERA.  The league ERA rising isn't necessarily dependent on EVERY pitcher's ERA rising.  In fact, just dilute the pool with some more bad starters and it will have a chain effect:  quicker hooks, more relief, worse pool of reliever, bad pool of relievers relied upon more etc.  However, none of that effects Pedro or Clemens.
1A)  With regards to EWB, we have no expansion.  One of the choices we made early, for better of for worse, was to play a quasi-historical/fictional league.  Meaning it's completely fictional player, teams etc however dependent on historical results.  For example the totals.  The result is that we're somewhat bound to the causes/effects of real life even if they don't occur in our league.  So our "expansion" effect can't be explained by expansion but instead perhaps our creativity.

2)  In real life at that time, yes the good pitcher are valuable in a bigger pool of pitchers.  Think of inflation, say I have a piece of gold and it's worth $1 but then you add a bunch of dollars to circulation.  My gold, in terms of dollars, rises.  Think of Clemens as that piece of Gold.
2A)  In EWB, I'm apt to believe that opposite of real life, every pitcher's ERA will proportionately rise with the league cumulative ERA.  Should I think differently? 

Note:  Once we hit 2008 all this goes to the roadside since we are no longer historically bound to some degree.

Re: More Offense in 1993?

October 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Very informative, gracias.

Q1 - One thing to obviously note is the change of rosters.  If for example Omaha loses Ellis and we gain Valentin then yes your theory looks for sure to be correct.  However, pretend our rosters stayed exactly static, wouldn't it depend on the answer to question 2 regarding individual players and your answer?  By the way I tend to agree with your answer on Q2 intuitively with option 3.  In that case, teams with more of those type of players would raise their totals.

That leads to the question:  Why would expanded (weaker) pitching substantially help the less powerful hitters more so than the already established power hitters?  This would lead me to believer that option 1 and 2 are the more likely, if #3 is shown to be accurate than I would almost have to wonder if it's just variance (random).  But I still intuitively believe it would be #3, mainly because of the rise of players like mediocre SS's all of sudden hitting 18-25 HR when they used to hit 1-10.

But that is more to the real life question, as far as EWB which mirrors, then you're talking a whole different question.  In the case of EWB, I believe it will be equitably distributed.  For example if you're a 5 power hitter and you play 150 games you hit 42 HR in 150 games(+/- variance), if you are a 3 you hit 18 (+/-).  In 1993 the proportions will stay the same but the totals will rise, in other words the gap between 5 and 3 didn't change, nor will the gap between HR from 5 and HR from 3 the totals will not the proportion.  EWB is governed by the laws we set (ratings and totals), real life is not.  So ultimately we might reach the same end (totals) but in different ways.  EWB guided by ratings, MLB guided by whatever the answer to Question 2 is.

Make sense?  If so, congratulations because I'm not sure if I get what I am trying to say or rambling.

More Offense in 1993?

October 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

REAL LIFE

 

1. As we've discussed before, EWB tracks real life MLB thru the years in terms of offensive and pitching trends.  E.g., just as in real life there was a HR explosion in 1987 (the year of the "juiced ball" with Andre Dawson, Mark McGwire, and others), there was also an EWB HR explosion in 1987 (4 of the top 5 best HR seasons in EWB history took place in 1987).

 

2. In real life MLB, there was a major power boost from 1992 to 1993.  Why?  It wasn't steroids; not yet.  Rather, it was expansion: 1993 was the first season the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies.  With expansion, offensive totals shot way up in 1993.

 

3. Here's some documentation.  In 1992, the average NL team scored 3.88 runs per game; in 1993, they scored 4.49 (0.61 rpg increase).  In 1992, the average NL team hit 105.1 HR over the year; in 1993, they hit 139.7 HR on average.  (This isn't solely due to Colorado.  The 1993 Rockies weren't an especially powerful team -- Charlie Hayes led them with just 25 HR.)  Over in the AL, offensive figures rose as well.  In 1992, the average AL team scored 4.32 RPG; in 1993, they scored 4.71 (0.41 rpg increase).  In 1992, the average AL team hit 126.9 HR; in 1993, the number rose to 148.1.

 

4. Another way to document the point is by looking at the HR leaderboards from 1992 to 1993.  First, here's the NL top 5 in 1992: 1. McGriff 35, 2. Bonds 34, 3. Sheffield 33, 4. Daulton 27, 5. Hollins 27.  So the leader (McGriff) hit just 35 HR, and only 3 players in the entire league had more than 30.  Here's the leaderboard in 1993: 1. Bonds 46, 2. Justice 40, 3. Williams 38, 4. McGriff 37, 5. Gant 36.  So, 2 player reached 40, and every player in this top 5 had more HR than the leader (McGriff) had in 1992.  In the AL, the difference from one year to the next is less dramatic, but still noticeable.  1992: 1. Juan Gonzalez 43, 2. McGwire 42, 3. Fielder 35, 4. Belle 34, 5. Carter 34.  And then in 1993: 1. Gonzalez 46, 2. Griffey 45, 3. Thomas 41, 4. Belle 38, 5. Palmeiro 37.

 

5. I haven't had the time to try to actually prove this, but based on a quick scan of these and other numbers, my strong hunch is that the shift from 1992 to 1993 was the biggest *single season* inncrease in offense from one year to the next.  I mean, offenses continue to get better in 1994, and in 1995, and so on, for awhile, and 1998 offenses kick the ass of 1993 offenses.  But, the single biggest leap forward in this offensive revolution took place between 1992 and 1993.

 

Now, let me start to apply this to EWB

 

EWB

 

1. In 1992, the average AL team in EWB hit 129.1 HR, as compared to the number of 126.9 in real life.  That's pretty close.  The average AL team in EWB scored 4.38 RPG, as compared to 4.32 in real life.  Again, that's pretty close.  Finally, the AL home run leaderboard in 1992 was: 1. Picot 42, 2. Carter 35, 3. Hernandez 33, 4. Sims 33, 5. Torres 32.  Again, if you look at the AL real life leaderboard, that's pretty close.  So bottom line: EWB 1992 mirrored real life 1992 pretty well.

 

2. Therefore, I assume EWB 1993 will mirror real life EWB as well.  It's not obvious that this is right, but suppose that it is.  If so, you should expect your team to score about a half more run next year, and to hit about 30 more HR next year.  On the other hand, your pitching staff figures to give up about half more a run next year.  I emphasize that this is on average.  Individual teams might show more improvement, or less.  That leads me to my next question...

 

QUESTIONS

 

Q1. How will the increase in runs and home runs be "spread out"?  Let me explain what I mean.  In 1992, Omaha led the AL with 178 HR, while Miami was near the bottom (10th) with 121.  Suppose that these two teams combine to hit 60 more home runs in 1993.  How will these 60 HR be spread out?

 

Option #1: Each team hits exactly 30 more HR: Omaha hits 208, Miami hits 151.

Option #2: The home run increase is skewed toward Omaha, the more powerful team: Omaha hits 220 next year (increase of 42) while Miami hits 139 (increase of just 18). 

Option #3: The home run increase is skewed toward Miami, the less powerful team: Omaha hits 195 HR next year (increase of just 17), while Miami hits 164 (increase of 43).

 

A1.  There's no way to know for sure, but if EWB follows real life, it should be Option #3: skewed toward Miami.  Omaha should see their power numbers increase, but not as dramatically as Miami does.  The real life data... In 1992, 4 AL teams had less than 100 HR (Mil, Bos, KC, Cal).  In 1993, no AL team had fewer than 114 HR.  So, in real life, the low-power teams saw a big jump in HR.  In contrast, the 1992 AL HR team leader was Detroit with 182, while in 1993 the AL HR team leader was Texas with 181.  That is, the league leader actually saw a 1 HR decrease, even though the league-wide HR total went way up!  If this happened in EWB, Omaha would actually see their HR total drop next year, while everyone else in the AL saw it go up.  I doubt this will happen, but it suggests which way you should expect the HRs to be spread out, by team.

 

Q2: Similar question, but now for individual players.  Suppose HR totals do go up next year, where will the additional HRs be coming from, bigtime power hitters or low power weaklings?

 

Option #1: Everybody's HRs go up equally (let's say, by 4).  If Miguel Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 36 in 1993; if Ryan Hinkle hit 6 in 1992, he will hit 10 in 1993.

Option #2: The increase will be skewed toward the top power hitters.  If Miguel Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 40 in 1993; if Hinkle hit 6 in 1992, he will hit 8 in 1993.

Option #3: The increase will be skewed toward low power hitters.  If Torres hit 32 in 1992, he will hit 34 in 1993; if Hinkle it 6 in 1992, he will hit 12 in 1993.

 

A2:  This is even harder to say for certain.  If you look at the real life NL leaderboards, it tends to suggest option #2: the top players will see the biggest improvement.  Other data seems to suggest option #3 instead.  I'm not sure myself.  If I had to say which theory best fits real life, my hunch is to say it's closest to #3.  If you wanted me to predict what will happen in EWB, my hunch tells me #2.  That's all guessing though.

 

Q3: Given that offenses are about to explode, is it especially good right now to have a powerful offense?  Will that help your team win?  Or, given that everybody's offense is going up, is now the time when what really matters most is pitching?

 

A3: Again, hard to say for sure, but based on a casual look at the real life stats, I'm inclined to think that having a good offense during this period actually matters more than it used to.  I find that a little surprising: you might think that if everyone's offense has gone up, then offense itself is less valuable than it used to be (due to something like inflation), and so what you really want is pitching.  But, based on a quick glance at which teams won in 1993, it was the team with great offenses (like the '93 Philadelphia Phillies, and the Toronto Blue Jays), more than the teams with good pitching (like the '93 Houston Astros, who had the 2nd best ERA in the NL).  Toronto had the 2nd best offense in the AL, but only the 5th best pitching.  Philadelphia had the best offense in the NL (by a huge margin), but only the 6th best pitching.  The data is very limited, so don't trust it too much.  But, taking it with a grain of salt, what it says is to go out and make your offense better.  Worry less about pitching.

 

Q4: Any other trends to look for?

 

A4: I'm not sure; would have to think about it more.  Here are a couple, maybe, though.

 

In real life, as HRs went up, players started to steal less.  There's an obvious rationale for this: with so many home runs being hit, don't risk getting thrown out stealing, since a HR scores you regardless of whether you're on first or second.  If that's right, then we should expect EWB players to start to run less (as Rob has mentioned, it's been a very high SB league so far), and for players who can run (e.g., Roy Wilson) to have less value as time goes forward.

 

Here's one more thing to look for: the statistical gap between the best pitchers and the rest of pitchers to grow much larger.  Call this the "Pedro Martinez" effect.  It's connected to expansion in real life.  Remember how Pedro Martinez would post like a 1.70 ERA when the league average was like 4.75?  You should actually expect that sort of thing to happen when a league expands.  I'm not sure we'll see this trend in EWB, but if we do, it could make dominant starting pitchers even more valuable than they already are.  It would be unsurprising if, say, George Banks and Emilio Romano saw their own ERAs go down even as the league ERA rose, or at least if they saw their ERAs remain constant while everybody else's went up.  Here's another analogy: in 1991, Roger Clemens had a 2.65 ERA, while in 1998 it was 2.68.  At the same time, the ERA of the entire AL went up an entire run, from about 4.00 to 5.00, so Clemens was standing still even while everyone around him was getting worse.  Now, it may be that this was due to Clemens taking steroids, but this sort of thing is completely unsurprising, given expansion and other factors.  In general, regardless of steroids, you should see the very best starting pitchers stand out even more than they otherwise do.  I'm not at all sure that this trend will occur in EWB, but it would be interesting if it did.

Bill James

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

GM's have the same ratings as managers.  Except the only thing that matters is on the "Strategy Preferences" the OVERALL ROSTER STRATEGY.  This DOES NOT really matter for managers, because they'll have the team the GM provides.

OVERALL ROSTER STRATEGY for Bill James
On a 10 Pt Scale with 1 being LEFT and 10 being RIGHT
Favor Veterans/Prospects = 2 (meaning 1 being highest for Veterans and 10 being highest for Prospects)
Pitching/Hitting = 4
Defense/Offense = 9
Speed/Power = 8.5
AVG/OBP = 10

I didn't really know on some of these, like favor veterans/prospects, so I'm totally open to adjustments.  Really I just wanted him high on Power and OBP.  The others I just tried to make him not so normal.  As you know, very few managers and GMs in our league stray far from the middle, so I want to throw in some spice.

Another thought...

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Sorry to keep rattling off emails but just messing around so things are coming to me sporadically.  In one my emails I mentioned how splits are going to matter again.  I'm REALLY excited about this.  I love how it adds another dimension.

1) Lineups - All of us use the same lineup vs right or left because really it doesn't matter right now.  Most all players have the same ratings against both, the stats against either are most likely random.  In the upcoming years this will change, it could be a big difference if a guy hits contact 3 vs. Lefties and 2 vs. righties.  Look for much more platooning by both humans and computers.

2) Bullpen - Same thing.  I've never concerned myself too much with the arms.  Now that is going to be fundamentally important.  It will be important to have  a lefty setup and a righty.  It will be important  to have at least 2 lefties in the pen.  Also, as far as a closer goes, I'm not sure I would want a lefty (Lou Bennett is Left) just because the majority of hitters are righty.

3) Team Matchups - Some teams have murder rows of Lefties.  This will probably impact what pitchers you start, more so in playoff settings.

Bottom Line is that will add another layer of analytical thought for the GM's.  That's a good thing.

Re: Two Missed notes...

October 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM and Banditos GM

--Admirals GM--  I can't really tell from the webpage: are their character traits G.M.s have which determine what sorts of moves they make?  And if so, what character traits does Bill James have?

--Banditos GM-- 

GM's have the same ratings as managers.  Except the only thing that matters is on the "Strategy Preferences" the OVERALL ROSTER STRATEGY.  This DOES NOT really matter for managers, because they'll have the team the GM provides.

OVERALL ROSTER STRATEGY for Bill James
On a 10 Pt Scale with 1 being LEFT and 10 being RIGHT
Favor Veterans/Prospects = 2 (meaning 1 being highest for Veterans and 10 being highest for Prospects)
Pitching/Hitting = 4
Defense/Offense = 9
Speed/Power = 8.5
AVG/OBP = 10

I didn't really know on some of these, like favor veterans/prospects, so I'm totally open to adjustments.  Really I just wanted him high on Power and OBP.  The others I just tried to make him not so normal.  As you know, very few managers and GMs in our league stray far from the middle, so I want to throw in some spice.

Two Missed notes...

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

1)  Just to mention, this is Bill Wright's second consecutive Nebraska League Outstanding Pitcher Award.

2) Bill James was hired as GM of Detroit Cruisers.  It will be interesting to see who he hires as manager.  By the way John Schuerholz is also an available GM.

Recent Manager/GM Moves

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Some of the holes are filling:

Former Pittsburgh GM, Ramiro Najcrea, gets the Chicago Samurai GM position.

El Paso hires Esteban Mendoza to Manage the team.  He managed the AAA Las Vegas Octopuses in 1991 and '92.

Juan Cruz, long time manager and most recently Bench Coach in Omaha, gets the Bench Coach job in LA.  Good idea to put some experience with Matt Hammond.

New Orleans hires Marcos Quinones to manage team.  Spent last 3 years in AAA International League, most recently with the Buffalo Greens (AAA DEN).

Former Detroit GM, Mauro Hernandez, gets the BIG position as the NY GM.  Lots of money and lots of pressure, as Biggie says "mo money, mo problems."

1992 Minor League Awards

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Presented on the brand new ESPN2 after the Division II Field Lacrosse Quarterfinals.  Will be emceed by Ray Knight.

Lincoln Wolves win the AAA Pacific Coast League Championship.  Round of Applause.

Connecticut Sea Skull Pitcher Bret "River" Martin wins Outstanding Pitcher of the Year in AA Eastern League.  Round of Applause.

Ralston Rams win the Single A Nebraska League Championship.  Round of Applause.
Dundee Pitcher Bill Wright wins Outstanding Pitcher of the Year in the Nebraska League.  Round of Applause.

Human teams didn't do as well this year in the Minor League Awards ceremony.  By the way, If I remember correctly, we are letting Bret "River" Martin go to Minor League Free Agency.  We will demand he returns the hardware to Connecticut's Trophy Room.  Anything won in our system is property of the Miami Banditos.

Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason

October 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

A Quick Sketch of Miami's offseason plans and the 1993 Roster

1)  Starting Pitching - First Ray Stapylton WILL be a Bandito in 1993.  He is untouchable.  Of course Banks will be back.  This is one area where we will look to upgrade significantly.  Stinson is impressive but in somewhat of the same ship as Aranda:  good results, but still skeptical due to scouting reports.  Look for us to pursue one of these 3; Kevin Morris, Jesse Quick, Norman Banks.  Morris is our number one choice.  We are also willing to trade Stinson, Thomas or Camacho.  We believe the demand for Thomas and Camacho would be light but Stinson may be wanted.  We are also not ruling out a trade for a #2 or #3 type starter.

2)  Bullpen - Probably will be static, especially with the resigning of Whit Gaul.  We would love to go after Joe Murphy but the fact is that we have two talented relievers that are closer worthy in Bennett and Halter, and even Miles for that matter.  Murphy would disrupt a chemistry in our bullpen that we have vigorously tried to set up and defend.  Right now everybody but Miles seems happy with their roles.  If it ain't broke don't fix it.  Our bullpen is good and we have MANY young guys in the minors.

3)  Catcher -  If their were a FA worth pursuing this year we would consider it.  However, part of the reason for letting Hamilton go was to clear the spot for Jeff Hicks.  Granted he could bust, but we look to him to be our future at that spot for a while.

4)  Infield - Here's where it gets clogged for us.  Right now we have two 1B, Bryant and Rollins.  The other one will have to DH.  We believe Bryant is our Mr. Bandito kind of player and a fan favourite, he is also untouchable for now.  That means Rollins is available and we plan to use him as bait all offseason.  2B is similar.  I have Delzoppo and Hinkle, both of whom are for the most part stuck at 2nd due to defense.  I will consider one of them for a trade opportunity.  SS is a glut as well:  Joe Young, Anthony Pryor, and Shunsho Yamada.  One will be playing in Little Rock.  I like my depth there and have no real plans to upgrade unless the players fall apart.  3B is Michael Quint's right now with Pedro Castaneda going to play Utility IF.  If Quint can't hold down the job, we would be interested in seeing what's available.  But that would be next year, not this offseason.  Right now we have a lot of cogs that are expendable, we will explore our options.

5)  Outfield - Miguel Torres will be in RF and Carranza in LF.  Gavin James will not return in CF and Ernesto Hernandez is not better than Utiltity OF, at least at this point.  That being said, we look to make our biggest upgrade in CF.  No FA looks appealing so we are looking at the trade route, hence the inquiry into Carl Morgan.

Admirals on the Trading Block

October 16th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here's one more bit of information that I pass on now in order to make the Yugma session go faster once we get to it.

 

I will be entertaining the possibility of trading a good number of players this offseason, as my roster is overstocked in places.  Now, nobody on the list that follows belongs to a *must trade* category.  But, for any one of them, I would be willing to listen to offers.  The main thing I'll be looking for is pitching, especially relievers (could include closers, but doesn't have to), but also starters.  Maybe in some cases I would be willing to consider accepting prospects, but for the most part I would be looking for players who can contribute right away.  So, here's the question: are either of you interested in any of the following players?

 

RF: Mark Jackson.  (A .300/20HR guy when healthy, so I would be expecting a good deal in return.)

CF: Gerald Latham

CF: Roy Wilson (I'm much more likely to trade Latham, but would consider offers for Wilson)

3B: Patrick Cole (solid talent, and still young; but might be the odd man out for me)

IF: Porter Scott (39 years old, but still going strong)

SS: Oliver Cole (no way Mike could take on his salary, so this is just for Rob)

P: Doug Kelly

OF: Ismael Escobido (a very solid 4th OF, or respectable 3rd OF)

Looking Ahead to the Offseason

October 16th, 2008 by Admirals GM

The central issues for 3 teams...

 

1. Are the Omaha Wolverines going to be forced to cut payroll?  And if so, how much?  In 1992, Omaha had a payroll of around $38.7M, leaving them $1.2M over-budget.  This offseason, though, a number of key Wolverines figure to get dramatic pay raises thanks to arbitration: Ricardo Hernandez, Jimmy Garrett, Felix Rojas, Frank Gordon, and Tom Jordan.  Because of this, the payroll projects to skyrocket in 1993 to around $46.3M, nearly an $8M bump.  Even if owner Willie Theisen is a bit more generous with the budget this year, there's no way he'll be able to match that.  In addition, and not insignificantly, Omaha figures to have to add a new manager's salary this year (while still paying off Joe Torre in his severance package), adding to their already high staff payroll.

 

Each of the past 2 offseasons, the Wolverines signed the biggest free agent contracts in baseball: Paul Sims and Aaron Ellis prior to 1991, Emilio Romano and Jose Perez prior to 1992.  There's no way that happens again this year.  Rather, the question is what sorts of cuts they will need to make, if any.  As a way to dramatize their budget worries, suppose Omaha simply gave away Punk Perez, trading him to some other team for a single dollar.  Even after losing his $6.2M salary, Omaha would *still* need to make further cuts, if they want to be under-budget.

 

Omaha's payroll is like the George (H.W.) Bush economy, in that a huge percentage of the overall dollars go to a few upper class players at the top (Ellis, Romano, etc.), while the vast majority of players toil around making the minimum wage (for baseball players) of $185K.  One consequence of this is that when it comes time to slash payroll, there's no real way to do it other than to let one of those top-tier players go.  Because of this, and because I doubt they'll be willing to part with one of those top-tier players, I suspect that Omaha is just going to carry a budget defecit into 1993.  If so, there will be consequences.  For one thing, Omaha won't be able to sign any big name free agents this year, or even medium-name guys -- rather, they'll need to stick with scrub free agents.  For another thing, their ability to make trades will be hampered by their already being in the red, prior to any signings.  Finally, and more long term, some of the younger Wolverines are going to start becoming free agents in the years ahead, beginning with Orlando Diaz and Ricardo Hernandez after 1993.  Unless Omaha can free up some money, it's hard to see how they'll be able to keep those players.

 

Bottom Line: Omaha needs to figure out there long term financial plan, and then begin to act toward that plan, starting this offseason.

 

2. The Miami Banditos are in opposite circumstances.  Even taking into account arbitration and all of their own free agents (at least the ones they plan to keep), their budget projects to just $28M in 1993, meaning that they could spend over $15M/year in new salaries without going over-budget.  The problem is that this year's free agent class is underwhelming, by all accounts.  For months now, there have been rumors that Miami would pursue 1B Rafael Valentin.  The move continues to make sense, but it's far from a slam-dunk given that the Banditos already have two capable 1B in team MVP Ken Bryant and the emerging Coy Rollins.  If Valentin signs, one of those two will need to leave.  Along similar lines, Miami could puruse Boston 2B Gerald Lewis, also a new free agent.  But again, that would require further moves, given that Miami is already loaded at 2B.  Or, another way to get at the point: given Miami's present strengths at 1B and 2B, new free agent signings at these positions might mark an upgrade, but not a huge one.

 

So where is Miami weak?  Well, given that their own C Ken Hamilton figures to depart to free agency, catcher is one place where a new signing could make a big splash.  Problem: Who's the best C on the free agent market?  None other than Ken Hamilton.  Along similar lines, the one position where the free agent crop seems quite strong is closer, with Ned Gordon, Joe Murphy, and others going on the market.  But relief pitching is a great organizational strength for Miami, and if they weren't willing to pay Julio Perez big bucks last year, you doubt they'll be willing to shell them out for Murphy or Gordon this year.

 

Bottom line, then.  Miami has a lot of money to spend to upgrade their team, but it's not at all obvious that there is sufficient value in terms of players to justify spending all that money.  Maybe they could take on salaries through trades?  Or maybe they'll just stand pat and spend another season well under budget?  If so, they had better start worrying about rivals like Atlanta and Carolina.  The Sunbelt Division has been weak for years, allowing Miami to coast to division titles.  If Atlanta and Carolina continue to make a push toward improvement, it may be that Miami falls behind by standing still.

 

3. For Washington, the question is how much do you tinker with a team that just went to the World Series?  On offense, Washington is now overloaded with talent and position players.  For example, in the outfield alone they have Mike Robinson, Roy Wilson, Mark Jackson, Gerald Latham, and Artie Bicknell.  Those are 5 potential starters.  In addition, you can throw in Ismael Escobido, Jim Smith, and Mitchell Henderson as capable backups.  That's just too many outfielders to play.  On the infield, they have Dale Reinert, Daniel Smith, Oliver Cole, Patrick Cole, Porter Scott, and rookie-to-be Jose Garcia (the top prospect in the Admiral system, who will be major league ready in 1993).  Again, that's 6 starting-caliber players to be spread out among 4 positions.  Even if you include the DH spot, the Admirals have too many position players to fit into a lineup.

 

On the other side, their pitching staff is starting to look dangerously thin.  Sergio Garcia and Joe MacGregor were both quite good in 1992.  You have to doubt they'll be as effective in 1993, but set that aside -- that gives Washington two solid starters.  But who else?  There's Gustavo Chavez, who projects to be starter #3.  But he has never been consistent enough to spend the entire season in the rotation, he keeps bumping from the rotation to the bullpen and back.  2nd year player Antonio Aranda was exceptional in 1992 with a 3.23 ERA and several big time wins in the playoffs.  But scouts warn he's headed for a dramatic fall-off: he's listed as having only 6-point potential (8 point actual right now), which isn't even a marginal major leaguer.  Roger Wright is still around, but he was pretty bad this past year (an ERA barely below 5.00), and again, scouts say his talent has fallen off in recent years.  You can also throw in Jeff Blanchard, Doug Kelly, and (minor leaguer) Britt Murphy into the conversation, but none of them inspire confidence.

 

In short, Washington will have a hard time keeping the top starters' ERA in 1993 (which they had in 1992) by staying pat.  If they want to continue to have a top notch starting staff, they will probably have to make moves.

 

Shift to the bullpen, and you have even more troubles.  With the fall of Carlos Hernandez, it's clear that Washington has no true closer on their roster.  More generally, their bullpen ERA was pretty horrible this past year.  What do they do to address it?

 

So, given their strength on offense and potential weaknesses on the mound, the most logical thing to do is to try to trade hitting for pitching.  That's a hard thing to do, as teams are often reluctant to give up top notch hurlers.  We'll see how it works out.

 

 

Doug Slavin

October 16th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Doug Slavin retired.  In 1992 he managed the Greensboro Rippers of the South Atlantic League (A) to an 89-61 Record and took 2nd in the division after taking over in early 1992 season.

Slavin managed Washington from 1985 to 1991, making the playoffs 4 times and winning the 1989 World Series.  He finishes with a combined EWB and mL record of 1414-1393 record, .504 %, 6 playoffs, 1 Title.

Good Luck, Mr Slavin.

2 More Things

October 16th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. We'll see, but there's a good chance I won't be available for Yugma tonight.  I have to grade a big stack of tests.  It depends on whether I can get them done during the day, or (more likely) have to do most of them tonight.

 

2. As far as Karl Fox, I don't fully know what happened with him.  He was the last player that I personally drafted back in 1991, in the 15th round, before the computer took over the draft for me.  Notably, 1991 was the year when we as an organization drafted like 7 3B; most of those being picked after I gave control to the computer.  Of that huge 3B class, Fox wasn't the top prospect originally -- that honor belonged to Henry MacPherson, whom I took in the 7th round.  MacPherson put up better numbers than Fox in 1991, and continues to be a decent prospect (3-3 contact-power), but he clearly has been surpassed by Fox.

 

3. In one other bit of prospect news, our top pick in the 1992 draft (and #4 pick overall) was hotshot starting pitcher Jake Wilkinson.  Wilkinson was ranked as the #53 prospect in baseball before he even took the mound.  He ended up having a disastrous 1992 though.  On the one hand, he went 5-19 with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and just 58 K's in 146 IP in Rookie ball.  The only thing that saved him from 20 losses was that he suffered a few minor injuries along the way.  Worse, his potential nose-dived.  Rated as a potential 11-point pitcher at the time we drafted him (4-4-3), he's now just a 9 point potential pitcher (3-3-3).  This could be due to the injuries, but I doubt it -- his injuries have been comparatively minor, and he's never injured his arm.  I suspect it's just a re-evaluation.  For our one bad year, it would have been nice to get a future star with our first round draft pick.  Looks like that didn't happen.  BTW: Wilkinson's lack of development contributed directly to our manager and pitching coach not being retained for Quebradillas, and also to Chuck Tanner being moved from bench coach to Tacoma manager.  (Other considerations too, but Wilkinson was among them.)

Re: Commissioner Ballot

October 15th, 2008 by Wolverines GM, Banditos GM and Admirals GM

I might be persuaded by Larry Koenig, I kinda like it - Wolverines GM

I would support Koenig ahead of Kerrey. - Admirals GM

His credibility might be an issue. - Wolverines GM

In connection with credibility and other issues, if Koenig were to be elected, I would want any e-mails from the office of the commisioner to be filled with Koenig-isms.  - Admirals GM

This would be another "feat" of his that he could brag to his classes about.  In addition to his 50" vertical and his many state titles, he also ran the premier baseball league of the nation.  - Banditos GM

Q & A W/ Koenig

 

Q- What qualifies you to be COMMISIONER of EWB ?

 

A- Not only am I a history teacher in Ralston Nebraska I teach about the Kennedy assasination and the Vietnam War. In which I was involved in both. Also I was a multiple state basketball champion head coach.

 

Q- Really the Kennedy assasination, in Vietnam, and where were you a coach at?

 

A- That's not important   - Wolverines GM

Re: Commissioner Ballot

October 15th, 2008 by Admirals GM

But wait, does that make sense?  Even though we all voted for him, are we all satisfied with Kerrey?  I might be open to persuasion for someone else, personally.

Re: Commissioner Ballot

October 15th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

I gotta go to work here shortly, but it looks like Bob Kerrey was on all ballots and the highest.