Earl Weaver Baseball League

Re: 10/8/1992 Uploaded - Game 5 Wildcard Round

September 24th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Ours was a hell of a game, your classic 1-0 October pitching duel.  In the 8th, Bob Washington replaced Sergio Garcia (who had thrown only 93 pitches) with rookie Russell Ramsey, who preceded to walk two and give up a single, to load the bases with 1 out.  But Ramsey then struck out Romero and retired EWB-legend (minor legend, perhaps) Hoshi Kobayashi to get out of the inning.  Kelly had a 1-2-3 inning, no troubles there.  What's more, I'm not even sure I mind having Kelly close, or doing a closer-by-committee between Kelly and Cory Davidson.  But, I don't get why he brought in Kelly.  I don't think Davidson could've been tired, given that he only threw 6 pitches in his previous Save, but I could be wrong.

 

Anyway, the Hernandez meltdown in game 3 might have been a blessing.  Again, it occurred without us losing the game, and now in the 2 games since then we've needed our bullpen to hold 1-run leads: in Game 4, Davidson came in leading only 5-4 in the 9th; and in Game 5, both Ramsey and Kelly pitched with a 1-0 lead.  Probably a good thing that Hernandez wasn't our closer for these games.  Or, at the very least, there's no chance that Hernandez could've done better than these relievers, since these relievers didn't give up anything at all.

 

New York is hanging tough. 

10/8/1992 Uploaded - Game 5 Wildcard Round

September 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

-  Both Human games were quite exciting.  KC almost had a Bill Buckner moment.
Miami was down most of the game, not getting a great performance by Camacho.  Miami was able to tie it 4-4 in the top of the 7th.  In the bottom of the 8th KC had a big inning off of Joe Townsend who was one of the few non tired relievers.  KC had a run scoring double then a 2 run HR to go up 7-4.  In the top of the 9th here is how things proceeded:

Gavin James led off with a fly out to CF.  1 out.
Hinkle WALKS.
Carranza SINGLES
Torres WALKS
So now bases are loaded 1 out, down by 3, Coy Rollins up to bat.
Rollins hits a squibber down the 1st base line, easy out or possibly double play to end it....BUT NO KC 1B Carlton Hart fumbles the ball, Hinkle scores and everyone is safe.
Unfortunately for Miami it would end there.
Quint couldn't reach inside for another big hit and K's.
Yamada flys out.  Game OVER series is 3-2.

- Washington game had similar late inning tense moments which involved former Admiral Herman Thomas.

Possibly have more comments later after you guys see results.  Jack McKeon and GM Mullin are feeling heat about the decision to start Camacho.

Miami Playoff Notes

September 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

- Yes that was quite an exciting game we had against KC.  Michael Quint made quite the name for himself as a playoff hero having two big hits.  One frustrating situation:  Top of the 12th, we had just scored a run to go up by one.  We have bases loaded 0 outs.

Miguel Torres FC SS to home for the force out.  1 out
Coy Rollins K's
Quint K's

Bases loaded an 0 outs and we can't score? Fuck!  Needed some players with higher OBP in that situation!  Just kidding!

- Jesse Quick has returned from injury and will start for KC in Game 5.  Quick is an All Star calibre pitcher but has only one post-season year, 1982.  That was when he played for Las Vegas.  Quick is 0-3 with an 8.55 ERA in postseason.

- On the same note, Miami is going to NOT start the ready Banks and start Israel Camacho instead.  We have a 3-1 lead, we want Banks to lead off our next series.  We feel Camacho is good enough to get us the win, if he doesn't we'll come back with Banks up 3-2.  I feel comfortable with this decision.

- After this game, Ken Bryant returns.  Hip Hip Hooray!

Random Playoff Stats

September 23rd, 2008 by Banditos GM

- Only 3 players have 2 HR's in the playoffs:
1) Leo Kennedy - Kennedy has been surprisingly good.
2) Shannon Townsend - If only the Ortiz's could start hitting.
3)  Cooper Hunter - Pissed at his dis-acknowledgment for Angel Rosa

- Porter Scott has 8 hits which lead anyone in the playoffs, the next highest is 6.  Scott is showing his veteran leadership and "clutch" hitting.  Who said clutch didn't exist.  Meanwhile rookie Artie Bicknell has 1 hit in 12 AB for a .083 AVG.  Once again JTT's signing of Scott may have been his best move as GM.

- Antonio Molina of STL has the most SB with 4, followed by Roy Wilson with 3 and Gavin James with 3.  HOWEVER:  Of the 3 only Roy Wilson has a CS.  In fact he has 2.  Wilson:  Monster on the basepaths or Bob Washington menace?

-  Orlando Torres of Austin has been spectacular.  Hitting .545, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1.402 OPS.  Is anyone surprised with the Austin domination of New York?  Well yes, I am, to a degree.  Of course NY was the favorite but Austin has a HUGE lineup and if NY goes cold then Austin will win.  NY has gone cold, the Ortiz's are playing like it's spring training.

-  Unfortunately for both NY and Boston, I am going to declare GAME OVER.  Boston is clearly outmatched and NY has fallen too far behind.

- This brings up a St. Louis/Austin matchup.  Wow.  This will be interesting, the Marshalls are hot and the Savages are, well, playing like a 101 win team.  I still favor St. Louis.  In fact, I am going as far as saying they will win it all.  They are GOOD.  Let's face it Miami/Atlanta/Washington/KC is spoils for the NL. 

- I foresee a Washington/Miami ALCS.  How will this play out?
Lets do a generic position by position power rate. Margin from +3 to 0.
C - Washington +1.  Young Kennedy is ok but not too much better than perennial backup Stan Kirby.  Kennedy shows Kirby up in power and defense, other than that Kirby looks like the more consistent hitter.

1B - Washington +2.  Reinert vs. Rollins.  Caveat:  If they meet it will be the Healthy Ken Bryant.  Reinert has definitely had a better year, once again the power is the advantage but Rollins is close enough for the margin to be +1.

2B - Miami +2.  Hinkle, the rookie, looks much better than Daniel Smith with the exception, once again, of power.  Consider Smith had a .285 OBP! Hit .254 compared with .299, and 12.3 VORP compared to Hinkle's 32.4

SS - Washington/Miami 0.  Yes, Oliver Cole has no edge over Shunsho Yamada.  Look, Cole has put up the cumulative stats, but Yamada has been platooning and playing back up most of the year.  Yamada hits for a better AVG (.279/.256), better OBP (.334/.326) and better OPS (.719/.718).  Yamada trails Cole by a SLIGHT 18.4 to 16.0 in VORP.

TO BE CONTINUED

Playoff Notes

September 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. So, obviously Atlanta did their job by taking 1 of 2 in Da Vista Ga.  Our goal now has to be to take 2 of 3 in Atlanta.

 

2. Early goats: Joe MacGregor, who has a bit of a track record of post season struggles (1-3, 5.29 lifetime), and Roy Wilson, who got thrown out twice stealing 3rd in Game 2.  Both times, a subsequent batter doubled, meaning that if Wilson had stayed put he would've been driven in.  Obviously, we ended up losing by more than 2 runs; but, both caught stealings occurred early in the game, when the margin was still close.

 

3. Early heroes: Porter Scott, who's hitting the hell out of everything, and Leo Kennedy, who has a HR and a SB in the series.

 

**MOVE**

 

I want Antonio Aranda to start Game 3.  This isn't really a dramatic or panic-driven move, I meant to do this awhile ago, but forgot until I saw Chavez slated to pitch.  Aranda has been extremely consistent throughout the year, while Chavez has been very up and date, and most recently pretty down.  Chavez will start game 4, pending information on how tired Sergio Garcia is (if Garcia is well-rested, and we're behind 2-1, Garcia might pitch game 4).

 

That's all.

Re: Miami Banditos Playoff Notes

September 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

I'm inclined to say that playoff rosters should be locked in.  If there's an injury, you can place the injured player on the DL and then call someone else up to take his place, but that's all.

Miami Banditos Playoff Notes

September 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

Random Notes:

- The Banditos have their playoff rotation set:  Banks, Stapylton and Stinson.  We will monitor fatigue and decide at the time if we need to use a 4th starter.  If Banks is 80%+ recovered we will start him instead of a number 4.  If we need to go to a number 4 right now it is Forest Thomas but that could change.  Camacho will work out of the mop up role for now but may get a start during the playoffs.

- Michael Quint is off the DL and returns to 3B.  This moves Castaneda to Utility IF.  Yamada will be starting SS, since his platoon-mate Pryor is injured for 3 weeks.

- Bryant is due back in the ambiguous "1 week".  It always gives me pause when it lists it as 1-2 weeks or 1 week because sometimes 1 week does not equal 7 days.  We hope to god it is 7 days.

- Projecting the computer starters is tough for two reasons. 
   1) The computer does not use a strict order, it goes by start highest rested starter.  So it jumps around the rotation.

   2) The computer does not have the foresight to rest its top starters before playoffs.  Or in some cases it can't afford to because it's in a pennant race

- Miguel Torres has been moved to cleanup.  Because Bryant is out and because he's been hitting well lately.

- Miami is probably the only team to carry 3 catchers.  Jose Marquez has sucked for us and will never start but we like the potential power he has off the bench.  In reality I was thinking about dropping him to bring up a mL like Marcus Farmer to be a pinch runner and pinch hitter.  This may still be done.  But it raises a good question for us, are we locking our playoff rosters like real MLB?  Or can we still make call ups and demotions?

Playoff Injuries

September 21, 2008 by Banditos GM

Players on the DL and brief comments:

BOSTON

2b Gerald Lewis- Lewis has two weeks left to recover.  This injury was a late season injury because Lewis played in 151 games.  This injury concerns Boston because Lewis is one of the top 2b in the game, hit .281/14/64 this year, and he's a team leader playing with Boston since '87.  Lewis' replacement Jon Case is essentially a 28yr old mL lifer.

CF Jason Callahan- Callahan is out for 6 more months.  He played 122 games, hit .281/10/61.  This is a big injury for Boston as well when combined with the Xavier Saucedo injury.  Boston has been forced to shift Greg Stevens to CF who has a rating of 2.

CF Xavier Saucedo- Out for 7 months.  Saucedo was playing backup to Callahan.  Saucedo, while nothing special, is an experienced outfielder for Boston.

Boston's injuries are serious.  They have a gaping weakness now in their OF and at 2B.   If they can win without Lewis he may be able to rejoin them for the World Series.

AUSTIN

SS Norman Hopkins-  Hopkins is out for 2-3 weeks.  This is a big blow to Austin.  Hopkins is one of the better SS over the last couple of years.  Austin will shift 2B Orlando Torres to SS and move backup Clinton Geddes to 2B.  Geddes has good speed and defense but is a sore comparison to Hopkins' bat. 

Austin has enough offensive firepower that they should be able to overcome the loss of Hopkins.

NEW YORK

1B Kevin Adams- Adams is out 3-4 months.  Who???  NY fans have quickly forgotten about their former starting 1B, Adams, since the arrival of Shannon "Interceptor" Townsend.  Adams actually got off to a good start in 1992 before he was injured for most of it.  No one will hold their breath for Adam's return now.

MR Curt Hallamore- 4-5 weeks.  Hallamore is a decent MR who's been in a two year slump.  Even though the numbers aren't great, Hallamore is an important cog in the NY bullpen, but in all likelihood replaceable.

New York's injuries should have little impact on their playoff chances.

ST. LOUIS

St. Louis has nobody on the DL.  A nice way to end the season.

ATLANTA

SP Quentin Regush-  Regush only pitched in 6 games for Atlanta before being injured.  He is out 7months.  Regush made no large impact for Atlanta this season.  Atlanta has succeeded without him all year and this injury is a non factor.

WASHINGTON

CF Gerald "Rimfire" Latham
RF Mark Jackson
LF Mike Robinson

We all know the Admiral's story.  This is the team most impacted by injuries, their whole starting OF is on the DL!  The Admirals lost all players at different stages.  With the loss of Latham and Jackson, each time they were able to adjust and step up.  Robinson's injury may have been the breaking point.  It's too tough to recover from all these injuries.

MIAMI

C Ken Hamilton 2 weeks
2B Tom Delzoppo 7 weeks
SS Anthony Pryor 2 weeks
SS Joe Young 5 months
1B Ken Bryant 1 week

Although Miami hasn't gotten the press of the Admiral's injuries, it may have just as bad.  Hamilton's hurt but Miami went through most of the season without him and have done well with Stan Kirby.  Same with Delzoppo and Young, Miami's success was won without them so playoff problems are neglible.  Ken Bryant is an extremely difficult injury.  Bryant was injured for 3 months this season, his return fueled the sliding Banditos to come back and overtake Atlanta for 1st.  Now Bryant, the spark plug of the offense, is injured for a week.  He'll be back if the Banditos can win without him.  Pryor just hurts the already ailing IF depth.  Pryor has had a good year and were pissed to see him get hurt right before the playoffs.

KC

SP Jesse Quick- 5 days.  Quick, the FA pickup, returns in 5 days enough time to be a factor in the Miami series.  Quick is one of the best veteran pitchers in the league.  This is one of the few times where a team can look at the DL and be excited.  It's like a Christmas present for KC.

MR Millard Plumbly- 3 months.  Never has pitched an EWB pitch.  Total non factor.

SS Carlos Flores- 8 months.  Another big SS injury.  Hit .278/13/71.  Replaced by James Sheehan, who is hitting +.300.  Flores injury is tough but KC is capable of overcoming it with the high intensity offense.

CF Corey "Rocket" Moore- 2 weeks.  Moore is a prospect who played most of season in AAA.  He played as utility OF for KC and did quite well, hitting .370 in 39 games.  Moore will slightly hurt the depth of KC OF, however it will be neglible.  KC has one of the strongest OF and Moore would likely be used sparsely.

1992 Washington Admirals Official NL Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

MVP

 

1. German Ortiz, New York.  I think he deserves it on his stat line alone, even when team victory considerations are left out of it.  Bring in team victories, though, and it becomes a big lead, to my mind.

 

2. Tom Mills, St. Louis.  I believe in the significance of RBIs, and his high RBI total pushed him over some of the other contenders (Don Kelly, Dan Johnson) in my mind.

 

3. Dan Johnson, Cincinnati.  Here, the question was between Johnson and Kelly.  Johnson had a higher batting average, more RBIs, and more steals.  Kelly draws more walks, and this leads to a higher OBP and VORP.  But, as I've mentioned before, I think BBs are a little overrated in a middle of the lineup hitter.  Plus, it seemed to me like Cincinnati was in Wild Card contention more than El Paso ever was.

 

Comments: Did you notice that Kelly is no longer rated 5-5?  He's down to 4-5.  He still has 5-5 potential, but this is how it often goes with stars -- Forest Thomas still has 11 point potential, for instance, even though he's been an 8 point pitcher for years.  Is this the beginning of the end of the Kelly reign?  (To be fair, I suspect that Kelly will still win the Computer MVP vote, perhaps even by a wide margin.  That tells you he's still very, very good.)

 

Bob Gibson Award

 

1. Luis Altagracia, St. Louis.  A no-brainer.

 

2. Dan Morgan, St. Louis.  Again, to me a no-brainer as the #2 pick.

 

3. Royce Goodwin, Indianapolis.  Very low win total to get a vote (9), but so good otherwise.

 

Angel Rosa Award

 

1. Scott Laws, Cincinnati.  Tough call between him and Gonzalez.  I go with Laws because he had more wins, a better WHIP, and a better quality start percentage.

 

2. Miguel Gonzalez, Cincinnati.

 

3. Cooper Hunter, Austin.

 

Comments: Even aside from Laws and Gonzalez, Cincinnati seems to be putting together a very good young team.  Watch out for them in 1993.  One concern: payroll issues (they were $8M over budget in 1992).

 

Fireman of the Year

 

1. Gary Olson, New York.  Very close.  The raw number of saves has him earn my vote over Joe Murphy.

 

2. Joe Murphy, St. Louis.  Better than Olson in just about anything but Saves, but in saves there's too big a difference (50 vs. 42).  If the Admirals lose in the postseason due to a bullpen blowup, what are the odds they try to pursue free agents-to-be Murphy or Ned Gordon this offseason?

 

3. Logan Elmore, Detroit.  2nd straight impressive year.

 

Comment: We have a very strong crop of closers in the game right now.  Here, in my mind, is the elite tier: Punk Perez, Ned Gordon, Joe Murphy, and Frank Hearn.  (This leaves off Gary Olson, Stu MacNiter, and others.)  Question: if you could have one of those going forward, who would it be?

 

Manager of the Year

 

1. Francisco Vera, New York.  In this sort of award, you can either reward excellence (e.g., when Joe Torre wins it with the Yankees, or win Bobby Cox wins it with the Braves), or you can reward overachievement (e.g., when Joe Girardi wins it with the Marlins).  There wasn't much overachievement by any team in the NL this year.  So, you go with achievement, in which case Vera takes it in a landslide.

 

2. Alexis "Buckles" Stevens, St. Louis.  True, St. Louis was good in 1990, but you needed someone to get them *back* on track, and Stevens did it.

 

3. Ricardo Pancheco, Austin.  Wins it by default over Sparky Anderson, who had a down year with Boston even if they did make the playoffs again.

 

Executive of the Year

 

1. Ron Morse, New York.  Morse looked around at past World Series winners (e.g., the former Admirals' G.M., and Joe Steines formerly of Dallas), and realized that just because you won the thing doesn't guarantee you'll have career longevity.  So, he shook things up, took a lot of risks, and most of them paid off.  Again, I don't think it's very close.

 

2. Travis Garner, Austin.  Earns credit in 1992 for the moves he made back in 1991.

 

3. Michael Goodman, St. Louis.  Again, wins by default over the Irish G.M. Takuma Endo.  Has the rare privilege of getting the better of Ron Morse on a deal (the Doug Birch trade).

 

 

I'll wait to tally votes until I get Mike's ballot, and until I get the computer's ballot after the postseason.

1992 Washington Admirals Official AL Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

MVP

 

1. Mike Robinson, Admirals.  My impression is almost the opposite of Rob's.  Watching Robinson on a game-by-game basis, I felt like he was always contributing something big to our wins, especially during that crucial stretch in August right after Artie Bicknell went down.  But then, I looked at his overall season stats, and they were solid (more than solid, really), but not quite as high as I thought they would be.  Based on "feel," I would've thought Robinson would have like 30 HR and 110 RBI by the time he got injured.  At any rate, he gets my vote.

 

2. Vincen Carter, Denver.  What Rob said.  His low RBI total hurt his case a lot in my mind, but that's largely due to the anemic Amigo offense not putting runners on base for him.

 

3. Luis Carranza, Miami.  True, he faltered in the second half, but he by himself was responsible for Miami even being in contention prior to Ken Bryant's return.  If Carranza doesn't put up his monster first half, Miami is probably like 8 games back, and has no hope of making a 2nd half move

 

Comments: It's hard to justify not giving Caleb Lang any sort of vote.  He's the best hitter in the AL right now, and I think of him as a young Will Clark type.  But I would say this.  Lang gets punished a little in my mind for L.A. underachieving (in contrast to, say, Carter, who gets rewarded for Denver overachieving), and for the fact that L.A. had a number of other good offensive contributors, like say Tex Robinson (who had 99 RBI's) and Juan Freitas (who was good).  The players I voted all did more to *singlehandedly* carry their teams.

 

Bob Gibson Award

 

1. George Banks, Miami.  Given our voting, Banks has wrapped up his 4th Award, which ties him with Gizmo Delgado for most all time.

 

2. Victor Pereira, New Orleans.  Great stats.  Can he keep it going?  Right now, he's a 10 point actuial pitcher, but with only 9 point potential.  So room to worry this was a career year.

 

3. Joe MacGregor, Washington.  Sergio Garcia is better, but MacGregor gets credit for being more consistent and for staying healthy all year.  After his first season, he's making the free agent contract we signed him to look like a deal.

 

Comments: I was entertaining the idea of giving Punk Perez my #2 or #3 vote, but ultimately decided against it.

 

Angel Rosa Award

 

1. Kenneth Brown, Carolina.  In voting for any award, I don't think you should "project" statistics -- so, e.g., if Dale Reinert has 23 HR in 162 games, while Kenneth Brown has 21 HR in 90 games, Reinert gets more credit, in my book.  But even so, Brown's stats are just too good to pass over.

 

2. Dale Reinert, Washington.  Reinert was huge in June and July, and we needed it then.  But had a bad September, just while Kenneth Brown surged.  That cost him my own top vote.  Don't forget: Reinert didn't play a single ML game in April, spending the first month of the season in Tacoma.

 

3. Henry Wright, New Orleans.  The Dukes have a good young rotation going forward.

 

Comments: Even given his limited AL playing time, Clayton Jones was my #1 or #2 pick until his disastrous September.  Artie Bicknell used to be associated with Kenneth Brown, and now he's associated with Dale Reinert.  Would be interesting if Bicknell becomes the most important rookie, come playoff time.

 

Fireman of the Year

 

1. Julio Perez, Omaha.  Runaway winner.

 

2. Cris Rosario, Denver.  He and Perez were the two free agents Omaha pursued this past offseason.

 

3. Stu MacNiter, Minneapolis.  Has a real chance to become one of the best closers in the game.  Not quite there yet, though.

 

Comments: Carlos Hernandez would've been a sentimental pick, but I couldn't vote for him in good conscience.

 

Manager of the Year

 

1. Bob Washington, Washington.  I like to think B. Washington's past troubles dealing with injuries prepared him well for this year.

 

2. Jared Nolan, Atlanta.  Atlanta has no right, talent-wise, being in the playoffs.

 

3. Art Howe, Denver.  Denver has no right, talent-wise, getting close to the playoffs.

 

Executive of the Year

 

1. Me.  It's true; I'm pretty good.  In seriousness, one thing I would want to point out is how much *younger* the present Admirals team is than the one I had at the beginning of 1991.  That team was filled with veterans like George McFarland, Dave Tyler, and Roy Abbott.  Now we have rookies Dale Reinert and Artie Bicknell in the middle of our lineup; 2nd year players Leo Kennedy and Patrick Cole making solid contributions; and a bullpen full of rookies and 2nd year players (Cory Davidson, Russell Ramsey, Carlos Hernandez, Jeff Blanchard, etc.).  Going into this offseason, my hope is that even if we didn't make a single move, we would improve next year simply by virtue of these young players developing.

 

2. Juan Carlos Rodriguez, Kansas City.  Probably made even more moves than me, but gets downgraded a bit for having a team that only won 85 games.

 

3. Rob, Miami.  Again, the Joe Murphy trade looks great in retrospect.  Gets downgraded some for having inherited so much talent.

1992 Miami Banditos Official NL Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

MVP

1) German Ortiz, NY - Although Kelly leads in VORP, as usual, Ortiz put up the better statline.  Ortiz also played for the 107 win dominating 5 Points.  Ortiz has been good all year and to me this vote was easy.

2) Don Kelly, ELP - Kelly is the best but this is not a career vote.  At some point in time El Paso is going to have to become a contender again or Kelly will be like a Barry Bonds in SF.  Like Bonds, people are getting an anti-Kelly sentiment in the voting process.  Fair or not this is the reality.

3) Jose "The Bandit" Ortiz, NY - If not for being injured, J. Ortiz may have gotten the 1st place vote.  Remember Ortiz was a Bandito and was traded for Aurelio Davila (fuck me, idiot predecessors).

Notes: This vote was much easier than the AL.  There are a lot of good NL players but they definitely seem to order well in terms of MVP value.  I wanted to consider Dan Johnson but the Rebels weren't contenders and his statline wasn't good enough to overcome this.  Joe Warren was also given strong consideration.

BOB GIBSON AWARD

1) Luis Altagracia, STL - Wow.  Altagracia is one of the best SP in all of baseball.  The pitching of St. Louis was phenomenal and Altagracia was the leader, taking them to 101 wins.

2) Dan Morgan, STL - Same as Altagracia.  Dominating year, would likely win the award in most other years.

3) Blair Mitchell, CIN - A workhorse.  His ERA and WHIP numbers are much more telling than the W's.  Cincinnati was also much better than expected and Mitchell was a large part of this.

Notes:  Not many SP candidates and an easy vote.  Mitchell was slightly better than Rodgers and Rodriguez in my opinion.

ANGEL ROSA AWARD

1) Miguel Gonzalez, CIN - No brainer in a weak class.  Gonzalez's toughest competition comes from teammate Laws but Gonzalez has slightly better statistics.  Gonzalez also was more of a "name" prospect which helps him over Laws.

2) Scott Laws, CIN - Laws had a great year, just slightly less impressive than Gonzalez.  If this is the future of Cincy, then watch out!

3) Cooper Hunter, AUS - Playing OF for the 95 win pennant winner Austin is to his credit.  Hunter contributed to the success of Austin.  Despite not having overwhelming numbers he did what was needed and was consistent.

Notes:  Really weak class, especially compared to AL.  This will probably be an easy vote for most, though I could see Laws getting some 1st place votes and I could see Huff getting some 2nd or 3rd place votes.

FIREMAN OF THE YEAR

1) Joe Murphy, STL - The big question most voters in this category are going to have is Murphy or Olson.  I vote Murphy because he has a lower ERA, much higher K/9, better WHIP and better SV%.  Murphy also plays on a 100+ winner team.  Murphy is a great closer, combined with the dominant SP staff of St. Louis they are nearly unhittable.  Many look to St. Louis as favorites to win it all.

2) Gary Olson, NY - Olson had a great year, but he was only better than Murphy in number of saves.  Olson was an important factor for the 107 win NY team but so was Murphy for the 101 win STL team.  Olson is good, but only good enough for 2nd.

3) Logan Elmore, DET - Sometimes the easiest way to judge a closer is to see how well he does on a bad team.  Elmore definitely passes that test.  His numbers were great and you can probably be sure that most of his saves were not "easy" saves a la Carlos Hernandez.

Notes:  Ned Gordon is great but had a down year for his standards.  Don't think I could vote for Seymour and explained my Murphy over Olson rationale above.

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

1) Francisco Vera, NY - Vera put together an amazing season.  If you win 100+ games and dominate like NY you are going to win Manager of the Year in my book.  Handling the two Ortizs was a big responsibility as was handling the bullpen.  Vera excelled at both.

2) Alexis "Buckles" Stevens, STL - An amazing first year.  Stevens easygoing personality was in sharp contrast to the militant Hayden Anderson.  This played out on the field as the Savages were allowed to run buck wild all over.  The aggressiveness and fun was contagious and the Savages have gelled into a formidable, formidable team.

3) Sparky Anderson, BOS - 3rd place for keeping the train going.  Baseball is long and grueling and Boston has definitely suffered some tough losses in the past years.  Anderson every season gets his team regrouped and plays top of the line baseball.

Notes:  Pancheco just doesn't have the notable achievements that the above do.  Villalobo of Cincy should get some credit for improving Cincinnati and making them somewhat competitive.

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

1) Ron Morse, NY - Morse has put together the best team in baseball and should be awarded for it.  That's about as deep as I'm going to get in this vote.

2) Takuma Endo, BOS - Lifetime achievement respect with this vote.  Endo has done the city of Boston well.

3) Michael Goodman, STL - Solely for hiring Stevens.

Notes:  Not much to say other than I think Morse is an easy vote and should win hands down.

1992 Miami Banditos Official AL Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

MVP

1) Mike Robinson, WAS - This was a tough decision for me as my heart did not want to vote for Robinson but my mind told me I had to.  Let me explain, perhaps because I look at all the human boxscores Robinson never seemed overwhelmingly great this year except for periodic spurts.  On the other hand, someone like Ricardo Hernandez I was like "wow, this guy is really good."  The bottom line though is Robinson's numbers are undeniable and Washington was the best team, so I have to vote for him.

2) Caleb Lang, LA - Lang, in my opinion, is or will be the future star of the AL.  He is awesome and if LA had made the playoffs he most likely would have received my vote.

3) Vincent Carter, DEN - Carter puts up the numbers and carries the team singlehandedly.  He is also spectacular defensively.  I've said it before but it bears repeating, Carter is challenging Sherwood Johnston for all time best EWB player.

Notes:  My heart wanted to mention Ricardo Hernandez but the field is just too tough.  Like Lang, if Omaha had made the playoffs it would have helped him in my eyes.  Carranza was not worthy of a top 3 vote.  If the vote was held midseason then yes, but I felt he really slipped later in the season and our success is more attributable to the return of Ken Bryant.  By the way Miami and Bryant understand that a full season is needed for mention, but if anybody deserves to be on the ballot it is Bryant.  Also, Miami wants everyone to be clear that it does not consider Pitchers for the MVP.  We believe that MVP is a hitters award and the equally prestigous Bob Gibson Award is for Pitchers.

BOB GIBSON AWARD

1) George Banks, MIA - Justin, put it best:  Banks was Banks, once again.  George Banks is scarily good and consistent.  With his numbers and playing for a pennant winner, I can't see not voting him number one.

2) Joe MacGregor, WAS - This vote was a toss up between MacGregor and Pereira.  Pereira had the more impressive numbers by a good margin.  However, MacGregor was a large part of Washington's best record and I'm sorry to say sometimes a player gets penalized by the team performance.  If New Orleans had been better Pereira would have gotten this vote.

3) Victor Pereira, NO - Looks to be the real deal and will contend for this award in the future.  I was always disappointed when I saw NO start Pereira against us, he's a lights out pitcher.  If the award were based solely on numbers, Pereira may have challenged Banks for number one.

Notes:  Garcia was good but did lose some time to injury which hurt him, in addition he didn't seem as consistent as MacGregor.  Romano was a workhorse and will be a force to be reckoned with.  Surprisingly his biggest weakness was the inability of the powerhouse Wolverine offense to provide support.  Mark Smith should be nicknamed "Incognito" because he really flys under the radar but is good.  Even his name is generic.  Like the MVP/ Hitter distinction, a closer would really have to put a phenomenal showing and there be a weak class of SP for us to vote a reliever for the Bob Gibson.

ANGEL ROSA AWARD

1) Kenneth Brown, CAR - Brown played amazingly good in only 96 games.  In most cases a limited season would hurt a candidate, not in this instance.  Instead Brown was able to show how good he is by matching or exceeding most other rookie's stats with limited time.

2) Henry Wright, NO - Wright was simply the best rookie pitcher.  Some will put Clayton Jones here, but I penalize Jones for having split his stats between the AL and NL and his AL only stats aren't enough to put him into the top 3.  It seemed like Wright shut Miami down every time we played them.  Once again my personal experience against Wright is probably coloring my views but that's why this is the Miami ballot.

3) Jorge Hernandez, MEM - This was a close call between Hernadez and Reinert.  I chose Hernandez because he hit significantly more HR's and had a higher OPS.  Reinert had the lead in VORP, otherwise they were pretty close.

Notes:  This is the deepest category and I believe will have the most discrepancy in votes.  This voting was extremely tough, leaving players like Jones, Stapylton, Bicknell off is hard to do but is justified by the class.  As mentioned above Jones was hurt by spending time in the NL, this is what CC Sabathia is going to get hurt by.  Reinert was just inches away from being on the ballot, especially because of his impact to the injured Admirals.  Bicknell needed a full season, plus he played about the same amount of games as Brown and his numbers are weaker.  Ryan Hinkle was extremely valuable to us but in the stat line comparison game it's hard to justify him being better than some others.  Stapylton is another story.  Like Reinert he was barely on the edge for me.  I wanted to put him there but this just isn't going to be his year.  The middle relievers were great but it's hard to vote them over everyday players and starting pitchers.

FIREMAN AWARD

1) Julio "Punk" Perez, OMA - This was a no brainer.  Perez had one of the best closer years in recent history.  Omaha made an astute acquisition by bringing Perez in and without him they would have been signicantly worse.

2) Cris Rosario, DEN - Rosario has been a great reliever and keeps it going.  His SV% was the factor that put him ahead of MacNiter for me.

3) Stu MacNiter, MIN - Great stats, not much competition for 3rd place.

Notes:  Easiest category this year.  Perez will be unanimous and deservedly so.

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR

1) Art Howe, DEN - Howe does more with less than any other manager.  Howe had Denver playing strong all the way to the end.  This is also, in part, a career recognition vote because Howe really has been good for a while.

2) Bob Washington, WAS - No manager was thrown more shit his way.  With the amount of injuries that Washington had to deal with, he did great.  Not only finding the right player combinations and use of depth, but Washington also had to keep the train rolling.  B. Washington kept the morale up and kept the Admirals winning when everyone expected them to slip.  The playoffs will be a true test for Washington, without Robinson.

3) Jack McKeon, MIA - If Miami hadn't slipped in McKeon's first year I believe he would have had a much higher status.  McKeon, like Washington, was dealt an enormous amount of injuries and oversaw the development of numerable rookies.  McKeon took a young team and led them to a pennant with his laid back manner and his wealth of experience.  Good Job Jack!

Notes:  This was pretty straightforward to me.  Some may criticize Howe above Washington, or even Mckeon for that matter, but Howe did more with less than any other manager.  Caine was tempting but he had a lot of talent and the division was closer than it should have been.  Nolan too was admirable this year but basically met expectations, somebody had to finish 2nd in the less than competitive Sunbelt.  Nolan's Wildcard clinch was impressive though, keeping them playing well late and under pressure.

AL EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

1) Juan Carlos Rodriguez, KC - Other than Omaha, it seems KC is consistently the most active team.  Rodriguez has been building this team for years and some would say they have been underperforming in the last couple of years.  This year it looks as if they pulled it together and Rodriguez's moves are playing well.

2) Justin T., WAS - Bicknell, Scott, Reinert, MacGregor.  Those 4 names are testaments to GM JTT's baseball acumen.  Those 4 names are why the Admirals are the best in the AL.  The decision to put Rodriguez ahead of JTT was a tough one but was based on the belief that Rodriguez has just made a few more moves that contributed to his team than JTT.  It's really close but if next year the Admirals have similar success it will be difficult to deny JTT.

3) Rob M, MIA - The trades mentioned have a little factor, but the biggest factor for RobM getting the 3rd place vote was his development and implementation of his prospects.  Miami's farm system brought the following EWB impact players into Miami this season: Stapylton, Halter, Bennett, Hinkle, Quint, Rollins, Johnson and Castaneda (not sure if he should be counted among the successes).  The managing of prospects can be tough, ask MikeG about Randall Garner, so it's for this reason RobM gets the third place vote.  In addition though, he signed Yamada (contributor), signed Israel Camacho (pleased with him as #5 starter), traded for David Fields (excellent Defensive backup C, when I realized that opposing teams had a greenlight against Kirby and Marquez).

Notes:  In all Mike G is very worthy of mention but Omaha needs to be more successful before he gets credit.  Bruno's trade for Faulkner was great and getting the closers as well.  It was a tough decision between Bruno and RobM, but since RobM casts the vote it swayed the decision.

Interested in your guy's feedback if you have any.

1992 Omaha Wolverine NL Official Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Wolverines GM

NL

 

MVP

 

1) Ortiz NY

2) Altagracia STL

3) Mills STL

 

Gibson

 

1) Altagracia

2) Morgan STL

3) Rodgers AUS

 

Fireman

 

1) Murphy STL

2) Olson NY

3) Elmore DET

 

Manager

 

1) Pachecco AUS   15 game improvement from last year

2) Vera NY

3) Stevens STL

 

Executive

 

1) Goodman STL

2) Morse NY

3) Gardner AUS

 

Rosa

 

1) Laws CIN

2) Gonzalez CIN

3) Hunter AUS

1992 Omaha Wolverine AL Official Award Ballot

September 21st, 2008 by Wolverines GM

MVP

 

1) Robinson

2) Hernandez

3) Carranza

 

Gibson

 

1) Banks

2) MacGregor

3) Romano

 

Fireman

 

1) Perez

2) Hernandez

3) Rosario

 

Manager

 

1) Washington

2) Nolan

3) McKeon

 

Executive

 

1) Justin

2) Bruno

3) Rodriguez

AL ROSA

 

1) Brown

2) Hernandez

3) Reinert

1992 NL Angel Rosa Award Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

As opposed the AL, the NL is quite weak this year in candidates.

RF Cooper Hunter, AUS - .258/15/53 .732 OPS 23.2 VORP.  Hunter was solid as a rookie but this looks like the extent of his potential.  Playing for Pennant winner Austin helps his case, as Hunter played in 148 games and has a 23.2 VORP.  Hunter definitely contributed to the Marshall's cause.

2B Juan Carlos Perez, PHI - .287/5/47 .783 OPS 19.3 VORP 101 Games.  Perez was traded from Las Vegas, only played 5 games in LV, to Philly in June.  Not much to say, he played for a non contender, his position will probably help him as 2nd Base is valued.

LF Chris Huff, PHI - .251/12/52 .709 OPS 18.4 VORP 60 SB.  Huff may split some votes with teammate Perez.  Huff struck out a lot (100) but showed amazing baserunning prowess, stealing 60 and only 7 CS.  Chris Huff, 24, is the younger brother of Denver Amigo CF Chuck Huff, 27.  Chuck Huff has had a decent career too.

SP Miguel Gonzalez, CIN - 12-8 2.93, 1.93 OAVG.  Gonzalez is one of two Cincinnati SP Candidates.  Gonzalez was awesome this year.  His 1.93 OAVG led all of baseball, as did his 6.10 H/9.  Hitters can't touch Gonzalez and sure as hell can't hit him BUT they can be patient against him.  Gonzalez led all of baseball with 119 BB.  If Gonzalez ever improved his control he will be scary good.

SP Scott Laws, CIN - 15-5 2.97 33.2 VORP.  Laws led all rookie SP in wins.  Laws was never a highly rated prospect and this rookie year is a wonderful surprise for the Rebels.  The Rebels are building one of the best staffs in the league.  Laws makes a great case for an Angel Rosa with his wins and low ERA and 4th highest VORP among rookie SP.

1992 AL Angel Rosa Award Ballot

September 22nd, 2008 by Banditos GM

This year's AL Rookie class is by far the strongest we've had since we took over and probably about as good as it gets. 

1B Dale Reinert, WAS - .262/21/87 .801 OPS 33.7 VORP.  Reinert leads all rookie hitters in VORP, however trails others in AVG, HR, RBI and OPS.  Reinert looks to be potentially a solid 1B for Washington, think Marv Cartwright.  This season to Reinert's credit 1) he didn't get injured and 2) he hit well in lieu of his teammates injuries helping Washington  to the best record in the AL.

2B Ryan Hinkle, MIA - .299/6/71 .772 OPS 32.4 VORP.  Hinkle was expected to make his EWB debut this year.  Tom Delzoppo's injury opened an opportunity for Hinkle and he shined.  Hinkle is 2nd in VORP overall, he hit above .300 for most of the season.  His  numbers don't shine like the others but his impact on the Banditos success is notable.  Hinkle hit 2nd in the lineup most of the year and played great defense at 2B.  At one point every projected Miami starter IF was injured, Hinkle has stepped up the most as a replacement.

LF Kenneth Brown, CAR - .290/24/73 .849 OPS 30.8 VORP 96 Games.  Brown is a highly touted prospect and showed why in 1992.  First it must be noted that the stats Brown put up were done in little more than half of the season.  Once Brown was brought up from AAA Norfolk he showed phenomenal power.  Brown led all rookies in OPS by a large margin.  It's amazing to think that at one point he and Bicknell were on the same team.  Many in Carolina wonder if the Colonials screwed up by separating the Colossal Colonial Prospects.

RF Artie Bicknell, WAS - .307/7/69 .801 OPS 24.2 VORP 99 Games.  Bicknell, like Brown, only played 99 games but unlike Brown he was injured.  Washington showed a lot of confidence in the rookie, trading a top flight starter and naming Bicknell starter in the beginning of the season.  Bicknell responded hitting well but then getting injured.  Both Bicknell and Brown have a high amount of RBI's for the amount of playing time.  Bicknell is a longshot for the award due to his injury.

C Jorge Hernandez, MEM - .253/33/92 .814 OPS 24.9 VORP.  Hernandez wowed Razorback fans this year, who had nothing else to be wowed by, with his brute power.  Hernandez' 33 HR's and 92 RBI's led all rookies.  He was also 3rd in OPS.  Hernandez puts up a good case but may be hurt by playing for Memphis and being in such a strong rookie class.

C Howard Hammond, NO - .320/4/38 .819 OPS 15.2 VORP.  Hammond split the year between St. Louis and NO.  In July he was traded for Joe Rouse.  Hammond is the oldest rookie at age 27.  Hammond ranks 2nd in OPS, with a .399 OBP.  Hammond brings up the question of how much do we look at split league players.  This topic will be visited again with Clayton Jones.

SP Henry Wright, NO - 10-7 2.87 7.69 K/9.  Wright is the real deal.  He led all rookie starters in K/BB, BB/9.  New Orleans was in contention for most of the season before falling apart in August.  Wright was a huge part of that success, pitching great game after great game.  Was a 20th Round pick in 1989, rare late round pick that looks to be a star.

SP Clayton Jones, OMA - 14-10 2.97 7.77 K/9.  Positives:  Jones was 2nd in AL & NL in wins for a rookie with 14.  Jones pitched phenomenally for a competitive Omaha team.  His ERA is among the tops.  His K/9 leads all rookie SP.  Jones led all Rookie pitchers in VORP by a large margin, 48.0 to next highest 38.3.  Negatives:  Jones pitched 1/2 of the year in the NL with NY, this is a factor when determining the AL Angel Rosa winner.  Jones melted when it counted in September.  Omaha barely missed the playoffs, Jones going 1-3 6.54 ERA in Sept.  didn't not help the Wolverine Cause.

SP Ray Stapylton, MIA - 11-5 2.76 1.16 WHIP 34.4 VORP.  Stapylton came to Miami in early mid season.  Had he started in the beginning of the season he would be most likely the strongest candidate.  His 2.76 ERA is best among rookie SP, his 11 wins rank 4th in EWB, and his VORP is 3rd in EWB among rookie SP.  Stapylton has taken the 2nd slot behind Banks and excelled.  No way would the Banditos be where they are without the Stapylton call up.

MR Steve Halter, MIA - 8-4, 4 saves, 2.42 ERA, 8.66 K/9, 25.8 VORP.  Middle Relievers have to make a very, very strong case to be voted Angel Rosa.  Halter can make a case but it's probably not going to be strong enough.  However, one can easily argue that Halter was not only the best rookie reliever this year, but among the best in the league.

MR Lawrence Davis, DEN - 4-2, 3 saves, 2.73 ERA, .209 OAVG, 115.1 IP.  Davis finished 2nd in all baseball in IP without GS.  Denver relied heavily on the MR of Davis and it helped them contend for a playoff spot.  Davis was almost unhittable, holding opponents to .209.  Like Halter, Davis was one of the best in the league.

1992 NL Awards Ballot

September 21, 2008 by Admirals GM

NL MVP Candidates...
 
Don Kelly, RF, El Paso.  .317/32/81/23; 3rd in HR.  Also, 1st in OBP (.441), 3rd in SLUG (.545), 1st in VORP (89.7, leads all of EWB), 2nd in Runs (115), 2nd in BB (124).  El Paso finished tied for 2nd at 80-82, but were never a serious playoff contender all year long.  Comment: Kelly lost a little something this year, but even so remains the most dominant player in baseball statistically.
 
German Ortiz, RF, New York.  .318/34/106/18; 5th in BA, 2nd in HR; tied for 2nd in RBI.  Also, 2nd in SLUG (.551), 2nd in VORP (72.7), 1st in Runs (124), 4th in Hits (184).  New York finished 107-55, the best record in all of baseball.  Comment: may split the "New York Vote" with teammate Jose "The Bandit" Ortiz.
 
Rafael Valentin, 1B, Boston.  .271/38/99/2; 1st in HR.  Not ranked in any other stat of consequence.  Boston finished 2nd in their division at 88-74, good enough to win the Wild Card.  Note: cashing in during free agent year.
 
Tom Mills, LF, St. Louis.  .287/31/102/39; 5th in HR, 5th in RBI.  Also, 4th in Runs (109).  St. Louis finished 1st in their division at 101-61.  Comment: this is the 7th 30/30 season of Mills' career.  Slowly, he might be inching toward the Hall of Fame.
 
Jose "The Bandit" Ortiz, C, New York.  .334/15/81/12; 2nd in BA.  Also, 2nd in OBP (.434), 1st in SLUG (.557).  Again, New York finished 1st in all of EWB at 107-55.  Comment: a free agent signee away from division rival Boston.  Put up his stats despite missing time with injury.
 
Dan Johnson, 2B, Cincinnati.  .337/17/84/41; 1st in BA, tied for 5th in SB.  Also, 5th in OBP (.421), 3rd in VORP (70.2), 5th in Runs (103), 1st in Hits (207).  Cincinnati finished 2nd at 83-79, and contended for awhile for the Wild Card.  Comment: his VORP is higher than any AL player.
 
Keith Whitfield, LF, El Paso.  .320/21/85/7; 4th in BA.  Also, 3rd in OBP (.433), 5th in VORP (60.7).  Again, El Paso finished tied for 2nd at 80-82, but were never a serious playoff contender.  Comment: the reigning AL MVP.
 
Doug Birch, C, St. Louis.  .303/27/89/0.  Ranks 5th in SLUG (.517).  St. Louis finished 1st at 101-61.  Comment: the former New York catcher, he was traded to the Savages after the signing of Jose Ortiz.  Plays good defense, nailing almost 40% of opposing base runners.
 
Marv Cartwright, 1B, Indianapolis.  .282/31/96/6; 5th in HR.  Also, 2nd in Hits (189).  Indianapolis finished 3rd at 81-81, contending for the Wild Card for awhile.  Comment: I got nothing.
 
Orlando Torres, 2B/SS, Austin.  .289/23/104/10; 4th in RBI.  Not ranked in any other stat of consequence.  Austin finished 1st at 95-67.  Arguably, the top offensive contributor on the forgotten Marshals squad.
 
Joe Warren, CF, Austin.  .295/29/86/9.  3rd in Hits (185).  Austin finished 1st at 95-67.  Still cranking it out.
 
Luis Altagracia, SP, St. Louis.  21-7/2.13/159K/1.01 WHIP; 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 1st in WHIP.  Also, 2nd in CG (4), 2nd in IP (249.1), 1st in BB/9 (1.5), 1st in K/BB (3.88), 1st in Pitcher's Vorp (79.2).  St. Louis finished 101-61, first in their division.  Comment: a comeback year.
 
Dan Morgan, SP, St. Louis.  17-8/2.36/185 K/1.06 WHIP; 4th in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in WHIP.  Also, 3rd in IP (247.2), 2nd in Pitcher's VORP (72.7).  St. Louis finished 101-61.  Comment: teamed up with Altagracia to form the most dominant pitching duo in the league.
 
Gary Olson, CL, New York.  50 Saves/2.67/8.41 K per 9/ 1.21 WHIP/ 90.9 Save %.  Led league in Saves.  New York finished 107-55, best in the league.  Comment: first year as closer, after competing for Angel Rosa award last year as a set up man.
------
NL Bob Gibson Award
 
Luis Altagracia, SP, St. Louis.  21-7/2.13/159K/1.01 WHIP; 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 1st in WHIP.  Also, 2nd in CG (4), 2nd in IP (249.1), 1st in BB/9 (1.5), 1st in K/BB (3.88), 1st in Pitcher's Vorp (79.2).  St. Louis finished 101-61, first in their division.  Comment: a comeback year.
 
Dan Morgan, SP, St. Louis.  17-8/2.36/185 K/1.06 WHIP; 4th in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in WHIP.  Also, 3rd in IP (247.2), 2nd in Pitcher's VORP (72.7).  St. Louis finished 101-61.  Comment: teamed up with Altagracia to form the most dominant pitching duo in the league.
 
Gary Olson, CL, New York.  50 Saves/2.67/8.41 K per 9/ 1.21 WHIP/ 90.9 Save %.  Led league in Saves.  New York finished 107-55, best in the league.  Comment: first year as closer, after competing for Angel Rosa award last year as a set up man.
 
Royce Goodwin, SP, Indianapolis.  9-8/2.39/174K/1.07 WHIP; 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP.  Also, 3rd in Pitcher's VORP (55.2).  Indianapolis finished 81-81, 3rd in their division.  Just 23, he really emerged this year.
 
Roger Rodgers, SP, Austin.  18-5/2.88/97K/1.03 WHIP; 2nd in Wins.  Austin finished 95-67, good for 1st in their division.  His name sounds like a character out of the Airplane! movies.  I propose a nickname for him: "Rodger" (with a 'd').
 
Ricardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston.  18-7/3.26/181 K/1.09 WHIP; 2nd in Wins.  Not ranked in any other stat of significance.  Boston finished 88-74, good enough for a 2nd place Wild Card finish.  Quickly becoming one of the better starters in the game.
 
Luis Tejada, SP, Philadelphia.  16-9/2.95/173 Ks/1.20 WHIP; tied for 5th in Wins.  Also, 5th in IP (244.1), 4th in Pitcher's VORP (54.2).  Philadelphia finished 3rd in their division at 74-88.  The newly signed free agent didn't disapoint.
 
Blair Mitchell, SP, Cincinnati.  13-10/2.85/168/1.15 WHIP.  1st in IP (259.0), 5th in Pitcher's VORP (52.4).  Cincinnati finished 2nd at 83-79.  Newly acquired from Denver, he also emerged this year for the first time.
 
Ned Gordon, CL, Austin.  45 Saves/3.11/8.10 K per 9/1.10 WHIP/88.9 Save %.  2nd in saves.  Austin finished 1st at 95-67.  Free agent to be.
 
Joe Murphy, CL, St. Louis.  42 Saves/2.54/11.91 K per 9/1.15 WHIP/ 95.5 Save % (42-44).  St. Louis finished 1st at 101-61.  Eye-catching K per 9 and Save percentage numbers.
 
Logan Elmore, CL, Detroit.  40 Saves/1.99/7.53 K per 9/1.14 WHIP/88.9 Save %.  Detroit finished 5th at 74-88.  Elmore had an under-the-radar solid season.
----------------
NL Fireman of the Year Candidates...
 
Ned Gordon, CL, Austin.  45 Saves/3.11/8.10 K per 9/1.10 WHIP/88.9 Save %.  2nd in saves.  Austin finished 1st at 95-67.  Free agent to be.
 
Joe Murphy, CL, St. Louis.  42 Saves/2.54/11.91 K per 9/1.15 WHIP/ 95.5 Save % (42-44).  St. Louis finished 1st at 101-61.  Eye-catching K per 9 and Save percentage numbers.
 
Logan Elmore, CL, Detroit.  40 Saves/1.99/7.53 K per 9/1.14 WHIP/88.9 Save %.  Detroit finished 5th at 74-88.  Elmore had an under-the-radar solid season.
 
Gary Olson, CL, New York.  50 Saves/2.67/8.41 K per 9/ 1.21 WHIP/ 90.9 Save %.  Led league in Saves.  New York finished 107-55, best in the league.  Comment: first year as closer, after competing for Angel Rosa award last year as a set up man.

Eric Seymour, CL, San Antonio.  41 Saves/4.19/6.29 K per 9/1.52 WHIP/82.0 Save %.  4th in the league in Saves.  San Antonio finished 5th at 71-91.  Comment: kind of like the NL's Carlos Hernandez.
-----------------------
Manager of the Year Candidates (comment: given how none of the races were very close, I've restricted the candidates just to those teams appearing in the playoffs)...
 
Sparky Anderson, Boston.  Made the most-discussed managerial move of the entire season when he moved Frank "Mounds" Hearn out of his closer role into the starting rotation.  The results were fairly positive, as Hearn looked like an effective starter despite his lack of fatigue.  Still, he got moved back to Closer later.  Boston dropped from 94 wins and the division lead in 1991 to 88 wins and a 2nd place finish (but Wild Card berth) in 1992.  True, they lost a few players (like Jose "The Bandit" Ortiz), but they also gained a few, like Greg Stevens.  Hard to see how Anderson gets rewarded for this.  Note: Anderson's contract is set to expire this year.  Will Boston retain him?  If not, will Omaha or some other team seek him out?  (Anderson has a World Championship, and a reputation as one of the best manager's in the game.)
 
 Francisco Vera, New York.  Even though the 5 Points won the World Series in 1991, you shouldn't lose track of just how much they improved this year.  They went from 93-70 last year, making the Wild Card by the skin of their teeth (they had to win a play-in game vs. Pittsburgh) to 107-55 this year, running away with the division by 19 games.  It was a 14 game improvement.  No doubt, GM Ron Morse gets a lot of credit for adding new piece to the team, but Vera also gets a lot of credit for making the mix work.  Especially noteworthy is his development of younger players (including Clayton Jones, who was eventually traded to Omaha) and his handing off the closer duties to 2nd year man Gary Olson, even though Pablo Mejia was the big free agent signee and Antonio Lopez, last year's closer, was still on the roster.  1992 was the first time in their entire history that the 5 Points won the pennant.

 Alexis "Buckles" Stevens, St. Louis.  Stevens was a very controversial new hire this past offseason, replacing legend Hayden Anderson despite having only 1 year of minor league experience.  It's hard to disagree with the results though: Buckles led the Savages to a league-high 26 game improvement, going from 75-87 in 1991 to 101-61 in 1992.  (In fairness, though, remember that St. Louis won 96 games in 1990 and were just one win away from the World Series that year, so it's not like they came from nowhere.)  Stevens got a number of players to improve significantly in 1992, including starters Luis Altagracia and Dan Morgan and Raleigh Wormersley, newly acquired C Doug Birch, RF Phil Johnston, and others.  As Rob has remarked before, St. Louis took on a distinctive personality this year, fitting with the old Cardinal teams: they were based on speed and exceptional starting pitching.

Ricardo Pancheco, Austin.  Last year, in his first big league season, Pancheco got some grief for making the playoffs despite a losing, 80-82 record.  This year no one is going to argue with Pacheco's 15 game improvement to 95-67, though.  Pancheco oversaw the development of a number of players in 1992, including Jim Spencer, who looks to be a force for years to come.  To a large extent, though, the deal is like this... Austin acquired a bunch of good players back in the 1990-1991 offseason.  Because of this, they were the heavy favorites in the Texas Division in 1991.  They badly underperformed that year, but the division was weak enough that they still managed to win the division, despite going 80-82.  Well, this year they didn't underperform.  They lived up to the team they were supposed to be, and instead of going 80-82 they went 95-67.  Pancheco deserves credit for allowing them to become as good as they should be, instead of turning them into consistent underachievers.

 
-----
Executive of the Year (same restriction as in managers)
 
Takuma Endo, Boston.  Rare, Japanese baseball executive.  Most significant moves this past offseason were that he lost C Jose Ortiz to division rival New York, and signed free agent OF Greg Stevens, who had a solid first year with the Irish.  Again, though, the most significant fact about Boston 1992 seems to be that they won 6 last games than they did in 1991 (94 to 88), and failed to win their division for the first time since 1988.  The real challenge for Endo will be how does he go forward from here, with his team starting to age and players starting to become free agents?

 

Ron Morse, New York.  Instead of resting content with their World Championship team, Morse made lots and lots of moves this offseason and season, and those moves have generally paid off.  For one thing, he signed Jose Ortiz away from division rival Boston -- which strengthened his team while weakening his biggest rival.  He also traded for SPs Augusto Alocer and Chris Abreu from Carolina -- in two separate moves -- and each player posted a decent year for the 5 Points.  He acquired Shannon Townsend from Omaha, who put up a monster 2nd half (.366/19/65 in just 87 games with New York).  On the downside, the signing of reliever Pablo Mejia looks like a mistake, given that Gary Olson has taken over as closer; the trade of Doug Birch was necessitated given the signing of Jose Ortiz, but New York could have gotten better value for Birch, who was an MVP candidate in 1992; and the massive Chris Bradford contract, signed back in the winter of 1989, continues to loom over the franchise as an expensive mistake.  All in all, though, it's hard to doubt a G.M. who has put together a 107-win team.

 

Michael Goodman, St. Louis.  In his first year as the Savages' G.M., Goodman first made splashed by hiring the inexperienced Buckles Stevens.  That move obviously worked out brilliantly.  Next, after New York signed free agent catcher Jose Ortiz, Goodman was quick to call them up to pursue their old catcher Doug Birch.  He pulled off a big 5 player trade, which even New York G.M. Ron Morse will tell you that St. Louis got the better of: Birch was an All Star and even an MVP contender this year for the Savages.  As mentioned above, no team in all of EWB can match St. Louis's 26 game improvement this year, and their 101 win total would be amazing if not for New York's 107.  However, it must be acknowledged that though Goodman has made some nice moves in his first year, the Savages' core is still really due to their old G.M.

 

Travis Garner, Austin.  Most of Garner's moves really took place over a year ago, when he traded for SP Norman Banks (now a bona fide Ace), signed free agent Norman Hopkins, and made a couple of less bigtime moves.  He also has overseen the development of a number of Austin homegrown prospects.  Last year, Garner's moves didn't quite pan out as they figured to.  This year, they did.  And because of that, Austin ran away with the Texas division.

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Again, I don't know the rookies, so I'll wait for Rob on that.

1992 AL Awards Ballot

September 21, 2008 by Admirals GM

AL MVP Candidates, in no particular order.  I list first their basic stat line, then their rankings in other stats, then information about how they performed down the stretch, then their team record.  Finally, notes, if applicable.

 

Caleb Lang, 1B, Los Angeles.  .317/27/97/2; ranked 4th in BA, and 4th in RBI.  Also, 4th in OBP (.393), 3rd in SLUG (.528), 2nd in VORP (65.7), 2nd in runs (101), 3rd in Doubles (38), 1st in Hit-by-pitch (15).  Good down the stretch: about .330/9/38 in August/September.  Los Angeles finished 2nd in their division, at 81-81.  Notes: L.A. underachieved badly this year, but Lang helped carry them into Wild Card contention.

 

Mike Robinson, LF, Washington.  .320/21/91/34; ranked 3rd in BA.  Also, 1st in OBP (.423), 4th in SLUG (.514), 1st in VORP (67.5), 3rd in Runs (98), 5th in BB (92), 4th in IBB (15).  Good down the stretch: about .350/9/35 in August/September, prior to injury; won player of the month award in August.  Washington finished 1st in division, with best record in AL: 94-68.  Injured for last 2 weeks of season.  Notes: Robinson carried Washington's offense while other players were injured.

 

Luis Carranza, RF, Miami.  .326/14/95/9; ranked 2nd in BA, and 5th in RBI.  Also, 5th in VORP (49.1), 1st in Hits (211).  Good down the stretch: about .300/6/35 in September/August.  Miami finished 1st in division, with 2nd best record in AL: 92-70.  Carranza was the sole offensive force for Miami in the first part of the season, keeping them competitive until the 2nd half when they put the race away.

 

Ricardo Hernandez, DH, Omaha.  .341/21/77/2; 1st in BA.  Also, 2nd in Hits (205).  Good down the stretch: about .340/11/30 in August/September.  Omaha finished 3rd in division at 82-80.  Hernandez was especially a monster in September; you can't blame him for Omaha falling short.

 

Vincent Carter, C, Denver.  .298/35/81/1; 2nd in HR.  Also, 3rd in OBP (.399), 1st in SLUG (.555), 3rd in VORP (57.6), 4th in BB (92), 1st in IBB (20).  Amazing power down the stretch: like .300/16/34 in August/September.  Denver finished 2nd in their division at 84-78, 1 game back.  More than any other player on this list, Carter carries his offense singlehandedly.  Denver has no one else.

 

Dave Page, 1B, New Orleans.  .280/23/108/2; 1st in RBI.  Also, 2nd in OBP (.418), 4th in VORP (54.8), 1st in BB by a lot (133).  Okay down the stretch: about .260/7/38 in August/September.  New Orleans finished 4th in division at 76-87.  Like his whole team, Page faded quite a bit in the second half as compared to the first.

 

Clinton Picot, C, Minneapolis.  .260/42/90/1; 1st in HR.  Also, 2nd in SLUG (.528).  Minneapolis finished 4th in division at 80-82.  Arguably, the top power hitter in the game today.

 

Paul Sims, LF/1B, Kansas City.  .275/33/93/1; 4th in HR.  Not ranked in anything else.  Strong down the stretch: .270/15/34 in August/September.  Kansas City finished 1st in division at 85-77.  Kansas City's most feared slugger; I think of him as a Gary Sheffield/Albert Belle type.

 

Jesus Reyes, RF, Kansas City.  .296/27/100/5; 2nd in RBI.  Not ranked in anything else.  Down the stretch: .270/6/26.  Kansas City finished 1st in division at 85-77.  Kansas City's most consistent producer.

 

Joe MacGregor, SP, Washington.  18-8/2.96/140K/1.16 WHIP; tied for league lead in Wins, 5th in ERA, 5th in WHIP.  Washington finished 1st in division at 94-68.  MacGregor was the Admiral's most consistent starter throughout the year.

 

George Banks, SP, Miami.  18-7/2.42/181K/1.11 WHIP; tied for 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 5th in Ks, 4th in WHIP.  Also, 1st in Pitcher's VORP (59.6).  Miami finished 1st in division at 92-70.  Banks was Banks, once again.

 

Victor Pereira, SP, New Orleans.  18-11/2.62/148K/0.96 WHIP; tied for 1st in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP.  Also, 1st in IP (258.0), 3rd in CG (10), tied for 2nd in ShO (3), 2nd in Pitcher's VORP (54-0).  New Orleans finished 4th in division, 76-86.  Very underrated.

-----------------------

 

AL Bob Gibson Award Candidates

 

Joe MacGregor, SP, Washington.  18-8/2.96/140K/1.16 WHIP; tied for league lead in Wins, 5th in ERA, 5th in WHIP.  Washington finished 1st in division at 94-68.  MacGregor was the Admiral's most consistent starter throughout the year.

 

George Banks, SP, Miami.  18-7/2.42/181K/1.11 WHIP; tied for 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 5th in Ks, 4th in WHIP.  Also, 1st in Pitcher's VORP (59.6).  Miami finished 1st in division at 92-70.  Banks was Banks, once again.

 

Sergio Garcia, SP, Washington.  15-5/2.85/198K/1.16 WHIP; 3rd in ERA, 2nd in K's, 5th in WHIP.  Also, 1st in K/9 (9.2), 1st in Win % (.750).  Washington finished 1st in division at 94-68.  Final stat lines limited a bit because he missed some time due to injury.

 

Victor Pereira, SP, New Orleans.  18-11/2.62/148K/0.96 WHIP; tied for 1st in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP.  Also, 1st in IP (258.0), 3rd in CG (10), tied for 2nd in ShO (3), 2nd in Pitcher's VORP (54-0).  New Orleans finished 4th in division, 76-86.  Very underrated.

 

Mark Smith, SP, Denver.  18-9/3.05/140/1.25; tied for 1st in Wins.  Not ranked in anything else of consequence.  Denver finished 2nd at 84-78.  Pitching was Denver's strength, and Smith was their best starter.

 

Emilio Romano, SP, Omaha.  15-13/3.04/206/1.02 WHIP; 1st in K's, 2nd in WHIP.  Also, 1st in CG (12), 1st in ShO (4), 2nd in BB/9 (1.4), 3rd in K/9 (8.1), 1st by a lot in K/BB (5.72), 3rd in Pitcher's VORP (52.3).  Omaha finished 82-80.  In many ways, Romano had a dominating, dominating year.  Obviously, it didn't completely show up in his record though.

 

Shawn Price, SP, Chicago.  16-11/3.18/138K/1.17 WHIP; 5th in Wins.  Also, 5th in Pitcher's VORP (48.6).  Chicago finished 5th in their division at 74-88.  Price is 39, and only became a starter in his 30s.

 

Stu MacNiter, CL, Minneapolis.  41 Saves/2.33 ERA/7.49 K per 9/0.95 WHIP.  Tied for 1st in Saves.  Minneapolis finished 4th at 80-82.  MacNiter, just 24 years old, is a 14 point pitcher; he figures to be a good one for a long time to come.

 

Cris Rosario, CL, Denver.  41 Saves/2.41 ERA/6.75 K per 9/1.07 WHIP.  Tied for 1st in Saves.  Denver finished 2nd at 84-78.  Nothing much to add.

 

Julio Perez, CL, Miami.  36 Saves/0.85 ERA/8.24 K per 9/1.03 WHIP.  5th in Saves.  Omaha finished 82-80, 3rd place.  Obviously, the ERA stands out.

---------------------------

AL Fireman of the Year Candidates

 

Stu MacNiter, CL, Minneapolis.  41 Saves/2.33 ERA/7.49 K per 9/0.95 WHIP.  Tied for 1st in Saves.  41 out of 50 on Save opportunities, for a save % of 83.7%.  Minneapolis finished 4th at 80-82.  MacNiter, just 24 years old, is a 14 point pitcher; he figures to be a good one for a long time to come.

 

Cris Rosario, CL, Denver.  41 Saves/2.41 ERA/6.75 K per 9/1.07 WHIP.  Tied for 1st in Saves.  41 out of 46 on Save opportunities, for a save percentage of 89.1%.  Denver finished 2nd at 84-78.  Nothing much to add.

 

Julio Perez, CL, Miami.  36 Saves/0.85 ERA/8.24 K per 9/1.03 WHIP.  5th in Saves.  37 out of 38 on Save opportunities, for a Save percentage of 97.3%.  Omaha finished 82-80, 3rd place.  Obviously, the ERA stands out.  So too does the save percentage.

 

Mike Wynn, CL, Carolina.  39 Saves/2.98 ERA/6.92 K per 9/1.26 WHIP.  3rd in Saves.  39 out of 46 on Save opportunities, for a save percentage of 84.8%.  The reigning winner.

 

Carlos Hernandez, CL, Washington.  36 Saves/4.94 ERA/7.10 K per 9/1.55 WHIP.  4th in Saves.  36 out of 42 on Save opporunities for a save percentage of 87.8%.  Despite the horrible ERA and WHIP, he has a higher Save percentage than anyone besides Punk Perez and Chris Rosario.

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AL Manager of the Year Candidates

 

Jared Nolan, Atlanta.  After kicking around the minors for 20 years without special distinction, Nolan got his first EWB job this year and led the Confederates to the playoffs.  The team went 82-80 in 1991, and Nolan improved them to 87-75 this year, a 5 game improvement.  And he did this despite the fact that Atlanta has almost no discernible talent outside their bullpen.  (The offense ranks near last in most categories; the starters rank near the top, despite having very few pitchers with impressive ratings.)  During the pennant stretch, when Atlanta was faltering, he made the controversial move of replacing Roy Stinson at closer with the newly acquired Jovan Simic.  The move paid off, and Atlanta managed to avoid choking their playoff dreams away.  This will be the Confederates 1st playoff appearance since 1986, and just their 2nd since 1975.  If you compare Atlanta's actual record to their PYT, they get a +5 rating, meaning they won 5 more games than they "should" have.  This is tied for best in the AL.

 

Jack McKeon, Miami.  After leading the Banditos to an underachieving 76-86 record in 1991, McKeon turned things around in 1992.  Miami ended up with a 92-70 record, for a 16 game improvement, 2nd biggest in the league.  (In fairness, Miami did average 96.25 wins from 1987-1990, so 1991 really does look like an aberration.)  Especially to McKeon's credit is how he dealt with injuries this year.  The Banditos saw major injuries to each of their projected IF starters this year (including 1B Ken Bryant, the heart of the lineup), as well as C Ken Hamilton.  Because of this, McKeon was forced to play a lot of rookies.  Also, for the first time in a long while, Miami enterred the season without an established closer, and McKeon oversaw the smooth transition from Whit Gaul to Lou Bennett on that front.  The Banditos won 17 games exactly in each of the last 3 months of the season, making them the top AL team over that stretch.  When push-came-to-shove during the pennant race, nobody played better than Miami, and McKeon gets a lot of credit for that.

 

Roger Caine, Kansas City.  Now in his 5th season as manager of the Wheat Kings, Caine finally has a playoff appearance.  K.C. went from 78-84 in 1991 to 85-77 in 1992, a 7 game improvement.  Truth be told, though, Kansas City really does have a fair amount of talent, and their division title is due in no small part to the fact that the rest of their division isn't too great.  If there is credit to be given out here, I'm inclined to assign it to G.M. Juan Carlos Rodriguez rather than Caine.

 

Art Howe, Denver.  Simply put, Howe is one of the best managers in the game today.  After going 74-88 in 1991, Howe improved the Amigos to 84-78 and 1992, a 10 game improvement that saw them miss the playoffs by just 1 game.  And Howe accomplished depite having an offense that lacked any talent at all, with the one glaring exception of Vincent Carter.  If you look at the offensive stats, you'll see Denver ranks near the bottom in just about everything.  In connection with this, Denver was +5 in terms of difference between actual record and PYT, tied for best in the AL with Atlanta.  That's a good sign of a managing job well done.

 

Bob Washington, Washington.  In his first full season with the Admirals -- he took over midway in 1991, when Doug Slavin was fired -- Bob Washington led the team to the best record in the entire league at 94-68.  This marked a 23 game improvement over their 71-91 abomination in 1991, the biggest improvement in the whole league.  And Washington did this despite having a roster filled with rookies and first time starters -- like Leo Kennedy at C, Dale Reinert at DH, Patrick Cole at 3B, and Artie Bicknell in the OF -- and despite suffering a mind-numbing number of injuries.  As the Admirals head into the playoffs, they do not have a single one of their opening day starting outfielders on the active roster (Mike Robinson, Gerald Latham, and Mark Jackson are all injured).  Washington also managed to squeeze production out of unlikely sources: he got a great first 2 months of 1992 out of Will Lund, and got a great whole year out of Roy Wilson, who emerged from nowhere to become one of the top leadoff hitters in the game.  If there is a case to be made against Washington, it may be that (i) the Admirals underperformed in 1991, so the improvement in 1992 is a bit overstated; and (ii) he has a history of teams with injuries, so maybe the injuries are at least partly his own fault, rather than external obstacles he gets credit for overcoming.

-------------------

AL Executive of the Year

 

Rob M., Miami Banditos.  Made the controversial move of letting Punk Perez go this past offseason, but it didn't really cause Miami too many problems in 1992.  Saw something in Forest Thomas when the rest of the league thought he was all washed up.  Gets a lot of retroactive credit for the 1990 trade that sent Joe Murphy to Portland and brought present #2SP Ray Staplyton and 2B Roy Hinkle, who's competing for an Angel Rosa Award, to Miami.  (The trade also landed Orlando Gonzalez, but he's yet to make a Major League contribution.)  Got slugger Miguel Torres in exchange for Dong-min Kim, who appears to be slowing down in San Antonio -- so that looks like a good deal.  And he did this all on a minimal $32M budget, which involved playing a lot of rookies.  On the down side, the fact that Miami is actually $7M underbudget might actually count against him.  That's $7m they could have spent on a free agent -- Punk Perez, say, or Bob Wiederanders, or Keith Whitfield.  How much better poised would Miami be for playoff success this year if they had one of those players?

 

Jose Bruno, Atlanta Confederates.  Acquired SP Scott Faulkner from Portland in exchange for a pair of minor league prospects, and Faulkner was excellent as a #2SP: 8-4, 3.25 in his time in Atlanta.  Acquired veteran relievers Herman Thomas and Jovan Simic down the stretch run, a move which paid off bigtime when Simic was inserted as closer for a struggling Roy Stinson.  Controversially hired manager Jared Nolan this offseason, who had no track record of significant success, and yet Nolan led the team to the playoffs.  On the negative side, Bruno didn't do much to improve the Confederates offense, either during the offseason or during the season.  And that's their real team weakness.

 

Juan Carlos, Rodriguez, Kansas City Wheat Kings.  1992 was the season when Wheat King fans finally saw the payoffs for all the moves Rodriguez has been making the last couple seasons.  This includes his moving Reggie Phillips off the payroll to Chicago in 1990; acquiring slugger Paul Sims in 1991 from Omaha; acquiring staff ace George Wilson from Houston for a prospect in 1991; acquiring solid starting pitcher John Burke from Las Vegas in 1991 for a utility outfielder; converting flamethrower Alfonso Santana to a closer in 1992 for the first time in his career (at age 29); signing DH Carlton Hart to a free agent deal this past offseason; and trading for the still-solid utility man Roy Abbott in 1991 in a deal with Washington.  In short, it seems like just about every Wheat King of consequence on the entire roster was acquired by Juan Carlos Rodriguez in the last couple years.  The biggest negative against him is that, despite winning their division, K.C. did only win 85 games this year, meaning that despite all these changes, they needed the good fortune of a weak division in order to cash in.

 

Mike G., Omaha Wolverines.  The number of moves made by the Omaha G.M. is truly overwhelming.  Instead of trying to recount them here, it's enough to say that just about every Wolverine who was a significant contributor in 1992 was acquired in some shape or form since 1990.  The improvement the last few years has been dramatic: from 57-105 in 1990, to 70-92 in 1991, to 82-80 in 1992, where that 82-80 record was good enough to compete for a playoff spot down until the final week of the season.  The biggest question here is do you reward the Omaha G.M. now, when his team hasn't even made the playoffs yet?  Or do you wait?

 

Justin T., Washington Admirals.  After struggling in his first few years -- including the disastrous 71-91 season last year -- the Admirals G.M. really turned things around in 1992.  The most significant moves include sticking with Mike Robinson rather than trying to trade him; singling out Joe MacGregor as the free agent SP to pursue last offseason; integrating a host of young players into the lineup, including Artie Bicknell, Dale Reinert, Patrick Cole, and Leo Kennedy; making a shrewd, below-market offer for veteran Porter Scott, who was starting to panic and worry that no team would come calling; and acquiring enough depth and bit players that the Admirals were able to stay afloat in 1992, even as they suffered massive injuries.  The case against focuses on the following points: (i) he didn't really do much to strengthen the bullpen, even though that stood out as the team's primary weakness in 1991; it might not have cost him much during the regular season, but will it in the postseason?; and (ii) he kept the team trainer, even when it was clear that there were problems early on in 1992; if drastic action had been taken, and a new trainer had been hired in say June, would the Mike Robinson injury still have taken place?

 

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Rookie of the Year

Don't have an easily accessible list, so I'll defer to Rob on that.

Johnny Orker's Playoff Power Rankings: Closers

September 21, 2008 by Banditos GM

Here is my personal opinion of the strength of the playoff teams by Closer:

1) Ned Gordon, Austin-  This spot is almost a toss up between Gordon and Hearn.  Gordon gets the mark.  He is scarily consistent and at age 28 hitting his peak.

2) Frank "Mounds" Hearn, Boston- Hearn has the wickedest stuff in baseball with master control.  Hearn is the ideal closer and will help Boston in the late innings.

3) Joe Murphy, St. Louis-  Ever since Murphy became a closer in Portland and then in St. Louis he has been excellent.  Murphy is a K king.  Opponents are hitting a horrid .159 against Murphy.

4) Gary Olson, NY-  Olson falls to 4th despite leading baseball in saves with 50.  This is due to Olson's relative inexperience.  This is his 1st year as a closer and saving 50 games for a team that wins 107 is commendable but not overly impressive.  With a 90-92 mph fastball and a weakness with movement Olson also doesn't intimidate like the others.

5) Jovan Simic, Atlanta- Simic took over the closing role for Atlanta late in the season, but the 39 yr old is no rookie.  He's a journeyman with several years as a closer.  His experience gives him an advantage a puts him higher on the list.

6) Lou "Franchise" Bennett, Miami-  Bennett took over the closing role from Whit Gaul.  Miami was stung by the loss of Punk Perez but looks to have finally found a solution.  Bennett in his first real year has been amazing, 20 saves and a sub 2.00 ERA.  Bennett, however, is still untested.  He also may be playing above his head, as most scouts did not have him on par with the above mentioned closers.

7) Alfonso Santana, KC- Santana is also in his 1st year as a closer after many years of coming out of the bullpen.  Santana has been reliable for KC but not extraordinary.  He has a +3.00 ERA, scouts rate him as mediocre in all categories.  Think of him as a Kevin Gregg.

8) Carlos Hernandez, Washington- Hernandez with an ERA nearing 5.00 would have been replaced by almost any other organization.  Washington has stuck by him pointing out that he does not have many BS and his runs given up are largely irrelevant.  Washington also lacks any definite replacement candidate.  Lopez has blown up and Davidson looks to be more of a set up man.  Perhaps during the playoffs we'll see Gustavo Chavez more in relief, a conversion may be imminent.

Kingsport Inferno: Your 1992 Appalachian League Champions!

September 21, 2008 by Banditos GM

The Kingsport Inferno are the 1992 Champions of the Appalachian League (R)!!!! Round of Applause.

The Inferno are a R affiliate of the New York 5 Points.  The Inferno earned their first pennant ever this year finishing 1st in the West Division with an 86-76 Record.  They also earned their first playoff spot ever!

In the Championship they faced the 111-51 Danville Samurai (Boston Irish) and upset them in 5 games (4-1).

Is this a precursor to NY over Boston???  Time will tell.

Irony:  The Kingsport Inferno are managed by former player Tomas "Matchbox" Perez.  The press in Kingsport, Tennessee jumped all over this, using numerous wordplay variations on "Matchbox" and "Inferno."

Kingsport:  Kingsport is in the northeast part of Tennessee, in an area called "the mountain empire."  Kingsport has about 44,000 people and is mostly all white.  I imagine kinda hillbilly-ish but I could be wrong.  However, they are known for publicly hanging an elephant in the early 1900's.  see below.

On September 12, 1916, Kingsport residents demanded the death of circus elephant Mary (a five ton Asian elephant who performed in the Sparks World Famous Shows Circus) for her killing of a city hotel worker named Walter "Red" Eldridge, who was hired the day before as an assistant elephant trainer by the circus.

On the evening of September 12, Eldridge was killed by Mary in Kingsport, Tennessee while taking her to a nearby pond to splash and frolic and drink. There are several accounts of his death but the most widely accepted version is that he prodded her behind the ear with a hook after she reached down to nibble on a watermelon rind. She went into a rage, snatched Eldridge with her trunk, threw him against a drink stand and deliberately stepped on his head, crushing it. One of his ears was never found.

The details of the aftermath are confused in a haze of sensationalist newspaper stories and folklore. Most accounts indicate that she calmed down afterward and didn't charge the onlookers, who were chanting, "Kill the elephant!" Apparently, within minutes, a local blacksmith tried to oblige, firing more than two dozen rounds at the elephant with little effect. Newspapers published claims that Murderous Mary had killed several workers in the past and noted that she was larger than the world famous Jumbo the elephant. Mary was impounded by the local sheriff, and the leaders of several nearby towns threatened not to allow the circus to visit if Mary was included. The circus owner, Charlie Sparks, reluctantly decided that the only way to quickly resolve the potentially ruinous situation was to hold a public execution. On the following day, a foggy and rainy September 13, 1916, she was transported by rail to Erwin, Tennessee where a crowd of over 2,500 people (including most of the town's children) assembled in the Clinchfield railroad yard to watch the hanging.

Re: Relievers IP

September 19th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Related to this, here are some interesting facts about how Bob Washington uses his bullpen...

 

 

Set up man Felipe Lopez (free agent signee), has pitched exactly 1 IP in 1 G since 8/9 -- about a month and a half.  He has not been injured during that stretch, and it's not like we've had 23 pitchers on the roster with September call ups, or anything like that.  Lopez pitched quite a bit out of his setup role earlier in the year.  Clearly, though, Washington has lost faith in them.  (BTW: this makes Lopez unhappy.)

 

Our other setup man, Cory Davidson, regularly pitches 3 times a week or so.  And he's effective: 2.38 ERA.

 

Doug Kelly has pitched only 2 games (2.2 IP) in the last month, since being demoted from the starting rotation.  Again, he hasn't been injured.  Kelly is still listed as an MR; Washington just doesn't want to use him.

 

By contrast, Russell Ramsey pitched in 10 August games, and he's already pitched in 8 September games.  Washington loves him.  And Ramsey responds: 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP on the year.

 

So clearly, Washington has his favorites at this point, and he's not hesitant to rely heavily on them.

Relievers IP

September 19th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Here is a report that lists IP by pitchers with 0 GS (true relievers).  I looked because I thought Steve Halter had quite a few innings for us this year, and he does but he still only ranks 7th.  Frank Gordon makes the top 4.  No Washington Admirals on the list.  This is likely because 1) The Admiral's Starters have been solid most of the year and going deep into games and 2) They don't really have one "go to" MR or a long reliever 3) Blanchard, Kelly and Chavez are eliminated because of their GS.

Re: Props

September 19th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Why don't you play the whipping boy role a little more?   Are you his competitor or his secret admirer?

You may be totally correct in what you're saying but we here in Miami are getting quite a laugh off the amount of ass kissing.  HAHAHAHA.

Props

September 19th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

As I reflect a little bit it is an unbelievable feat that JTT is where he is with all the injuries that the Admirals have had. He is 90-63 and 12 games up with all that has happened this year. Just give JTT the Executive of the Year award now because he has my vote hands down. Not only because of what the Admirals have gone through this year but the unbelievable turnaround. Justin didn't panic and make wholesale changes at the end of last year he made little moves here and there and he has become the Billy Beane of EWB (with a high salary instead of the low salary). I think it is a testament to patience, and sticking with Bob Washington,but as I say that the Admirals had and have talent so it's not like his team is where they should be last year, but to the contrary they underperformed immensely. I don't really want to play Justin in the first round as he has handed me my ass all year with exception of the David Kimble night in which we kicked ass, but the Admirals for some reason pose a match up problem for us and I guess if I do make the playoffs we will be hot I am assuming and that can go a long way in baseball as a lot of the wildcard teams have won the REAL World Series something like 4 of 7. 
                        So a hip hip hooray for JTT and his accomplishments for this year.

National televised Game

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Never noticed this before.  On the main League Home Page it has the results of the day before and the start time.  On Saturday 9/19 there was only one night game.  The national game.  For whatever reason St. Louis vs. El Paso was chosen much to the chagrin of most EWB Fanatics who missed the 17 Inning marathon between LA and Omaha. See below.

American League
Away Team	Home Team	Result	Time	Winning Pitcher	Losing Pitcher
Portland	New Orleans	4-2	1:05 pm	S.Page (14-11, 4.21 ERA)	R.Powell (7-7, 3.64 ERA)
Chicago	Minneapolis	7-2	1:05 pm	S.Price (16-11, 3.12 ERA)	N.Harris (13-11, 3.28 ERA)
Los Angeles	Omaha	8-9	1:05 pm	J.Roe (4-3, 2.58 ERA)	W.Maxwell (1-1, 2.97 ERA)
Kansas City	Las Vegas	13-3	1:05 pm	J.Burke (13-12, 4.23 ERA)	D.MacGilp (9-19, 4.40 ERA)
Atlanta	Memphis	2-5	1:05 pm	H.Escalante (6-10, 3.61 ERA)	L.Smith (10-16, 4.28 ERA)
Miami	Washington	2-7	1:05 pm	S.García (15-5, 2.54 ERA)	F.Thomas (13-11, 4.95 ERA)
Denver	Carolina	5-1	4:05 pm	J.Ku (13-13, 4.44 ERA)	T.Moore (13-12, 3.09 ERA)

National League
Away Team	Home Team	Result	Time	Winning Pitcher	Losing Pitcher
Austin	Dallas	4-5	1:05 pm	A.Williams (5-5, 3.53 ERA)	B.Fitzpatrick (10-11, 3.86 ERA)
St. Louis	El Paso	3-2	7:05 pm	R.Womersley (14-11, 3.82 ERA)	J.Houston (14-11, 3.09 ERA)
Philadelphia	Detroit	11-3	1:05 pm	L.Tejada (14-9, 3.00 ERA)	B.Jones (11-15, 3.31 ERA)
Washington D.C.	Boston	2-6	1:05 pm	R.Rodríguez (16-7, 3.32 ERA)	C.Martínez (11-15, 3.91 ERA)
Indianapolis	Pittsburgh	8-4	1:05 pm	E.Martínez (10-15, 3.71 ERA)	T.Vanderzee (12-11, 2.88 ERA)
Montreal	New York	2-9	1:05 pm	A.López (10-1, 4.06 ERA)	E.Owen (7-9, 2.73 ERA)
Cleveland	Houston	5-6	1:05 pm	B.Young (5-7, 2.14 ERA)	J.Velasco (1-1, 2.78 ERA)
Cincinnati	San Antonio	5-6	1:05 pm	W.Reid (3-8, 4.30 ERA)	O.Brandon (3-5, 3.28 ERA)

Admirals Strength

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

So, you can tell this is another day where I've got a lot of EWB time.  (Funny thing is, today I'm actually pretty productive in getting real work done.)

 

Anyway, our biggest hope for the playoffs is that our starting pitching continues to deliver.  If they do, we might not need to depend on Carlos Hernandez or our bullpen all that much.

 

Our starters have been amazing this year.  For one thing, our starters' ERA of 3.49 is tops in the league.  Even this is partly misleading, though, in that it reflects the ERA of Roger Wright (who's struggled) and others like Jeff Blanchard, instead of just our big 4.  Our big 4 of Sergio Garcia, Joe MacGregor, Gustavo Chavez, and Antonio Aranda, have been lights out.  Their collective ERA has to be about 3.00, maybe even below (Garcia is 2.54; MacGregor 2.94; Chavez 3.10; Aranda 3.24). 

 

And they've really turned it on lately.  Garcia is 6-0, with like a 2.90 ERA in August/September (he also has 0 losses in his last 10 starts); MacGregor is 5-1, 3.00~ over the same stretch; Chavez is even better at 5-1, 1.50~ (he hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in his last 7 starts); and Aranda, worst of the group, is 4-3, 3.30~.

 

If we can get anywhere near this sort of production in the playoffs, we have a good chance to go far.

Re: Playoff concerns

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

It would be no real exaggeration to say that I've been waiting since late June for Carlos Hernandez to give me good reason to drop him as closer.  He had a really bad blown save back on 8/28, but that's about it, as far as recent poor perforamnces go.  (He also has a couple losses, but not in blown save situations.)

 

It really is the case that how he pitches seems to vary with how big a lead we give him: 1 run and he's lock-down; 2 runs and he'll give up a solo home run; 3 runs and he's walking the bases loaded, etc.  But, he seems to get out of his messes, for the most part.

 

I'm not sure if that's purely a matter of luck -- in which case I can't count on it continuing -- or if it testifies to some psychological trait he has that you want your closers to have.  Last year, when I handed the job over to Ken Milligan, we seemed to get the opposite result.  If Milligan came in with a 3-run lead, he'd pitch 1-2-3 innings left in right.  But, if he came in with a 1 run lead, it was grand slam time.  Because of that, Milligan had nowhere near Hernandez's 86.8% save percentage.  Maybe it's like this: Hernandez has the psychological makeup to be a closer, even if he doesn't have the arm anymore, while Milligan doesn't.  If that's a possibility, it makes me a little nervous to turn over the closer duties to anyone else.

 

In connection with that point, I signed Felipe Lopez this offseason to be a set up man/fill-in-closer should Hernandez struggle.  When Hernandez got injured, Lopez was absolutely atrocious as closer, and he's been in a funk ever since.  (He had like a 1.50 ERA prior to taking over as closer, and like a 10.00 ERA in the closer role.)  Again, makes me wonder: maybe Lopez doesn't have what it takes to fill the role, while Hernandez does.

 

Right now, the plan is to go with him.  But, if he has a bad rest of September we'll probably drop him from the closer role.  Of, if he blows even a single game come playoff time, we'll drop him.  Obviously, it's not an ideal situation.  It would not be all that surprising if it turns out to be our Achilles' heel.

 

This offseason, we will be seriously committed to adding a quality closer.  And that's so even if Hernandez has a star turn this offseason.  Hopefully, it won't be too late.

Playoff concerns

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Are the Admiral going to stick with Carlos Hernandez as the closer in the playoffs?  In Baseball Prospectus book "Baseball Between the Numbers" there is a chapter dedicated to success in the playoffs.  The correlation between strength of closer and playoff success is one of the highest.  Without going into all the details, essentially it says playoff games are usually close games between two evenly matched teams making the closer extremely important.  Also, managers tend to use the closer more optimally in playoffs (not sure if this will be a factor in EWB unless we were to manage the games).

Also, Miami is concerned about Forest Thomas.  Thomas has had quite a few poor performances recently.  If the playoffs were right now, I'd replace Thomas with Stinson as my number 3.

Once again, I highly recommend reading "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong ."  The chapters are extremely interesting especially knowing you can apply some of these things to your EWB franchise.

Admiral-Ball

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Having gone through as many game logs as I have, I've now formed some views about what strengths/weaknesses I especially value in players.  It's funny, but I really do have more sense of this now than I had previously acquired from being a baseball fan for 25 years.  Sometimes my assessments match up with conventional wisdom, but sometimes they don't.  At any rate, I think I'm slowly developing a philosophy of Admiral-Ball (meant to be akin to Billy Beane's Moneyball in some ways, but it's a different sort of thing).  Here are a few views...

 

1. Strikeouts are completely irrelevant for a leadoff hitter.  Sometimes, even today, I hear baseball analysts say "this guy strikes out to much to bat leadoff."  I have no idea what they mean.  All I care about is whether my leadoff hitter makes an out, not *how* he does.

 

2. Strikeouts are absolutely crucial for a middle of the lineup hitter.  Dave Tyler convinced me of this.  Tyler would come up so often with runners on, where just about any ball in play would drive someone in or at least move them over.  And he would K, killing a rally.  I absolutely would not want an Adam Dunn on my team; or at least, if I had him, I wouldn't want him batting higher than #7.  If I have a guy who strikes out 150+ times, I want him batting leadoff.  There, his K's won't kill ralleys, because they probably won't occur with runners on base.

 

3. OBP is absolutely crucial for a top of the order hitter (#1, #2) or a bottom of the order guy (#7, #8, #9).  Way more important than batting average.  David Kimble convinced me of this.  He would hit .230, but be on base all the time with an OBP of .380 or so.  This almost passes for conventional wisdom now, so I won't dwell on it.

 

4. OBP is hugely overrated for middle of the lineup hitters (#3-#6).  Barry Bonds walked all the time.  Why?  Because pitchers calculated it was more in their interest to walk him (or at least pitch him carefully) than to give him an at bat.  In other words, Barry Bonds was *less* valuable because he walked so much than if he had batted more (at least by opposing pitchers' calculations).  Bonds is a dramatic case, but I think the same principle applies to other middle of the order hitters: I want them using their at bats to drive in runs, not draw walks to let the bottom of the order players try to drive them in.  Again, Dave Tyler helped convince me of this.  He always had a high OBP (despite a low BA), and it always struck me as pretty worthless.  Great, Tyler drew a walk.  Now that means if Min-chul Pak can hit a home run, we might score.  Good luck!

 

I have other principles as well, but I'll leave it at these for now.  These principles helped lead me to trade Dave Tyler for Will Lund: Tyler had a much higher OBP (like, .360 to .280) but way more K's (like, 130 to 65).  In a middle-of-the-order hitter, I would much rather have Lund's attributes.  And so, I was very happy with the production I got out of Lund in 1991, even if his VORP sucked.  (His bad VORP is based too much on having a bad OBP, which again I don't care about.)

 

Applying this to Miguel Torres, I think Torres' (relatively) high OBP is pretty worthless.  BUT, I take his low K's as pretty good.  I also am impressed by his high RBI total -- some analysts think that RBIs are an overrated stat, but I think they're completely wrong.

Re: Miguel Torres Redux

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Taking a look, Sal Bando is probably most similar to Miguel Torres.  If you look at some of his other years they look similar to what Torres will finish with this year.  Also, any discrepancy in power between the two can probably be reconciled with the period differences.  Early 1970's were notoriously pitcher dominated, but I am not sure you could argue that and then only apply it to one stat, HR's.

I find it interesting to find real player equivalents, it gives me a better grasp of the type of player these fictional players are.  Even though I am not overly familiar with Bando, I still have a mental association with him and a general idea of his characteristics and place in history.

Miguel Torres Redux

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

These are the real life players that have similar stats to Torres this year.  Note that none of them exhibit the power of Torres, so he really is odd.  I used the following criteria BB>70, SO<70, AVG< .240, HR> 15.

 Cnt Player      **HR** BB SO  BA Year Age Tm Lg G  PA AB R  H 2B 3B RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS OBP  SLG  OPS Positions
+----+-----------------+------+---+---+-----+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+---------+
   1 Gene
 Tenace     17  92 63 .222 1980 33 SDP NL 133 416 316 46 70 11 1 50 11  4  0  4 11  4 4 .399 .424 .823 *23    
   2 Harmon Killebrew  17  70 70 .210 1968 32 MIN AL 100 371 295 40 62 7 2 40  9  2  0  4 13  0 0 .361 .420 .781 *35    
   3 Darrell Evans    16  77 70 .232 1984 37 DET AL 131 483 401 60 93 11 1 63 10  0  1  4  7  2 2 .353 .384 .737 D35    
   4 Joe Morgan     16  89 54 .230 1983 39 PHI NL 123 504 404 72 93 20 1 59  1  4  1  6 13 18 2 .370 .403 .773 *4    
   5 Sal Bando      15  78 55 .236 1972 28 OAK AL 152 631 535 64 126 20 3 77 17  9  6  3 13  3 1 .341 .368 .709 *5/4   

Re: Miguel Torres

September 18th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Torres is a unique player and it's been hard to figure out for me how to deal with him.  We stuck him in the middle of the lineup for most of the first months before sending him to hit 7th or 8th.

Once again I'm not dissatisfied with the trade because of the circumstances.  We needed to get rid of Kim's salary, needed an everyday outfielder, and needed more raw power in the lineup.  Here's how I view Torres now and why I think he'll work in our lineup.  We don't necessarily COUNT on him to do shit.  When he was in the middle of the lineup, it was bad for us.  With players like Carranza and Hinkle getting on base a lot, we need someone hitting behind them that can get hits.  Torres was, at the time, hitting below .200.  Sure he walks a lot but really still only at a ratio of a little more than once every 2 games.  So in situation after situation, Torres would make costly outs.

Moving him to 7th takes the pressure off in a way.  We replace the middle of the order with some higher contact/obp hitters.  Now whatever Torres does is like a bonus.  We don't necessarily need him to hit to win.  He comes up to bat with RISP less often and it makes it easier for us to take a gamble, in the sense that if he hits a HR then great, if not well we will move on.  So having a 7 hitter capable of hitting 30 HR is good, we just must make sure we never have to count on him to go back to the middle of the order.  Since we are paying him the league minimum there is no cost/benefit analysis to be made.  This reasoning will all go to shit once he starts asking for a multimillion dollar contract.  Then we will be forced to decide if his production is worth it.

Miguel Torres

September 18th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Miguel Torres is the player acquired by Miami from San Antonio in exchange for Dong-min Kim.  This year at least, he's turned out to be very different from the player he appeared to be before, and also very different from his ratings, at least in some respect.

 

Here is his stats line...

 

.224/27/87/0.

 

The good power production and horrible batting average might make you think of, say, Rob Deer or Pete Incaviglia.  But there are important differences.  For one thing, Torres doesn't really strike out much at all -- just 52 Ks in 492 At Bats.  I'm personally convinced that low K's is a hugely desirable feature, especially in a middle of the lineup hitter (it matters less for top and bottom hitters).  So, I think this is a big positive.  In addition, Torres walks a whole lot: 78 times so far this year.  Because of this, his OBP is an almost respectable .330.  Still not great by any stretch of the imagination, but much, much better than his .224 BA.

 

Because of the OBP in particular, Torres has a pretty solid VORP of 18.0. 

 

Compare this to, say Will Lund in 1991.

 

That year, Lund's stats were .231/18/74/1.

 

A slightly better batting average, albeit with less power (although Lund did have somewhat less playing time).  So, there are differences, but still close enough that you might think of them as similar players.  But here's a big difference: Lund walked not much at all, just 35 times all year.  And because of this, his OBP was an atrocious .280.  Consequently, his VORP was a horrible -7.4, meaning that your average replacement player was significantly better than Lund.  I'm not necessarily surprised that Torres ranks higher than Lund; I am a little surprised how big the difference is though, given that superficially, Lund 1991 strikes me as similar to Torres 1992.

 

Anyway, I asked Miami awhile ago whether they were satisfied with Torres, and they said something like obviously not, treating the question as rhetorical.  But I mean it seriously, and I ask it again.  Suppose it turns that Torres never improves; this is the player you've gotten.  Would you be satisfied with his mixture of power, run production, and walks, given his low batting average?  I think I might be, if I were in their circumstances.  But he's such a unique player, in some ways, that I'm not sure -- I would have to go through the game logs to get a full sense of whether I believe in him or not.

Re: AL Pennant Races

September 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

I will confirm that I'll be there.  Hey, if you pick the right day, we might even be able to get Kimble into the lineup (he's coming back from injury).  And that's a yes on meeting Tina Turner.

Re: AL Pennant Races

September 17th by Wolverines GM

Justin do I have your conformation that you will be attending the ceremony for David Kimble? You can stay at your parents house while your in town.

 

Also did you want to meet Tina Turner? I can arrange it if you like?

Re: AL Pennant Races

September 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

I could just make up probabilities, but I don't really know how to calculate them in a scientific way, in say the way the ESPN baseball standings do.  (Their calculations are complicated, and they don't fully reveal how it works.)  I can answer this, though: how well does a team have to play, in order to have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs?

 

1. Start with the Plain Division pennant race.  Going in, K.C. has the better team (as determined by present winning percentage) and a 3 game lead, but plays a more difficult schedule.  More specifically, K.C.'s present winning percentage is .532 and their schedule strength is .525, for a +.007 differential; Omaha is .511 and their opponents are .511, for a 0 differential.  So, K.C. has an advantage of .007 over K.C.

 

If things go exactly as expected, then, K.C. should actually add to their division lead by .735 games by the end of the season.  Now, question: how well does Omaha have to play in order to have a reasonable expectation of overtaking K.C.?  Answer: They have to play like a .677 team, that is a 110 win team.  Let me be clear: it's not that Omaha has to have a .677 winning percentage the rest of the way; they could get by with less.  But, they have to play the way the team with a .677 winning percentage would play.  (What's the difference?  Well, think of it like this: a .677 team will win a certain portion of games if they're always playing .500 teams, and they'll win a higher percentage of games if they're always playing .400 teams.  Omaha needs to play the way a .677 team would play against .511 teams, given that this is their strength of schedule.)  If Omaha plays like a 110-win or better, then they have a better-than-even chance of winning the pennant.  If they play any worse -- if they play merely like a 100 win team, say -- then they have a less than 50/50 chance of winning.  That's a tall order, and so Omaha is something of a longshot -- not just because they don't have the lead presently, but also because of the remaining schedule.

 

2. Now Sunbelt pennant.  Atlanta's winning percentage is .532 while their opponents is .477, for a .055 differential.  Miami is .560; their opponents are .512; that's a .048 differential.  So, Atlanta has an advantage of .007 over Miami. 

 

If things go exactly as expected, Miami should lose a bit of their lead by the time the season ends -- it should end up as a 3.265 game lead instead of 4, which it is presently.  Now, how badly can Miami afford to play and still have a reasonable expectation to win the division?  They can play as badly as a .345 team, that is, a 55 win team.  Again, it's not that Miami can have a .345 winning percentage the rest of the way; it's that they have to play their (tougher than average) schedule in the way that a .345 team would.  If they do any better than that, they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning the division.  If they do worse, they have less than a 50/50 chance.  So, here is a case where even though Atlanta has an easier schedule, the fact that Miami is a better team (as measured by present winning percentage) and has a significant 4 game lead means that Miami's chances of winning the division are really very good.

 

3.  Finally, how about the Wildcard race between Omaha and Atlanta.  Again, Omaha is .511 while their opponents are .511, for a 0 differential.  Atlanta is .532 while their opponents are .477 for a .055 differential.  So, Atlanta has a +.055 advantage.  That's big.

 

If things go as expected, Atlanta should grow their Wildcard lead from 3 games (where it is presently) to 4.155 games by the end of the season.  How well does Omaha have to play in order to have a reasonable chance of expecting to overtake Atlanta?  They have to play like a .698, or 113 win team.  Play better than that and they have better than a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs; play worse and their odds go below 50/50.  So again, Omaha's work is cut out for them.

 

 

Summing up, the likeliest result here is that things stay exactly as they are: K.C. wins the Plains, Miami wins the Sunbelt, and Atlanta wins the Wild Card.  Omaha could sneak in, but they're either going to need someone else to underperform, or they're going to need to overperform.  That's not impossible -- it's easier to play like a .677 team over the course of 3 weeks than it is over the course of a full season.  Finally: the smart money would say that if Omaha is going to overtake anyone, it's more likely to be Kansas City instead of Atlanta.  Or at least, that's what the smart money would say based purely on records and remaining schedule, and ignoring things like injuries, pitching matchups, talent, which teams are hot or cold, etc.  If you asked me for my hunch, not based on this analysis, I would say that the better target is Atlanta.

Re: AL Pennant Races

September 17th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Do you have odds for the teams making it to playoffs?  And odds for a trip for the World Series, for all teams in contention?

AL Pennant Races

September 17th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here's an analysis of the remaining schedules for the playoff contenders in the AL (ich I'm restricting to Miami, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Omaha, although technically some other team could sneak in).  NOTE: Omaha is now equally far back in the Plains Division and in the Wildcard, so I regard them as equally competing with Kansas City and Atlanta (the Wild Card leader).

 

1. Atlanta

Winning Percentage of teams on remaining schedule: .477, the equivalent of 77 teams.  (So, on average, Atlanta plays a 77-win team every day between now and the end of the season.)

Notable Series: They host Omaha from September 20-22nd, and then they host Kansas City from September 27th-29th.

Home/Road Breakdown: 12 at home, 9 on the road.

Comments: Atlanta has by far the easiest schedule of any contender.  They play each of the last place teams in the AL (Memphis, Chicago, and Portland), they avoid Washington and Miami (the two best teams), and they get to play their toughest series (Omaha, K.C.) at home instead of on the road.  I would emphasize: Memphis is by far the worst team in the AL, so the fact that Atlanta gets to play them is a big boost.  Their schedule could not be more favorable.

 

2. Miami

Winning Percentage of teams on remaining schedule: .512, the equivalent of 83 wins.

Notable Series: at Kansas City September 7th-9th, at Washington September 17th-19th. 

Home/Road Breakdown: 9 at home, 12 on the road.

Notes: A relatively difficult schedule.  They don't get to play a single last place team, they have to play both of the other first place teams (K.C. and Washington) on the road.  They will have to earn it.

 

3. Omaha

Winning Percentage of teams on remaining schedule: .511, the equivalent of 83 wins.

Notable Series: September 7th-9th they host Washington, and September 20th-22nd they visit Atlanta.

Home/Road Breakdown: 9 at home, 12 on the road.

Notes: Again, a relatively difficult schedule, although perhaps easier than Miami's.  They start off with Washington, who they haven't beaten all year.  Big series.  The only last place team they play is Portland, who's probably the strongest of the last-placers.  Also, that series at Atlanta on the 20th-22nd could be huge.  The Wild Card could depend on it.

 

4. Kansas City

Winning Percentage of teams on remaining schedule: .525, the equivalent of 85 Wins (that's the hardest of all 4 teams).

Notable Series: Host Miami September 7th-9th, they host Washington September 14-16, and they are at Atlanta September 27-29, the last 3 days of the season.

Home/Road Breakdown: 9 at home, 12 on the road.

Notes: By far, the toughest schedule.  They play both of the other division leaders (Washington, Miami), as well as Wild Card leader Atlanta, and don't get to play a single last place team.  Also, they have more games on the road than at home.  On the bright side, some of their toughest series (Washington, Miami) are at home.  Still, Kansas City is going to have to earn it, even more than Miami.  Good thing they've built up a bit of a cushion.

Wolverine Den of Fame....

September 16th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

On our upcoming series against the hated Washington Admirals Sept. 7, 1992 we will be honoring current Admiral and former Wolverine great Mr.Wolverine himself David Kimble. David will be the first member of the Wolverine Den of Fame and fitting that he is the first since he is Mr. Wolverine. We would like to ASK Admiral GM JTT to be in attendance along with the Admiral players as we will have a extravaganza display of fireworks,lasers, and music. The music that will cerenade Mr. Wolverine will be Tina Turner's "Your simply the best" as Ms. Tina Turner will grace us with her appearence and perform live. David and the Wolverine organization has had there differences in the past, but to let bygones be bygones we have buried the hatchet and we are extremely happy for David and his life partner Jim.

Correction

September 15th, 2008 by Banditos GM

In the last post I made the mistake of saying Vicente Sierra was let go by Atlanta, instead he retired.

Lou Frye

September 15th, 2008 by Banditos GM

While Omaha and baseball media is taking in the shockwave of the Torre firing, little is known about new manager Lou Frye.  Mike Kelly was able to dig up his former player file.  Frye never reached above SA and never really did anything in the field.  Instead he soaked up the baseball knowledge of his Rookie League Manager Vicente Sierra of Missoula.  After playing under Sierra, Frye knew it was his dream to become a manager one day.

Sierra has had quite a successful career in the EWB with one World Series under his belt and several playoff appearances.  Sierra has managed New Orleans, the powerhouse Gargoyles of the early '80's and most recently Atlanta in 1991 where he was let go after one year.

Frye still maintains a tight bond with Sierra.  The two make time every offseason to go to Canada for a weeklong fishing trip.  Frye admits that he has learned more baseball on the lakes of Canada with Sierra than he has in years of being on the field.

Chuck Tanner

September 15th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Did you know that Chuck Tanner is widely thought to have a very sunny disposition?  This isn't an EWB-based claim, it's a reality-based claim.  When his 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates team won the World Series, it was his good spirits which were supposed to contribute to the "We are Family" attitude.

EWB Stat of the Day

September 15th, 2008 by Admirals GM

11: The number of Washington Admirals on the present active roster or D.L. who were also on the roster back in 1990 when we first took over our teams (Carlos Lopez, John Boggs, Oliver Cole, Mike Robinson, Roy Wilson, Gerald Latham, Mark Jackson, Gustavo Chavez, Sergio Garcia, Doug Kelly, and Roger Wright).

 

13: The number of Miami Banditos to whom this applies (George Banks, Ben Stinson, Steven Miles, Joe Townsend, Stan Kirby, Ken Bryant, Ken Hamilton, Anthony Prior, Gavin James, Luis Carranza, Ernesto Hernandez, Tom Delzoppo, and Joe Young).

 

6: The number of Omaha Wolverines to whom it applies (Adam Hamilton, Ron Newton, Julio Contreras, Rich Sawyer, Chi-ming Khu, Felix Rojas).

 

Note both that Omaha has far fewer players, and also that the ones they do have are generally bit players (Ron Newton, Julio Contreras, etc.), while Washington's and Miami's list consists of a number of big contributors (Mike Robinson, Sergio Garcia, George Banks, Luis Carranza, etc.).  Obviously, there are reasons for this -- Omaha had less to start off with, and they also like to trade more.  I just think it's interesting.

 

I'd be curious to see how our turnover rate compares with real MLB teams.

Re: Another note on Yost...

September 15th, 2008 by Admirals GM

By the way Mike, did you see who they're replacing Yost with?  It's Dale Sveum, one of your personal favorites.  (Not a joke.  Mike and I have had numerous conversations about Sveum.)  I think that's the sort of manager you should seek out now.  Find *your* Dale Sveum.

Re: BREAKING NEWS !

September 15th, 2008 by Banditos GM

That's crazy because I just got back home and was planning on writing an email about Ned Yost as well.  Because I was schocked to hear he got fired.  I was going to say if an EWB team, say like Atlanta, did it we probably would have lamented how it was unrealistic or really really odd.

Re: Wolverines BREAKING NEWS !

September 15th, 2008 by Admirals GM

It's funny, after seeing Ed Yost get fired today I was going to suggest to Mike that he make the same move with Joe Torre.  I would have meant it as a joke.

 

Instant Analysis: On the one hand, it's obviously crazy.  On the other hand, I never thought Mike was all that excited about Torre in the first place (Torre isn't really a Mike-guy in the same way that, say, Pete Rose was), and it really is the case that Omaha has underperformed. 

Wolverines BREAKING NEWS !

September 15th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

The Omaha Wolverines have fired manager Joe Torre after the Wolverines were swept over the weekend by rival Kansas City. We got the official word from Wolverines GM MikeG today as he was coming out of Sears Field today and he stated that " We are under performing at a significant level and the events over the weekend didn't help the cause." I asked him why now as you are in a pennant race and he responded " We will not be anywhere if this team continues to under perform, and moreover the moral of the team has taken a hit since the All-Star break and also I take most of the blame on this one because I thought Joe was ready for the job and he was not, I still think Joe has good future in the game just not now."

     Omaha will bring up Lou Frye from AAA Lincoln to manage Omaha the rest of the way as he has done wonders with Lincoln with essentially little or no talent.

     I have to believe this was a quick forced hire by MikeG as Billy Martin retired last year, but he has to take the blame on this one since he hired Joe Torre. We will see if Omaha can salvage the season in such turmoil remember they are only 3 out of first and as Gilmore said a team that is "under performing at a significant level" can go on to the playoffs after a late season hire.

                                                   -Arthur Thinderpussy