Earl Weaver Baseball League

Re: Craig Belcher?

December 14th, 2008 by Admirals GM

1. Is that for real?  Belcher has HIV?  If it is, what are the consequences?  Does he retire?  Does HIV (within the game) go away in 2 weeks, like a flu?  It's still only 1993, and so there's a different understanding of HIV at the time.  I suspect some EWB player would protest playing against (or with) someone with HIV, ala Karl Malone/Magic Johnson back in the day.

 

2. Sorry, I was gone most of the day yesterday.  I can Yugma today, though.  Let me know your schedule and I'll try to work around it.  (Strictly speaking, I guess me and Rob are the only ones who need to participate in the next Yugma session.)

 

3. With holiday traveling coming up, it would be nice if we could start 1994 (or at least have it set up) by the end of this week, meaning Friday.  Friday itself might be busy for me, so it would be nice if we could have all that done by Thursday, if possible.

Re: Craig Belcher?

December 14th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Belcher has HIV and his morale is: distressed.

Belcher:  http://heatofthemoment.asia/

Craig Belcher?

December 14th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Put Lawrence Jordan and Pablo Guillen on Omaha roster.

 

What is Craig Belcher's potential at and his morale.

History of #1 Picks

December 13th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Again, I've been looking through past drafts.  This post is not really about trying to learn how the draft works in order to make better picks in the future.  Instead, it's just about the stories behind all the former #1 picks.  So here are those stories...

 

 

 

1970: Albert "Monster" William, SP, Carolina Colonials.  (Note: not to be confused with the inaugural draft, which involved veteran players being assigned to teams for the first time.  William was a high school player selected 1st in the regular first-year-player's draft.)  A big (6'4'', 230) imposing starting pitcher with great movement and control but not much stuff, William was a moderate success story as a first pick.  After working his way up through the minors he made his major league debut in 1973 (at age 20), and had success right away.  In 1974 (his 2nd year) he went 15-8, 3.18; in 1976 he won 20 games and helped lead the Colonials to their only World Series chamionship (preventing the Admirals from 5-peating); in 1977 he won 18 games; in 1978 he won 17.  He was traded to the Washington D.C. Diplomats prior to the 1979 season, and was never the same again.  After struggling through an 8-15 season in 1979, the Diplomats relegated him to the bullpen, where he struggled for three years.  Let go after the 1982 season, Monster retired at the young age of 29.  Just 40 today, meaning that Monster is younger than Forest Thomas and various other present major leaguers.  NOTE: the first 8 picks of the 1970 draft were all pitchers, and all made it to the majors, but without sensational success.  The first offensive player taken, with the 9th pick, was Carlos Gudino, who went on to have a Hall of Fame career and collected over 3,000 hits.

 

1971: Kevin "Coyote" Sutherland, SP, Boston Irish.  A kind of 1970s legend whose career I covered in one of my 1970s retrospectives, Sutherland made it to the majors by 1973 (at age 20) and was dominant from the get-go.  Sutherland won the 1974 NL Gibson Award behind a 21-13 record and 1.93 ERA; other career highlights include pitching 2 no hitters in 1975; twice winning 20 games; being selected to the All Star game 3 times; and various other things.  Unfortunately, Coyote struggled with injury problems throughout his career, and was effectively washed up by the time he hit 30, retiring at age 33.  Finished with a career record of 182-138 and 3.02.  In various ways, his career trajectory seems to resemble George Banks'.

 

1972: Bill "Slush" Browning, SP, Portland Fog Devils.  Yet another big (6'7'', 218) SP with a nickname, Slush was an okay starter in the majors for several seasons in the mid to late 1970s.  Portland rushed him to the majors by 1973, and he struggled to start things off.  His best season was 1975 when he posted a 2.81 ERA but was limited to a 7-8 record by his team's woeful offense.  Probably most famous for the following... After his rookie season of 1973, Portland traded him to Los Angeles.  Then, after a single season with the Gargoyles, Slush was traded to San Antonio for a young pitching prospect by the name of Geoff McKnight.  On paper, you had to like the trade from San Antonio's perspective: Slush was a former first pick who wasn't clearly washed up, while McKnight was a mid-level prospect who had lost 27 games (!) in rookie ball the year before.  But obviously, that's now how things worked out.  McKnight went on to win 3 Gibson Awards, led the Gargoyles to the 1982 World Championship, and should win his 300th career game in 1994; meanwhile, Slush Browning retired after 1979 at the young age of 26.

 

1973: Jose Gil, SS, Indianapolis Black Jacks.  Just a misfire.  Gil had 5-2-4 potential at his peak, but just simply never broke through.  He spent most of his career in A ball, and never made it above AA.  Complete bust.  The first non-starting-pitcher selected #1.

 

1974: John Coleman, SP, El Paso Iron Horses.  Traded twice before making it to the majors.  First, in December of 1974 for MR Dick Johnson (who himself had a 20 year EWB career, and played for the Iron Horses from 1975-1991; El Paso loves their relievers to stay with them forever).  Second, in December 1975, along with another player to New York for 3B Kade Perry (non-factor in his career).  Coleman, who is active to this day with Denver, has had a decent (and certainly long-lived) EWB career.  Won 18 games in 1984 for New York; 19 games in 1987 for Dallas; pitched a no-hitter in 1985; pitched for the Admirals (always a career highlight) in 1988; and went 10-7 and 3.15 as recently as 1992, Coleman is always a consistent performer, though never a spectacular one.  Still, a pretty decent #1 pick.  INTERESTING SIDE NOTE: The #2 pick in this draft was David Kimble, Mr. Wolverine.

 

1975: Javier Cantu, SP, El Paso Iron Horses.  The 2nd straight SP drafted #1 by El Paso.  Cantu was okay as a major leaguer.  He made his EWB debut in 1979 (not rushed) and went 10-15 and 3.97 that year.  His EWB peak came 2 years later when he went 16-10 and 3.45 in 1981.  His career just kind of petered out, and he was washed up after 1985, at just 28 years of age.  Also won a gold glove in 1980.

 

1976: Vincent "Eager Beaver" Carter, C, New Orleans Dukes.  Made his EWB debut just 1 year later, in 1977.  Either Carter or George Banks is the greatest #1 pick of all time.  Probably have to give it to Carter.  An analogy here might be to the NBA draft.  Most years, the #1 pick is solid, but not a franchise-changer.  But every 10 years or so, there's a Shaquille O'Neal, or a Tim Duncan, or a LeBron James available.  Vincent Carter and George Banks are the two franchise-changers as #1 picks.

 

1977: Bob Wiederanders, SP, Los Angeles Gargoyles.  A tremendous, long career where he's gone 221-154 and 3.39 and won the 1991 NL Gibson Award with New York, Wiederanders is one of the better EWB pitchers of all time and a borderline Hall of Famer.  A 6-time All Star and 2 time World Champion (1982 with the Gargoyles, and then 1991 with the New York 5 Points).

 

1978: Mike Williams, SP, New York 5 Points.  An okay career.  An 11 point pitcher in his peak, he made his EWB drebut in 1980 and had a nice 12-5 and 2.63 ERA in 1982.  Won 17 games in 1985, but then lost 20 games in 1986.  Retired after the 1991 season at the youngish age of 31.

 

1979: Matt Smith, SP, Minneapolis Mutiny.  Had 11 pt. potential upon first scout rating (1980), but then dropped to 9 pts. one year later, he was traded by Minneapolis to Memphis in July of 1981 in exchange for a couple of scrubs.  Despite his drop in potenial, Smith made it to the majors in 1981 with Memphis, where he went 15-11 (good) and 4.43 (bad).  Had a better EWB season in 1983, and then faded out after 1984, throwing his last EWB pitch as a mere 25-year-old.  Hey, if we (Washington) could get this sort of production out of Jake Wilkinson, we'd take it.

 

1980: Juan Vargas, SP, Portland Fog Devils.  Portland's 2nd #1 pick (after Slush Browning), Vargas had a decent EWB career.  Rocketing up through the Fog Devils' system, Vargas made it to the majors in just 1981.  He won 18 games with Portland in 1987 and 17 games in 1990.  Also, spent an odd 1989 year with Dallas after signing as a free agent, only to return to his beloved Portland for 1990-1992.  Vargas struggled in 1993 with New Orleans, going 7-15 and 5.75. At this point, the question is whether the 32-year-old Vargas is washed up.  Maybe he just needs to return to the Fog Devils yet again?  Still, a decent pick as a top choice.

 

1981: Rusty Wise, SP, San Antonio Aztecas.  DIGRESSION: Tons and tons of starting pitchers are getting picked first overall.  I hadn't realized this was such a trend prior to looking back through the data.  Anyway, Wise had a lot of good R-ball starts in 1981 (multiple shut outs), only to be released after the season and picked up by El Paso.  With the Iron Horses, he shot up the organization only to stall at AAA, and never made it to the majors.  Retired after the 1987 season at the young age of just 23.  Incidentally, the top position player selected in this draft (#3 overall) was Mike Robinson.  Yet another mis-draft by the Aztecas, who could have had the Hit Dog, Robinson.  (Official nickname.)

 

1982: Bill Malone, SP, San Antonio Aztecas.  Another San Antonio SP who (at least) made it to the majors, but didn't really do anything there.  Malone was an Azteca from 1983 (rushed?) through 1987.  But he only spent one full year in EWB: 1984, when he went 11-10 and 4.31.  He had 12 pt. potential in his prime and 10 pt. actuality, Malone never lived up to his potential.  Aztecas!!!

 

1983: Mark Calhoun, SP, San Antonio Aztecas.  Holy shit.  Another Aztecas SP at #1.  Another failure.  I've documented Calhoun before, when commenting upon the 1983 draft.  Relevant stats: had a 13-34 career record, with a 5.29 ERA.  Worst year was 1989 when he went 9-23 (and 5.25 with Carolina, after being traded by the Aztecas.  Presently an un-signed free agent with 9 point talent.

 

1984: George Banks, SP, Miam Banditos.  Obviously, Banks' story is well known.  If not the greatest #1 pick ever, then the 2nd greatest (behind only, possibly, Vincent Carter).

 

1985: Juan Herrera, SP, Miami Bandtios.  Again, I've portrayed Herrera before.  Obviously no Banks; but on the other hand, not an embarrassment of a pick.

 

1986: Chris Thomas, SP, San Antonio Aztecas.  After a 2-year reprieve, we're back to Azteca busts.  Thomas was released in April of 1986 (one month after the draft) and immediately picked up by Memphis.  After great years in 1988 and 1989, sucked immediately after.  Presently an un-signed free agent free agent, after spending 1988-1992 with the Razorbacks.

 

1987: Jose Olivares, SP, Los Angeles Gargoyles.  Los Angeles had this weird period around this time where they had decent talent, but put up horrible years, allowing them to get a first pick.  At the major league level, they shortly threreafter re-signed Geoff McKnight (who had signed away with Portland) and returned to dominance.  This first pick of Olivares fizzled though.  Olivarez had 11 point potential in his prime as well as 10 point actual, but never managed to rise above AAA. Spent 1993 in AA with St. Louis's organization, where he had an 8.73 ERA.  But hey, he won the 1992 Glove Wizard award for pitchers in the Texas League.  Which makes a nice mantle piece.

 

1988: Jeff "Condor" Hansen, 1B, Minneapolis Mutiny.  Released in September of 1988 and picked up by the Washington D.C. Diplomats, the Condor has become a respectable backup 1B and consistent pinch hitter for the Diplomats, posting numbers of .272/9/44 in 1993.  The Condor originally had potential ratings of 4 contact and 5 power, he's instead become a 3-3 guy in his 3 seasons with the Diplomats (from 1991-1993).  Will probably stick around the majors for several years to come, without ever becoming a real contributor.

 

1989: Sherman Barber, SP, Montreal Knights.  Looking like an instant-bust; had just 2-2-3 potential ratings upon first scouting in 1990.  The first position player taken in the 1989 draft was Artie Bicknell.  The second position player taken was Frank Patterson.  Hmm...  What if the Knights had gone for a position player instead?  Barber spent all of 1993 in A-ball, after spending 1992 in AA.  At this point, I would be amazed if he ever makes it to the majors.

 

1990: Mauro Rodriguez, SP, Carolina Colonials.  A kind of weird case.  Rodriguez had 11 pt. potential in his 1st initial scouting, and made it to the majors in 1992, where he went 8-8 and 4.04 and ranked among the league leaders in HR/9 and ShO.  But was demoted to AAA in 1993 (where he went 16-13 and 3.95).  He's now down to a 9 pt. pitcher.  If life is fair, Rodriguez will see more major league time, but probably never become a consistent EWB contributor.  Other starting pitchers picked in the 1st round: Lawrence Jordan (Cleveland), Earl Armstrong (Pittsburgh, then with Cleveland, now with Omaha), Ed Jackson (Houston, Now Omaha), Clayton Jones (New York, now with Omaha).  There were better picks to be made.  Given enough time, the Wolverines' starting rotation will consist entirely of first round picks from 1990.

 

1991: Tommy Brown, LF, Omaha Wolverines.  Just made his EWB debut with Montreal in 1993.  Has 4-4-4 potential, which puts him on track to become a star.  Let's see if he contends for the Angel Rosa Award in 1994.

 

1992: Danny "Sunshine" Beasley, 2B, Montreal Knights.  Still projected as 5-4 potential, but too early to judge given that he's never played above A ball.

 

1993: Damian "Smiley" Gonzalez, SS, Washington D.C. Diplomats.  "Sunshine" was a made-up nickname; "Smiley' is not.  Projects to 4-4-5 ratings; didn't make it past SA in 1993.

Offseason Plans

December 8th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Again, everything is still up in the air at this point.  If we win the World Series, odds are we'll stay relatively pat, and use our money to re-sign Banks or Scott (or both); but even if we win, there's a chance we'll make a move.  If we lose the ALCS, odds are we'll shake things up; although there's a chance that even if we lose we stay relatively pat.

 

However, operating on the assumption that moves will be made (for the sake of argument), here's how we see ourselves proceeding.

 

1. First option is to make a hard push at Bowden or Owen.  In our matchups with both Minneapolis and Omaha, we don't like the fact that we're outgunned by their top 2 starters.  We have good rotational depth, but we feel like MacGregor is our only truly elite SP at this point.  (Why re-sign Sergio Garcia then?  Well, he might return to elite status.  Also, we are already feeling some 2nd thoughts about the move.)  Given the choice between Bowden and Owen, we probably prefer Bowden.  Bowden's plusses are that he has better overall ratings (12 pt vs. Owen's 11 pt.), better control (4 vs. 3, and Owen's 3 looks especially low as he's consistently among the league leaders in walks), and better fatigue (which is a big issue on our team, given our historically weak bullpen).  Owen's plusses are primarily his age (29 vs. Bowden at 35), and he's simply more dominant (among the leaders in K's and opponents' BA).  It also worries us a little that Bowden hasn't really had an elite year since 1990, back when he was 32.  All things said, though, we probably have a preference for Bowden.  However, if Bowden demands too much money, or if the Banditos make a strong push -- I single them out because they especially have a lot of money, an have already expressed a desire to pursue a SP -- we could be happy to pursue Owen as a consolation prize.

 

2. If that falls through, we could also pursue a 2nd tier starter like Jessie Quick or Desmond MacGilip.  But only if the price is right.  If we did this, we would almost certainly look to turn around and trade one of our present SPs to acquire a good relief pitcher: could trade Chavez, could trade Kelly, could even trade Garcia, if the offer was right.  This is probably significantly less likely than option 1.  If we decide we cannot get either Owen or Bowden, then we probably just use the bulk of our money to -re-sign someone we already have, either Banks or Scott.

 

3. Remote outside chance we pursue a 2nd tier outfielder.  NOT Jose Reyes of Kansas City, just because he's going to demand more money than we can pay.  Maybe Juan Freitas or Randall Helmick, if they come as bargains, meaning significantly less than the $6M a year Porter Scott wants.  (If they want anything in the ballpark of Scott, we'd prefer to have Scott himself.)  If we sign one of these outfielders, we would likely trade Mark Jackson, who projects to be a free agent after next year.  Again, I don't think this scenario is very likely, in part because I doubt I can get desired value for Jackson (in a trade) and in part because I doubt players like Freitas/Helmick/etc. will be bargains.  If I know the other GMs, I figure somebody will come around and give Helmick a 7 year, $45M offer, or something absurd.

 

4. Sign various assorted middle relievers.  I list this last because it's least interesting; but, it's most definite.  I will be looking to add bargain journeyman relievers to my bullpen, just because I always have bullpen problems.

 

So, I think that's it, operating on the assumption that moves are being made.  The trickier thing for me, the part I haven't figured out, is whether moves should be made.

Re: Tonight

December 5th, 2008 by Admirals GM

It's true.  When Rob first sent the e-mail that Mike was going to the Nutcracker, I sincerely thought he was joking.  And now, with Mike saying he's going to the Christmas Carol, I couldn't tell at first whether he wasn't trying to play off Rob's "joke" or tell the truth.

 

Not that I'm one to talk, because I've gone to plenty of crap plays like the Nutcracker and a Christmas Carol with my family.  But I thought you were above that Mike.

Re: Tonight

December 5th, 2008 by Banditos GM

Jesus H Christ, Mike!  First the Nutcracker and now the Christmas Carol!?  What kinda pussy are you turning into?  This is the frickin' EWB playoffs, boy.  Prioritize!

9:30 means 10:30 my time and I gotta work in the morning.  I'll see if it will work, call me if you get home earlier.

Re: Tonight

December 12th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Got to go to the Christmas Carol at 730 so I should be back by 930 I would think.

 

I think we are going to start Ed Jackson in game 6, but I don't want to overuse him at a young age and end up like George Banks. I realize he is at 87 % and if I don't throw him and I lose I am done for the year so I am being precacious.

RE: wolverine news

December 5th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

Just going through all my old e mails and ran across this. I could of had Doug Kelly for I believe Miguel Gonzalez. Funny some of the shit you run across when you go through old emails you keep.  Circa 1991.

Hey Mike ,

 

Given your pitching situation , we might be interested in a trade since we have more ML-caliber starting pitchers than we can fit into the rotation at once.  Here would be our candidates for a trade , going from most expensive to least.

 

1. Antonio Aranda.  We value Aranda very highly , so highly that I doubt a deal could get done for him.  But , just in case you’re willing to knock our socks off , I thought I would mention him.

2. Doug Kelly.  Kelly is a highly accomplished middle reliever who’s a starting pitcher by nature (he has a 10 endurance).  Like Aranda , Kelly is in our starting rotation to start the year.  Again , we doubt a deal could get done for him , but I mention him just in case.
3. Gustavo Chavez.  With ratings of 3-4-3 , Chavez isn’t bad.  He was in our rotation almost all of last year , going 10-12 with 4.39; but his ERA prior to the All Star break was tops on the entire team (he fell apart in the 2^nd half).  Chavez is a middle reliever to start the year for us , but there’s a good chance he’ll get to start at some point down the line.  Given that he’s an insurance option at this point in time , Chavez would come a little cheaper than the others above him.
4. Carlos Moreno..  His ratings are okay at 2-3-4 , but what you should really know about him is that he has a lifetime ERA of just 3.29 in 51 ML starts (almost all of which came with New York ).  We got him off of waivers at the end of last year , and we expected him to be our 4^th starter this season , but he struggled badly in spring training.  Still , we could easily see moving him up to our ML rotation at some point this year.
5. Dan Fulton.  With ratings of 2-4-3 , and potential of 4½ stars , Fulton is the prospect we got from L.A. in the Roy Abbott trade.  He’s scheduled to be our top starter in AAA Tacoma , with a chance for a call up later in the year.  One thing you should know about Fulton is that despite having such a high potential stars rating , he is already 28 , so he’s not a young prospect anymore.
6. Tucker Little..  He has ratings of 2-4-3 and a career record of 21-23 , 4.55.  He’s been getting better recently with a record of 8-6 with an ERA in the mid 3’s over the last 2 seasons with horrible San Antonio .  We signed him as a free agent this offseason with a chance to compete for a spot in our rotation , but he was mediocre in spring training.  I genuinely believe that Little is a completely adequate 5^th starter at this point in his career , and he would come cheapest of anyone on the list.  He is 29.

 

Let me know if you’re interested.  I don’t know exactly what I would want , so I leave the work of figuring out a deal to you.  I think I probably would want mL hitting (or maybe low level SP) prospects , although how good the prospects are would obviously turn on which player you’re looking at.

 

1985 Draft

December 3rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

TOP 5 PICKS

 

#1: Juan Herrera, SP, Miami.  Not as good as Miami's previous top picks (Carranza, Banks), but still a solid major league contributor who won 17 games in 1989.  Now washed up.

#2: Mike Carpenter, CF, Philadelphia.  Played for the Quakers from 1985-1989, going .240/15/42/82 in 1986.  Lots of tools, but horrible BA & OBP was his undoing.  Now washed up in A ball.

#3: Marcus Allen, SP, San Antonio.  Went 9-7 for Pittsbrugh in 1990.  Once again, San Antonio makes a poor pick.

#4: Stephen Norris, SP, Dallas.  Struggled through the minors for years before retiring last year.  Never made the majors.

#5: Kurt Wells, SS, Memphis.  A two-time All Star, one of the best SSs in EWB today.

 

Analysis: In retrospect, the 1983 Draft, which I previously said was weak, is starting to look stronger.  This top 5 should almost make you doubt the real value of a top 5 pick.  I will note this: during the mid 1980s, two teams that were consistently horrible and so who consistently had top picks were Miami and San Antonio.  The difference in their picks (in terms of future production) is stark.  You can really see why Miami surged while San Antonio didn't.

 

OTHER NOTABLE FIRST ROUNDERS

 

#7: Randall Helmick, CF, Chicago.  In his prime, one of the top 20 players in EWB.  About to be a free agent.

#10: Kun-yong Nam, C, Detroit.  Now the starter in Montreal.

#12: Orlando Torres, SS, Austin.  Utility man with 20+ HR power for the Marshalls.

#17: Alberto Lopez, SS, Las Vegas.  Starting SS for El Paso, traded to New York in 1993.

#25: Daniel Smith, 2B, Los Angeles.  Admirals' starter from 1991-present.

#26: Thomas Crosby, C, Los Angeles.  An above average EWB catcher.

#27: Jim Whitney, C, Washington D.C.  A below average EWB catcher.

#28: Rogert Thomas, SP, Boston.  A consistent 15 game winner for the Irish.

 

Analysis: Again, I'm thinking I need to revise my original analysis of 1983.  Maybe 1983 was average, 1984 exceptional, and 1985 pretty weak.

 

 

OTHER NOTABLE PICKS, OTHER ROUNDS

Round 2, Pick 1: Chuck Huff, CF, Denver.  Twice had 30+ HRs; now washed up.

Round 2, Pick 2: Pancho Montero, CF, Philadelphia.  Now with Cleveland, one of the better CFs in EWB.

Round 2, Pick 6: Emerson Agnew, CF, Los Angeles.  Just made a name for himself in the playoffs.

Round 2, Pick 8: Cris Rosario, CL, Indianapolis.  One of the better closers in the game today.

Round 2, Pick 27: Dave James, 2B, D.C.  A starting 2B for years for D.C.; now with New York.

Round 3, Pick 10: Chris Edgar, LF, Detroit.  Now a very good LF with Houston.

Round 3, Pick 15: Jesus Villanueva, CL, Pittsburgh.  A solid EWB closer.

Round 4, Pick 3: Antonio Cardenas, SP, San Antonio.  Won 16 games in 1992; 14 in 1993.

Round 4, Pick 21: Orlando Diaz, SP, Kansas City.  Taco.

Round 6, Pick 12: Ken McCarthy, CF, Austin.  Now with Detroit.

Round 6, Pick 16: John Boggs, 3B, Washington.  Admiral utility man for years now.

Round 6, Pick 24: Daniel Morgan, SP, St. Louis.  Occasional contender for the Gibson Award.

Round 7, Pick 7: Murray Morgan, SP, Omaha.  Now with New York.

Round 9, Pick 5: Jimmy Garrett, 3B, Memphis.  Finally, a star in this draft.

Round 10, Pick 11: Billy Perkins, SP, Atlanta.  A starter with Atlanta for years, now appears washed up in the minors.

Round 10, Pick 17: Rich Sawyer, RF, Omaha.  After several years with the Wolverines, a AAA All Star in 1993.

Round 11, Pick 4: Felix Rojas, SP, Dallas.  Came to Omaha after being released.

Round 13, Pick 28: Jesus Garcia, RF, Boston.  Had 17 HRs in both 1991 and 1992; now with Detroit.

Round 14, Pick 30: Roberto Guevara, 2B, New Orleans.  The 1989 Angel Rosa winner for L.A.

Round 15, Pick 4: Tokaji Yamashita, MR, Dallas.  The closer on the 1989 Admiral championship team.

Round 17, Pick 10: Don Bennet, 1B, Detroit.  Had 15+ HR several seasons in the early 1990s for Las Vegas.

Round 17, Pick 21: Carlos Flores, SS, Kansas City.  A 1991 All Star.

Round 21, Pick 17: Chi-ming Khu, RF, Omaha.  Lots of current Wolverines in this draft.

Round 22, Pick 25: Miguel Lara, MR, New York.  Closer for several years with the Diplomats in the early 1990s; now with Carolina.

Round 22, Pick 27: Ron Newton, C, D.C.  Again, lots of Wolverines.

 

Analysis: The mid round picks (Morgan, Garrett, Guevara, etc.) made this a better draft on the whole, but still fairly weak overall.

 

MORE FIRST ROUND ANALYSIS

# of players who made it to majors: 20 (66.7%).

# of players who were ML contributors: 12

# of players who were good players: 7

 

SECOND ROUND ANALYSIS

# of players who made it to majors: 15 (50%)

# of players who were ML contributors: 6

# of players who were good: 5

 

THIRD ROUND ANALYSIS

# of players who made it to the majors: 10 (33%)

# of players who were ML contributors: 4

# of players who were good: 2

 

TENTH ROUND ANALYIS

# of players who made it to the majors: 8

# of players who were ML contributors: 3

# of players who were good: 1

 

Analysis: Okay, so the results of the first round analysis are now looking pretty robust across multiple drafts.  Each time, about 65%-70% of the draftees make it to the majors at all, a little under 50% become solid major league contributors, and between 25% and 33% (or so) become good major leaguers.  This is interesting.  According to that St. Louis scout whose comments you linked to (Rob), he said about 66% or so of first round draftees in real baseball make it to the majors.  Interesting that EWB mirrors real life even on this point.  Given that this result now looks pretty well established, I'll drop first round analyses when I look at later drafts.

 

The second round results are also looking fairly robust.  Just under 50% or so of second rounders will make it to the majors; between, say, 20% and 40% become solid contributors; and about 15-20% become good.  These results are a little less consistent across drafts, so I'll still keep looking.

 

Added 3rd and 10th round picks here, just to see where noticeable drop off begins, and at what rate.

1993 Minor League Cuts: Washington

December 3rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Now that my minor league teams are out of the playoffs, I want to make some cuts to free up roster slots for players' to be drafted.  Here are those cuts, together with brief career obituaries.

 

AAA Tacoma

CF: Gustavo Rangel.  Was on our postseason roster in 1992.

RF: Bobby Bailey.  At one point in his mL career appeared to have some potential, but now he's regressing.

 

AA Trenton

LF: Rick Newman.  First round draft pick in 1990; was ranked ahead of Dale Reinert as a prospect when I took over.

3B: Francisco Pena.  Hit 20 HR in SA in 1990; now surpassed by many 3Bs in the system.

RF: Ruben Luna.  Saw some ML playing time in 1991 & 1992, and even some postseason playing time in '92.

SP: Charles Scuderi.  Italian.  Started 2 ML games in 1991 and made 2 other relief appearances.

MR: Juan Cruz.  Signed as mL free agent in 1989, never really amounted to much.

 

A Ralston

1B: Donald Bland.  Hit 16 HR in SA in 1991.  Now, regressing pretty badly.

3B: William Kendall.  Again, we now have too mnay good 3B ahead of him.

SP: Sergio "Ugly" Reteria.  Ugly has been in our mL system since 1986.  It's unfortunate that a player with such a good nickname never made it to the majors.

MR: Ivan Fernandez.  Been with us since 1987.

 

A High Desert

SP: Alex Dawson.  A 1985 draft pick who lost 22 games in his first year in pro ball.

SP: Will Alford.  A 1987 draft pick who lost 24 games in his first year in pro ball.  What the hell was going on in Quebradillas back in the mid 1980s?  How could we have so many pitchers losing so many games?

SP: Juan Segura.  A 1987 draft pick who lost "only" 15 games in his first year.

 

SA Everett

2B: Arturo Reyes.  When I took over in 1990, he had 4-1-4 potential ratings (contact-power-eye).  Given his spectacular speed and defense, if he had realized that potential he would've been our ML 2B for 10 years.

CF: Marcel Lafreniere.  For a CF to get cut by our organization, you have to be absolutely horrible.  Lafreniere is.

C: Rafael Sanchez.  Had a 28 game hitting streak in 1992; also, was once suspended 5 games for arguing a strike call.

SP: Jonathon Brooks.  An innings eater we signed just this year.

 

R Quebradillas

SS: Jorge Calvillo.  A filler player signed with the 1992 mL roster expansion.

SP: Guillermo Lopez.  An innings eater we signed just this year.

 

That's 20 players in all, including 9 pitchers.  We will also release Min-chul Pak and Carlos Lopez soon, but if we had an injury catastrophe in the playoffs there's an outside chance we could bring them up, so we don't want to do those moves yet.

Game 5 Notes

December 3rd, 2008 by Banditos GM

Couple of things:

- First, Jack McKeon apparently didn't get the memo about the Hinkle/Ouellette Lineup change.  Hinkle started the game and proceeded to go 0-5 to raise his playoff total to 0-20.  To his credit he did get a Fielder's Choice, RBI, and a Run.  Ouellete will start game 6.

- Yes, this was a total ass kicking.  Omaha had a meltdown.  Miami DID hit really well, but it was more than that, Omaha committed horrible errors, wild pitches, missed double plays and gave up a shitload of infield hits.  It looks like the pressure is really getting to the inexeperienced players and manager, whereas the seasoned Miami team and Manager are thriving.  This is also compounded by the fact that Omaha is trying to win in Miami.  Now that they have an off day and fly back to Omaha, they may be able to settle down.

- There was an 18 MPH wind blowing IN from Right Field.  Yes that is correct, Ken Bryant bombed 2 HR's INTO the 18 MPH wind.  Whereas, Morgan's 2 HR's were down the line in left and probably aided by the wind. 

- Miami had a couple of questionable bullpen moves.  First to relieve Morris they brought in Juan Sardina.  Now normally that's not a problem he is slotted at my #2 Setup behind Halter.  What was the problem is that going into the game, only 2 bullpen members were fatigued, Sardina and Matt Martin.  When Sardina came into the game we also had a 6 run lead, so not sure why McKeon was putting in the fatigued Sardina when he could easily have used a rested Halter, a rested Brooks (who should've have been considered as a mop up type) or Francisco Rodriguez also rested and Townsend.  Perhaps McKeon was worried about Halter's recent performances against Omaha, fine, then throw somebody else in!  Hell it's a mop up situation.

- The second questionable move was bringing Lou Bennett into the game in the top of the 9th with 1 out.  So was he trying to get a 16 run save, needing only to get 2 outs?!  Maybe he wanted to keep Bennett loose and not rusty.  This I could understand especially since there was an offday after Game 5.  But still, really?  Can't he just pitch a little in practice, especially given his heart attack tendencies which would have risen his pitch count in that situation?

-  Overall, we are optimistically cautious.  Our biggest concern is the Home Field of Omaha and perhaps a weakness in SP matchups.  Although, now I'm convinced that we have the advantage with Forest Thomas.  Problem is that if we don't win the next game, we go to Game 7 in Omaha, versus Ed Jackson, and we throw who!?  Stinson, Dewalt, Clark?!  Fuck if I know, hopefully a dilemma Forest can erase for us.

Jim Rice

December 2nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

I was reading a Yankee blog today, and the topic of discussion was the Hall of Fame.

 

One thing I had sort of lost track of is that one of the reasons Jim Rice has had trouble making it into the Hall of Fame is that even though he was good at the traditional statistics (BA/HR/RBI), he was not very good (or at least not Hall-Worthy) at the Sabermetric statistics, particularly OBP.  So, for instance, his career OBP of .352 is just 1 point above Walt Weiss's career OBP of .351.  So, if OBP is your standard, Rice is barely more Hall-worthy than Weiss.  (By comparison, Rice's career BA was .298 while Weiss's was .258.)

 

For reasons indicated in my previous post, I think this is unforunate: an RBI guy like Rice shouldn't have a good OBP (more exactly: he shouldn't have an OBP much better than his BA).  But setting that aside, another point I wanted to make is this.  There are now a whole bunch of different Sabermetric stats based partly on OBP: VORP, Runs Created, Runs Created/27 Outs, Win Share, etc.  Look at all these stats, and you'll see that Rice doesn't rank that highly.  But this is a kind of illusion: it creates the impression that there were many dimensions along which Rice sucked: he sucked at OBP, and he sucked at VORP, and he sucked at Runs Created, and he sucked at Win Share, etc.

 

But, in truth, there's only one thing he sucked at: drawing walks.  And this one bad trait is what keeps all those other stats down for him.  Put this way, the case for Rice is stronger.  Rice was really good at various things: BA, HR, RBI, etc.  Is the fact that he wasn't Hall-of-Fame caliber at drawing walks enought to keep him out of the Hall of Fame? 

EWB

December 2nd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Yeah, Kingman does seem pretty EWB-like.

 

By the way, your theory that OBP corresponds to longevity (in EWB at least) sounds like it might have a ring of truth to it, to me.  There's 2 ways it could work.

 

1. It's a good thing to have as many talents as possible, especially if they're independent.  That way, even if one talent slips via age, the other talent might remain high.  Take David Kimble as a case in point.  He started off with a talent for both contact & eye: 5-5.  With age, his contact talent fell (it dropped to 3 by the time he was 28, and never went above that), but his eye talent remained a 5 to this day.  Because of that, Kimble was able to play as a starter until age 37.  By the way, something like this is the theory of aging players in that Baseball Between the Numbers book: players age best if they have a multitude of skills rather than extreme talent on just 1.

 

2. It could be that having a good eye somehow causes (or at least is correlated with) your other ratings to stay high across your career (in EWB).  So, for instance, if your rating is 4-4 contact-power and you have a 5 eye, expect those contact-power ratings to stay high until you're 37 or so.  If your rating is 4-4 and you have a 2 eye, though, expect those contact-power ratings to slip even when you're just 30, say.  Anecdotally, my impressions is that this might be right.  Porter Scott still has 4-3 ratings at age 39 (the same ratings he's had for the last 10 years or so), and he has a 5 eye.  Meanwhile, Ken Bryand and his bad eye are slipping.  Perhaps an even more telling case is Dave Tyler, who's had 3-4 ratings for years and a 5 eye.  The reason I say it's more telling is that Scott might be an outlier in that he's a Hall of Famer -- an exceptional talent, and so don't draw any general conclusions from him.  Tyler hit .232/23/76 this year, which is remarkably close to his level of production in every full season since 1987.  At age 35, Tyler has seen formerly better hitters (like, say, Will Lund) diminish beneath him, while he keeps chugging along at almost the exact same level.  Why is Tyler so consistent?  Maybe it's because he has a good eye.

 

If 2 is right, think of this as a warning for the Wolverines' Ricardo Hernandez: your days may be numbered.

1984 Draft

December 1st, 2008 by Admirals GM

Part II in a series...

 

TOP 5 PICKS

 

#1: George Banks, SP, Miami.  Arguably the greatest #1 pick ever.  The standard against which all elite pitching prospects are measured.

 

#2: Steven Ferguson, SP, Dallas.  Think of it like this.  You win 2 Gibson Awards (or are soon to do so), and you're still only the 2nd best picher taken in your round.

 

#3: Henry Winman, RF, Philadelphia.  At one point, the top ranked offensive player in EWB.  This is an excellent top 3.

 

#4: Artie Quilter, SP, Indianapolis.  Suffered a career-ending back injury in his 2nd pro season (1985).

 

#5: Quinn Jackson, 1B, Atlanta.  A solid major league first baseman.

 

Analysis: Excellent.  Huge difference from the top of the 1983 class.

 

 

OTHER NOTABLE FIRST ROUND PICKS

 

#8: Marv Cartwright, 1B, Boston.  Yet another Boston-drafted first baseman.

 

#16: Scotty Lamb, SS, Kansas City.  Starting SS for Houston in 1993.

 

#18: Darryl Bryant, RF, Omaha.  Angel Rosa winner.

 

#21: Freddie Flemming: CF, Houston.  Became one of the top CFs in the game.

 

#22: Joe Porter, LF, Washington.  Had a cup of coffee with Dallas in 1989 and 1991.  Presently, an un-signed free agent.  Nice job, Admirals.

 

#23: Pietro Mollica, 3B, Los Angeles.  Starting 3B for Cleveland in 1993.

 

#24: Tim Hilton, 3B, Cleveland.  Now with Portland, has been surpassed by their young 3Bs.  Has shown some power in the past though (22 HR in 1992).

 

Overall, a pretty good group.

 

OTHER NOTABLE PICKS, ANY ROUND

 

Round 2, Pick 1: Jeff Brown, LF, Miami.  Went .259/33/110 in his rookie year of 1988 with Miami, and then .240/25/94 in 1989.  The Banditos then traded him to Detroit, for whom he's been a pinch hitter ever since.  Another good Miami pick.

Round 2, Pick 12: Joseph Leroux, C, Minneapolis.  Traded to Atlanta for 3 Fingers Juarez, Leroux has been the Confederates' starting catcher off and on since 1987.

Round 2, Pick 21: Glenn Hill, 2B, Houston.  Now with Portland.  About to become a free agent.

Round 2, Pick 29: Phil O'Roddam, CF, Memphis.  Not an offensive force, but has won 3 straight gold gloves for the Razorbacks from 1990-1992.

Round 3, Pick 1: Tom Delzoppo, 2B, Miami.  Another excellent Bandito pick.  Puts Delzoppo in a new perspective to remember he's in the same draft class as Banks.

Round 3, Pick 3: Enrique Alvarez, LF, Philadelphia.  A solid starter for Memphis in 1993.

Round 3, Pick 16: Felix Mateo, RF, Kansas City.  Spent 1993 with Cleveland.  Over 100 EWB HRs.

Round 3, Pick 27: Ernie Owen, SP, New Orleans.  Add him to Banks and Ferguson and you have a great pitching class.

Round 4, Pick 3: Luis Gomez, SP, Indianapolis.  A curious case.  In 1989 was rated an 11 point pitcher and went 17-8/2.87 for the Black Jacks (following up a solid 1988).  That offseason, his ratings dropped to 8 points, and Indianapolis immediately demoted him to AAA.  Never pitched in the majors again after his spectacular 1989 season.  Now retired.

Round 4 Pick 22: Roger Wright, SP, Washington.  Now washed up, but once a great starter.

Round 4, Pick 26: Doug Birch, C, Pittsburgh.  An MVP candidate with St. Louis in 1992.  One of the best catchers in the game.

Round 5, Pick 8: Russell Grimes, 1B, Boston.  Had some good years with Minneapolis, where he's now on the bench.  Again: Boston is a 1B factory.

Round 6, Pick 2: Pedro Luna, C, Dallas.  For awhile, was an above average major league starter for the Brahmas.  Spent 1993 in AAA though.

Round 12, Pick 8: Reginald Wilson, SP, Boston.  The Janitor.

Round 12, Pick 17: Carlos Moreno, SP, New York.  Had some nice years with the 5 points before bombing with the Admirals.

Round 13, Pick 10: Rodger Rogers, SP, Austin.  Just now coming into his prime.

Round 13, Pick 22: Gerald Latham, CF, Washington.  Rimfire.

Round 15, Pick 1: Ben Stinson, SP, Miami.  Another Bandito contributor.

Round 16, Pick 16: Ed Hartley, SP, Kansas City.

Round 18, Pick 10: Mark Jackson, RF, Austin.  Another Admiral outfielder.

Round 19, Pick 25.  Dan Dawson, C, Cincinnati.  The top ranked C in the game today.  Cincinnati drafts their own talent well.

Round 22, Pick 9: Kenneth Leadbeater, 1B, Las Vegas.  Now a starter with Minneapolis.

Round 22, Pick 25: Cesar Mejia, RP, Cincinnati.  Contender for Fireman of the Year in 1993 with D.C.

Round 25, Pick 3: Lowell McDaniel, RF, Philadelphia.  A starter in 1993, prior to injury.

Round 25, Pick 6: Miguel Torres, RF, Portland.  Now a Bandito, Torres ranks as one of the better 25th round draft picks in recent times.

Round 25, Pick 26: Ken Milligan, MR, Washington.  A pretty good player.

 

 

MORE FIRST ROUND ANALYSIS

20 of the 30 picks made it to the majors (66.7%), including each of the first 8 offensive players taken.

15 of those 20 were significant contributors in the majors.

9 were quite solid.

 

SECOND ROUND ANALYSIS

14 of the 30 picks made it to the majors (just under 50%)

12 of the 14 were significant contributors

Maybe 2 count as quite solid

 

25TH ROUND ANALYSIS

6 of the 30 picks made it to the majors

5 were significant contributors

Maybe 1 counts as quite solid.

 

Overall: A much better draf than 1983.  I feel like I'm now starting to get a real sense for the value of a pick.  Based on 1983/1984, a first round pick has about a 70% chance of making it to the majors, about a 50% chance of being an actual major league contributor -- that is, someone who can stay on a roster for a full season -- and maybe a 25-30% chance of becoming quite solid, meaning an average to above average (including all the way up to Hall of Fame) starter.  A 2nd round pick has more like a 40% chance of making it to the majors.  Don't yet have a great feel for later rounds.

Revisiting the 1983 Draft

December 1st, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here is the first in a series of posts I've been meaning to get to.  I want to look back at prior drafts to get a better sense of what expectations one should have regarding the draft.  I start with 1983 just because it's 10 years ago.

 

TOP 5 Picks:

 

#1: Mark Calhoun, SP, to San Antonio.  Lifetime record of 13-34 with a 5.29 ERA in time split between San Antonio and Carolina; lost 23 games in 1989; in his first available scouts' rating, only a 9 point potential pitcher, which makes me think he lost points prior to that rating.  Presently, an unsigned free agent.  Nice pick, Aztecas.

 

#2: Luis Carranza, RF, Miami.  We all know his story.

 

#3: Matt "Kingfish" Hall, CF, Philadelphia.  Peak year was1988, when he went .246/17/58.  Played for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.  Career .244 hitter.  Currently, an unsigned free agent.

 

#4: Julian Torres, SP, Atlanta.  Career record of 17-22, 4.65.  Last appeared in the majors in 1988.  Presently, retired.

 

#5: Kevin Beard, SP, Chicago.  Never reached the majors.  At his peak, 11 point potential; made it to an 8 pt. pitcher in the minors.  Presently: retired.

 

Overall, an underwhelming group, which almost makes you question the value of a top 5 pick.  Given the picks involved, makes it understandable how Miami rebounded to become the best team in the AL, while San Antonio (among others) continued to flounder.

 

OTHER NOTABLE FIRST ROUNDERS

 

#6: Scott Laws, SP, Cincinnati.  The 1992 Angel Rosa winner, who didn't reach the majors for good until he was 26.  Puts his story in a different perspective to realize he was drafted in the same class as Luis Carranza, who's been around for years.

 

#11: Drew Brown, SP, Omaha.  Released by the Wolverines and signed by D.C., Brown has a lifetime record of 76-81, 4.01.  Won 16 games in 1990 and 15 games in 1991.  Relegated to bullpen duty in 1993.

 

#12: John Hennesey, 1B, Austin.  Did you know that Hennesey was traded by Austin because he was behind Will Lund?  That's how he became an Azteca.

 

#18: Gerald Lewis, 2B, Boston.  His story is well known.

 

#21: Tim Myers, LF, Washington.  Suffered a career-ending ankle injury during August of his first year in pro ball (1983 itself).  The first in what's bound to be many bad draft stories for the Admirals.

 

#22: Gavin James, CF, Miami.  The Banditos get credit for landing another bona fide major leaguer in the first round.  They really could draft back then.

 

Again, strikes me as a fairly weak group.

 

OTHER NOTABLE PLAYERS, ANY ROUND

 

Round 2, Pick 4: Emilio Romano, SP, Cincinnati.  Known.

Round 2, Pick 7: Gustavo Rangel, CF, St. Louis.  Notable only because he was on my playoff roster last year.

Round 2, Pick 21: Roy Wilson, LF, Washington.  Hey, we did better in the 2nd round.

Round 5, Pick 11: Doug Kelly, SP, Omaha.  I forgot that Kelly started with the Wolverines.  They released him after his first year, at which point Washington signed him.

Round 6, Pick 5: Jonathan Heller, LF, Cincinnati.  Hit .346 this year for the Rebels.

Round 6, Pick 15: Cliff Webb, Cleveland.  Forgot that he started out with Cleveland.

Round 7, Pick 5: Blair Mitchell, SP, Chicago.  Presently, the (injured) ace of Cincinnati.

Round 8, Pick 4: Lee Smith, SP, Atlanta.  Still with the Confederates.

Round 8, Pick 23: Claudio Acuna, SP, New York.  Traded around a lot, now an effective pitcher with Kansas City.

Round 12, Pick 28: Kevin Morris, SP, Pittsburgh.  Developed nicely.

Round 15, Pick 5: Juan Delgado, 1B, Chicago.  An abover average 1B in EWB.

Round 15, Pick 19: Cory Banks, RF, Boston.  At one point, one of the best BA hitters in the league.

Round 17, Pick 11: Leon Rosario, MR, Omaha.  Good player for this late in the draft.

Round 19, Pick 18: Rafael Cortes, C, Denver.  The starting C on last year's World Champion Marshalls.

Round 19, Pick 25: Tony Marino, C, Kansas City.  Now with Pittsburgh, one of the top C's in all of EWB.

Round 21, Pick 1: George Love, 1B, San Antonio.  A starting 1B, though one of the lesser starters.

Round 21, Pick 9: Donald Wilson, 3B, Dallas.  Perhaps the best late pick in this draft. 

Round 22, Pick 8: Brandon "Maniac" Powell, C, Portland.  The last solid offensive contributor in the draft

Round 23, Pick 17: Reynaldo Salinas, MR, Austin.  The 1993 NL Fireman of the year.

 

Some depth here, but still on the whole a fairly weak draft, it seems to me.

 

MORE FIRST ROUND ANALYSIS

21 out of 30 picks made the majors (almost 70%).

17 were significant contributors, while the other 4 just got cups of coffee.

5 became quite solid players.

 

SECOND ROUND ANALYSIS

10 of 30 picks made the majors (just 33%).

5 were significant contributors.

4 were quite solid players.

 

25th ROUND ANALYIS

2 pitchers and no position players made the majors.  1 was a significant contributor.

 

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

 

The drop off in terms of major leaguers from the 1st to the 2nd round was pretty stark.  As you can see, the 25th round didn't turn up much at all; this year at least, teams were just wasting their time on it.  As we will see next time (1984), there are other drafts where the top 5 was way more productive.

Re: Game 4

December 1st, 2008 by Banditos GM

- Justin once again messes my player's name up, it's Steve Halter not Shane.  I don't bring this up to correct Justin once again, I've given that up, but instead to ask:  Does Shane Halter ring a bell to you guys?   For some reason it sounds familiar, maybe from high school or sometime.  Maybe I'm off and just thinking of Mike Holder, who I recalled trying to remember the name "Shane Halter"

-  The blurb on CERA provoked me to do something I've been thinking about doing.  I'm going to bench Hicks for Fields, at least for the next game.  Like Hinkle, Hicks is really, really struggling and Fields can't do worse but will help defensively.

- Yeah, I pretty much agree that the computer overvalues some of these Eye guys.  On a somewhat related note, how do you think aging and progression affect offensive ratings?  Do you think EYE can be valuable because it leads to a longer career?  The only reason I ask is it seems like these guys like Bryant, Geoffrey Williams etc.  flame out faster.  I don't have any hard evidence or anything but with pitchers, control usually sticks around through age.  I wonder if their is an offensive stat that is similar to control for pitchers.  If there was I would guess it would be Eye.

- Finally, Justin, Mike and I plan on doing Yugma tomorrow night.  Probably around 8;30 or 9 EST.  So let me know if you think you'll be available.  The times aren't set in stone, we can work around your schedule but personally I won't be able to start before at least 830.

Re: Overrating OBP

December 1st, 2008 by Banditos GM

One thing I just thought of:

- Yes, the computer runs 27 out of the 30 teams, and by the computer I mean the AI.  So you would think that it's pretty standard across those teams and that the GM is kind of eyecandy.  Fun to talk about but impact may be negligible.  But then I remembered that each GM has different scales of preference and so maybe some GM's are willing to pay more for EYE and go after those players, while others like AVG or Power etc.

- When I get some free time this week I'm going to take a look at the GM's and post some info about them.  Which ones have which preferences and whether it's noticeable in their decision making.

- Teaser:  Since San Antonio and Cardona are the topic du jour, let's look at GM Pablo Lara.  Lara on a scale of AVG-OBP (AVG being 1, and OBP being 10) prefers OBP around 8.5 or 9.  His other preferences are closer to the middle but he leans to pitching over offense, is totally neutral on veterans vs prospects, is neutral on offense vs. defense, and has a very slight lean towards speed over power.

---

Overrating OBP

November 30th, 2008 by Admirals GM

This is a variation on a familiar theme, but I've got a new twist.

 

Again, here's my theory: eye/OBP is overrated in the game.

 

So, e.g., a player like Enrique Cardona, who is all eye, is overrated.  When I say "overrated," I mean both with respect to player rankings, and with respect to salary, which will be my focus here.  Don't get me wrong.  I think eye/OBP are good things.  BUT, I think the computer overpays for these good things.

 

Here's a corollary to my theory: players with low eye/OBP are underrated.

 

Again, they are underrated both with respect to rankings, but also with respect to salary.  My point isn't that low eye/low OBP are good things; my point is just that you can get "deals" on such players.

 

I think Ricardo Hernandez is an example of this.  In 1992, Hernandez went .341/22/77, leading the league in BA.  In 1993, he went .328/28/126, leading the league in hits and finishing 3rd in RBIs.  He's had 200 hit seasons in 3 of his past 4 years.  And yet, he's underrated, because he only has a 2 eye, and because his OBP is very ordinary (.364 this year, which is above average, but that's all; in 1991, he had a .338 OBP, which was below the league average).  W/r/t position rankings, I can't tell you how Hernandez stacks up, because Frank Patterson is ranked more highly than him, and so it's Patterson who's listed.  I can say this: Hernandez can be no better than the #16th rated 1B given that Patterson is ranked #15.  But there's no way this is legitimate.  There's no way that Hernandez is behind Ken Dennis, the #5 ranked 1B for D.C. who has 3-2 contact-power ratings but a 5 eye.  (In fairness, Dennis did go .325/17/67/.420 OBP this year, but I would still take Hernandez by a wide margin).  More importantly for Omaha, Hernandez' bad eye makes him a bargain.  Scheduled to be a free agent in the offseason, he re-signed for just $3.9M per year.  That's nothing, for a hitter of his caliber.

 

Another underrated player with a bad eye is Ken Bryant: 2 eye.  Bryant slipped a bit this year, and put up only a .288 OBP and a 9.9 VORP.  Those are not good things.  But on the other hand, he did still manage 31 home runs and 129 RBIs, good enough for 2nd best in the whole AL.  Despite this, Bryant is ranked as the #24 first baseman in EWB.  He's behind such luminaries as Tommy Wilson (.288/11/75 for Detroit) and Brian Whitesides (.289/10/46 for Minneapolis).  In addition, Bryant just signed an extension for 2 years @ roughly $3.6 per year.  Again, that's a bargain.

 

I don't think you want a team stocked full of low OBP players, and moreover I think you probably want your best offensive players to have good OBP/eye.  But, it seems to me that if you're signing a free agent or re-signing a present player, and you aren't looking for a top of the lineup hitter or an overall star, a good strategy to employ is to pursue bad eye players, because that way you'll find bargains.

 

Along these lines, a free agent to keep an eye on this upcoming offseason is Marv Cartwright.  Cartwright is rated 4-4 contact-power, but just 2 eye.  This past year he went .325/31/116, but with just a .339 OBP, which is below the league average.  Cartwright is presently the #10 ranked 1B, sandwiched between Juan Delgado of Chicago at #9, and Cliff Webb of Philadelphia at #11.  Both Delgado and Webb have recently signed new contracts (Delgado via extention, Webb via free agency), so perhaps we can get a sense of what sort of money Cartwright will receive by looking at these two.  Webb signed a 7-year-deal worth $5.8M per year.  The 7 years is ridiculuous, but the dollar amount isn't.  If a team could get Cartwright at $5.8M per, that would be a decent deal, in my view.  In addition, I would mention that Webb has a 5 eye, and so there may be a reasonable chance Cartwright will be able to get less, even though he's ranked one notch above Webb.  Delgado just signed a 3 year extension worth about $4.4M per year.  I doubt you can get Webb this cheap; this is the virtue of extensions as opposed to outright free agents.  Delgado too has a 5 eye, though, which explains to me why for years he's been a highly ranked 1B despite putting up pretty meagre stat lines (with the exception of OBP).

 

Projecting then, it might be possible to sign Cartwright as a free agent this year for as little as $5.5M per year, or so.

 

Omaha will not sign Cartwright; they have Hernandez and Patterson.  I doubt Miami will either; they have Rollins and Bryant.  For Washington, there's an outside chance if we don't re-sign Porter Scott, but I doubt it will happen.  What's most likely is that some computer GM will end up signing Cartwright thinking that he's a middle-of-the-pack 1B, and then get better-than-paid production out of him (not that the GM will then appreciate that production, but he'll get it).  I'm not going to predict Minneapolis will sign him, but I will say that if they did, it would be a shrewd, shrewd move.  They have the required salary room, what their team needs most is offense, their 1B is weak (Whitesides), and Cartwright would be a deal.  Let's see if Egghead strikes again.

The Curious Case of Enrique Cardona

November 30th, 2008 by Admirals GM

So, I was looking over San Antonio's roster and chances for next year, just to see if they have any chance of turning things around, and I notice that their third highest player is Enrique Cardona, who made $3.8M in 1993.  This isn't an absolutely horrible investment, but it isn't a good one either.  Cardona went .278/11/59 in 1993, which is decent for a catcher, but hardly sensational.  His ratings are 3-4-2-5-2, so 3-2 contact-power, which is pretty ordinary.  The 5 eye admittedly stands out, and it led to Cardona drawing 90 walks this year, to push his OBP up to .401, which is very good, but still not all that amazing.  And his defense sucks: 3 at catcher, 3 arm, leading Cardona to throw out just 25.6% of opposing baserunners. 

 

But here's the thing.  The computer LOVES Cardona, for whatever reason.  When Cardona made $3.8M this past year, that wasn't based on some sort of misguided deal San Antonio handed out years ago.  That's how much an arbitration judge award him this past offseason.  It's a story unto itself that Cardona, who's 32, is still eligible for arbitration.  The guy has been around the majors since 1983 back when he was 22, but in a number of years throughout the 1980s Cardona spent only part of the season in the majors, spending the other portion of the year in AAA.  As recently as 1990, at age 29, he was still spending most of the year in AAA, in fact. He became a starting catcher just in 1991, at age 30.  And think about this.  Cardona is among the career leaders for TWO SEPARATE AAA organizations.  His 130.2 career VORP ranks tops all-time for the Oregon Battle Axes, AAA affiliate for San Antonio; while his 145.6 lifetime VORP ranks 2nd for the Las Vegas Octopuses, AAA affiliate for Dallas, and for whom he played for 1982-1985.  (#1 for the Octopuses is the immortal Jeremy Randolph, a 2B who played 10 years for Dallas but accumulated just 521 lifetime at bats, again because he spent most of each of those 10 years in AAA.)

 

Given his background, Cardona has a pretty nice story going: persist and persist in AAA without being given a chance, only to finally breakthrough in his early 30s.  The thing that sort of tains his Cinderella story is now he's wildly overrated by the computer.  Again, the $3.8M he was awarded in arbitration is one indicator.  Another is the fact that Cardona is now ranked as the #8 Catcher in all of EWB.  He's ahead of Jose Hernandez of Memphis, who was an All Star as a rookie in 1992 and hit .256/37/112 in 1993; he's ahead of Doug Birch of St. Louis, who competed for the MVP last year and was still decent this year at .275/20/69 (and Birch plays 10-9 defense); and also Leo Kennedy, Geoffrey Barnes, George McFarland, and of course Jose Rodriguez and Jeff Hicks.  Here's another way to put the point.  The only catchers ranked above Cardona are Dan Dawson (#1), Clinton Picot (#2), Jose Ortiz (#3), Tony Marino, Forest O'Herlihy, Graciano Silveiros, and Harris Hartley, and each of those players is VERY good.

 

There is no way in hell that Cardona is the 8th best catcher in baseball.  I think the rankings are getting screwed up by his incredible eye, which again is a nice feature, but hardly makes up for his poor defense and mediocre bat (to say nothing of his horrible speed).  Cardona is projected to make $3.6M in arbitration in 1994.  That's his last year of arbitration.  It will be a test for San Antonio's competence as an organization whether they decide to offer him a longterm deal.

 

One more thing on San Antonio.  Did you notice that they traded for Steffen Larsen of New Orleans right behind the trading deadline?  Larsen is pretty good -- an 11 pt. closer who had 23 Saves and a 2.50 ERA in time split between N.O. and S.A.  He's only 27 and all that San Antonio had to give up to get him was a minor league scrub who doesn't project to be even a borderline major leaguer.  I had been keeping an eye on Larsen during the year because I thought I might try to trade for him as my closer, and I would have tried if Cory Davidson struggled in the closer role.  Thing is, I would have expected (and been willing) to give up far, far more than what San Antonio gave up.  I would have been willling to give up Brit Murphy (when he was healthy) or perhaps B.J. Keller or Jose Rivera, outfield prospects who made BA's top 100.  So give San Antonio credit, they finally appear to have made a nice trade.

Austin/Cincinnati Matchup

November 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here's a write-up of the series, so far...

 

Main thing: the series is tied 2-2.

 

Austin has been getting some horrible performances from their starters.  In game 2, Bill Fitzpatrick went just 1.2 IP, giving up 5 ER on 2 HR.  In Game 3, Roger Rodgers was even worse, giving up 5 ER in just 0.1 IP.  And then, in Game 4, Jay Dickey gave up 5 ER in 4.2 IP -- a 9.64 ERA.  Austin was able to come back and win Dickey's start in Game 4, thanks to Scott Laws' own meltdown for Cincinnati.

 

Joe Warren has been Joe Warren, leading everyone in the series with 6 RBIs in the first 4 Games.  In Game 1, with Austin down 2-1 in the 7th, Warren hit a 3 run HR to take the lead.

 

Austin seems to be going with a bullpen by committee: Reynaldo Salinas (NL Fireman of the Year) Saved Game 1, while Daniel Waller (30-year-old journeymany) saved Game 4, with Salinas acting as his setup man.

 

For Cincinnati, Chad Church has been the biggest offensive force, batting .314 with 2 HR and 4 RBI.  (No one else in the series has 2 HR.)

 

The best start of the series so far was by Gibson-contender Hee-seop Pak of Cincinnati, who went 6 IP giving up just 1 ER in a Game 3 win.  Some wondered whether Pak's fairytale story would end once the playoffs started.  So far, he's looking good.

 

Catcher Dan Dawson has had a solid bat in the series (just as he did in the regular season), but is really struggling defensively.  In the 4 games, he's given up 8 SB while nabbing just 1 runner for a CS, and he's also committed an error.  Dawson had defensive struggles throughout the year.  He caught only 30.6% of all baserunners, and perhaps even more telling, his catcher's ERA was just 3.98, as compared to a 2.83 mark for his backup.  That's a huge difference: every time Cincinnati goes out with Dawson as their starter, they're giving up more than 1 run defensively, according to this stat.  By the way, catcher's ERA is an under-discussed statistic for us.  Taken by itself, it's probably not a great measure, since it's so highly dependent on how good your pitching staff is.  But it can be interesting to compare starter's CERA to backups.  To drop out of series analysis for a second, here are the stats for our 3 teams... OMAHA: Rodriguez, 4.21; Newton 3.88; so Rodriguez is -0.33 as compared to his backup (that's how many runs he as catchers costs the team per game, if you believe the stat; also, both catchers are bad at SBs).  MIAMI: Hicks, 4.12; Fields, 3.98; so Hicks is -0.14 (in addition, while Hicks is solid at preventing SBs, Fields is really excellent, with 46.6); finally, WASHINGTON: Kennedy, 3.91; Wells, 4.08; so Kennedy is +0.17.  (However, defensive specialist Carlos Lopez was our backup earlier in the year, and his CERA was 2.93, so compared to Lopez Kennedy is -1.05, a huge, huge difference.  Lopez also had an excellent 46.2% nabbing runners.  We're hoping Wells, who's rated 10-10, can become the defensive specialist as a backup that Lopez has been for us.)

 

Game 5 Matchup is Nicholas Knowles for Austin (acquired from Las Vegas during the year) vs. Miguel Gonzalez for Cincinnati.  Too close to call.  For Austin, the real storyline has to be their top starters: Fitzpatrick and Rodgers are scheduled to start games 6 and 7, and both were absolutely horrible in their first starts in the series.  If they pitch the way they're capable (and the way you would otherwise suspect), it's hard not to like Austin's chances.  If they pitch as they just did, though, then Cincinnati will win.  Incidentally, I wonder if Marshalls fans are wishing the team had kept Norman Banks, their ace last year who might have been more of a veteran presence come playoff time, and thus less prone to meltdown.  (In Austin's defense, both Fitzpatrick and Rodgers pitched well in the playoffs last year.)

Game 4: Omaha v. Miami

November 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM

By the way, I read the Game Log, and it looked like a pretty dramatic game.

 

Obviously, Gerald Lewis's goathood is the story of the game.  Fortunately for him, he has time in the series to make up for it.  Other thoughts...

 

Shane Halter has really been struggling in the playoffs so far: in his 2 appearances, he has 1 loss, 2 blown Saves, a 67.57 ERA, a 9.01 WHIP, and an opponents' batting average of .714.  I would say the Wolverines have him figured out.

 

Punk Perez, can't be blamed too much for the loss, given that his run was unearned.  I note, though, that he has struggled in the playoffs before: no Miami fan will forget the 1990 World Series anytime soon.  (In Perez' defense, his career postseason ERA is 1.06, and the only earned runs he's ever given up were on that fateful 2-run HR.)

 

Ricardo Hernandez had 7 (!) LOB in the game.  In each of his first 4 at bats, he came up with runners in scoring position (including once with runners on both 2nd and 3rd, and once with the bases loaded), and failed to deliver.

 

Miami had 3 GDP.  Francisco Neri himself had 2.  Obviously, he made up for it in the 9th.

 

Shawn Carr has pitched in 3 of the 4 games in the series.  Everytime he's pitched well.  There may be some fatigue concerns for the Wolverine bullpen in Game 5, though.  Carr has now pitched in back-to-back games: he went 1.1 IP and 25 pitches in Game 3 (earning the Save), and 1 IP with 15 Pitches in Game 4.  I know Carr had 131 IP out of the bullpen this year, but given that he had "just" 73 games, I guarantee you he didn't often pitch 3 straight days.  In addition, Punk Perez threw 21 pitches in Game 4, which is a lot for a closer.  Meanwhile for Miami, both Martin and Halter might be iffy for Game 5, given their recent workloads.  Think of it like this.  True, there are more offdays during the playoffs, which allows teams to shorten their rotations and bullpens.  BUT, Game 5 is the 1 time in an entire series when you're playing for the 3rd staight day, and so there's bound to be more fatigue concerns in Game 5 than in any other game.  Keep an eye both on whether certain pitchers get used at all, and also on whether they're as effective if they do pitch.

 

Overall, this has been a pretty good series.  3 of the 4 games have been decided by 1 run, while the other game (Game 1) was decided by 2.  2 of the games were decided by late lead changes (8th or 9th inning), while the 2 others had their moments of late drama.  Obviously, Game 5 is huge.

Re: Miami Moves

November 29th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Hinkle kind of sucks anyway.  Yeah, he batted .283 this year, but only had a .343 OBP, which is just barely over the league average of .340.  Far worse, his SLUG was horrible -- he had just 15 2Bs and 1 HR in 410 AB, giving him a pathetic .327 SLUG and a not much better .670 OPS.  And somehow he lost his ability to steal: 16 SB in 1992, but 4 SB & 4 CS in 1993.  All total, it adds up to a 4.4 VORP.  I would say his career as a starter is pretty much over.  He might be able to stick around the majors a few years as a backup, or shuttle between EWB and AAA, but even that's not for sure.

 

By the way, this might be a little over the top, but Rob has a history of saying how my lesser starters suck (Gustavo Chavez, Leo Kennedy, Daniel Smith), so I thought I would return the favor.

Miami Moves

November 29th, 2008 by Banditos GM

We are going to take Ryan Hinkle out of the starting lineup.  He'll be replaced by Ouellette who will play SS, Castaneda will move to 1B and Neri will move to 2B where he won a Gold Glove in the past.  Delzoppo will remain at 3B.  This move will be at a minimum an upgrade at defense and Ouellette can't do worse than Hinkle offensively.

Re: Random Thoughts PART II

November 27th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here's my own random thought.  I'm glad I haven't been speculating outloud about my offseason plans, because they change every 5 minutes -- it would be embarassing to reveal how fickle I am.  They still potentially include signing Scott and Banks or signing neither.  Theres an outside chance I could try to trade sergio Garcia who I just signed.  I could make a serious push after Bowden or Owen too; in fact that might be my official plan right now, but don't put too much stock in that.

Random Thoughts PART II

November 26th, 2008 by Banditos GM

-  My prediction for the most active computer teams in the offseason:  Dallas, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Montreal.  Thing is Dallas and Montreal are gaining money from letting Owens and Bowden go.  Minneapolis has real money to improve, another credit to Egghead.  New Orleans playing a big hand could further strengthen a rebuilding Sunbelt.  If Carolina improves (think of JTT's 2nd Year effect theory), Memphis is improving, and us Miami.  I think Atlanta is a hopeless organization.  They sink dollars into old worthless players year after year.

-  So what do you know about the Texas League (AA)?  If you're like me, probably not much, however, a record has been made this year.  Mario Rojas of the Wichita Controllers has set the Texas League HR record, hitting 35 HR.  Wichita is the AA affiliate of KC.  Mario Rojas is 22, plays 1B, rated 1/1 stars, but has decent ratings 34331/34333, so potentially could see EWB.  His biggest obstacle is his position due to the glut of good hitting first basemen.  Don't be surprised if you hear the name though.  In my opinion any record set now is somewhat worthy of recognition.  We've had 23 years of history, hitting 35 HR in AA is a noticeable accomplishment.  Maybe a Paul Sims successor?

-  So where are other record holders?  Well if you look the Eastern League, where we all have AA affiliates, the record holder is Jose Rodriguez who hit 38 in 1981 but in 81 Games!  Now we've all heard of Rodriguez by now, hell I signed the guy.  My point is though, how much do minor league stats matter.  Rodriguez mashed wherever he went in the mL's but has had no real success in EWB.  Let's take a look at the New York-Penn League.  The leader there with 29 HR, none other than THE Angel Rosa.  Ok, let's try the Southern League (AA), in 1974 Jeff Brown went on a tear and hit 37 HR for Mississippi.  Brown made the EWB by 1975 but never amounted to more than a really shitty EWB player who played pretty much full time.  Nobody can say he didn't have an opportunity.

-  A lot of Minor league records have to do with sticking around for a while, whether it be single season or career.  If you are a mL career leader, chances are you were never good enough to progress.  If you were a single season record holder, same thing for that year.  Most prospects hit multiple levels on their way up.

-  The biggest selling retro jersey is the 1983 Chris Henry Washington D.C. Diplomats jersey.  Gotta say not a bad jersey, it was also the year he won the Triple Crown.

- maybe more later

Random Thoughts Part I

November 26th, 2008 by Banditos GM

So Thanksgiving weekend is starting, I have no work today or tomorrow and all of tonight to relax.  So here are just a bunch of random musings about the league while I sip a beer and peruse through EWB.

- Vic MacWhirter won 16 games for me in Little Rock.  He is rated 234/224, .5/.5 so he's playing a little above his potential but his rating are still in that lower tier starter area.  That got me thinking that he might have a shot with another team, as many AAA players might, so I shopped him.  Wasn't anyone offered of interest, mainly players of his calibre but younger.  I thought though:  Why not trade some of these borderline AAA/EWB players to get younger, hell most of them have about a 10% chance with my organization but could help others.  On the flipside, I might be trading downward in terms of ability/potential but I'd be trading for younger players.  Any younger player might catch on.

- Player progression is a funny, funny thing.  Take for example Seth Williams of Little Rock.  He was a 1989 5th Rd pick, SP, when I took over in 1990 I believe he was a 4.5 to 5 star potential with 343 potential.  In 1989 he won the Championship with Greeneville and won the New York-Penn League Outstanding Pitcher of the Year.  At some point his potential dropped, he lost his stars going down to a .5/.5, after that I pretty much gave up on him.  Even at the beginning of this year, he was a filler arm for Little Rock AAA.  However, now he's reached his 333/333, pitched well in AAA, and gone up to 1.5/1.5 star.  So 333 and 1.5 star isn't remarkable but it is probably 5th Starter or Long Relief material.  My point of William's story is that even if a prospect busts, he may still comeback somewhat.

-  In AA Eastern League Playoffs, Trenton got knocked out in the 1st round 3-1 by Akron Monitors.  Trenton's success this year is somewhat of a mystery, most Eastern League followers will tell you it was their starting pitching.  At first look it doesn't look too great but Leonard Jones really carried a lot of weight this year, he went 12-11 with a 3.63 ERA, pitching over 200 Innings.  Most scouts will tell you Jones will never see the EWB, but mose EL experts say that he has a huge heart and will do whatever asked of him.  After being an 18th RD. Pick in 1989, Jones has steadily improved year after year.  Most likely Keith Hughes will assign him to AAA Tacoma next year, where he'll be one step away from the big time.

- The 2nd setup man of Trenton is none other than former Washington CLOSER Carlos Hernandez.  Wow how they fall.  Hernandez spent time in Washington, Tacoma, and now is in Trenton (The Washington organization has a history of assigning minor leaguers below their level in order to compete in playoff games).  Hernandez has done well in AA after blowing up in EWB and AAA.  His career might be over, at least with Washington.  I expect he'll be cut at the end of the season.

-  Sticking in the EL, Connecticut has won their 1st rd. matchup against the Bowie Bullfighers 3-1 and are now facing Akron for the Championship.

- Do you remember Juan Martinez and Randall Garner?  They're both former Wolverines now in the Austin Marshalls' bullpen.  Juan Martinez started for Omaha in 1990, split time between Omaha and Lincoln in '91, then was traded as a piece in the Tom Jordan/Shane Adams to Omaha deal.  Martinez has done well since Austin moved him to their spot starter/middle relief.  This year he's appeared in 57 games, started 5 and carried a 2.49 ERA.  Of course we all remember Randall Garner, who epitomized the rushed prospect, the arm that wasn't yet ready and the confidence that was shattered.  Well, at age 22 Garner is trying to turn it around.  He made 11 starts for Austin but has mostly been used in relief, carrying a 4.30 ERA.  When interviewed, both stated without a doubt the World Series matchup they looked forward to was against Omaha.  Both were traded away on somewhat cold relations.

-  Speaking of former Wolverines on Austin that were traded for Tom Jordan/Shane Adams, let's take a look at Rafael Cortes.  The funny thing about Cortes is that he was probably the centerpiece of the trade for Austin, came in and has started since mid '91 BUT he's really pretty fuckin mediocre.  I would think that if I'm the Austin GM and I have this 29 yr old Catcher as my starter and batting 9th, I look to upgrade.

-  Carrying on the same subject, Anastasio Diaz.   Looking back on Diaz, I remember he led off for Omaha and played CF.  I also remembered that at that time he was young and a mid level prospect.  But looking at his 1990 stats I realize he was kinda shitty.  I kinda thought that at the time.  Check this out, in 1990 he struck out 141 times (pretty high), he walked 6 times (pretty fuckin low, actually incredibly low).  Thing is he led off for Omaha in about 150 games.  Mike may have been feeling his way around in the first year, but it didn't take him long to figure out to start shipping this kind of trash away.  Diaz went immediately from leading off for Omaha to going to Austin's AA.....I bet you don't see that very often.

-  What's the story with El Paso's closer?  What the fuck, the guy's 43 years old, we're talking Forest Thomas era!  Ron "Tugboat" Taylor was drafted by Portland in the INAUGURAL DRAFT in 1970, no not even the 1st Amateur draft.  He was traded 3 times in a month's span from 12/1970-1/1971, where he finally ended up in El Paso.  From that point on, 1/15/1971, he's been in the Iron Horse organization.  That's tough to say, I would wager he probably has the most time spent in any organization.  He made one All Star game in 1980, other than that no accolades.  Taylor's rookie season was 1973, in 1974 he took over the closer role which he kept until 1980.  Taylor was always an ok closer but nothing exceptional, in fact a couple of years he may have been among the worse closers.  Taylor went to MR before taking over the closer role in 1986, winning a World Series through 1988.  Mostly doing MR until 1993 at age 43 he was asked to close again!  Taylor was never big on asking for outrageous contracts and El Paso always like to threaten their prospective closers with Tugboat around.  When 1992's closer Marvin Thornton was deemed unworthy in 1993 Taylor once again took over the spot.  1993 might be his best year so far, going 4-3, 19 saves but a 1.69 ERA in 74.2 IP.  I would think that someday Tugboat's #9 will be hanging along the rafters of Iron Horse Stadium.

Re: Infield Hits

November 26th, 2008 by Admirals GM

I can see the Griffey comparison, but I think Carranza is much better.  Right now, he's got the 2nd highest career average in EWB history at .334.  His worst average in any year was .312; his second worst was .326.  He has reached 200 hits 4 separate times.  And his 1417 hits at age 30 put him on track to get 3000 in his career.  Obviously, Carranza's durability going into his 30s remains to be seen, but if he can keep things up, he could be an uncontroversial hall of famer.

 

I can sort of see the Jack Clark comparison.  I would add that I think of Jack Clark as something of a mercenary, and I don't associate that with Bryant.  But still.

Infield Hits

November 26th, 2008 by Banditos GM

I always take notice of Infield hits when we're watching games and it seems like Luis Carranza gets a lot of them.  Somehow I stumbled across the fact the Ken Griffey Sr. had 37 IF hits in 1976.  Looking closer, him and Carranza seem similar with the exception of perhaps speed.  Griffey's 1977 year looks like a typical Carranza year, plus it just seems to fit with the type of players they are and their kind of status in the league, really good but never contending for best player in the league.

Also, Justin when you asked me about Ken Bryant comparisons, what do you think about Jack Clark?

Re: Confused

November 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

It's funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing in my mind as I wrote it.  But here's what I meant, Cincinnati seems to have developed those players from within, whereas, Omaha made much more trades bringing in parts for 3 years.  As far as rewarding Minneapolis' trades over Omaha's, to me it appears that Minneapolis seemed to have brought much of it together recently under Egger and MikeG put it together over a couple of years. I don't think GM's should be solely judged on the trades they make.  Once again one method isn't necessarily more admirable, this vote and the Manager vote is just more on feel than necessarily having a strict methodical guideline.

Basically I have no problem with your criticism, my vote is what it is.  I believe I can justify it, but I also can see your points.  I think that just in real life there's a certain amount of subjectivity, in this case I just felt like the award goes to Egghead. By the way, you voted for him too!?  What the fuck?

Confused

November 24th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

I am confused/curious as to why you (Rob) voted for Cincinnati's Alexander in which you wrote :

 

" Alexander deserves recognition because this team's success is a reflection of the organization's scouting and player development as a whole and with Alexander the buck stops there.  So he should also get the credit when they win.  Cincinnati has been a team coming, this year looks like it could finally be theirs."

 

and when it came to me you did not reward my building of a franchise overtime but yet gave it to Eggfuck because of "crafty" moves this year.

 

I really didn't want the award that is why I voted for Fuckhead, but I am just curious to your voting standards.

Re: The advantage of playing a computer in the first round

November 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

We still haven't simmed through the off day we are currently on (29th) to get to day 1 of playoffs (30th).  So that will make a difference, perhaps resting Ferguson enough to start.  Maybe you should send someone to the Mutiny's hotel to pull the fire alarm at 3 AM.  I'm sure Matt would appreciate the humour in it.

The advantage of playing a computer in the first round

November 24th, 2008 by Admirals GM

Presently, Nate Harris is totally exhausted.  Steven Ferguson is slightly tired.  And 3rd starter Kevin Goff is tired.  Does that mean that none of the 3 will pitch game 1?

 

If you play a human on the other hand (as both of you are doing), your opponent is able to set up their rotation.

Re: Garrett v Bicknell

November 24th, 2008 by Admirals GM

I will add that it now makes the computer vote really interesting.  If the computer votes for Garrett, he wins.  If it votes for Bicknell 1st and Garrett 2nd, we will have our first ever tie in voting for any award.  And, if it vote for Bicknell 1st and Garrett 3rd or below, Bicknell will win.  This last scenario isn't completely inconceivable: the computer is really into VORP, and Bicknell was 1st in VORP while Garrett was 3rd (Sloan was 2nd).

Garrett v Bicknell

November 24th, 2008 by Wolverines GM

The reasoning behind the Bicknell vote is this, Firstoff it's hard to argue against your own player but I believe that Bicknell would have matched or exceeded Garrett's numbers had he played a whole season. Now I know it is a shoulda coulda deal but look at their stats. Also if he plays a full season Justin may have the best record in baseball.

 

Artie Bicknell

 

Earl Weaver Baseball League 1993 Batting Stats

Batting G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS TAVG ISO VORP Overall 134 517 174 24 9 40 118 112 62 78 .337 .409 .650 1.059 1.112 .313 81.8 Batting GS PA HP IW CI GDP SH SF TB EBH SB CS SB% RC RC/27     Overall 132 589 5 8 0 20 0 5 336 73 7 3 70.0 131.9 9.60

 

Jimmy Garrett

 

Earl Weaver Baseball League 1993 Batting Stats

Batting G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS TAVG ISO VORP Overall 156 648 217 24 3 48 155 125 51 67 .335 .377 .603 .981 .993 .269 68.6 Batting GS PA HP IW CI GDP SH SF TB EBH SB CS SB% RC RC/27     Overall 156 711 0 2 1 16 0 11 391 75 12 5 70.6 144.4 8.42

I just believe with all the protection Garrett had around him that it helped him out a lot.

 

Again I am not campaigning against Garrett he is still an MVP, it's more of a 1a vs 1b vote.

 

Just keepin' it real.

Re: Key Playoff Injuries, and Predictions

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

By the way, this wasn't intentional, but I just realized that in every single series I picked the team with the most regular season wins to be victorious (one quasi-exception: both Cincinnati and El Paso had 90 wins).  So then, take my predition as indicative of the conventional wisdom about how the playoffs will go.  When they do the survey of 16 ESPN baseball analysts, my prediction is the result they give.

Key Playoff Injuries, and Predictions

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Miami: Coy Rollins and Miguel Townsend are gone throughout; without them, the Banditos offense is considerably thinner (although Francisco Neri might take up part of the slack).  Israel Camacho is gone through the first round or two; Jeff DeWalt and Joe Townsend are gone for the start of the series with Omaha, but should be back before the series is over.  This is something like Washington's situation in 1992.

 

Omaha: Eduardo Perez.  Not nothing, but not all that important.

 

Minneapolis: Matt Rodgers, LF, who batted .316/14/89 on the year.  Gone for the entire playoffs.  Rodgers is a real contributor, and this will hurt some.  Still, it's less lost to injury than any other AL team besides Omaha.

 

Washington: Mike Robinson, gone until the World Series.  Big injury, but Washington does at least have offensive depth.  Still, their record with Robinson vs. without Robinson this year is pretty drastic, I'm sure, if only I could figure out what it is, exactly.

 

Philadelphia: Mike Davies and Lowell McDaniel.  The Davies injury especially hurts, as the Quakers don't have a lot of offense and he's their biggest star.

 

Cincinnati: Staff Ace Blair Mitchell, and LF Jonathan Heller, who batted .346.  In my estimation, the Rebels would be the smart pick to make it through the NL if not for these injuries, especially Mitchell.

 

Austin: Nothing of consequence.  The least injury affected team in the entire playoffs.

 

El Paso: Rookie CF Carl Borton is out for the beginning of the first round, and his backup CF Gavin James is gone through probably all the first round.

 

Taking these injuries into account, here are my official playoff predictions.

 

AL FIRST ROUND

Omaha over Miami, 4 games to 2.  Omaha is too good, and Miami is too injured.

Minneapolis over Washington, 4 games to 2.  Minneapolis has been red hot when it counted, going 20-6 in September.  Their new 3rd starter, Richard Goff, looks solid, and their top 2 starters are incredible.  On the whole, I don't like how inconsistent my team has been all year, which sounds odd to day of a team that wins 95 games, but it's true.  IF we get hot, like we were in August or July, we could win thru the playoffs 4-0, 4-0, 4-0.  But, outside of those two months of the year, we were a pretty ordinary team. 

 

NL FIRST ROUND

Cincinnati over El Paso, 4 games to 3.  Maybe the most interesting first round matchup.

Austin over Philadelphia, 4 games to 0.  Not even close, in my mind.

 

ALCS: Omaha over Minneapolis, 4 games to 3.  Would be a phenomenal series, with the Matt/Mike rivalry, and Romano/Jackson vs. Harris/Ferguson.  Omaha's offense gives them the edge.

 

NLCS: Austin over Cincinnati: 4 games to 2.  Again, if Blair Mitchell could play, I might like the Rebels.  But without him, I look for the Marshalls to return to the World Series.

 

World Series

Omaha over Austin, 4 games to 2.  Actually, not as good a matchup as Omaha vs. Minneapolis, in my mind.  Seems to me like it's the Wolverines' year.  I don't know how you pick against a team that batted over .300.

Checking Johnny Orker's Predictions

November 23rd, 2008 by Banditos GM

Sunbelt
1) Miami
2) Carolina
3) Atlanta
4) New Orleans
5) Memphis

Pretty good but overrating Carolina and underrating Memphis.  Not bad considering most publications did not have Miami to win, but some chalk this prediction to Orker's homerism.

Plains
1) Omaha
2) KC
3) Denver
4) Chicago
5) Minneapolis

Severely underrated Minneapolis but other than that straight down, still big points deducted for Mutiny prediction.

Mountain West
1) Washington
2) Las Vegas
3) Portland
4) Los Angeles

Orker did better than the algorithm by predicting LA last, not an opinion shared by many and by commenting that Washington should run away.

Colonial
1) New York
2) Washington DC
3) Philadelphia
4) Boston
5) Montreal

Philadelphia obviously did much better, got the bottom two right though.

Ohio Valley
1) Cincinnati
2) St Louis
3) Pittsburgh
4) Indianapolis
5) Detroit
6) Cleveland

Where the algorithm did the worst, Orker did the best.  Ohio Valley division was good for Orker by predicting pretty much straight down except for Cleveland.

Texas
1) Austin
2) Dallas
3) Houston
4) El Paso
5) San Antonio

Points for getting Austin right, but also big points for commenting that El Paso could sneak (though wrong in saying they look weaker than the others)  in and that the division might be close in the middle.  Original Comment :
The Texas Division looks to be the most competitive and interesting.  Austin, Dallas, and Houston all look like they may be able to take it.  Plus El Paso could sneak in and be competitive too but they look a shade weaker.  1993 could shape to be quite an interesting year.  In contrast, the Mountain West looks to be the most boring, as Washington should dominate it as they have for 22 years

Checking on the algorithm

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here were the 1993 predictions...

 

AL SUNBELT
1. Carolina
2. Miami
3. Atlanta
4. New Orleans
5. Memphis
 

Obviously, it way overrated Carolina.  But aside from that, everything else was more-or-less on track.  Will be interesting to see how Carolina does in 1994.

 

AL PLAINS
1. Omaha
2. Kansas City*
3. Denver
4. Minneapolis
5. Chicago
(* Wild Card)
 

Got Minneapolis wrong, but still did think they would be in the Wild Card race.

AL MOUNTAIN WEST
1. Washington
2. Los Angeles
3. Las Vegas
4. Portland
 

Didn't see Portland coming.  Again, the algorithm does the worst job on predicting young teams without track records.

NL COLONIAL
1. New York
2. Philadelphia*
3. Washington D.C.
4. Boston
5. Montreal
(* Wild Card)
 

Got everything right but the order between New York and Philadelphia.  Even then, it did correctly predict that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, which I wouldn't have otherwise thought.

NL OHIO VALLEY
1. Detroit -- TIE--
1. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland
5. St. Louis
6. Indianapolis
 

This has to be the algorithm's worst job by far.  St. Louis 5th?  This is an especially odd prediction, given that the Savages were the defending division winners and didn't really lose anyone (except Joe Murphy).  A more conventional pick would have been better here.  Also, Detroit 1st?  The Cruisers ended up last and lost over 100 games.  The one saving grace here is that the algorithm did see Cincinnati tying for the division lead, and it wasn't otherwise obvious that they were posed for a breakthrough year.

NL TEXAS
1. Houston
2. Austin
3. El Paso
4. Dallas
5. San Antonio
 

In the algorithm's defense, Houston did suffer some pretty devastating injuries this year.  Give it a mulligan on the Houston pick, and the order in the Texas Division is otherwise right.

All-in-all, not an especially great year for the algorithm, but not horrible either.  We can already say that it's World Series pick is wrong -- New York over Washington.

1993 Official Miami Banditos NL Awards Vote

November 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

NL MVP
1) Keith Whitfield, ELP
2) Shannon Townsend, NY
3) Joe Warren, AUS

Notes:  We just voted for who we thought had the best years overall, with the exception of perhaps not including Campbell.  We may get flack for including Townsend but statistically he's one of the best players in baseball, let alone the NL.  So what if he was surrounded by a bunch of losers, he singlehandedly carried the NY offense.  Joe Warren, we felt, is good but is more of a sentimental pick and although we wish him best, not at the expense of other player's recognition.

NL Bob Gibson Award
1) Tom Campbell, PIT
2) Victorio Aguirre, STL
3) Hee-seop Pak, CIN

Notes:  Campbell had an amazing year and at age 36.  The fact that he didn't allow a HR all year is mind boggling.  1993 in general has been quite the year, this will be the year that the EWB purists say everything changed.  Aguirre was an easy 2nd to me, he dominated most pitching categories. He's out with a herniated disc for the next 6-7 months and just laying in bed, that makes us more sympathetic to him as well.

NL Angel Rosa Award
1)  Justin Johnston, BOS
2)  Victorio Aguirre, STL
3)  Denny Turner, STL

Notes:  Johnston, no other choice, enough said.  We are flabbergasted that Aguirre was left off the Angel Rosa Ballot, we definitely believe he is a worthy candidate and gave him our second 2nd place vote.  Denny Turner edges out Albert Perez for 3rd place by virtue of having a better team.

NL Fireman Award
1)  Gary Olson, NY
2)  Reynaldo Salinas, AUS
3)  Cesar Mejia, DC

Notes:  This was a really, really weak class regardless of category.  Olson appeared to be the best, only trailing in saves.  Really I don't have much to comment on this vote.

NL Manager of the Year
1)  Ricardo Pacheco, AUS
2)  Armando Ortiz, PHI
3)  Salvador Villalobos, CIN

Notes:  A competitive category with any of the candidates able to make a compelling case.  We chose Pacheco because win it comes down to it, he wins.  A World Series last year, second straight Texas Division Pennant, another trip to the playoffs.  What more can you ask for?  Ortiz and Villalobos took teams to a new height and made the playoffs.

NL Executive of the Year
1)  Dan Alexander, CIN
2)  Travis Garner, AUS
3)  Dave Baker, ELP

Notes:  Alexander deserves recognition because this team's success is a reflection of the organization's scouting and player development as a whole and with Alexander the buck stops there.  So he should also get the credit when they win.  Cincinnati has been a team coming, this year looks like it could finally be theirs.  Garner did everything right to keep his team lean and hungry, ready to compete for another World Series.  When most will sit tight with a Championship team, Garner made bold moves at the risk of his job.  Pretty admirable.  Dave Baker's many big moves are finally coming into fruition and look successful.  We're not sold on Dennis, at least not this year.

Washington 1993 NL Awards Ballot

November 24th, 2008 by Admirals GM

My NL Ballot

 

MVP

 

1. Joe Warren

2. Keith Whitfield

3. Justin Johnston

 

Analysis: I was really pretty torn about hot to vote here.  What ultimately persuaded me was this.  Austin had one bad month all year long: August, when they went 9-19.  Not coincidentally, it was primarily in August that Warren missed his time (2 weeks) to injury.  And in fact, during the first 2 weeks of August when Warren was injured, Austin went 2-13.  I already kind of wanted to vote for Warren anyway, but this pushed me over the top.  I could also very easily see votes for Whitfield or Johnston though.  Incidentally, even though Mike voted for Warren too, the award is still very much up for grabs, especially given that a computer vote for Warren is extremeley unlikely

 

 

Gibson

 

1. Tom Campbell

2. Hee-seop Pak

3. Luis Altagracia

 

 

Fireman of the Year.

 

1. Reynaldo Salinas

2. Gary Olson

3. Pablo Mejia

 

 

Manager of the Year

 

1. Armando Ortiz

2. Ricardo Pacheco

3. Cliff Sparks

 

Executive of the year

 

1. Travis Garner

2. Dave Baker

3. Dan Alexander

Omaha 1993 NL Awards Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Wolverines GM

NL MVP

 

1) Warren

2) Whitfield

3) Johnston

 

Gibson

 

1) Campbell

2) Pak

3) Aguire

 

Fireman

 

1) Salinas

2) Olson

3) Mejia

 

Manager

 

1) Ortiz

2) Cabral

3) Villalobos

 

Executive

 

1) Dennis

2) Baker

3) Garner

1993 NL Awards Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Rank your top 3 in each category

 

 

NL MVP: Really, a ton of solid candidates without any clear cut leader.

 

Jonathan Rodgers, 3B, Detroit: .350/35/106; 3rd in BA, 7th in HR.  Also: 3rd in Hits (214), 7th in Doubles (44), 7th in Runs (109), 1st in XBH (83), 6th in OBP (.417), 1st in SLUG (.607), 2nd in OPS (1.024), 2nd in VORP (89.2).  Detroit finished 6th in their division, and lost over 100 games this year.  Comment: Can he Andrew Dawson himself to some MVP votes?

 

Denny Turner, 1B, St. Louis: .302/41/124; 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBIs.  Also: 5th in SLUG (.567), 10th in OPS (.927).  St. Louis finished 2nd in their division, just missing the division title and the Wild Card.  Comment: The Savages' main offensive force; Turner is just a rookie.

 

Keith Whitfield, LF, El Paso: .369/28/95; 1st in BA (in the NL and all of EWB).  Also: 8th in Hits (193), 3rd in Runs (113), 1st in OBP (.463), 6th in SLUG (.563), 1st in OPS (1.027), 1st in VORP (97.6).  El Paso finished 2nd in their division, but won the Wild Card.  Comments: this is Whitfield's 2nd batting crown; won the AL MVP in 1991 and I'm not sure if we've ever had win MVPs in each league.  It is established that he's an asshole.

Mike Davies, SS, Philadelphia: .287/22/68/42; 4th in SB.  Also: 3rd in BB (101).  Philadelphia won their division.  Comment: the biggest offensive force on the Quakers' division winning team, Davies was limited to just 109 Games thanks to injury.
 
Don Kelly, RF, El Paso: .325/32/108; 9th in HR.  Also: 10th in Runs (108), 3rd in BB (101), 3rd in OBP (.428), 7th in SLUG (.557), 4th in OPS (.985), 3rd in VORP (77.6).  El Paso finished 2nd in their division, good enough to win the Wild Card.  Comment: This is the first time in his professional career Kelly lead the NL in VORP despite playing a full season, a remarkable streak that goes back to 1985.
 
Shannon Townsend, 1B, New York: .337/41/130; 7th in BA, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI.  Also: 5th in Hits (207), 2nd in Runs (117), 3rd in XBH (77), 2nd in SLUG (.598), 3rd in OPS (.992), and 4th in VORP (69.2).  New York finishe 2nd in their division, just missing the playoffs.  Comment; New York faded badly in the last week, but you can't blame Townsend who played well.
 
Joe Warren, RF, Austin: .312/44/113; 1st in HR (tie), 8th in RBI.  Also: 4th in SLUG (.574).  Austin won their division, finished with the best record in the NL.  Comment: Might be something of a sentimental favorite, given that he's never won the award and he led the Marhsalls to the World Championship last year.  Put up his numbers in just 142 games, due to injury.

Chad Church, RF/CF, Cincinnati: .283/30/116/16; 6th in RBIs.  Also: 6th in XBH (73).  Cincinnati won their division.  Comment: perhaps the biggest offensive force on the division winning Rebels squad.
 
Dan Dawson, C, Cincinnati: .338/19/94; 6th in BA.  Also: 1st in Hit by Pitch (16), 4th in OBP (.421), 8th in OPS (.948), 7th in VORP (63.0).  Cincinnati won their division.  Comment: or perhaps instead it was Dawson rather than Church who was the Rebel's greatest offensive force.

 

Justin Johnston, 1B, Boston: .323/44/145; 1st in HR (tie), 1st in RBI.  Also: 4th in Hits (209), 4th in Ks (133), 3rd in SLUG (.583), 7th in OPS (.950), 5th in VORP (67.3).  Boston finished 4th in their division, but at 83-79, they were competitive most of the year.  Comment: trying to singlehandedly make up for the loss of Valentin, Lewis, and Tablyn this past offseason; Johnston is just a rookie.

 

Albert Perez, RF, Montreal: .289/38/117; 5th in HR, 5th in RBIs.  Also: 9th in SLUG (.535), 3rd in K's (134).  Montreal finished last in their division.  Comment: like Johnston and Turner, just a rookie.

 

Marv Cartwright, 1B, Indianapolis: .325/31/116; 10th in BA, 6th in RBIs.  Also: 1st in Hits (222), 7th in Ks (123).  Indianapolis finished 5th in their division.  Comment: a free agent to be with high Justin-metric scores but relatively low Saber-metric scores; that could make him a bargain.

 

Tom Campbell, SP, Pittsburgh: 17-4, 2.19 ERA, 82.8 VORP; 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 1st in VORP.  Also: 1st in Win% (.810), 1st in IP (234), 5th in Ks (178), 3rd in WHIP (1.06), 1st in Home Runs allowed (DID NOT GIVE UP A SINGLE HR ALL YEAR, in 234 IP; that's unbelievable), 1st in QS (29), 1st in QS% (.853).  Pittsburhg finished 4th in their division at 78-84.  Comment: 3rd time he's led the league in ERA.  This year might have been a huge boost to his Hall of Fame credentials: despite having a 2.75 lifetime ERA, his career wins are fairly low due to playing for the lowly Crusaders throughout his career.


NL BOB GIBSON AWARD
 
Tom Campbell, SP, Pittsburgh: 17-4, 2.19 ERA, 82.8 VORP; 1st in Wins, 1st in ERA, 1st in VORP.  Also: 1st in Win% (.810), 1st in IP (234), 5th in Ks (178), 3rd in WHIP (1.06), 1st in Home Runs allowed (DID NOT GIVE UP A SINGLE HR ALL YEAR, in 234 IP; that's unbelievable), 1st in QS (29), 1st in QS% (.853).  Pittsburhg finished 4th in their division at 78-84.  Comment: 3rd time he's led the league in ERA.  This year might have been a huge boost to his Hall of Fame credentials: despite having a 2.75 lifetime ERA, his career wins are fairly low due to playing for the lowly Crusaders throughout his career.
 
Luis Altagracia, SP, St. Louis: 15-9, 2.94 ERA, 66.1 VORP; 4th in Wins, 3rd in ERA, 2nd in VORP.  Also: 8th in Win% (.625), 3rd in IP (220.2), 2nd in WHIP (1.02), 2nd in K/BB (4.55), 4th in QS (22), 3rd in QS% (.667), 4th in CG (2), 1st in ShO (1).  St. Louis finished 2nd in their division, just missing the playoffs.  Comment: last year's winner.
 
Victorio Aguire, SP, St. Louis: 14-4, 2.77 ERA, 53.2 VORP; 7th in Wins, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in VORP.  Also: 2nd in Win% (.778), 3rd in K's (194), 1st in WHIP (1.01), 1st in K/BB (5.11), 1st in K/9 (10.33), 3rd in QS% (.667).  St. Louis finished 2nd in their divisioin, just missing the playoffs.  Comments: A 22-year-old rookie.  He might have given Tom Campbell a run for his money on the award, but an injury knocked him out for the year on 8/20.  St. Louis's pitching staff is out of this world if you include Dan Morgan as well.
 
Norman Banks, SP, New York: 16-7, 3.65 ERA, 35.6 VORP; 3rd in Wins.  Also: 4th in Win % (.696), 7th in QS (21), 8th in QS% (.636).  New York finished 2nd in their division, just missing the playoffs.  Comment: Newly acquired as a free agent from Austin, Banks pitched well for the 5 Points, but faded badly down the stretch, just as the entire team did.
 
Miguel Gonzalez, SP, Cincinnati: 15-10, 3.34 ERA, 38.4 VORP; 4th in Wins, 10th in ERA.  Also: 10th in Win% (.600), 1st in BB (126), 10th in K/9 (7.17).  Cincinnati won their division.  Comment: Gonzalez is the pitcher who just got edged out last year by teammate (and fellow SP) Scott Laws for the Angel Rosa Award.
 

Hee-seop Pak, SP, Cincinnati: 15-1, 2.71, 43.4 VORP; 4th in Wins, his 2.71 ERA would rank 2nd in the league, but he doesn't have enough IP to qualify (9 IP short -- has 153, needs 162).  Also: he had a 1.26 WHIP, 21 QS (ranks 7th, despite making just 24 starts), and 87.5 QS%, (would rank 1st).  Cincinnati finished 1st in their division.  Comment: an interesting case; I almost overlooked him in compiling my list.  Pak is a 32-year-old journeyman who hadn't had a VORP above 1.0 since 1990.  Pak wasn't injured on the year, and didn't spend time in the bullpen, and yet he was limited by managerial decisions to just 24 starts (mostly, this limitation occurred early in the year).  Was absolutely lights-out during the stretch run, having an ERA around 1.50 in August and around 1.00 in September.  Should get at least some votes.

 

*NOTE: In my judgment, no NL relief pitcher is worthy of serious Gibson consideration this year.

 

NL FIREMAN AWARD
 
Ruben Flores, RP, Indianapolis: 35 Saves (81.4 Save %), 3.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.16 K/9; ranked 5th in Saves.  Indianapolis finished 5th in their division.  Comment: first full time season as a closer for the 34-year-old Flores, who has been a middle reliever prior to this.

Reynaldo Salinas, RP, Austin: 46 Saves (88.5%), 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.62 K/9; ranked 1st in Saves.  Austin won their division and had the best record in the NL.  Comment: An interesting career trajecotry.  Salinas was Austin's closer back in his rookie year of 1986, when he saved 39 games.  Ever since then, though, he's been relegated to middle relief.  Now, with the departure of Ned Gordon, Salinas got another chance to close at age 31, and ended up leading the league in saves.
 
Greg Novak, RP, Dallas: 40 Saves (85.1%), 4.38 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4.96 K/9; ranked 2nd (tied) in Saves.  Dallas finished 3rd in their division.  Comment: the rare closer with 1 Stuff (4 Control, 4 Movement).  Given the 4.38 ERA, maybe it's understandable why it's so rare.
 
Gary Olson, RP, New York: 39 Saves (95.1%), 2.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.37 K/9; ranked 4th in Saves.  New York finished 2nd in their division, just missing the playoffs.  Comment: the runner up for the award last year, I'm pretty sure he's the only candidate on the list both in 1992 and 1993.
 
Cesar Mejia, RP, Washington D. C.: 40 Saves (93%), 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.48 K/9; ranked 2nd (tied) in Saves.  Washington D.C. finished 3rd in their division, and were playoff contenders throughout the year.  Comment: 2nd straight successful year as a closer.
 

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
 
Cliff Sparks, Washington D.C.: The 63-year-old Sparks has managed the Diplomats since 1990, and led the team to a remarkable 20 game improvement this year, up from 64-98 in 1992 to 84-78 in 1993.  Though the Diplomats finished 3rd, they were competitive throughout the year.  This is something of an Arte-How-candidacy: you look at the Diplomats' roster, and you don't really see much talent at all.  How this team was competitive is beyond me.  For instance, their cleanup hitter is catcher Caroll Holden, a fill-in for the injured Ken Hamilton who batted .233/14/75 on the year (Hamilton hit only .201).  Aside from Mejia, their bullpen is filled with guys with 5 ERAs.  The 20 game improvement was the biggest in all of baseball.
 
Armando Ortiz, Philadelphia: It's hard to see how Ortiz got the Philadelphia job in the first place.  He had success in the minors back with Sacramento of the PCL in the early 1970s, and also won a minor league championship with Spokane in the NWL in 1983, but aside from this if you look at his minor league record you see LOTS and LOTS of last place finishes: he seems to have finished last just about every year from 1973-1978 and then again from 1984-1990, for a variety of teams.  At any rate, somehow or other Ortiz was made the interim manager of Chicago last year when they fired Tom Kelly; he was then let go after the season, only to be scooped up by Philly G.M. John Dennis.  Under Ortiz, the Quakers saw a 16 game improvement, from 74-88 in 1992 to 90-72 in 1993, good enough to win Philadelphia their first division title since 1978.  And this is despite the team trading away Henry Winman this past offseason; despite the complete demise of former prospect Anthony Miller's skills; and despite major injuries to OF Lowell McDaniel and team star Mike Davies at SS.  When things counted most, Philadelphia especially turned things up a notch: they went 19-9 in August and 16-10 in September to slip past New York.
 
Salvador Villalobos, Cincinnati: Villalobos, who's been with the Rebels since 1989 (when they also made the playoffs), oversaw a 7 game improvement this year, going 83-79 in 1992 and now 90-72 in 1993.  He has developed a lineup with perhaps the best capacity for batting average outside of Omaha -- 3 starters hit above .320, and the team as a whole batted .282 despite being without a DH.  He oversaw the development of a nice young group of starting pitchers, led by Miguel Gonzalez, Nolan Nelson, and Scott Laws.  He didn't panic when ace Blair Mitchell went down to injury in the middle of the pennant race in September, or when OF Jonathan Heller (who was batting .346) went down in early July.  And, perhaps most remarkably of all, he got the year of a lifetime out of journeyman starter/reliever Hee-seop Pak. 
 
Ricardo Pacheco, Austin: A strong candidate for the award last year who came up short, Pacheco is probably even a more compelling candidate this year.  For one thing, Austin had the best record in the NL in 1993.  For another thing, they did this despite some major losses in the offseason: 1B Cliff Webb, SP Norman Banks, and Closer Ned Gordon.  Pacheco also oversaw the development of young stars Jim Spencer, David Waters, and ace Bill Fitzpatrick.  Also, there's a history of giving the manager of the year award to someone the year AFTER they win the World Series.  Austin had the best record in the NL this year.
 

Marcos Cabral, El Paso: Cabral had a lot of success in the minors back in the 1970s and early 1980s -- 3 Minor League Championships and 6 playoff appearances -- but none really to speak of since 1982.  Nevertheless, El Paso handed the reigns to Cabral as a 61 year old EWB rookie this year, and Cabral responded by leading the Iron Horses to the playoffs via the Wild Card.  El Paso saw a 10 game improvement, from 80-82 in 1992 to 90-72 in 1993.  There's no doubt that El Paso has talen, but Cabral was able to get the team to play to their talent level in a way that their former manager was not.  He got MVP-caliber years out of Keith Whitfield and Don Kelly, got an All Star appearance out of Jose Garza, and perhaps most important of all, he got rookie CF Carl Borton to set the table for the big bats behind.  Also, he used 43-year-old Ron "Tugboat" Taylor as a closer, and got surprisingly good results: 19 Saves and an ERA under 2.00.
 

NL EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR
 
John Dennis, Philadelphia: As noted above, the hiring of manager Armando Ortiz was a highly questionable move, and it was greeted with extreme skepticism in Philadelphia.  Hard to argue with the results though.  Dennis had the guts to make a huge, huge trade this offseason: giving up face of the franchise and one of the most talented players in the game in OF Henry Winman in exchange for 26-year-old SP Julian Acuna, who went 14-8 with a 3.97 ERA this year.  (I also note that scouts say that Winman's talent has dropped a significant amount, even if he still is a solid player, and this has to be taken into account when considering the trade.)  Letting Winman go freed up money to sign free agent 1B Cliff Webb.  Now, by most accounts, Webb wasn't an especially sought after free agent -- this is evidenced by the fact that he wasn't signed until February.  Still, Dennis decided to give the 30-year-old Webb a massive 7 year, $40M contract.  Whether this was a good contract probably remains to be seen, but we can at least say that Webb had a productive first year in Philadlphia, going .292/22/87 and exhibiting the kind of leadership that goes with winning a World Championship (as Webb did in 1992 with Austin).  Dennis also deserves credit a year later for the Luis Tejada free agent signing, given that Tejada continues to be a solid ace.
 
Dan Alexander, Cincinnati: Alexander is kind of a hard case to evaluate, just because Cincinnati depends on homegrown players to a truly remarkable extent.  Look at their starting lineup and every single Rebel has spent their entire ML career with Cincinnati, with the one exception of Dan Johnson, who himself has been with the team since 1988.  The same is true for 4 of the 6 Cincinnati starting pitchers who saw action on the year, with the most significant exception being Blair Mitchell, who was acquired in a trade from Denver back in 1991.  So then, in evaluating Alexander, this is what you have to take into account: he basically didn't make too many moves himself (aside from perhaps drafting these players).  Sometimes, no move at all is the best move, and that looks to be the case for the Rebels given that they're in the playoffs this year.

 
Travis Garner, Austin: Coming off a World Championship, Garner would have been excused if he had shelled out the big bucks to keep veterans like Cliff Webb, Ned Gordon, and Norman Banks on the team.  But he didn't do that.  He let each of those stars go, and yet Austin had an identical record in 1993.  By letting those stars go, Garner opened the door to playing time for youngsters with potential, and the longterm future of the Marshalls looks the better because of it.  In addition to the moves he didn't make, there are the moves Garner did make.  During the season, he traded a couple of scrub OFs to land SP Nicholas Knowles from Las Vegas.  While Knowles was 3-5 with a 6.32 ERA with the renegades, he really found himself with the Marhsalls going 12-7 with a 3.38 ERA.  Also, there's the odd case of 2B Conan Woley.  Coming off the Webb departure, Austin decided to respond by moving their present 2B Orlando Torres to 1B, and then signed Worley as a free agent to fill the gap at 2B.  Well, the 37-year-old Worley had sat out of all of 1992 as an unsigned free agent, and hadn't been a full time starter in years.  Given a chance, he performed decently this year, going .248/11/49 and putting up a VORP of 8.3.  His 484 AB were the most he had since 1987.  An unconventional signing, but one that paid off.  And again, it needs to be repeated that Austin did have the best record in the NL this year.

Dave Baker, El Paso: There is no quesiton that Baker has made El Paso very much his franchise.  His signing of manager Cabral was somewhat controversial (although not nearly as much as the signing in Philadelphia), but it's paid off.  If Baker ends up winning the award, it will be largely on the basis of the moves he made two years ago: signing Jose Garza (the reigning NL MVP), Keith Whitfield (the AL MVP), and Jon Houston (present staff ace) all as free agents.  He remained agressive during the season, with mixed results.  For one thing, he acquires SP Ben Mullen from the New York 5 points just before the trading deadline, and Mullen responded by going 4-4 with a +5 ERA.  (Mullen is slated to be El Paso's 3rd starter in the playoffs.)  He claimed veteran C Wilson Rocha off waivers away from the Los Angeles Gargoyles, and Rocha was a typical aged backup catcher in response.  He traded for 3B Javier Martinon, and Martinon responded by batting under .200; Baker liked what he saw enough to give Martinon a 3 year extension.  This much has to be said about Baker: unlike say Dan Alexander of Cincinnati, Baker is a real mover-and-shaker.  When the moves payoff, as they did this year given the playoff appearance, Baker earns a lot of the credit.

1993 Washington Angel Rosa Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

My votes match Mike's

 

AL

1. Ed Jackson

2. Bartolo Barrios

3. Shawn Carr

 

NL

1. Justin Johnston

2. Denny Turner

3. Albert Perez

1993 Omaha Angel Rosa Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Wolverines GM

AL ROSA

 

1)Jackson

2)Barrios

3)Carr

 

NL ROSA

1) Johnston

2) Turner

3) Perez

 

1993 Angel Rosa Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

There were a lot of good rookies this year (especially in the NL), so the ballots are a little longer than usual.  As always, rank your top 3.

 

AL ANGEL ROSA

 

David Benitez, 1B, Memphis: .327/15/53.  Memphis finished 3rd in their division at 71-91.  Comment: put up these numbers in just 107 Games and just 266 ABs.

 

Juan Velazquez, CF, Denver: .271/23/89.  Also: ranked 8th in triples (7).  Denver finished 4th in their division.  Comment: finally, a decent bat to hit behind Vincent Carter.

 

Shawn Carr, MR, Omaha: 10-4 (0 Starts), 3.09 ERA, 131 IP in 73 Games, 1.21 WHIP.  Ranked 3rd in games (73) and 10th in K's (160) even though he's a reliever.  Omaha finisehd with the best record in baseball.  Comment: the 131 relief IP are pretty remarkable.

 

Jose Garcia, SS, Washington: .283/11/90.  Also: ranked 2nd in Doubles (44).  Washington won their division.  Comment: also plays great defense as a SS.

 

Jesus Mendoza, LF, Carolina: .279/21/83.  Carolina finished 4th in their division.  Comment: along side German Ortiz and Kenneth Brown, gives Carolina a great outfield.

 

Bartolo Barrios, SP, Kansas City: 17-8/3.51/50.8; 1st in W, 10th in ERA, 6th in VORP.  Also: 8th in Win% (.680), 7th in IP (223), 1st in Ks (247), 3rd in WHIP (1.11), 2nd in K/BB (4.26), 1st in K/9 (9.97).  Kansas City finished 3rd in their division.  Comment: Kansas City's ace.

 

Ed Jackson, SP, Omaha: 16-5/2.95/65.4 VORP; 3rd in W, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in VORP.  Also: 2nd in Win% (.762), 2nd in Ks (214), 2nd in WHIP (1.09), 1st in QS (24), 1st in QS% (.750), 8th in CG (2), 1st in ShO (2).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: arguably, not Omaha's ace (that honor migh go to Emilio Romano).
 

 

NL ANGEL ROSA (I note that this is perhaps the greatest rookie class ever -- in the entire NL, 3 of the top 5 in both HR and RBI were rookies; I seriously doubt that has ever happened before)

 

Ash Hays, 2B, Boston: .307/14/75.  Also: 9th in K's.  Boston finished 4th in their division, but at 83-79, they were competitive most of the year.  Comment: together with Johnston (below), Hays gives Boston a great, young, right side of the IF.

 

Tanyu Sasaki, LF, Pittsburgh: .272/26/111.  Also: 1st in the NL in triples (12), 3rd in XBH (77).  Pittsburgh finished 4th in their division.  Comment: Japanese.

 

Denny Turner, 1B, St. Louis: .302/41/124; 3rd in HR, 3rd in RBIs.  Also: 5th in SLUG (.567), 10th in OPS (.927).  St. Louis finished 2nd in their division, just missing the division title and the Wild Card.  Comment: like Johnston (below), a real MVP candidate as a rookie.

 

Carl Borton: CF, El Paso: .294/12/43/26.  El Paso finished 2nd in their division, winning the Wild Card.  Comment: provided El Paso with the table setter they lacked last year, and it seems to have made a huge difference.

 

Justin Johnston, 1B, Boston: .323/44/145; 1st in HR, 1st in RBI.  Also: 4th in Hits (209), 4th in Ks (133), 3rd in SLUG (.583), 7th in OPS (.950), 5th in VORP (67.3).  Boston finished 4th in their division, but at 83-79, they were competitive most of the year.  Comment: Johnston appears to have set the EWB rookie record for RBIs.

 

Tyrone "Skull Crusher" Taylor, LF, New York: .302/16/75/49; those 49 SBs rank 2nd in the NL.  Also: 5th in Runs (110), 10th in Hits (193).  New York finished 2nd in their division at 86-76, fading at the very end.  Comment: A former Admiral, the "skull crusher" hopes that there is no bad blood with Omaha that might cost him their vote.

 

Albert Perez, RF, Montreal: .289/38/117; 5th in HR, 5th in RBIs.  Also: 9th in SLUG (.535), 3rd in K's (134).  Montreal finished last in their division.  Comment: the first big piece of the youth movement emerging in Montreal.

 

David Waters, LF Austin: .280/25/82/37; 7th in SBs.  Austin finished 1st in their division, with the best record in the NL.  Comment: perhaps the rookie with the best overall game, he's got speed and at least some defense in addition to his hitting.

 

Juan Bravo, 1B, Houston: .296/32/113/26; 9th in HR, 8th in RBIs.  Also: 2nd in K's (142).  Houston finished 4th in their division.  Comment: finally the debut of the #1 prospect in baseball.

1993 Official Miami Banditos AL Awards Vote

November 23rd, 2008 by Banditos GM

AL MVP
1) Jimmy Garrett, OMA
2) Artie Bicknell, WAS
3) Rick Sloan, POR

Notes:  When it was all said and done, we could not vote any one above Garrett.  He was the main offensive force behind probably one of the best offenses in history, the league's winningest team, and just short of a Triple Crown.  Bicknell was our second choice and also fairly easy for us, considering his numbers in SLG and OPS.  If the rest of the league (computer) votes Bicknell MVP, will Omaha GM MikeG have cost his star player an MVP trophy with his odd vote?  That will be major talking head fodder throughout the whole offseason and perhaps lead to a deteriorated relationship between Garrett and the Omaha Front Office.  I, too, was torn between Picot and Sloan at #3 but Sloan's numbers were just too impressive for Picot and his intangible value to the Mutiny to overcome.  Also, I was surprised to see Ken Bryant made the ballot, we don't think he was even the MVP of our team.

AL Bob Gibson Award
1) Steven Ferguson, MIN
2) Ed Jackson, OMA
3) Nate Harris, MIN

Notes:  This was a fairly easy category.  Ferguson was the best pitcher, on a great team.  Jackson was also a solid number two, not too much thought.  The third was much more difficult, MacGregor and Harris were very close but we just felt that Harris had just as good numbers, maybe better and won a lot of games for the second best team.  After those 4 we think it drops off a little bit, although I will say that Romano was very solid and I feel he has that intangible going for him.  Kind of an air of dominance that numbers don't reflect.

AL Fireman of the Year Award
1) Stu MacNiter, MIN
2) Joe Murphy, KC
3) Lou "Franchise" Bennett, MIA

Notes:  Once again an easy choice, MacNiter delivered 46 saves for a dominant team.  He performed well though in all may be less talented than Murphy.  If Murphy stays in KC for an extended time we may see him and MacNiter battle it out for the award year in and year out.  Bennett did well in his first full season as the closer, although he struggled with his control it did not translate into blown saves or many runs.  Bennett was a heart attack closer but dependable.  Punk Perez had a bad stint which hurt his stats and his reputation.  Although, I still believe he is among the elite this was not his finest year.

AL Manager of the Year
1)  Dave Morgan, OMA
2)  Pepe Vargas, MIN
3)  Todd Thurman, POR

Notes:  Morgan wins hands down, this is not to say Vargas' accomplishments were not amazing.  It's just that Morgan took a team to new heights and a team that other managers with virtually identical talents failed with.  Morgan knew how to push the right buttons.  Vargas was amazing all the way down into the stretch run.  He pushed Omaha until the last day and will surely contend for this award in the future.  Todd Thurman was worthy of some recognition although his team sputtered late into the season.  To manage players like Sloan, H. Garcia into career years is impressive, and overcoming expectations always benefits one in this category.

AL Executive of the Year
1)  Matt Egghead, MIN
2)  MikeG, OMA
3)  RobM, MIA

Notes:  This was by the far the toughest vote in the AL this year.  It's like comparing Michaelangelo's years creating the Sistine Chapel against the flashy brilliance of a Jackson Pollock painting doing on the spot.  MikeG molded this team since he took over, Egghead made quick, brilliant moves right away for immediate success.  The vote really hinged on Egghead's sheer craftiness which we admired.  Overall though, it's more like a 1a and 1b then a 1 and 2 vote.  RobM gets the 3rd vote because let's face it, I'm RobM and the league is tiring of Washington accolades after 23 years.

AL Angel Rosa Award
1)  Ed Jackson, OMA
2)  Juan Velazquez, DEN
3)  Jose Garcia, WAS

Notes:  Ed Jackson was a no brainer, in some years he would have been a Bob Gibson winner.  I was surprised at the lack of Velazquez votes on the other ballot.  Miami definitely prefers every day players in the Rosa and Velazquez was a solid contributor for Denver.  His rookie year numbers were decent and he plays a tough position.  Garcia played everyday at SS for a strong Washington team and his defense needs to be considered as well.  We believe Shawn Carr and Bartolo Barrios are definitely worthy candidates but overall the contributions of Velazquez and Garcia were greater to their respective teams.

Washington 1993 AL Award Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here's my vote for MVP...

 

1. Jimmy Garrett, Omaha.  I don't know if Mike's trying to be noble or something, but I feel like Garrett is the clear winner.

2. Artie Bicknell, Washington

3. Clinton Picot, Minneapolis; 3rd was a tough pick, Picot just edged out Sloan on my ballot.

 

Gibson
1. Steven Ferguson

2. Ed Jackson

3. Joe MacGregor

 

Fireman

1. MacNiter

2. Murphy

3. Perez

 

Manager

1. Vargas, Minneapolis

2. Morgan, Omaha

3. Thurman, Portland

 

Executive

1. Mike, Omaha

2. Matt, Minneapolis

3. Rob, Miami

Omaha 1993 AL Award Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Wolverines GM

MVP

 

1) Bicknell

2) Garrett

3) Hernandez

 

Gibson

 

1) Jackson

2) Ferguson

3) MacGregor

 

Fireman

 

1) MacNiter

2) Murphy

3) Perez

 

Manager

 

1) Morgan

2) Vargas

3) McKeon

 

Executive

 

1) Matt Egghead

2) Mike G

3) Rob

1993 AL Awards Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

As always, rank your picks 1-3.

 

 

AL MVP
 
Jimmy Garrett, 3B, Omaha: .335/48/155; 3rd in BA, 1st in HR, 1st in RBI.  Also: 2nd in hits (217), 1st in Runs (125), 3rd in SLUG (.603), and 3rd in VORP (68.3).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: missed out on the triple crown by just 2 BA points; had just a .933 Fielding Percentage as a 3B.
 
Ricardo Hernandez, 1B, Omaha: .328/28/126; 6th in BA, 3rd in RBI.  Also: 1st in Hits (223).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comments: contended for a 2nd straight batting title, but came up short.
 
Artie Bicknell, DH, Washington: .337/40/118; 2nd in BA, 3rd in HR, 4th in RBI.  Also: 6th in runs (112), 2nd in OBP (.409), 1st in SLUG (.650), 1st in OPS (1,059), 1st in VORP (81.8).  Washington won the Mountain West Division.  Comments: injury limited him to just 134 Games; missed out on the batting title by a fraction of a percentage point; a DH almost the entire year.
 
Jesus Reyes, RF, Kansas City: .337/35/112; 1st in BA. 9th in HR, 10th in RBI.  Also: 7th in OBP (.393), 4th in SLUG (.602), 3rd in OPS (1,000), 3rd in VORP (63.3).  Kansas City finished 3rd in their division at 86-76.  Notes: a free agent to be.
 
Rick Sloan, 3B, Portland: .326/43/114; 7th in BA, 2nd in HR, 8th in RBI.  Also: 2nd in SLUG (.632), 2nd in OPS (1,003), 2nd in VORP (72.9)  Portland finished 2nd in their division at 85-77.  Comment: probably the most "improved" player in the entire AL.
 
Vincent Carter, C, Denver: .313/38/115; 5th in HR, 7th in RBI.  Also: 10th in OBP (.393), 5th in SLUG (.599), 4th in OPS (.993), 5th in VORP (61.3).  Denver finished 4th in their division at 83-79.  Comment: bear in mind that he's also a great defensive catcher.
 
Clinton Picot, C, Minneapolis: .316/40/114; 3rd in HR, 8th in RBI.  Also: 9th in Runs (106), 6th in SLUG (.568), 6th in OPS (.955), 6th in VORP (56.1).  Minneapolis finished 2nd in their division at 97-65, winning the Wild Card.  Comment: just about the sole offensive force on the team.
 
Ken Bryant, DH, Miami: .268/31/129; 2nd in RBI.  Also: 1st in Ks (164).  Miami finished 1st in their division.  Comment: the RBI total is pretty impressive.
 
Dale Reinert, 1B, Washington: .272/38/117; 5th in HR, 5th in RBI.  Also: 9th in SLUG (.519), 2nd in Ks (144).  Washington finished 1st in their division.  Comment: nothing comes to mind.

--NOTE: No pitcher was deemed worthy of MVP votes this year. 

 

AL BOB GIBSON AWARD
 
Steven Ferguson, SP, Minneapolis: 16-9/2.76/71.1 VORP; 3rd in W, 1st in ERA, 1st in VORP.  Also: 10th in Win % (.640), 2nd in IP (231.1), 3rd in Ks (204), 3rd in K/9 (7.94), 4th in QS (22), 8th in QS% (.647).  Minneapolis finished 2nd in their division, good for the Wild Card.  Comment: This is the 3rd time Ferguson has led the league in ERA, but his previous two times he was in the NL with Dallas.
 
Nate Harris, SP, Minneapolis: 17-9/3.19/56.4 VORP; 1st in W, 6th in ERA, 4th in VORP.  Also: 4th in WHIP (1.12), 4th in QS (22), 6th in QS% (.667), 8th in CG (2).  Minneapolis finished 2nd in their division, good for the Wild Card.  Comment: A good 1-2 punch with Ferguson.
 
Joe MacGregor, SP, Washington: Joe MacGregor: 16-5/3.11/50.1 VORP; 3rd in W, 5th in ERA, 9th in VORP.  Also: 2nd in Win % (.762), 8th in WHIP (1.23), 4th in QS (22), 4th in QS% (.683), 1st in CG (4).  Washington finished 1st in their division.  Comment: Finished 2nd in the Gibson voting last year.
 
Ed Jackson, SP, Omaha: 16-5/2.95/65.4 VORP; 3rd in W, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in VORP.  Also: 2nd in Win% (.762), 2nd in Ks (214), 2nd in WHIP (1.09), 1st in QS (24), 1st in QS% (.750), 8th in CG (2), 1st in ShO (2).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: a rookie.
 
Emilio Romano, SP, Omaha: 16-10/3.39/59.1 VORP; 3rd in W, 9th in ERA, 3rd in VORP.  Also: 4th in IP (228.1), 4th in Ks (198), 7th in WHIP (1.22), 1st in K/BB (5.21), 1st in QS (24), 1st in QS% (.750), 8th in CG (2).  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: A good 1-2 punch with Jackson.
 
Bartolo Barrios, SP, Kansas City: 17-8/3.51/50.8; 1st in W, 10th in ERA, 6th in VORP.  Also: 8th in Win% (.680), 7th in IP (223), 1st in Ks (247), 3rd in WHIP (1.11), 2nd in K/BB (4.26), 1st in K/9 (9.97).  Kansas City finished 3rd in their division.  Comment: another rookie.
 
Stu MacNiter, RP, Minneapolis: 46 Saves (95.8%), 2.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7.52 K/9; 1st in Saves.  Minneapolis finished 2nd in their division, good for the Wild Card.  Comment: perhaps the top closer in baseball this year.
 
Joe Murphy, RP, Kansas City: 42 Saves (85.7%), 1.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.07 K/9; 2nd in Saves.  Kansas City finished 3rd.  Comment: still 7 feet tall.
 
Julio Perez, RP, Omaha: 40 Saves (95.2%), 3.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.19 K/9; 3rd in Saves.  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: the Fireman of the Year in 1992, Perez struggled quite a bit at the beginning of the year, but then got on track.
 
Cris Rosario, RP, Denver: 36 Saves (92.3%), 2.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.36 K/9; 6th in Saves.  Denver finished 4th in their division.  Comment: I got nothing.
 
Lou Bennett, RP, Miami: 37 Saves (90.2%), 2.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.38 K/9; 4th in Saves.  Miami won their division.  Comment: Bennett's first full season as closer.  By the way, don't get me wrong, he's really good, but the "Francise"?  Really?

 

 
AL FIREMAN

 

Stu MacNiter, RP, Minneapolis: 46 Saves (95.8%), 2.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7.52 K/9; 1st in Saves.  Minneapolis finished 2nd in their division, good for the Wild Card.  Comment: perhaps the top closer in baseball this year.
 
Joe Murphy, RP, Kansas City: 42 Saves (85.7%), 1.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.07 K/9; 2nd in Saves.  Kansas City finished 3rd.  Comment: still 7 feet tall.
 
Julio Perez, RP, Omaha: 40 Saves (95.2%), 3.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.19 K/9; 3rd in Saves.  Omaha had the best record in baseball.  Comment: the Fireman of the Year in 1992, Perez struggled quite a bit at the beginning of the year, but then got on track.
 
Cris Rosario, RP, Denver: 36 Saves (92.3%), 2.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.36 K/9; 6th in Saves.  Denver finished 4th in their division.  Comment: I got nothing.
 
Lou Bennett, RP, Miami: 37 Saves (90.2%), 2.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.38 K/9; 4th in Saves.  Miami won their division.  Comment: Bennett's first full season as closer.  By the way, don't get me wrong, he's really good, but the "Francise"?  Really?

 

AL MANAGER
 
Bob Washington, Washington.  The reigning winner of the award, Washington gets a nomination again thanks to a 2nd straight division title.  Got an unbelievlable level of success out of his starting rotation, with Gustavo Chavez and Doug Kelly pitching well beyond their talent level.  Still, he faced nothing like the challenges he faced last year, and whereas last year the Admirals came out of nowhere to win the division, this year they were the favorites going in.
 
Todd Thurman, Portland.  His first year as an EWB manager after a remarkably successful minor league career.  He got an exceptional level of success of young players like Rick Sloan and Hector Garcia.  Portland wasn't really very highly thought of coming in to the season, and Thurman gets a lot of credit for keeping them in the division race as long as they were.
 
Dave Morgan, Omaha: Out of nowhere, Morgan had a meteoric rise up the Wolverine chain of command: from AA manager, to AAA manager, to ML manager, within less than a year.  Oversaw a team that batted .307 on the year.  That's unreal.  Whereas Joe Torre could lead Omaha only to an 82-80 record in 1992, Morgan oversaw team improvement of 16 games this year, to 98-64.
 
Pepe Vargas, Minneapolis.  His first season in the big leagues after a truly remarkable minor league career.  Oversaw the resurgance in Steven Ferguson's career, which no one saw coming.  Also got a solid performance out of Enrique Castro (.277/22/85), a 36-year-old veteran who no one thought at all highly of (he signed for the league minimum).  Minneapolis went from 80-82 in 1992 to 97-65 in 1993, a 17 game improvement which is actually slightly better than Omaha's (1 game better).

Jack McKeon, Miami.  Again, oversaw a 2nd half surge that gave Miami a big division lead and lots of momentum going into the playoffs.  And did this despite tons of injuries to key Banditos like Coy Rollins and Miguel Torres.  In addition, got Miami to the playoffs despite the collapse (and eventual trade) of George Banks.

 
AL EXECUTIVE
 
Justin T, Washington.  The winner in 1992, he again gets a nomination thanks to Washington's return to the playoffs.  The biggest move of the season was the July trade that landed the Admirals George Banks; in truth, this trade had mixed results.  Aside from that, he mostly just stayed pat over the past year.
 
Ron Morse, Portland.  First, he hired manager Todd Thurman this past offseason, a move that looks really quite solid.  For another thing, he made the gutsy, gutsy trade that sent Carl Morgan to Miami in exchange for Ray Stapylton (16 game winner) and Steven Miles (32 Saves).
 
Mike G., Omaha.  The moves that helped the Wolverines rise from laughing stocks in 1990 to the best record in baseball in 1993 are too many to document here.  However, I'll note that this past offseason he managed to move just enough salary to allow him to re-sign all the team's key components, including Ricardo Hernandez and Orlando Diaz.  The signing of Jerome MacKnight (.315) and Jason Stephenson (.334) in the outfield looks especially brilliant.
 
Matt E., Minneapolis.  Looking like one of the most cunning, sharp G.M.'s you'll ever see.  Over this past year, he signed new manager Pepe Vargas -- a guy who had had remarkable minor league success, but was never given a shot in the majors until now.  Then, he traded washed-up, backup C Tony Gracia (who's also a huge salary liability) to land Steven Ferguson, one of the top contenders for the Gibson Award.  This already has to rank as one of the most one-sided trades in EWB history.  In August, Matt plucked 20-year-old rookie starting pitcher Richard Goff off of El Paso's roster via waivers.  Why El Paso had put the 10-pt. pitcher on waivers in the first place is anyone's guess.  For Minneapolis, in the heat of a pennant race, Goff went 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA this September.  He projects to be their 3rd starter (after Ferguson and Nate Harris) in the playoffs, and he looks like an excellent, excellent 3rd starter.  Finally, he signed 36-year-old LF Enrique Castro to a league minimum free agent contract this past offseason, only to see Castro put up numbers of .277/22/85.  In short, Matt E. is a shark.  If the award is handed out on the basis of moves over the last single calendar year, Matt E. has an extraordinarily strong case, he's probably the pick.  If it's more of a long-term recognition though, then you go with Mike G.
 
Rob M., Miami.  A number of big moves this year for the Banditos, and yet they're still in contention nevertheless.  They gave up young arms in Stapylton and Miles to land CF Carl Morgan, a move that profited both Miami and Portland.  They signed free agent starter Kevin Harris to a big contract, and Harris pitched pretty well in his first team.  And then finally there was the George Banks trade, significant both for the talent involved in the trade and also for the unique historical role that Banks has played within the Bandito franchise.  And they still reached the playoffs