Earl Weaver Baseball League

Checking Johnny Orker's Predictions

November 23rd, 2008 by Banditos GM

Sunbelt
1) Miami
2) Carolina
3) Atlanta
4) New Orleans
5) Memphis

Pretty good but overrating Carolina and underrating Memphis.  Not bad considering most publications did not have Miami to win, but some chalk this prediction to Orker's homerism.

Plains
1) Omaha
2) KC
3) Denver
4) Chicago
5) Minneapolis

Severely underrated Minneapolis but other than that straight down, still big points deducted for Mutiny prediction.

Mountain West
1) Washington
2) Las Vegas
3) Portland
4) Los Angeles

Orker did better than the algorithm by predicting LA last, not an opinion shared by many and by commenting that Washington should run away.

Colonial
1) New York
2) Washington DC
3) Philadelphia
4) Boston
5) Montreal

Philadelphia obviously did much better, got the bottom two right though.

Ohio Valley
1) Cincinnati
2) St Louis
3) Pittsburgh
4) Indianapolis
5) Detroit
6) Cleveland

Where the algorithm did the worst, Orker did the best.  Ohio Valley division was good for Orker by predicting pretty much straight down except for Cleveland.

Texas
1) Austin
2) Dallas
3) Houston
4) El Paso
5) San Antonio

Points for getting Austin right, but also big points for commenting that El Paso could sneak (though wrong in saying they look weaker than the others)  in and that the division might be close in the middle.  Original Comment :
The Texas Division looks to be the most competitive and interesting.  Austin, Dallas, and Houston all look like they may be able to take it.  Plus El Paso could sneak in and be competitive too but they look a shade weaker.  1993 could shape to be quite an interesting year.  In contrast, the Mountain West looks to be the most boring, as Washington should dominate it as they have for 22 years

Checking on the algorithm

November 23rd, 2008 by Admirals GM

Here were the 1993 predictions...

 

AL SUNBELT
1. Carolina
2. Miami
3. Atlanta
4. New Orleans
5. Memphis
 

Obviously, it way overrated Carolina.  But aside from that, everything else was more-or-less on track.  Will be interesting to see how Carolina does in 1994.

 

AL PLAINS
1. Omaha
2. Kansas City*
3. Denver
4. Minneapolis
5. Chicago
(* Wild Card)
 

Got Minneapolis wrong, but still did think they would be in the Wild Card race.

AL MOUNTAIN WEST
1. Washington
2. Los Angeles
3. Las Vegas
4. Portland
 

Didn't see Portland coming.  Again, the algorithm does the worst job on predicting young teams without track records.

NL COLONIAL
1. New York
2. Philadelphia*
3. Washington D.C.
4. Boston
5. Montreal
(* Wild Card)
 

Got everything right but the order between New York and Philadelphia.  Even then, it did correctly predict that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, which I wouldn't have otherwise thought.

NL OHIO VALLEY
1. Detroit -- TIE--
1. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland
5. St. Louis
6. Indianapolis
 

This has to be the algorithm's worst job by far.  St. Louis 5th?  This is an especially odd prediction, given that the Savages were the defending division winners and didn't really lose anyone (except Joe Murphy).  A more conventional pick would have been better here.  Also, Detroit 1st?  The Cruisers ended up last and lost over 100 games.  The one saving grace here is that the algorithm did see Cincinnati tying for the division lead, and it wasn't otherwise obvious that they were posed for a breakthrough year.

NL TEXAS
1. Houston
2. Austin
3. El Paso
4. Dallas
5. San Antonio
 

In the algorithm's defense, Houston did suffer some pretty devastating injuries this year.  Give it a mulligan on the Houston pick, and the order in the Texas Division is otherwise right.

All-in-all, not an especially great year for the algorithm, but not horrible either.  We can already say that it's World Series pick is wrong -- New York over Washington.

1993 Official Miami Banditos NL Awards Vote

November 24th, 2008 by Banditos GM

NL MVP
1) Keith Whitfield, ELP
2) Shannon Townsend, NY
3) Joe Warren, AUS

Notes:  We just voted for who we thought had the best years overall, with the exception of perhaps not including Campbell.  We may get flack for including Townsend but statistically he's one of the best players in baseball, let alone the NL.  So what if he was surrounded by a bunch of losers, he singlehandedly carried the NY offense.  Joe Warren, we felt, is good but is more of a sentimental pick and although we wish him best, not at the expense of other player's recognition.

NL Bob Gibson Award
1) Tom Campbell, PIT
2) Victorio Aguirre, STL
3) Hee-seop Pak, CIN

Notes:  Campbell had an amazing year and at age 36.  The fact that he didn't allow a HR all year is mind boggling.  1993 in general has been quite the year, this will be the year that the EWB purists say everything changed.  Aguirre was an easy 2nd to me, he dominated most pitching categories. He's out with a herniated disc for the next 6-7 months and just laying in bed, that makes us more sympathetic to him as well.

NL Angel Rosa Award
1)  Justin Johnston, BOS
2)  Victorio Aguirre, STL
3)  Denny Turner, STL

Notes:  Johnston, no other choice, enough said.  We are flabbergasted that Aguirre was left off the Angel Rosa Ballot, we definitely believe he is a worthy candidate and gave him our second 2nd place vote.  Denny Turner edges out Albert Perez for 3rd place by virtue of having a better team.

NL Fireman Award
1)  Gary Olson, NY
2)  Reynaldo Salinas, AUS
3)  Cesar Mejia, DC

Notes:  This was a really, really weak class regardless of category.  Olson appeared to be the best, only trailing in saves.  Really I don't have much to comment on this vote.

NL Manager of the Year
1)  Ricardo Pacheco, AUS
2)  Armando Ortiz, PHI
3)  Salvador Villalobos, CIN

Notes:  A competitive category with any of the candidates able to make a compelling case.  We chose Pacheco because win it comes down to it, he wins.  A World Series last year, second straight Texas Division Pennant, another trip to the playoffs.  What more can you ask for?  Ortiz and Villalobos took teams to a new height and made the playoffs.

NL Executive of the Year
1)  Dan Alexander, CIN
2)  Travis Garner, AUS
3)  Dave Baker, ELP

Notes:  Alexander deserves recognition because this team's success is a reflection of the organization's scouting and player development as a whole and with Alexander the buck stops there.  So he should also get the credit when they win.  Cincinnati has been a team coming, this year looks like it could finally be theirs.  Garner did everything right to keep his team lean and hungry, ready to compete for another World Series.  When most will sit tight with a Championship team, Garner made bold moves at the risk of his job.  Pretty admirable.  Dave Baker's many big moves are finally coming into fruition and look successful.  We're not sold on Dennis, at least not this year.

Washington 1993 NL Awards Ballot

November 24th, 2008 by Admirals GM

My NL Ballot

 

MVP

 

1. Joe Warren

2. Keith Whitfield

3. Justin Johnston

 

Analysis: I was really pretty torn about hot to vote here.  What ultimately persuaded me was this.  Austin had one bad month all year long: August, when they went 9-19.  Not coincidentally, it was primarily in August that Warren missed his time (2 weeks) to injury.  And in fact, during the first 2 weeks of August when Warren was injured, Austin went 2-13.  I already kind of wanted to vote for Warren anyway, but this pushed me over the top.  I could also very easily see votes for Whitfield or Johnston though.  Incidentally, even though Mike voted for Warren too, the award is still very much up for grabs, especially given that a computer vote for Warren is extremeley unlikely

 

 

Gibson

 

1. Tom Campbell

2. Hee-seop Pak

3. Luis Altagracia

 

 

Fireman of the Year.

 

1. Reynaldo Salinas

2. Gary Olson

3. Pablo Mejia

 

 

Manager of the Year

 

1. Armando Ortiz

2. Ricardo Pacheco

3. Cliff Sparks

 

Executive of the year

 

1. Travis Garner

2. Dave Baker

3. Dan Alexander

Omaha 1993 NL Awards Ballot

November 23rd, 2008 by Wolverines GM

NL MVP

 

1) Warren

2) Whitfield

3) Johnston

 

Gibson

 

1) Campbell

2) Pak

3) Aguire

 

Fireman

 

1) Salinas

2) Olson

3) Mejia

 

Manager

 

1) Ortiz

2) Cabral

3) Villalobos

 

Executive

 

1) Dennis

2) Baker

3) Garner